云厂商专家的访谈和瑞银、Jefferies的市场调研，深入分析了当前云服务市场的"涨价潮"，核心内容可总结为以下 三点： 一、 云服务下游客户如何看待涨价？ • 上云趋势不可逆转：调研显示，到2027年底，超过一半的IT工作负载将迁移至云端（预计从当前的68%升至 83%）。 底层驱动力是企业的风险转移需求，包括将重资产投入转为灵活的运营支出（现金流优化），以及利用云厂商 云厂商专家的访谈和瑞银、Jefferies的市场调研，深入分析了当前云服务市场的"涨价潮"，核心内容可总结为以下 三点： 一、 云服务下游客户如何看待涨价？ • 上云趋势不可逆转：调研显示，到2027年底，超过一半的IT工作负载将迁移至云端（预计从当前的68%升至 83%）。 下游客户普遍认为，面对上游硬件成本上涨，除了接受云服务涨价"几乎没有其他选择"。 他们预计，若AI算力需求爆发，未来三到四年所有云厂商都会涨价，因此有客户选择提前签订长期协议以锁定当 前价格。 • SaaS定价收紧：客户也观察到SaaS供应商开始提价，这进一步推动了整体IT预算的上调。 二、 涨价的真实幅度与传导机制 • 传导幅度有限：并非硬件成本（如服务器上涨15% ...

存储芯片涨价这把"双刃剑"，正在刺破全球智能手机市场的复苏泡沫。 据追风交易台信息，高盛分析师 Allen Chang 团队在1月25日发布的最新研报中警告：由于存储组件价 格上涨导致成本激增，智能手机市场原本预期的2026年出货量反弹将不复存在。 高盛将2026年全球智能手机出货量预期直接下调6%，预计全年仅为11.9亿部——这意味着市场非但这 年不会增长，反而会同比萎缩6%。 这一判断的逻辑非常直接：存储芯片太贵了，导致手机BOM（物料清单）成本飙升。对于价格敏感的 低端机型来说，这几乎是毁灭性的打击。 存储涨价，"吃掉"了入门级市场的需求 原因很简单：对于售价超过600美元的iPhone或安卓旗舰来说，存储芯片成本在总售价中的占比相对较 低，目标客户群对价格也不敏感。高盛预计，高端机型销量在2025-2027年仍将保持2%的年复合增长， 到2027年，高端机将贡献全球智能手机营收的70%。 折叠屏手机更是逆势增长的亮点。华为Mate X7、Moto Razr等新品的发布，正在通过新形态和更成熟的 供应链吸引用户。高盛预计2026年全球折叠屏手机渗透率将达到3.8%（约4500万台），2027年进一步 升 ...

5G通信 数十万5G与信息领域关注者的头部科技媒体 近日，中国移动2025年至2026年集中网络云资源池七期工程计算型服务器超大采购订单中标候选人结果 正式公示，本次采购涉及计算型服务器总计8581台，仅目前已公布的两个标包不含税总金额就已达到约 20亿元。 文 赵哲超/5G通信 移动的算力"加码"逻辑 作为行业老兵，我见证了太多运营商的投资周期变化。这次移动的大手笔采购，绝非一时兴起，而是有 着清晰的战略考量。 从财务数据看，2024年中国移动算力领域投入475亿元，同比增长21.5%，占资本开支比重从21.7%提升 至27.5%。这个比例变化很有意思——在总体资本开支下降4%的情况下，算力投资逆势上扬，说明移动 已经把算力当作下一个增长极来布局。 从集采规模看，今年移动的算力采购确实"疯狂"。先是191亿元的AI训练服务器集采，紧接着50亿元的 AI推理服务器集采，现在又来了20亿元的网络云资源池服务器。短短一年内，仅服务器采购就超过260 亿元，这在运营商历史上都是罕见的。并且目前，标包3、4、5的中标候选人尚未公布，意味着此次大 规模集采的最终总金额仍有上升空间。 更关键的是，中国移动时任董事长、党组 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has updated its global server market forecast, expecting total revenue to reach $433.1 billion, $606.1 billion, and $763.9 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 71%, 40%, and 26% [2] - AI training servers are identified as the core growth engine, with projected revenues of $234.8 billion, $369.8 billion, and $506.2 billion for the same years, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 97%, 57%, and 37% [2] - The report highlights a structural transformation in the global server market, driven by accelerated ASIC server penetration and significant capital expenditure growth from global cloud service providers, maintaining a high prosperity period from 2025 to 2027 [1][2] Group 2 - ASIC chip penetration in AI servers is expected to increase, with forecasts of 38%, 40%, and 50% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, up from a previous estimate of 45% for 2027 [3] - The demand for AI chips corresponding to AI servers is projected to reach 11 million, 16 million, and 21 million units in 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing increases of 7%, 17%, and 26% from previous forecasts [3] - The AI rack server market is shifting from reliance on Nvidia to a more diversified competition, with non-Nvidia solutions like AMD's Helios expected to gain market share [4] Group 3 - High-power AI training servers are projected to see significant growth, with shipment forecasts of 692,000, 952,000, and 1,227,000 units for 2025, 2026, and 2027, and corresponding market sizes of $180.2 billion, $205.2 billion, and $251.1 billion [5] - AI inference servers are expected to grow steadily, with shipment forecasts of 470,000, 539,000, and 656,000 units, and market size increasing from $29.8 billion to $48.4 billion from 2025 to 2027 [6] - The general server market is returning to normal growth, with shipment growth rates of 11%, 8%, and 2% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, and revenue growth rates of 51%, 19%, and 5% [7] Group 4 - Key companies in the server supply chain include ODM manufacturers like Wistron, Quanta, and Hon Hai, with Hon Hai being a leader in AI server market share [8] - Liquid cooling manufacturers such as AVC and Auras are highlighted for their roles in the cooling solutions for AI servers, with AVC providing custom cooling solutions for Nvidia's platforms [10][11] - TSMC is recognized as a foundational player in the AI chip and ASIC manufacturing sector, while companies like Chenbro and GCE are noted for their roles in critical components for server manufacturing [12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses **博飞电子 (Bofei Electronics)**, a subsidiary of **电科数字 (Electronics Science and Technology Digital)**, focusing on the **commercial aerospace** sector and its involvement in national-level space computing verification projects [2][3][5]. Core Products and Applications - 博飞电子 is engaged in providing **high-performance computing cards**, **AI chip cards**, and **RF cards** for space computing needs, with a project value of approximately **1 million yuan** [2][6]. - The company is developing an **AI training server** that connects these cards through a high-speed communication architecture to meet computational demands in space [2][18]. - The main products in the commercial aerospace sector include **high-performance computing**, **AI cloud computing**, and **RF equipment**, which are currently undergoing acceptance testing [3][5]. Competitive Advantages and Technology - 博飞电子's core competitive edge lies in its **high security and reliability** in design, leveraging experience from serving specialized industries [19]. - The AI chips used in their products are sourced from **domestic mainstream manufacturers**, ensuring stability and controllability in project execution [20]. Future Development and Strategic Focus - The company aims to achieve **productization** of its devices for satellites and is focusing on **low Earth orbit** applications, including testing equipment and ground computing devices [9][29]. - 博飞电子 is also exploring opportunities in the **commercial aerospace ecosystem** and is actively participating in projects related to the **cyber space forces** [30]. Collaborations and Partnerships - 博飞电子 collaborates with a research institute and 星网 (StarNet) for the national project, with the final operational application being managed by 星网 [7][28]. - The company has received **diamond distributor certification** from Huawei for its subsidiary 华信网络 (Huaxin Network), enabling it to sell and service a full range of products with **384 nodes**, which is expected to significantly enhance revenue [25][27]. Market Position and Financial Outlook - The partnership with Huawei is projected to generate approximately **3 billion yuan** annually, with initial gross margins expected to be higher than previous levels, indicating a favorable financial outlook [27]. - 博飞电子 is also developing its own brand products to improve profit margins beyond just server sales [27]. Additional Insights - The company is involved in the **development of various unmanned devices**, including large drones and small loitering munitions, although specific details are confidential [33]. - 博飞电子's engagement in the **network space forces** aligns with its existing technological capabilities, suggesting a strong future demand in this area [30][32]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting 博飞电子's strategic initiatives, product offerings, competitive advantages, and future growth prospects in the commercial aerospace sector.

