期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 节后铜铝增仓上行 核心观点 沪铜 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 今日沪铜高开高走，持仓量持续上升。宏观层面，节后归来市场 氛围较好，有色普涨。产业层面，现货贴水转为升水，电解铜社库 持续上升。节后铜价再度站上 10 万关口，资金涌入明显，上行动能 较强，关注前期高点压力。 沪铝 今日铝价早盘高开高走，持仓量上升明显，日内涨超 3%。宏观层 面，节后归来市场氛围较好，有色普涨。产业层面，高铝价抑制下 游消费，产业被动跟随，电解铝社库上升明显。近期铝价表现强势 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜镍增仓上行 核心观点 有色金属 | 日报 沪铜 今日沪铜增仓上行，主力期价站上 9.4 万关口，伦铜逼近 1.2 万 美元关口。宏观层面，日元加息落地，市场风险偏好及流动性均有 所恢复。产业层面，下游观望氛围较浓。据 SMM 了解中国铜冶炼厂代 表与 Antofagasta 敲定 2026 年铜精矿长单加工费 Benchmark 为 0 美 元/吨与 0 美分/磅。技术上，关注伦铜 1.2 万关口多空博弈。 沪铝 周五夜 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/04 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/11/27 100 2744 115035 35873 -1077.91 56.44 32.0 48.0 16.56 157175 6075 2025/11/28 115 3017 115035 35244 -1071.50 -68.33 32.0 48.0 44.69 159425 6575 2025/12/01 100 3573 115035 31495 -1332.99 -112.30 31.0 47.0 69.10 159425 6475 2025/12/02 120 3264 115035 30568 -1557.87 -95.77 38.0 48.0 69.18 161800 6300 2025/12/03 155 3604 115035 28969 -1649.33 -113.35 38.0 48.0 88.38 162150 56875 变 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall non - ferrous metals market is in a state of adjustment, with different trends for each metal. Some metals are affected by factors such as inventory changes, policy uncertainties, and overseas market conditions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday saw Shanghai copper trading with a short - position and a negative line in a volatile manner. SMM spot copper was reported at 86,435 yuan, with premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong at 80 and 55 yuan respectively. SMM social inventory increased by 700 tons to 194,500 tons this week. Wait for the US September non - farm payroll data at night. The Fed meeting minutes showed large differences, and the probability of a December interest rate cut dropped to 30%. Hold short positions with a stop - loss at 87,000 yuan [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum showed a weak and volatile trend today. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China slightly narrowed to - 10 yuan, - 100 yuan, and - 125 yuan respectively. The non - ferrous metals market as a whole has been adjusting with reduced positions recently. The short - term fundamentals of the aluminum market are average, and the inventory build - up indicates poor performance. The adjustment may continue. Pay attention to the support of the middle Bollinger Band. The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,800 yuan today. Scrap aluminum supplies are tight, and the tax rate policy adjustment is still unclear. Both industry inventory and exchange warehouse receipts are at high levels. Cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price, and the spread with AL may narrow. Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and exchange warehouse receipts are rising. The oversupply situation is hard to change, and there is no movement during the heating season. Spot indices in various regions dropped by 5 yuan today. Alumina is likely to operate weakly before large - scale production cuts occur [3] Zinc - The impact of environmental protection in the north has been lifted, and downstream purchasing has accelerated. SMM zinc social inventory decreased to 152,700 tons, while LME zinc inventory increased to 45,000 tons. LME zinc broke through the support level and declined, but the tight overseas spot market still supports a high 0 - 3 month spot premium of $152.14 per ton. The split structure of domestic and overseas inventories is gradually being repaired, and the three - month import loss of zinc has narrowed to around 3,000 yuan per ton. There is still profit space for the cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy on the futures market. Both domestic and overseas mine TC have decreased, and the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices has improved. Shanghai zinc is expected to stabilize above the 60 - day moving average and is likely to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan per ton [4] Lead - After the lead price correction, downstream buyers were active. After the delivery, the SHFE lead warehouse receipts gradually decreased to 30,600 tons, and SMM lead social inventory decreased to 37,700 tons. The low inventory level supports the futures price. SMM 1 lead has a discount of 110 yuan per ton to the nearby contract. The profit of recycled lead is under pressure, and the refined - scrap spread has narrowed to 25 yuan per ton. LME lead inventory is at a high level of 264,000 tons, with a 0 - 3 month discount of $27.39 per ton. The overseas market's oversupply pressure remains unchanged, and LME lead still has room for further correction. There is an expectation that the lead ingot import window will open, and Shanghai lead lacks the momentum to rebound. The lower support is tentatively seen at 17,000 yuan per ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel opened high and closed low, and market trading was dull. After the US government ended the shutdown, the positive news was exhausted, and the market began to worry about the stability of overseas liquidity. Pay attention to whether the Fed will take actions to ease the liquidity pressure recently. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 3,900 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 500 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 175 yuan. