智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，在AIDC建设加速背景下，电力供需缺口持续放大，燃气轮 机行业有望开启新一轮上行周期。AI数据中心建设带来大量用电需求，且对电力的可靠性、稳定性提 出较高要求。燃机市场替代空间大，看好国内设备商受益机会。 投资建议 在需求爆发+供给受限+国产替代的格局下，燃气轮机行业推荐高额燃机订单持续落地【杰瑞股份】、 聚焦高技术壁垒透平叶片国产替代【应流股份】、燃机缸体与环类主力供应商【豪迈科技】、卡特彼勒 供应商【联德股份】。 风险提示 AI数据中心投资不及预期、国际贸易摩擦、国产替代不及预期。 在AIDC建设加速背景下，电力供需缺口持续放大，燃气轮机行业有望开启新一轮上行周期 ①供需格局：需求端快速释放，而供给受制于供应链约束及3–5年的交付周期显著滞后，2025年全球燃 机意向订单已超80GW，实际可交付产能不足50GW，供需缺口明确；②分功率产品优势：重型燃机具 备大功率、长期稳定运行优势，中小型燃机在灵活性与可靠性方面更具优势，均可适配AIDC用电需 求，其中中小型燃机在数据中心场景下需求弹性更强，相关机组订单增速显著；③区域分布：北美与中 东形成双轮驱动格局，美国电力系 ...

由于"美国缺电"与算力需求爆发性增长的矛盾日益尖锐，数据中心等高耗能设施对电力供给的刚性需求持续爆发，燃气轮机作为快速响应、高效稳定的供电 解决方案，正迎来历史性发展机遇。 由此，以通用电气（GE Vernova）、西门子能源（Siemens Energy）为代表的国际燃气轮机巨头股价表现强势，代表了市场对其未来增长给予了高度期待。 其中，燃气轮机龙头GE Vernova年内股价累计涨幅超115%，自分拆上市以来涨幅更是逾430%。 这股源自海外的强劲需求浪潮，正沿着产业链条层层传导，为A股市场中相关配套上市公司带来了前所未有的发展机遇。那些深度融入海外巨头发电设备产 业链的A股配套上市公司，有望在2026年迎来订单与业绩的双重爆发。 燃气轮机板块的两大逻辑共振 美国电力短缺并非一日之寒。 首先是电力缺口持续扩大。近年来，随着人工智能、数据中心、电动汽车及高端制造业的迅猛发展，美国的电力需求曲线陡峭上扬。美国能源信息署 （EIA）最新预测显示，2026年美国电力消耗将达到4267亿千瓦时，再创新高，其中AI数据中心与加密货币挖矿是需求增长的核心驱动力。摩根士丹利进一 步指出，2025-2028年美国数据中心累 ...

Core Viewpoint - GEV and Siemens have reported significant growth in new gas turbine orders, indicating a strong demand in the gas turbine market, driven by the increasing electricity needs from AI data centers [2][3]. Group 1: Order Growth - GEV signed 114 new gas turbine orders in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 46%, with heavy-duty gas turbine orders reaching 69 units, up 57% [2][3]. - Siemens' gas service business secured new orders worth €18.2 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a 42% year-on-year growth, with Q3 orders for gas turbines soaring by 231% to 86 units [2]. Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Financial Guidance - GEV has advanced its annual gas turbine production capacity target from Q3 2026 to H1 2026 and plans to increase its production capacity to 24 GW by 2028, supported by a projected capital expenditure of $10 billion from 2025 to 2028 [3]. - GEV has raised its revenue guidance for 2028 from $45 billion to $52 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin increase from 14% to 20% [3]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - The construction of AI data centers is driving a surge in electricity demand, with gas turbines being positioned as the optimal power supply solution due to their quick construction cycles and stable power output [4]. - There is significant potential for domestic equipment manufacturers to replace foreign brands in the gas turbine market, with several companies identified as key players benefiting from this trend [4][5]. Group 4: Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Jerry Holdings (002353.SZ) for its strong order book and partnerships with major players [5]. - Yingliu Technology (603308.SH) focusing on high-tech turbine blades for domestic replacement [5]. - Haomai Technology (002595.SZ) as a main supplier of gas turbine components [5]. - Liande Co., Ltd. (605060.SH) as a supplier for Caterpillar gas turbines [5].

