期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 3 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色午后企稳回升 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价触底回升，午后增仓上行明显，主力期价逼近 10.5 万关 口。从盘面来看，前期悲观情绪得到释放，午后白银打开跌停板， 市场氛围有所回暖，有色普涨。产业层面，随着前期铜价下挫至 10 万关口，产业补库意愿有所上升，给予铜价支撑，午后国内 200 万吨 冶炼项目已被叫停的消息一定程度上推动了铜价上行。技术上，铜 价再度上升至 1 月震荡区间上沿，可关注该位置压力。 沪铝 今日铝价偏强震荡， ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Copper**: After the holiday, SHFE copper opened higher and moved up, with the open interest rising continuously. The market sentiment was good after the holiday and non-ferrous metals generally increased. The spot discount turned into a premium, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper continued to rise. The copper price stood above the 100,000 yuan mark again, with obvious capital inflows and strong upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [6]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price opened higher and moved up in the morning, with a significant increase in open interest and an intraday increase of more than 3%. The market sentiment was good after the holiday and non-ferrous metals generally increased. High aluminum prices inhibited downstream consumption, and the industry followed passively. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly. The recent strong performance of the aluminum price was partly due to the loose macro - environment and the expectation of aluminum replacing copper. When copper was strong, the copper - aluminum ratio began to decline from a high level before the holiday. In the short term, the aluminum price approached the 24,000 yuan mark, the high levels in 2021 and 2022, and continuous attention should be paid to technical pressure [7]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price rose first and then fell, and then the main contract price fluctuated narrowly around 134,000 yuan, with the open interest rising continuously during the day. Since late December, the nickel price has rebounded from the 110,000 yuan mark to the 130,000 yuan mark, mainly due to the policy expectations in Indonesia leading to a decline in the supply expectation in 2026. In the short term, the nickel price increased with rising open interest, reversing the downward trend. Technically, SHFE nickel has reached the rebound high in March 2025, with certain technical pressure and intensified long - short competition [8]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On January 5, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 271,400 tons, an increase of 47,100 tons compared with the 29th and an increase of 24,300 tons compared with the 31st [10]. - **Aluminum**: On January 5, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 703,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons compared with the 29th and an increase of 91,000 tons compared with the 25th [10]. - **Nickel**: On January 5, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 133,700 - 142,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 138,150 yuan/ton, a rise of 600 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 7,000 - 7,800 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 7,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. Group 4: Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [25][27][29]. - **Nickel**: There are charts on nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Shanghai Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper increased in volume and price, with the main contract price breaking through the 94,000 RMB mark, and LME copper approaching the $12,000 mark. Macroscopically, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, market risk appetite and liquidity have recovered. Industrially, downstream buyers are hesitant. China's copper smelters and Antofagasta have set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/lb. Technically, attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the $12,000 mark for LME copper [6]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: On Friday night, Shanghai aluminum rose sharply, and on Monday, it fluctuated within a narrow range. Macroscopically, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, market risk appetite rebounded, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. Industrially, the basis and calendar spread remained weak, and the industrial side had strong constraints. In the short term, attention should be paid to the technical resistance at the 22,400 RMB mark [7]. - **Shanghai Nickel**: On Friday night, Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a high level, with the open interest continuously rising. On Monday, Shanghai nickel significantly increased in volume and price, and the main contract price rose at the end of the session, breaking through the 120,000 RMB mark. Macroscopically, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, non - ferrous metals generally rose, and nickel showed signs of a rebound from oversold conditions. Industrially, the spot premium continued to strengthen, providing support for the nickel price. In the short term, Shanghai nickel has changed from a short - covering rebound to a long - adding rebound, breaking through the high in early December, with strong upward momentum. In case of a short - term correction, attention can be paid to the support at the 120,000 RMB mark [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: China's smelters and Antofagasta have set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/lb, compared with $21.25/ton and 2.125 cents/lb in 2025. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the second batch of enterprises meeting the standards for waste copper and aluminum processing and utilization, with 26 enterprises on the list. The total number of enterprises meeting the standards in two batches is 53, covering 12 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions. The total production capacity of these enterprises is about 8 million tons, including 500,000 tons for waste copper processing and distribution, 4 million tons for waste aluminum processing and distribution, and 3.5 million tons for direct recycling of recycled copper [10]. - **Aluminum**: In November 2025, China imported 15.11 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month increase of 9.76% and a year - on - year increase of 22.50%. From January to November 2025, China cumulatively imported 187 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 29.61%. In November 2025, China imported 10.707 million tons of Guinea bauxite, a month - on - month increase of 19.00% and a year - on - year increase of 34.08%. From January to November 2025, China cumulatively imported 138 million tons of Guinea bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 38.25% [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc. [12][13][14] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum calendar spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, Shanghai - London ratio, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, aluminum bar inventory, etc. [22][24][26] - **Nickel**: The report presents charts on nickel basis, nickel calendar spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [34][36][38]

Report Summary - **Report Date**: December 4, 2025 - **Reporting Team**: Research Center Non - ferrous Metals Team 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view from CESCO copper meetings is that buying on dips is the main strategy for copper, with an expected upward shift in the copper price center to the range of $10,500 - $11,300. For aluminum, the short - term trend may be volatile, with a shift from a supply - demand balance in early 2026 to a tighter situation later. Zinc prices are expected to have a limited decline in the short - term, and different trading strategies are recommended. Nickel and stainless steel fundamentals are weak, with opportunities for short - selling on rallies. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, and caution is advised. Tin prices have an upward - moving center, and long - position strategies near the cost line are suggested. Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term. Lithium carbonate prices are in a volatile state, and the upward potential depends on inventory reduction and other factors [1][2][3][5][8][9]. 3. Summary of Each Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the spot price of Shanghai copper increased by 35, the spread between scrap and refined copper increased by 340, and the LME inventory increased by 350 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The copper price center is expected to move up to the $10,500 - $11,300 range. Bullish factors include limited domestic scrap copper supply, increased domestic grid demand in 2026, global computing center construction, and Southeast Asian power construction. The bearish factor to watch is the potential outflow of North American inventory if US tariffs are removed [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, Shanghai aluminum ingot prices increased by 90, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2500. The aluminum ingot inventory decreased significantly, and downstream products also continued to reduce inventory [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the zinc price fluctuated, the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium increased to $224, the domestic social inventory decreased, and the overseas LME inventory decreased [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic zinc fundamentals are currently poor, but there will be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 contracts [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the price of Shanghai nickel increased by 350, and the domestic and overseas inventories continued to increase [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term fundamentals are weak. With continuous disruptions in the Indonesian mining sector and policy support for prices, opportunities for short - selling on rallies should be monitored [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the prices of various stainless - steel products remained unchanged, and the inventory remained at a high level [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The fundamentals are weak. With some price - support motivation from Indonesian policies, opportunities for short - selling on rallies should be monitored [3]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the lead price decreased, the social inventory decreased slightly to 35,000 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 3800 [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 16,900 - 17,200 next week. Attention should be paid to the increase in warehouse receipts and the price - support situation of waste batteries, and cautious operation is recommended [5]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the center of the tin price increased, the LME inventory increased by 50, and the trading volume increased by 7721 [8]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the fundamentals are acceptable. It is recommended to hold long positions near the cost line or use tin as a long - position allocation in the non - ferrous metals sector. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply will increase but with limited elasticity and many disturbing factors [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the basis of different grades changed, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 108 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a slightly loose balance, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 27 to December 3, the prices of SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased slightly, the basis of the main contract increased by 2850, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 660 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term supply and demand are both strong. If CATL resumes production in December, the de - stocking range is expected to maintain at 5,000 - 6,000 tons. The upward potential depends on inventory reduction and the improvement of speculative demand [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall non - ferrous metals market is in a state of adjustment, with different trends for each metal. Some metals are affected by factors such as inventory changes, policy uncertainties, and overseas market conditions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday saw Shanghai copper trading with a short - position and a negative line in a volatile manner. SMM spot copper was reported at 86,435 yuan, with premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong at 80 and 55 yuan respectively. SMM social inventory increased by 700 tons to 194,500 tons this week. Wait for the US September non - farm payroll data at night. The Fed meeting minutes showed large differences, and the probability of a December interest rate cut dropped to 30%. Hold short positions with a stop - loss at 87,000 yuan [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum showed a weak and volatile trend today. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China slightly narrowed to - 10 yuan, - 100 yuan, and - 125 yuan respectively. The non - ferrous metals market as a whole has been adjusting with reduced positions recently. The short - term fundamentals of the aluminum market are average, and the inventory build - up indicates poor performance. The adjustment may continue. Pay attention to the support of the middle Bollinger Band. The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,800 yuan today. Scrap aluminum supplies are tight, and the tax rate policy adjustment is still unclear. Both industry inventory and exchange warehouse receipts are at high levels. Cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price, and the spread with AL may narrow. Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and exchange warehouse receipts are rising. The oversupply situation is hard to change, and there is no movement during the heating season. Spot indices in various regions dropped by 5 yuan today. Alumina is likely to operate weakly before large - scale production cuts occur [3] Zinc - The impact of environmental protection in the north has been lifted, and downstream purchasing has accelerated. SMM zinc social inventory decreased to 152,700 tons, while LME zinc inventory increased to 45,000 tons. LME zinc broke through the support level and declined, but the tight overseas spot market still supports a high 0 - 3 month spot premium of $152.14 per ton. The split structure of domestic and overseas inventories is gradually being repaired, and the three - month import loss of zinc has narrowed to around 3,000 yuan per ton. There is still profit space for the cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy on the futures market. Both domestic and overseas mine TC have decreased, and the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices has improved. Shanghai zinc is expected to stabilize above the 60 - day moving average and is likely to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan per ton [4] Lead - After the lead price correction, downstream buyers were active. After the delivery, the SHFE lead warehouse receipts gradually decreased to 30,600 tons, and SMM lead social inventory decreased to 37,700 tons. The low inventory level supports the futures price. SMM 1 lead has a discount of 110 yuan per ton to the nearby contract. The profit of recycled lead is under pressure, and the refined - scrap spread has narrowed to 25 yuan per ton. LME lead inventory is at a high level of 264,000 tons, with a 0 - 3 month discount of $27.39 per ton. The overseas market's oversupply pressure remains unchanged, and LME lead still has room for further correction. There is an expectation that the lead ingot import window will open, and Shanghai lead lacks the momentum to rebound. The lower support is tentatively seen at 17,000 yuan per ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel opened high and closed low, and market trading was dull. After the US government ended the shutdown, the positive news was exhausted, and the market began to worry about the stability of overseas liquidity. Pay attention to whether the Fed will take actions to ease the liquidity pressure recently. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 3,900 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 500 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 175 yuan. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel declined, and the price of high - nickel iron is quoted at 906 yuan per nickel point. The support brought by the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, which may drag down the overall price level of the nickel industry chain. Pure nickel inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 53,100 tons, nickel iron inventory increased by 500 tons to 29,600 tons, and stainless steel inventory increased by 6,700 tons to 952,000 tons. The bullish factors for Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the nickel price is in a weak trend with a downward - shifting center of gravity [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed with a negative line and reduced positions. There is an environmental risk in a rare earth and tin mining area in Malaysia, and the mining area is under rectification. Due to the lack of specific data, the current impact on the tin market is limited. The domestic spot tin price remained unchanged at 291,500 yuan, with a discount of 100 yuan to the delivery month. The resumption rhythm of low - grade mines and the efficiency of capacity rectification of Indonesia's PT Timah are the keys to deepening the tight supply in the future. Hold long - term short positions with a stop - loss