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel declined, and the price of high - nickel iron is quoted at 906 yuan per nickel point. The support brought by the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, which may drag down the overall price level of the nickel industry chain. Pure nickel inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 53,100 tons, nickel iron inventory increased by 500 tons to 29,600 tons, and stainless steel inventory increased by 6,700 tons to 952,000 tons. The bullish factors for Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the nickel price is in a weak trend with a downward - shifting center of gravity [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed with a negative line and reduced positions. There is an environmental risk in a rare earth and tin mining area in Malaysia, and the mining area is under rectification. Due to the lack of specific data, the current impact on the tin market is limited. The domestic spot tin price remained unchanged at 291,500 yuan, with a discount of 100 yuan to the delivery month. The resumption rhythm of low - grade mines and the efficiency of capacity rectification of Indonesia's PT Timah are the keys to deepening the tight supply in the future. Hold long - term short positions with a stop - loss at 295,000 yuan [8] Lithium Carbonate - There is a battle at the integer - level price of lithium carbonate, and market trading is active. Downstream material factories are actively producing, and about 20 lithium iron phosphate enterprises have reached full - capacity operation. This phenomenon is expected to continue until the end of the year, mainly because downstream battery cell factories have a large increase in orders: the pure - electric heavy - truck project is continuously advancing, the traditional peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" for cars, and the shortage of energy - storage battery cells. The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons again, and traders increased their inventory. The sentiment in the middle - stream has improved, and the spot market shows some support. The latest quotation of Australian ore is $1,055. The lithium carbonate futures price is strengthening, inventory is continuously decreasing, and downstream demand is strong. Technically, it has broken through the range. Adopt a strategy of buying on dips [9] Industrial Silicon - After a short - term upward rush, the industrial silicon futures decreased in positions and declined today. The spot price increased slightly by 100 yuan per ton, and the price of downstream organic silicon DMC remained stable at 13,100 yuan per ton (SMM). Based on the "anti - involution" principle, the organic silicon industry plans to promote a joint emission - reduction plan in December, which is expected to affect the demand for industrial silicon by about 4,000 tons (corresponding to a reduction of 8,000 tons of DMC production), which is more cautious than the previous 30% reduction expectation. Overall, industrial silicon is in a technical correction in the short term, and the price is still expected to rise with the pricing repair expectation of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures declined synchronously with industrial silicon. The spot price of N - type polysilicon for re - feeding fluctuated within a narrow range, quoted by SMM at 49,700 - 54,900 yuan per ton. The overall demand in the photovoltaic market is weak, the marginal decline in terminal purchasing is obvious, and there is no intention to purchase domestic products overseas. There is still an expectation of reducing production in the component sector in December, and the inventory pressure in the battery cell sector is large. Although the polysilicon industry has cut production, the actual improvement in supply - demand is limited, and the price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - farm data in the US is poor, but the expected end of the government shutdown and improved inflation data in China support copper prices. Despite short - term demand suppression, in the long run, due to supply constraints and seasonal demand, the copper price center is expected to rise [3]. - For zinc, there are both bullish and bearish factors. With the expectation of production cuts in November and weakening downstream demand, the upward momentum is not strong, and attention should be paid to macro - driving and overseas support [4]. - The aluminum market has strong capital inflows, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Alumina is expected to stabilize and rebound, and the cast - aluminum alloy is expected to strengthen [5]. - The continuous decline in Indonesian tin exports has raised concerns about supply, and it is recommended to take a bullish view on tin [6]. - For lead, although supply is improving, there is still some support from overseas prices. Short - term strength is expected, but the upside space needs to be cautious [7]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak position. Nickel has high inventory pressure, and stainless steel has a weak supply - demand situation, with a slow downward trend in the price center [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Advice - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous sector is in an upward trend. The expected end of the US government shutdown and the improvement of China's PPI have boosted market sentiment. However, the market is also concerned about real - demand. Copper, aluminum, and tin are relatively strong, while nickel and stainless steel are at a low level [11]. - **Strategy for Each Variety** - **Copper**: With improved market sentiment and supply constraints, and entering the seasonal demand peak, it is recommended to gradually go long on dips. The upper pressure range is 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Zinc**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. It is recommended to be bullish on dips. The upper pressure is around 22,800 - 23,000, and the lower support is around 22,300 - 22,400 [4]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, it is recommended to hold long positions. Alumina is recommended to be observed, and the cast - aluminum alloy is recommended to be bullish [5]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to