Core Insights - Anhui's manufacturing sector has shown remarkable performance in 2023, with significant growth in various industries and a strong focus on innovation and collaboration [1][2][3] Group 1: Manufacturing Performance - In the first three quarters of 2023, Anhui ranked first in the country for automobile production, and the export value of "new three items" increased by 71.9% [1] - The number of large-scale industrial enterprises in Anhui grew by nearly 40% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with national high-tech enterprises and provincial specialized enterprises both increasing by about 200% [1] - The number of enterprises with over 10 billion yuan in revenue rose from 36 to 61 [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The government has implemented a "systematic methodology" to support manufacturing, focusing on deepening the integration of government, industry, academia, research, finance, and services [1] - Anhui's strategic emerging industries contribute over 60% to the province's industrial economic growth [2] - The province has established a service network for enterprises, fostering an ecosystem that supports innovation and development [1][2] Group 3: Regional Collaboration - Anhui's collaboration with the Yangtze River Delta region has led to significant advancements, such as the development of high-temperature alloy blades for aircraft, breaking foreign monopolies [2] - The region has created a "4-hour industrial circle" for electric vehicles and established 12 innovation consortia, emphasizing complementary advantages rather than zero-sum competition [2] Group 4: International Influence - The World Manufacturing Conference has permanently settled in Hefei, with participation from 53 countries and regions in 2025, showcasing Anhui's transformation and enhancing its international influence [3] - Recent diplomatic efforts included a visit to Morocco, where Anhui's automotive industry was highlighted as a key link in international cooperation [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The emphasis on high-quality development in manufacturing aligns with the need to adapt to new technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, which is reshaping the industry [3][4] - Anhui's experience in leveraging national strategies and regional collaboration serves as a model for other regions to transform comparative advantages into developmental strengths [4]

Summary of Conference Call on Gas Turbine Industry Industry Overview - The gas turbine industry is experiencing significant growth driven by AI demand and increased capital expenditures from global and domestic cloud service providers [1][2][4][5][6] Key Points Capital Expenditure Growth - Global cloud service providers' capital expenditure is projected to reach $330 billion in 2024, a 22% year-over-year increase [1][5] - The four major North American cloud service providers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta) will see a combined capital expenditure of $201.9 billion, up 56% year-over-year, with a 73% increase in the first half of the year [1][2][5] - Domestic cloud service providers, including Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu, are expected to increase capital expenditure by 105% to $26.5 billion in 2024 [1][6] Market Dynamics - The global gas turbine market is valued at approximately ¥200 billion, dominated by Siemens, GEV, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which hold around 80-90% market share [1][3] - Global gas turbine sales are expected to reach 55.5 GW in 2024, a 38% increase from 2023 [4] Profitability and Order Backlog - Starting in 2023, the North American gas price index has been rising, leading to improved gross margins and net profits for major gas turbine companies from 2024 onwards [1][7] - GEV's backlog has extended to 2028, with new orders in 2024 expected to grow by 113% to 20.2 GW, indicating a strong demand [7] - Siemens and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries also report significant order backlogs, with new orders reflecting a 1:2 ratio [7][8] Production Expansion Plans - Major companies are planning to expand production capacity, with Siemens aiming for a 30% increase over the next two years and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries planning to double its capacity [8] Upstream Component Market - The upstream component market, particularly high-temperature alloy blades, is dominated by U.S. companies like Howmet and PCC, which have high barriers to entry and strong profitability [2][9] - Howmet's profitability has significantly improved in Q2 2024, indicating a supply-demand imbalance and rising prices [9] Opportunities for Domestic Companies - Chinese companies, such as Yiniu Co. and Haomai Technology, are positioned to benefit from overseas supply shortages and concentrated competition [10] - Other domestic companies to watch include Lian De Co., Fangya Technology, Dongfang Electric, and others, which are expected to experience rapid growth due to their R&D investments [10]

Economic Development - The Yangtze River Delta region, which occupies only 4% of China's land area, contributes nearly 25% of the national GDP, with a projected GDP exceeding 8 trillion yuan by the first quarter of 2025 [2] - Anhui province aims to achieve a GDP exceeding 5 trillion yuan, maintaining its position among the top regions in innovation capabilities for 13 consecutive years, and leading the nation in automobile production in the first half of this year [2] Industrial Integration - The head of industrial robotics company Efort highlighted that over 90% of their high-end clients are concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, which includes key industries such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, 3C electronics, and new energy vehicles [3] - Anhui has developed a comprehensive supply chain for the aviation industry, with local companies producing critical components for major aircraft like the C919 and C929 [3] - The "4-hour ecological circle" facilitates the rapid assembly of electric vehicles, making the new energy vehicle sector a significant growth driver in the region [3] Automotive Industry - In the first half of this year, Anhui's new energy vehicle production reached 730,900 units, ranking first in the country, with over 2,700 automotive parts companies contributing to nearly half of the total revenue of the automotive industry chain [4] - A joint innovation consortium led by Efort was established to promote technological advancements in the robotics sector, with Anhui initiating 90 national and provincial projects focused on various innovative technologies [4] Technological Innovation - The collaboration between the Hefei Light Source and the Shanghai Light Source aims to create the world's brightest X-ray source, enhancing the region's technological capabilities [5] - The Yangtze River Delta has seen significant progress in collaborative innovation, with multiple national laboratories and research centers being established to foster technological advancements [5] - Anhui has emerged as a leader in quantum information, fusion energy, and deep space exploration, with a notable concentration of enterprises and patents in these fields [6]