at 295,000 yuan [8] Lithium Carbonate - There is a battle at the integer - level price of lithium carbonate, and market trading is active. Downstream material factories are actively producing, and about 20 lithium iron phosphate enterprises have reached full - capacity operation. This phenomenon is expected to continue until the end of the year, mainly because downstream battery cell factories have a large increase in orders: the pure - electric heavy - truck project is continuously advancing, the traditional peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" for cars, and the shortage of energy - storage battery cells. The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons again, and traders increased their inventory. The sentiment in the middle - stream has improved, and the spot market shows some support. The latest quotation of Australian ore is $1,055. The lithium carbonate futures price is strengthening, inventory is continuously decreasing, and downstream demand is strong. Technically, it has broken through the range. Adopt a strategy of buying on dips [9] Industrial Silicon - After a short - term upward rush, the industrial silicon futures decreased in positions and declined today. The spot price increased slightly by 100 yuan per ton, and the price of downstream organic silicon DMC remained stable at 13,100 yuan per ton (SMM). Based on the "anti - involution" principle, the organic silicon industry plans to promote a joint emission - reduction plan in December, which is expected to affect the demand for industrial silicon by about 4,000 tons (corresponding to a reduction of 8,000 tons of DMC production), which is more cautious than the previous 30% reduction expectation. Overall, industrial silicon is in a technical correction in the short term, and the price is still expected to rise with the pricing repair expectation of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures declined synchronously with industrial silicon. The spot price of N - type polysilicon for re - feeding fluctuated within a narrow range, quoted by SMM at 49,700 - 54,900 yuan per ton. The overall demand in the photovoltaic market is weak, the marginal decline in terminal purchasing is obvious, and there is no intention to purchase domestic products overseas. There is still an expectation of reducing production in the component sector in December, and the inventory pressure in the battery cell sector is large. Although the polysilicon industry has cut production, the actual improvement in supply - demand is limited, and the price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - farm data in the US is poor, but the expected end of the government shutdown and improved inflation data in China support copper prices. Despite short - term demand suppression, in the long run, due to supply constraints and seasonal demand, the copper price center is expected to rise [3]. - For zinc, there are both bullish and bearish factors. With the expectation of production cuts in November and weakening downstream demand, the upward momentum is not strong, and attention should be paid to macro - driving and overseas support [4]. - The aluminum market has strong capital inflows, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Alumina is expected to stabilize and rebound, and the cast - aluminum alloy is expected to strengthen [5]. - The continuous decline in Indonesian tin exports has raised concerns about supply, and it is recommended to take a bullish view on tin [6]. - For lead, although supply is improving, there is still some support from overseas prices. Short - term strength is expected, but the upside space needs to be cautious [7]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak position. Nickel has high inventory pressure, and stainless steel has a weak supply - demand situation, with a slow downward trend in the price center [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Advice - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous sector is in an upward trend. The expected end of the US government shutdown and the improvement of China's PPI have boosted market sentiment. However, the market is also concerned about real - demand. Copper, aluminum, and tin are relatively strong, while nickel and stainless steel are at a low level [11]. - **Strategy for Each Variety** - **Copper**: With improved market sentiment and supply constraints, and entering the seasonal demand peak, it is recommended to gradually go long on dips. The upper pressure range is 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Zinc**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. It is recommended to be bullish on dips. The upper pressure is around 22,800 - 23,000, and the lower support is around 22,300 - 22,400 [4]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, it is recommended to hold long positions. Alumina is recommended to be observed, and the cast - aluminum alloy is recommended to be bullish [5]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to take a bullish view. The upper pressure range is 300,000 - 310,000, and the lower support range is 260,000 - 270,000 [6]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to use a covered - call strategy. The short - term lower support is around 17,300 - 17,400, and the upper pressure is around 17,800 - 18,000 [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips. Stainless steel is in a volatile range, with the lower support around 12,400 - 12,500 and the upper pressure around 12,800 - 13,000 [8]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Prices and Changes**: Copper closed at 86,840 with a 0.24% increase; zinc at 22,680 with a 0.02% increase; aluminum at 21,880 with a 0.99% increase; alumina at 2821 with a 0.18% increase; tin at 292,440 with a 1.48% increase; lead at 17,660 with a 1.26% increase; nickel at 118,710 with a 0.56% decrease; stainless steel at 12,425 with a 0.32% decrease; and cast - aluminum