Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a long/short position, with a driving force for an upward/downward trend, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows a complex situation with different trends for each metal. Some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and policy expectations, and their prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - to - medium term [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper showed a positive line oscillation, regaining part of the intraday gains. The spot copper was reported at 78,830 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium slightly shrank to 150 yuan. Overnight, the August manufacturing PMI indices in Europe and the US were better than expected, driving the London copper to rebound. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of the MA60 moving average, and short positions above 79,000 yuan should be held [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated, with a spot premium of 30 yuan in East China. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 11,000 tons and 8,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. The downstream start - up was stable, and the inventory was likely to remain at a low level this year. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. Alumina was in a weak oscillation, with support at the 3,000 - yuan level [3] Zinc - Shanghai zinc retraced to the previous low. The downstream's buying sentiment improved at low prices, and the SMM zinc social inventory slightly decreased to 132,900 tons. The short - term was regarded as an oscillation, and the medium - term was to maintain a short - allocation idea on rebounds [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel pulled back, and the market trading was mediocre. The stainless steel social inventory had decreased for six consecutive times. However, the downstream terminals' acceptance of high - priced stainless steel sources was still poor. Shanghai nickel was in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and short positions should be actively entered [7] Tin - Shanghai tin showed a negative line oscillation above the MA60 moving average. After the centralized delivery on the third Wednesday of LME, the 0 - 3 month shifted to a discount of 2 dollars, and the inventory was at a low level. Short - term long positions should be held based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell below 80,000 yuan, and the market trading was active. The market was regarded as an oscillation, and risk control should be done well [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose slightly. The current market supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and the price was expected to maintain an oscillation [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. The current spot price corresponded to the lower edge of the oscillation range, and the upper space still depended on the implementation progress of the production capacity management policy. The operation idea was to go long on dips [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading floor operability [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, similar to aluminum, a balanced short - term trend and low operability [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆, also a balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, slightly bearish bias with limited trading floor operability [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and low operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, slightly bearish bias with limited trading floor operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] Report's Core View - Different metals in the non - ferrous metals market have various price trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper closed with a positive trend, with the spot copper price rising to 79,475 yuan. There was a premium in Shanghai and Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference was restored to 1,100 yuan. Due to the lower - than - expected US CPI in July, the dollar weakened. It is difficult for copper prices to effectively break through 79,500 yuan, and short positions are recommended on rallies [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with the spot discount in East China narrowing to 20 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory continued to accumulate, and downstream开工 was in the off - season. The peak of aluminum ingot inventory may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to be low this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price rising to 19,900 yuan. Alumina's operating capacity was at a historical high, the total industry inventory increased, and the market was in an oversupply state. There was adjustment pressure after yesterday's news hype [2] Zinc - The average price of SMM 0 zinc was 22,560 yuan/ton, with a discount to the near - month contract. Downstream demand was weak, and the term structure of Shanghai zinc was flattening. The domestic refined zinc inventory may continue to rise, and Shanghai zinc is expected to face pressure on rebounds. LME zinc inventory decreased, and the external market was relatively strong, making it difficult to open the import window. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - The refined and scrap lead prices were the same, and the cost support was strong. Consumption had no obvious improvement, and the upward momentum of lead prices was insufficient. Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate widely, and long positions are recommended to be held with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market was active. The domestic anti - dumping theme was coming to an end, and nickel with a relatively poor fundamental situation will return to its fundamentals. The inventory of nickel iron was basically stable, and the inventory of pure nickel and stainless steel decreased, but the overall inventory level was still high. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short positions are recommended [6] Tin - Shanghai tin closed slightly lower at around 270,000 yuan, with a premium to the delivery month. The short - term upward trend was relatively stable. The low inventory in the external market provided support, and the domestic high social inventory had the motivation to reduce. Short - term long positions are recommended at low prices [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuated, and the market was active. The trading lacked a clear direction, and the long - liquidation was obvious. The spot price was 81,000 yuan. The downstream inquiry was active, and the spot market transaction improved. The total market inventory decreased slightly, and there was obvious transfer of goods ownership. Risk management should be noted due to abnormal price fluctuations [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon decreased with increasing positions, closing at 8,600 yuan/ton. The self - discipline of production capacity was difficult, and the sentiment was affected by related varieties. The inventory in the delivery warehouse increased significantly, and there was still hedging pressure at high levels. However, the expected increase in polysilicon production provided some demand support. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,300 - 9,000 yuan/ton in the short term [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon decreased with decreasing positions, closing at 51,290 yuan/ton. The N - type re - feed price was stable. The production in August was significantly increased, and the inventory increase restricted the spot price increase. The PS2511 contract is expected to operate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and short - selling at the lower end of the range is recommended with caution [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ (White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the market) [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ (White stars) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not rated [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ (White stars) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ (Three stars) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Three stars) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - economy, supply - demand fundamentals, and technical trends. Different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] - Some metals are in a state of high inventory, which affects their price trends and investment opportunities. For example, lithium carbonate has high inventory, and its price rebound is not stable [9] - Market sentiment and external events also have an impact on metal prices. For example, the US dollar index, fiscal policies, and manufacturing PMI data can all affect the price of non - ferrous metals [2][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper in the afternoon session increased in position and rose to 80,600 yuan. The spot copper was reported at 80,205 yuan, with a premium in Shanghai of 200 yuan and in Guangdong rising to 90 yuan. The refined - scrap price difference was still 2,100 yuan. In July, the LME Hong Kong warehouse will be put into use, and attention should be paid to the logistics impact. Technically, the short - term upward trend of Shanghai copper may reach above 81,000 yuan. Long - term trend trading is still recommended to focus on short - selling at high levels [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated today. The spot premium in East China continued to decline by 30 yuan to 40 yuan, the processing fee of aluminum rods in South China fell to negative, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to increase slightly. There are signs of advanced terminal consumption and off - season negative feedback. The recent improvement in macro - risk appetite has promoted the strength of non - ferrous metals. The position of the Shanghai aluminum index is at a high level in recent years, indicating great market divergence. Be vigilant against the risk of a phased correction. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated narrowly, and the Baotai ADC12 quotation was stable at 19,500 yuan. The peak - season contract maintained a certain premium. The spot price difference between aluminum and cast aluminum alloy is large, but the price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 only fluctuates around 400 yuan. If it expands, consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy. Recently, the spot transaction price of alumina is 3,000 - 3,100 yuan. The price of Guinea ore has stabilized at 75 US dollars, corresponding to the cost in Shanxi of around 3,000 yuan. The domestic operating capacity has increased for six consecutive weeks to over 93 million tons, and the spot liquidity has improved. In the context of oversupply, the futures market fluctuates weakly, and it is advisable to short at high levels [3] Zinc - Trump promoted the "big and beautiful" bill, the US dollar index continued to decline, and the external metal market was strong, which pulled up the domestic market. The fundamentals of zinc still show an increase in supply and weak demand. The zinc price first declined and then rose during the day, and closed down overall. The weighted position decreased by more than 6,000 lots to 268,800 lots, and the funds flowed out by 184 million yuan. The 600,000 - ton zinc smelter in Huoshaoyun has started feeding production, and the new production capacities of Wanyang and Yunnan Copper have gradually come into production. There is still pressure on the domestic supply side, and zinc is still mainly recommended for short - selling on rebounds [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded and fluctuated at a high level, and the market trading was active. In terms of spot, the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,600 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel was 150 yuan. The loading progress of nickel mines in the Philippines has limited impact on the supply of the ore end, and the calming of the situation in Indonesia is still the main pressure on the ore end. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is quoted at 913 yuan per nickel point, and the support from upstream prices has weakened significantly recently. In terms of inventory, the nickel - iron inventory increased to 35,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased to 38,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory remained at a high level of around one million tons, with the latest report at 992,000 tons. Technically, Shanghai nickel is at the end of the rebound, waiting for the short - selling opportunity to mature [7] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin was driven by the sentiment in the copper market at the end of the session, and increased in position and rose nearly 270,000 yuan in the short term. Today's spot tin was 266,500 yuan, with a premium of 110 yuan over the delivery month. The tin market is in the off - season of consumption, and the price range of 268,000 - 272,000 yuan is considered a relatively high - level area. Contracts in the far - month are recommended for short - selling [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuated and rebounded, and the market trading was active. The total market inventory continued to rise to the recent highest level of 137,000 tons. Downstream replenishment increased by 300 tons to 40,635 tons, and traders continued to replenish inventory by 1,000 tons to 37,000 tons. The confidence of downstream enterprises has significantly increased. It is understood that the downstream production schedule in July is relatively strong, and the factor of rushing for exports still exists. Technically, lithium carbonate is in a rebound, but the current inventory is still high, and the ore price is also in the rebound period. The rebound of the futures price is not stable. However, from another perspective, the industrial chain still needs time to digest the new price level around 60,000 yuan, and it is regarded as a short - term fluctuation [9] Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon significantly dropped to 7,765 yuan/ton, and the market trading cooled down. As Yunnan entered the wet season, many industrial silicon plants started to resume production today. At the same time, there is a new expectation of resuming production from a large factory in Xinjiang after the rumor of production reduction. There are frequent fluctuations on the supply side. After the price reached the 8,000 - yuan/ton mark, the chasing - up momentum of long - position funds weakened. Coupled with the possible entry of some hedging funds, the futures price quickly dropped. In addition, the theme of "anti - involution" has once again sparked heated discussions recently, and the market's expectation of supply - side regulation policies has increased. In summary, the price of industrial silicon is at a low level, with a mixture of long and short themes, and its trend is expected to be mainly volatile [10] Polysilicon - The futures price of polysilicon dropped significantly to 32,700 yuan/ton, and the market trading cooled down, which was affected to some extent by the callback of the industrial silicon futures. The weak reality of polysilicon continues. In July, downstream enterprises continued to revise down their monthly production schedules, and the total inventory of polysilicon remained at a high level of 270,000 tons. The increase in supply from leading enterprises is not clear for the time being. However, from the perspective of the futures price, it is still in a state of discount. Coupled with the recent resurgence of the "anti - involution" theme and the increasing market expectation of supply - side regulation policies, the downward space is still relatively limited, and the trend is expected to maintain a volatile state [11]