2026.01.05-01.09 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 目录 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于震荡运行。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格维稳，截至1月4日新疆地区421#价格9050元/吨，云 南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货AI 智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在横盘阶段。资金方面，主 力显示出较强的偏空情绪。 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 工业硅震荡运行，观望为主。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 工业硅2605合约8,000–9,500元/吨区间震荡。 本周策略建议 工业硅主力合约8,000–9,500元/吨区间震荡。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 截止至2024年 ...

12.12 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 2025.12.08- 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于大区间运行。 中线趋势判断 1 预计工业硅2601合约运行区间在8500—10000之中。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 工业硅大区间运行，观望为主。 本周策略建议 工业硅大区间运行，观望为主。 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格维稳，截至12月5日新疆地区421#价格9200元/吨，云 南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货AI 智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在横盘阶段。资金方面，主 力偏多态度较为明显。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，LM ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: November 10 - 14, 2025 [1] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Industrial silicon futures are currently in a wide - range operation. The 2601 contract is expected to operate between 7,500 and 10,000 [8][9]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. As of November 7, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 9,150 yuan/ton, 9,900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report from Great Wall Futures showed that the daily price of industrial silicon was in a sideways phase, and the main force showed a strong bearish sentiment [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Industrial silicon was in a wide - range operation, with a focus on buying on dips [12]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Industrial silicon is in a wide - range operation, with a focus on buying on dips [13]. 3. Related Data - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [15]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [19] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Lithium carbonate futures are currently in a wide - range operation. The 2601 contract is expected to operate between 68,000 and 100,000 [34][35]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate declined. As of November 7, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,150 yuan/ton, and the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 78,750 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report from Great Wall Futures showed that the daily price of lithium carbonate futures was basically in an upward channel, and the main long - position camp had a slight advantage [35]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Lithium carbonate was in a wide - range operation, with a focus on buying on dips. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Lithium carbonate is in a wide - range operation, with a focus on buying on dips [38]. 3. Related Data - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [41]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon futures are currently in a large - range oscillatory operation. The 2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 7,700 - 10,000 yuan. It's recommended to consider grid trading within the range [6][7][10]. - Lithium carbonate futures are also in a large - range oscillatory operation. The 2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 63,000 - 80,000 yuan. It's recommended to buy a small amount when the price retraces to the 63,000 - 65,000 yuan range [32][33][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: Industrial silicon futures are in a large - range oscillatory operation. Last week, the spot price of industrial silicon decreased slightly. As of August 8, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8,900 yuan/ton, 10,000 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,100 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report shows that the daily price is in a downward channel, and the long - position camp of the main force has a slight advantage. The 2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 7,700 - 10,000 yuan [6][7]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range. - This week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range [10]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [12][17]. Lithium Carbonate Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: Lithium carbonate futures are in a large - range oscillatory operation. Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate showed mixed trends. As of August 8, the mainstream price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,950 yuan/ton. Technically, the AI variety diagnosis report shows that the daily price of lithium carbonate futures is in a sideways phase, and the main force shows a strong bullish sentiment. The 2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 63,000 - 80,000 yuan [32][33]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Buy a small amount when the price of lithium carbonate retraces to the 63,000 - 65,000 yuan range. - This week's strategy: Buy a small amount when the price of lithium carbonate retraces to the 63,000 - 65,000 yuan range [36][37]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [40][42].