alloy at 21,245 with a 0.97% increase [15][16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different net long - short positions and changes. For example, the net long - short position of沪银(AG2512) is a strong long position, and the net long - short position of沪锡(SN2512) is a strong short position [19]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of copper is around 87,000 yuan/ton with a small increase; zinc is around 22,500 - 22,600 yuan/ton with a slight decrease; aluminum is around 21,500 - 21,700 yuan/ton with a small increase; alumina is around 2800 - 2870 yuan/ton; tin is around 290,000 - 291,000 yuan/ton with an increase; lead is around 17,150 yuan/ton with an increase; nickel is around 119,000 yuan/ton with a decrease; stainless steel is around 12,700 yuan/ton; and the cast - aluminum alloy is around 21,400 yuan/ton [20][21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides various charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [24][27][29]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report presents charts related to the arbitrage of each non - ferrous metal, including the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis, and spread [56][57][59]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report shows charts of historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for each non - ferrous metal [71][73][76].

Report Overview - Report Date: November 5, 2025 [4] - Report Type: Daily Report on Non-ferrous Metals [4] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views Copper - Today, copper prices dived in the morning and stabilized and rebounded during the day, with a slight decline in open interest. Recently, the global macro - atmosphere has weakened, putting significant pressure on copper prices, but the intraday market sentiment has improved. At the industrial level, as copper prices declined, the downstream restocking willingness has recovered, and the spot premium has strengthened. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at 85,000 [6]. Aluminum - Today, aluminum prices first declined and then rose, with a decrease in open interest, indicating an increase in the short - term willingness of long - position holders to close their positions. Recently, the macro - atmosphere has weakened, and the non - ferrous sector has declined collectively, but aluminum prices are relatively resistant to decline. At the industrial level, the inventory of downstream aluminum rods has decreased, while the inventory of mid - stream electrolytic aluminum has slightly increased. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [7]. Nickel - Today, nickel prices first declined and then rose, regaining the 120,000 mark in the afternoon. Recently, non - ferrous metals have seen an increase in open interest during the decline and a decrease during the rebound, showing a significant difference in volume - price relationship compared with copper and aluminum. The weakness at the industrial level has made funds more inclined to short - allocate nickel to hedge long positions in non - ferrous metals. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 120,000 mark [8]. 3. Industry Dynamics Copper - On November 5, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic copper was reported at 85,335 yuan/ton. According to copper enameled wire enterprises, as copper prices have fallen, the downstream order volume has increased recently, and the enameled wire orders have improved compared with last week [10]. Nickel - On November 5, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 119,400 - 122,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 120,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. 4. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc. [12][13][14] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, aluminum rod inventory, etc. [26][28][30] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [39][41][44]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: On October 28, 2025, Shanghai copper showed weak oscillations in the morning and a sharp decline in the afternoon, with the main contract price dropping to around 87,000. The macro - environment turned bearish in the afternoon, leading to a general decline in the non - ferrous sector. Copper decreased with reduced positions, indicating strong short - term profit - taking intentions of long - positions. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **沪铝**: On the same day, Shanghai aluminum also had weak oscillations in the morning and a sharp decline in the afternoon. Affected by the bearish macro - environment in the afternoon and the general decline of the non - ferrous sector, aluminum decreased with reduced positions, and short - term long - positions had strong profit - taking intentions. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average [7]. - **沪镍**: Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly on this day, with a significant decline accompanied by increased positions at the end of the session. Previously, when the macro - environment improved, non - ferrous metals prices rose, but nickel only had a weak rebound with reduced positions. With the macro - environment turning bearish today, nickel prices declined with increased positions. In terms of funds, nickel is still an under - allocated short position in the non - ferrous sector. Technically, attention should be paid to the low in October for support [8]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to Industrial Online data, in September 2025, China's household air - conditioner production was 10.567 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%; sales were 10.884 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. Among them, domestic sales were 5.949 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%; exports were 4.935 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1% [10]. - **Nickel**: On October 28, 2025, the