take a bullish view. The upper pressure range is 300,000 - 310,000, and the lower support range is 260,000 - 270,000 [6]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to use a covered - call strategy. The short - term lower support is around 17,300 - 17,400, and the upper pressure is around 17,800 - 18,000 [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips. Stainless steel is in a volatile range, with the lower support around 12,400 - 12,500 and the upper pressure around 12,800 - 13,000 [8]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Prices and Changes**: Copper closed at 86,840 with a 0.24% increase; zinc at 22,680 with a 0.02% increase; aluminum at 21,880 with a 0.99% increase; alumina at 2821 with a 0.18% increase; tin at 292,440 with a 1.48% increase; lead at 17,660 with a 1.26% increase; nickel at 118,710 with a 0.56% decrease; stainless steel at 12,425 with a 0.32% decrease; and cast - aluminum alloy at 21,245 with a 0.97% increase [15][16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different net long - short positions and changes. For example, the net long - short position of沪银(AG2512) is a strong long position, and the net long - short position of沪锡(SN2512) is a strong short position [19]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of copper is around 87,000 yuan/ton with a small increase; zinc is around 22,500 - 22,600 yuan/ton with a slight decrease; aluminum is around 21,500 - 21,700 yuan/ton with a small increase; alumina is around 2800 - 2870 yuan/ton; tin is around 290,000 - 291,000 yuan/ton with an increase; lead is around 17,150 yuan/ton with an increase; nickel is around 119,000 yuan/ton with a decrease; stainless steel is around 12,700 yuan/ton; and the cast - aluminum alloy is around 21,400 yuan/ton [20][21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides various charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [24][27][29]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report presents charts related to the arbitrage of each non - ferrous metal, including the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis, and spread [56][57][59]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report shows charts of historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for each non - ferrous metal [71][73][76].

Report Overview - Report Date: November 5, 2025 [4] - Report Type: Daily Report on Non-ferrous Metals [4] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views Copper - Today, copper prices dived in the morning and stabilized and rebounded during the day, with a slight decline in open interest. Recently, the global macro - atmosphere has weakened, putting significant pressure on copper prices, but the intraday market sentiment has improved. At the industrial level, as copper prices declined, the downstream restocking willingness has recovered, and the spot premium has strengthened. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at 85,000 [6]. Aluminum - Today, aluminum prices first declined and then rose, with a decrease in open interest, indicating an increase in the short - term willingness of long - position holders to close their positions. Recently, the macro - atmosphere has weakened, and the non - ferrous sector has declined collectively, but aluminum prices are relatively resistant to decline. At the industrial level, the inventory of downstream aluminum rods has decreased, while the inventory of mid - stream electrolytic aluminum has slightly increased. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [7]. Nickel - Today, nickel prices first declined and then rose, regaining the 120,000 mark in the afternoon. Recently, non - ferrous metals have seen an increase in open interest during the decline and a decrease during the rebound, showing a significant difference in volume - price relationship compared with copper and aluminum. The weakness at the industrial level has made funds more inclined to short - allocate nickel to hedge long positions in non - ferrous metals. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 120,000 mark [8]. 3. Industry Dynamics Copper - On November 5, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic copper was reported at 85,335 yuan/ton. According to copper enameled wire enterprises, as copper prices have fallen, the downstream order volume has increased recently, and the enameled wire orders have improved compared with last week [10]. Nickel - On November 5, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 119,400 - 122,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 120,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. 4. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc. [12][13][14] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, aluminum rod inventory, etc. [26][28][30] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [39][41][44]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: On October 28, 2025, Shanghai copper showed weak oscillations in the morning and a sharp decline in the afternoon, with the main contract price dropping to around 87,000. The macro - environment turned bearish in the afternoon, leading to a general decline in the non - ferrous sector. Copper decreased with reduced positions, indicating strong short - term profit - taking intentions of long - positions. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **沪铝**: On the same day, Shanghai aluminum also had weak oscillations in the morning and a sharp decline in the afternoon. Affected by the bearish macro - environment in the afternoon and the general decline of the non - ferrous sector, aluminum decreased with reduced positions, and short - term long - positions had strong profit - taking intentions. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average [7]. - **沪镍**: Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly on this day, with a significant decline accompanied by increased positions at the end of the session. Previously, when the macro - environment improved, non - ferrous metals prices rose, but nickel only had a weak rebound with reduced positions. With the macro - environment turning bearish today, nickel prices declined with increased positions. In terms of funds, nickel is still an under - allocated short position in the non - ferrous sector. Technically, attention should be paid to the low in October for support [8]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to Industrial Online data, in September 2025, China's household air - conditioner production was 10.567 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%; sales were 10.884 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. Among them, domestic sales were 5.949 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%; exports were 4.935 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1% [10]. - **Nickel**: On October 28, 2025, the price range of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,700 - 123,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,200 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 300 - 100 yuan/ton. Due to the change of quotation month, both premiums decreased [10]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides multiple copper - related charts, including copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [11][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: Related charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, aluminum rod inventory, etc [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Charts involve nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [37][39][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **沪铜**: Last night, Shanghai copper hit bottom and rebounded, and today it oscillated upward to regain losses, with little change in open interest. The decline in copper price last night was mainly affected by the sharp drop in gold price, but the overall trend was resilient. The downstream industry remained in a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, and the spot premium continued to weaken. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 85,000 mark [6]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly, and the open interest continued to rise. In the short term, as the copper price stabilizes, the non - ferrous sector operates strongly. The downstream industry makes rigid purchases, and there is no momentum to reduce the low - level inventory. Technically, the aluminum price faces pressure at the 21,000 mark [7]. - **沪镍**: Today, the nickel price hit bottom and rebounded in the morning and oscillated strongly during the day. In the short term, as the copper price stabilizes, the non - ferrous sector operates strongly. The nickel price is at a low level since September, and short - covering willingness is strong. The industrial pressure remains, and the nickel price has weak rebound momentum. Continuous attention should be paid to the low - level technical support [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Citi is bullish on copper and aluminum in the medium term. The copper price will reach $12,000 per ton in the next 6 - 12 months, and the aluminum price will reach $3,500 per ton by 2027 [10]. - **Nickel**: On October 22, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,700 - 123,500 yuan per ton, with an average price of 122,100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 400 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,400 - 2,600 yuan per ton, with an average premium of 2,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan per ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, aluminum monthly spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum rod inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][39].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a long/short position, with a driving force for an upward/downward trend, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows a complex situation with different trends for each metal. Some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and policy expectations, and their prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - to - medium term [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper showed a positive line oscillation, regaining part of the intraday gains. The spot copper was reported at 78,830 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium slightly shrank to 150 yuan. Overnight, the August manufacturing PMI indices in Europe and the US were better than expected, driving the London copper to rebound. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of the MA60 moving average, and short positions above 79,000 yuan should be held [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated, with a spot premium of 30 yuan in East China. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 11,000 tons and 8,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. The downstream start - up was stable, and the inventory was likely to remain at a low level this year. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. Alumina was in a weak oscillation, with support at the 3,000 - yuan level [3] Zinc - Shanghai zinc retraced to the previous low. The downstream's buying sentiment improved at low prices, and the SMM zinc social inventory slightly decreased to 132,900 tons. The short - term was regarded as an oscillation, and the medium - term was to maintain a short - allocation idea on rebounds [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel pulled back, and the market trading was mediocre. The stainless steel social inventory had decreased for six consecutive times. However, the downstream terminals' acceptance of high - priced stainless steel sources was still poor. Shanghai nickel was in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and short positions should be actively entered [7] Tin - Shanghai tin showed a negative line oscillation above the MA60 moving average. After the centralized delivery on the third Wednesday of LME, the 0 - 3 month shifted to a discount of 2 dollars, and the inventory was at a low level. Short - term long positions should be held based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell below 80,000 yuan, and the market trading was active. The market was regarded as an oscillation, and risk control should be done well [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose slightly. The current market supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and the price was expected to maintain an oscillation [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. The current spot price corresponded to the lower edge of the oscillation range, and the upper space still depended on the implementation progress of the production capacity management policy. The operation idea was to go long on dips [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading floor operability [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, similar to aluminum, a balanced short - term trend and low operability [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆, also a balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, slightly bearish bias with limited trading floor operability [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and low operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, slightly bearish bias with limited trading floor operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] Report's Core View - Different metals in the non - ferrous metals market have various price trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper closed with a positive trend, with the spot copper price rising to 79,475 yuan. There was a premium in Shanghai and Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference was restored to 1,100 yuan. Due to the lower - than - expected US CPI in July, the dollar weakened. It is difficult for copper prices to effectively break through 79,500 yuan, and short positions are recommended on rallies [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with the spot discount in East China narrowing to 20 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory continued to accumulate, and downstream开工 was in the off - season. The peak of aluminum ingot inventory may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to be low this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price rising to 19,900 yuan. Alumina's operating capacity was at a historical high, the total industry inventory increased, and the market was in an oversupply state. There was adjustment pressure after yesterday's news hype [2] Zinc - The average price of SMM 0 zinc was 22,560 yuan/ton, with a discount to the near - month contract. Downstream demand was weak, and the term structure of Shanghai zinc was flattening. The domestic refined zinc inventory may continue to rise, and Shanghai zinc is expected to face pressure on rebounds. LME zinc inventory decreased, and the external market was relatively strong, making it difficult to open the import window. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - The refined and scrap lead prices were the same, and the cost support was strong. Consumption had no obvious improvement, and the upward momentum of lead prices was insufficient. Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate widely, and long positions are recommended to be held with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market was active. The domestic anti - dumping theme was coming to an end, and nickel with a relatively poor fundamental situation will return to its fundamentals. The inventory of nickel iron was basically stable, and the inventory of pure nickel and stainless steel decreased, but the overall inventory level was still high. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short positions are recommended [6] Tin - Shanghai tin closed slightly lower at around 270,000 yuan, with a premium to the delivery month. The short - term upward trend was relatively stable. The low inventory in the external market provided support, and the domestic high social inventory had the motivation to reduce. Short - term long positions are recommended at low prices [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuated, and the market was active. The trading lacked a clear direction, and the long - liquidation was obvious. The spot price was 81,000 yuan. The downstream inquiry was active, and the spot market transaction improved. The total market inventory decreased slightly, and there was obvious transfer of goods ownership. Risk management should be noted due to abnormal price fluctuations [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon decreased with increasing positions, closing at 8,600 yuan/ton. The self - discipline of production capacity was difficult, and the sentiment was affected by related varieties. The inventory in the delivery warehouse increased significantly, and there was still hedging pressure at high levels. However, the expected increase in polysilicon production provided some demand support. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,300 - 9,000 yuan/ton in the short term [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon decreased with decreasing positions, closing at 51,290 yuan/ton. The N - type re - feed price was stable. The production in August was significantly increased, and the inventory increase restricted the spot price increase. The PS2511 contract is expected to operate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and short - selling at the lower end of the range is recommended with caution [10]