Aggregate Information - Report Title: Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: July 28 - August 1, 2025 [1] Group 1: Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Industrial silicon futures are currently in a process of stabilizing and rebounding [6] - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of industrial silicon increased. As of July 25, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 9,650 yuan/ton, 10,300 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily price of industrial silicon is in a strong upward stage, and the main force shows a strong bullish sentiment [6] - Strategy Suggestion: The support level of the industrial silicon 2509 futures price is in the range of 8,300 - 8,600. It is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The price of industrial silicon was bottoming and oscillating. It was advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [10] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: During the process of the industrial silicon price stabilizing and rebounding, it is advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [11] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [13] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [17] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Lithium carbonate futures are currently in a process of stabilizing and rebounding [30] - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate increased. As of July 25, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,800 yuan/ton. Technically, the AI variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily price of lithium carbonate futures is in a strong upward stage, and the main force shows a strong bullish sentiment [31] - Strategy Suggestion: The support level of the lithium carbonate 2509 futures price is in the range of 69,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to buy a small amount on dips [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: During the process of the lithium carbonate price stabilizing and rebounding, it was advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [34] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: During the process of the lithium carbonate price stabilizing and rebounding, it is advisable to consider buying a small amount on dips during the correction [35] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [38] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [41]

Group 1: General Information - Report Period: 2025.06.23 - 06.27 [1] - Report Title: Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures Weekly Report [2] - Reported Futures Varieties: Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate [2] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Industrial silicon futures prices maintain a weak trend [7] - Trend Logic: Spot prices are stable, production costs decrease due to lower electricity prices in the southwest during the wet season, overall supply is abundant, downstream industries have production cut expectations, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. The AI report shows the daily price is in a sideways phase [7] - Strategy Suggestion: Due to the existing supply - demand contradiction, it is recommended to wait and see [7] 2. Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The price was weak, and it was recommended to wait and see [10] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The price remains weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [10] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [12] - As of April 19, 2024, LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. It is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [16] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Lithium carbonate futures prices operate weakly with fluctuations [29] - Trend Logic: Spot prices fell last week, the futures market declined, production cost support weakened due to lower lithium ore prices, downstream demand is mainly for rigid restocking, and supply is expected to grow faster than demand. The AI report shows the daily price is in a downward channel [30] - Strategy Suggestion: Due to the weak operation, it is recommended to wait and see [30] 2. Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The price was weakly fluctuating, and it was recommended to wait and see [33] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The price continues to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [33] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [36] - As of April 19, 2024, LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. It is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [37]

Report Overview - Report period: May 19 - 23, 2025 [1] - Report title: Weekly Report on Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures [2] Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - Industrial silicon futures prices maintain a weak trend due to poor supply - demand fundamentals, and it is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: Industrial silicon futures prices maintain a weak trend [7] - Trend logic: Affected by poor supply - demand fundamentals, prices continue to decline. Weak demand in the photovoltaic industry, cautious downstream procurement, low trading volume in the silicone market, and limited demand from aluminum alloy manufacturers [7] - Strategy recommendation: Wait and see due to the existing supply - demand contradiction in the industrial silicon market [8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Maintain a weak trend, recommend waiting and seeing [11] - This week's strategy: Maintain a weak trend, recommend waiting and seeing [11] 3.3 Related Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [13] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. The current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [17][21][23] Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - Lithium carbonate futures prices operate weakly in a volatile manner. There is a possibility of continuous decline, and radical investors can consider buying put options [28][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: Lithium carbonate futures prices operate weakly in a volatile manner [28] - Trend logic: The spot price of lithium carbonate fell last week. Some integrated production enterprises face cost inversion. Downstream enterprises mainly stock up for rigid needs and are highly watchful. The overall market has oversupply. However, recent Sino - US tariff adjustments may increase the export expectation of energy - storage batteries and long - term demand for lithium carbonate. Technically, the daily line of lithium carbonate futures is basically in a downward channel [29] - Strategy recommendation: Wait and see due to the pessimistic market sentiment and the possibility of continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices [29] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: There is a possibility of continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices. Radical investors can consider buying put options [33] - This week's strategy: There is a possibility of continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices. Radical investors can consider buying put options [34] 3.3 Related Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [36] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. The current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [39][44]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon futures prices are expected to maintain a weak trend due to poor supply - demand fundamentals, high inventories, and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices will operate in a weak and volatile manner. Given the sharp decline in spot prices, cost - price inversion for some enterprises, high inventory levels, and a pessimistic market sentiment, prices may continue to fall. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can consider buying put options [30][31][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The price of industrial silicon futures maintains a weak trend. Affected by poor supply - demand fundamentals, high inventories, and weak downstream demand in industries like polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy, prices are under pressure. The AI intelligent investment consultation shows the daily line is in a downward channel. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The price was expected to continue to be under pressure. It was recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors could consider buying a small amount of put options [11]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The price will maintain a weak trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [14]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%. It is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [18]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - Lithium carbonate futures prices operate in a weak and volatile manner. After a sharp decline in the spot price last week, some integrated producers face cost - price inversion, market transactions are cold, and inventory levels are high. The AI variety diagnosis report shows the daily line is in a downward channel. It is recommended to wait and see [30][31]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was expected that the price of lithium carbonate might continue to fall, and it was recommended to wait and see [34]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The price may continue to fall, and aggressive investors can consider buying put options [35]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [38]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%. It is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon futures prices are in a weak downward trend due to delayed polysilicon production, concentrated maintenance of silicone devices leading to weaker demand, high social inventory of 270,000 tons, and high futures warehouse receipts of 200,000 tons. The price will continue to be under pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [6][7]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices are in a weak and volatile state. The spot market has an oversupply situation, and downstream manufacturers are mostly waiting and seeing, mainly purchasing raw materials for rigid demand. The price is under pressure to decline, and the pressure range for lithium carbonate 2507 is 71,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to wait and see [28][29][33]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The price is in a weak downward trend. The demand is weakening marginally, and the inventory is at a historical high. The AI intelligent investment consultation shows the price is in a downward channel. It is recommended to wait and see [6][7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week: The situation of weak supply and demand was difficult to change, and the price would continue to be under pressure. It was recommended to wait and see. - This week: Due to high inventory and weak demand, the price will continue to be under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. - As of April 19, 2024, LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts was 25.73%. It was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [13][15]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The price is in a weak and volatile state. The spot market has an oversupply, and the technical analysis shows it is in a downward channel. The price is under pressure, and the pressure range for lithium carbonate 2507 is 71,000 - 72,000 [28][29]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week: Lithium carbonate 2507 should focus on the operating range of 68,000 - 73,000, and a large - grid trading strategy could be considered. - This week: The pressure range for lithium carbonate 2507 is 71,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to wait and see [32][33]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. - As of April 19, 2024, LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts was 66.03%. It was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [35][37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Tariff issues continue to disrupt the market, being the main trading logic. Most non - US countries aim to negotiate agreements with the US. After the US delays imposing reciprocal tariffs, other countries also delay counter - measures [1]. - The market is in a high - level oscillation, lacking unilateral investment opportunities. The impact of tariffs on the real economy is gradually emerging, and risk appetite is difficult to improve significantly [2][21]. - The price trends of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and weather, showing different characteristics of oscillation, strength, or weakness. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Tariff issues continue to disrupt the market. Gold oscillated and closed higher, showing strength. The market is concerned about future Sino - US negotiation space. The actual trade has been affected, and economic downward pressure is increasing. Market sentiment is bullish, but attention should be paid to increased volatility [12]. - Investment advice: Short - term market volatility increases, so pay attention to risks [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 164.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The market is in high - level oscillation, lacking unilateral investment opportunities. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties [13]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties [14]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple events such as the US considering tax increases on the rich, investigating key minerals, and the slow progress of US - EU trade negotiations have occurred. The difficulty of trade negotiations persists, and the market should have a long - term expectation for tariff negotiations [15][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will rebound in the short term [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - New York state's manufacturing has contracted for two consecutive months, and Canada will conditionally exempt some counter - measures against US - imported cars. The EU expects US tariffs to remain unchanged. The impact of tariffs on the real economy is emerging, and the stock index is expected to oscillate weakly [20][21]. - Investment advice: Although US stocks have temporarily stabilized, they have not completely reversed their weak performance [21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The NOPA's March soybean crushing volume was lower than expected, and ANEC raised Brazil's April soybean export forecast. Domestic soybean import costs have decreased. The spot market has mixed price changes, and the basis contract is the main form of trading [22][24]. - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to Brazil's export quotes, US soybean growing area weather, and Sino - US relations. The spot and basis of soybean meal will be under pressure [24]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export tariff of Malaysian crude palm oil in May remains at 10%, and the reference price is lowered. The export of Malaysian palm oil from April 1 - 15 increased. The oil market oscillated. Rapeseed oil was affected by rumors, palm oil was supported by exports, and soybean oil was affected by the expectation of high soybean arrivals [25][26]. - Investment advice: It is advisable to long - allocate distant - month soybean oil. The price of palm oil will be weak until its cost - performance is fully restored [27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Guangxi issued a drought risk warning for sugarcane. Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of April decreased year - on - year. The sugar mill's high - price sales support the futures market, but it is in the off - season, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The international market may be under pressure, and the import volume is expected to increase [30][33]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in Q2 2025, and attention should be paid to the origin weather and Brazil's crushing production [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Starch enterprises' losses remain unchanged. The raw material cost is high, and the downstream demand is weak. The futures price difference is affected by complex factors, and the loss may lead to a reduction in production. The substitution of wheat may affect the regional price difference [34][35]. - Investment advice: The futures price difference of corn starch has complex influencing factors and is expected to have small fluctuations [36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of corn is stable. The import of grains is decreasing, and the inventory reduction in Northeast China is accelerating. The drought in North China wheat may affect the market [37]. - Investment advice: Before the May delivery, pay attention to inventory reduction in Northeast China and North China wheat production. Otherwise, the second - round upward repair of old - crop corn may be driven by the tightening of inventory after the May delivery [37]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In early April, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased, and the inventory increased. The steel price oscillated, and the market driver is not obvious. The market is waiting for policy signals and the impact of administrative crude steel production cuts [38][40]. - Investment advice: Be cautious about steel price rebounds, operate with light positions, and use spot for rebound hedging [41]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - In March 2025, the production of domestic cathode copper increased. The US copper industry called for export restrictions instead of tariff policies. The global economic downturn concerns and domestic supply - demand conditions may suppress copper prices [42][44]. - Investment advice: In the short term, copper prices are expected to oscillate widely. It is advisable to conduct band operations unilaterally and remain on the sidelines for arbitrage [44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon production plan is expected to increase, but the high inventory and weak demand may put pressure on the spot price. The number of registered warehouse receipts is limited [46]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunities of going long on PS2506 at low prices and shorting PS2511 at high prices unilaterally. Hold the PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The demand for industrial silicon raw materials is weak, and the price of silica has decreased regionally. The supply is loose, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is affected by factors such as factory production reduction and policy [47]. - Investment advice: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate between 9000 - 10500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to shorting opportunities after the price rebounds [49]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The discovery of high - grade tin - tantalum mineralization in a project may affect the market sentiment. The short - term supply reduction may help the price stabilize, but the long - term external demand is uncertain due to the tariff war [50][51]. - Investment advice: Short - term lithium prices may stabilize, and short positions can consider taking profits. In the medium - long term, pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds [51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME will add two nickel delivery warehouses in Hong Kong. The macro - market and supply - demand factors affect nickel prices. The current nickel price may be oversold, and there are opportunities for upward repair [52][53]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices, manage positions well, and find short - matching varieties to hedge risks [53]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price oscillated, following macro - news. The supply of primary lead decreased, and the raw material of recycled lead was in short supply. The import window of crude lead opened, and the inventory decreased slightly [54][55]. - Investment advice: In the short term, wait and see. Hold previous long positions and wait for buying opportunities on pullbacks. Hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage [55]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME approved four LME - approved warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. The zinc price oscillated downward, and the inventory may turn from decreasing to increasing. In the short term, zinc prices will oscillate widely, and in the medium term, it is advisable to short on rebounds [56][58]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, pay attention to shorting opportunities on medium - term rebounds near the moving average. For arbitrage, remain on the sidelines for inter - period and hold the internal - external positive arbitrage in the medium term [58]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API crude oil inventory increased, and the IEA lowered the global oil demand growth forecast. The oil price oscillated, and the market is pessimistic about the demand outlook [59][60]. - Investment advice: The short - term crude oil price will maintain an oscillating pattern [61]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price decreased, and the basis strengthened slightly. The terminal demand is affected by tariffs, and the supply - side inventory decreased due to maintenance. In the short term, it may rebound slightly, but in the long term, it is bearish [62][63]. - Investment advice: The rebound height of the PTA industry chain is limited, and it is bearish in the medium - long term [64]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market prices in Shandong and Henan decreased slightly. The supply is stable, and the demand is for rigid needs. The future supply may increase, and the demand is restricted by the downstream's acceptance of high - price复合肥 [65][66]. - Investment advice: The urea price will oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the demand in traditional and new delivery areas [66]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The trading volume of Shandong styrene decreased. The styrene price oscillated weakly, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively better than that of pure benzene. However, the demand after May is still under pressure [67][68]. - Investment advice: Consider taking profits on the strategy of expanding the styrene - pure benzene price difference. The styrene price is expected to be under pressure [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased steadily. The supply increased, and the demand improved. The price may have bottomed out, but there is still macro - uncertainty [69]. - Investment advice: Temporarily wait and see [70]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable, with some local price drops. The pulp price is affected by the macro - environment [71]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [73]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased slightly, and the trading was poor. The market is affected by tariffs and domestic stimulus policies [74]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the impact of tariffs on demand and the scale and type of domestic stimulus policies [74]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories decreased locally. The bottle chip market is affected by raw materials and tariffs. The supply and demand both increase, and the processing fee is expected to oscillate at a low level [75][76]. - Investment advice: The processing fee of bottle chips will oscillate in a low - level range [76]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - In 2025, the national carbon emission trading market work started. Three industries will be included in the carbon market, and the carbon emission price is expected to be under pressure [77]. - Investment advice: The CEA price will be under pressure [78]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the southwest market oscillated at a low level. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak [79]. - Investment advice: The soda ash futures price is expected to be under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds in the medium term [79]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market was stable. The glass price decreased, and the demand in different regions is different [80]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the near - month contract will be under pressure. Consider going long on distant - month contracts on large pullbacks, but the rebound space is not optimistic [81][82]. 3.2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - MSC is expected to become the world's largest terminal operator. The spot index is lower than expected, and the market is worried about the excess capacity on the US line [83]. - Investment advice: The excess capacity on the US line may suppress the upward space of the market. The European line will be weak in the short term. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities due to sentiment over - selling [83].