price range of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,700 - 123,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,200 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 300 - 100 yuan/ton. Due to the change of quotation month, both premiums decreased [10]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides multiple copper - related charts, including copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [11][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: Related charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, aluminum rod inventory, etc [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Charts involve nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [37][39][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **沪铜**: Last night, Shanghai copper hit bottom and rebounded, and today it oscillated upward to regain losses, with little change in open interest. The decline in copper price last night was mainly affected by the sharp drop in gold price, but the overall trend was resilient. The downstream industry remained in a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, and the spot premium continued to weaken. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 85,000 mark [6]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly, and the open interest continued to rise. In the short term, as the copper price stabilizes, the non - ferrous sector operates strongly. The downstream industry makes rigid purchases, and there is no momentum to reduce the low - level inventory. Technically, the aluminum price faces pressure at the 21,000 mark [7]. - **沪镍**: Today, the nickel price hit bottom and rebounded in the morning and oscillated strongly during the day. In the short term, as the copper price stabilizes, the non - ferrous sector operates strongly. The nickel price is at a low level since September, and short - covering willingness is strong. The industrial pressure remains, and the nickel price has weak rebound momentum. Continuous attention should be paid to the low - level technical support [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Citi is bullish on copper and aluminum in the medium term. The copper price will reach $12,000 per ton in the next 6 - 12 months, and the aluminum price will reach $3,500 per ton by 2027 [10]. - **Nickel**: On October 22, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,700 - 123,500 yuan per ton, with an average price of 122,100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 400 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,400 - 2,600 yuan per ton, with an average premium of 2,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan per ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, aluminum monthly spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum rod inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][39].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a long/short position, with a driving force for an upward/downward trend, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows a complex situation with different trends for each metal. Some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and policy expectations, and their prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - to - medium term [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper showed a positive line oscillation, regaining part of the intraday gains. The spot copper was reported at 78,830 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium slightly shrank to 150 yuan. Overnight, the August manufacturing PMI indices in Europe and the US were better than expected, driving the London copper to rebound. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of the MA60 moving average, and short positions above 79,000 yuan should be held [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated, with a spot premium of 30 yuan in East China. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 11,000 tons and 8,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. The downstream start - up was stable, and the inventory was likely to remain at a low level this year. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. Alumina was in a weak oscillation, with support at the 3,000 - yuan level [3] Zinc - Shanghai zinc retraced to the previous low. The downstream's buying sentiment improved at low prices, and the SMM zinc social inventory slightly decreased to 132,900 tons. The short - term was regarded as an oscillation, and the medium - term was to maintain a short - allocation idea on rebounds [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel pulled back, and the market trading was mediocre. The stainless steel social inventory had decreased for six consecutive times. However, the downstream terminals' acceptance of high - priced stainless steel sources was still poor. Shanghai nickel was in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and short positions should be actively entered [7] Tin - Shanghai tin showed a negative line oscillation above the MA60 moving average. After the centralized delivery on the third Wednesday of LME, the 0 - 3 month shifted to a discount of 2 dollars, and the inventory was at a low level. Short - term long positions should be held based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell below 80,000 yuan, and the market trading was active. The market was regarded as an oscillation, and risk control should be done well [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose slightly. The current market supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and the price was expected to maintain an oscillation [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. The current spot price corresponded to the lower edge of the oscillation range, and the upper space still depended on the implementation progress of the production capacity management policy. The operation idea was to go long on dips [11]