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its forecast for rack-level AI server shipments, projecting a decline in expected volumes for 2025 and 2026 due to product transition impacts and supply-demand uncertainties [2][4]. Group 1: AI Server Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs expects AI training servers to remain the main growth driver in the market, but the growth rate is anticipated to be lower than previously expected due to factors such as product transition, production complexity challenges, demand variability, and tariff risks [7]. - The forecast for rack-level AI server shipments has been revised down to 19,000 units in 2025 and 57,000 units in 2026, with market sizes adjusted to $54 billion and $156 billion respectively [8]. Group 2: Impact on Supply Chain Companies - Goldman Sachs has lowered the target prices for several Taiwanese AI server supply chain companies, including Quanta, with reductions ranging from 7% to 21% [3][11]. - The downgrade reflects a shift from rapid growth to more rational expansion in the AI server industry, indicating that while growth is slowing, AI infrastructure investment remains a key growth driver in the tech sector [11]. Group 3: Performance of Different Server Types - High-performance AI servers are not expected to be completely replaced by rack-level solutions, as some customers prefer motherboard solutions for design flexibility [5]. - AI inference servers are projected to see sales growth of 41% and 39% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, driven by expanding application areas [12].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its forecast for rack-level AI server shipments, indicating a slowdown in industry growth due to product transition impacts and supply-demand uncertainties [1][3][8]. Group 1: Shipment Forecast Adjustments - The forecast for rack-level AI server shipments in 2025 and 2026 has been revised down from 31,000 and 66,000 units to 19,000 and 57,000 units, respectively [1]. - The revenue forecast for AI training servers has also been adjusted, with expected growth of 30% in 2025 to reach $160 billion and 63% in 2026 to reach $260 billion, down from previous estimates of $179 billion and $248 billion [3][5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Adjustments - The slowdown in shipments is attributed to several factors, including the transition period for GPU platforms, production complexity challenges, demand variability due to new AI models, and tariff risks affecting ODM manufacturers [4][5]. - The production complexity of full rack systems adds uncertainty to capacity ramp-up, while the release of more efficient AI models raises questions about market demand for intensive computing capabilities [4]. Group 3: Impact on Supply Chain Companies - Goldman Sachs has lowered target prices for several Taiwanese ODM and cooling supply chain companies, including Quanta, Foxconn, FII, Wistron, AVC, and Auras, with reductions ranging from 7% to 21% [1][7]. - Quanta's rating has been downgraded from "Buy" to "Neutral" due to limited upside potential in the current market environment [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The market is transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to more rational expansion, reflecting a shift in the AI server industry [8]. - Despite the slowdown, investment in AI infrastructure remains a key growth driver for the technology sector, although growth will be more moderate than previously expected due to various limiting factors [8].