Core Viewpoint - Industrial Fulian (FII) is expected to enter a strong profit growth phase starting from Q3 2025, driven by increased market share in AI servers, modular AI data centers, network upgrades, and a seasonal boost in the smartphone market [1][4][6]. Group 1: Revenue Growth Drivers - Increased market share in AI servers due to strong R&D and execution capabilities, enabling the launch of next-generation rack-level AI servers [1][6]. - Collaboration between FII's parent company Hon Hai and Delta Electronics is expected to accelerate the deployment of AI data centers, supporting growth in AI server shipments [1][6]. - Rising demand for high-speed connectivity will boost the shipment of network devices, with product upgrades to 400G/800G increasing revenue per unit [1][6]. Group 2: Profitability and Financial Projections - Strong growth in rack-level AI servers is anticipated to drive revenue growth while maintaining disciplined operating expenses, supporting operating profit margins (OPM) [4][6]. - Net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 3%/3%/4% due to higher expected revenues from AI infrastructure and a positive market response [4][6]. - Operating expense ratios are projected to decrease to 1.9%/1.3%/1.2% for 2025-2027, down from 2.3% in Q2 2025, while SG&A expenses are expected to grow at a CAGR of 2% and R&D expenses at a CAGR of 14% [6]. Group 3: Target Price and Investment Rating - The target price has been raised by 13% to RMB 77.2, with the target P/E ratio adjusted from 26.9x to 29.4x based on stronger forward-looking net income growth [4]. - The investment rating remains "Buy" [4][7].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.99%, down 263 points, closing at 26,281 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.18% [1] - Apple-related stocks surged due to strong pre-order demand for new iPhone models, with companies like Q Technology rising by 9%, Sunny Optical Technology increasing by 5.9%, and GoerTek up by 10% [1] - Yihua Tong saw a rise of over 16% after partnering with Toyota to establish a fuel cell company, while also announcing the termination of the acquisition of Xuyang Hydrogen Energy [1] - Hong Teng Precision surged over 17%, benefiting significantly from the ramp-up of rack-level AI servers [1] - Baiguoyuan Group increased by over 22%, planning to raise over 300 million HKD through a share placement, indicating early signs of strategic adjustment effectiveness [1] Group 2 - Kaisa Capital rose by over 10% after a Hong Kong court rejected a winding-up petition against Kaisa Group, as the company expands its RWA business [2] - China Qinfa saw an increase of over 5% due to improved profitability in its Indonesian operations and tax rate advantages on mining license fees [2] - Yunzhihui Technology skyrocketed by over 100%, with a 133% increase in early trading after announcing a global strategic partnership with UBTECH [2] - WuXi AppTec rose by over 6%, reaching a new high after finalizing subscription agreement matters, with WuXi Biologics' shareholding exceeding 50% [2] - Huiju Technology increased by over 11% after OpenAI partnered with Luxshare Precision to develop AI hardware, with the company being a member of the Luxshare system [2] - The demand for Chinese export container shipping appears weak, with ocean freight market rates continuing to adjust, leading to declines in shipping stocks such as COSCO Shipping Energy, which fell over 6%, and Seaspan International, down over 5% [2] - West Air experienced a drop of over 8% following a recent crash of its SR22T single-engine aircraft [2] Group 3 - Hong Kong Broadband fell by over 4% after China Mobile Hong Kong completed a tender offer, planning to raise public shareholding ratio through a share placement [3]

$\mu_{\rm B}=\mu_{\rm B}$. 作者 | 董 静 编辑 | 硬 AI 得益于AI投资热潮的火爆，工业富联股价屡屡创下历史新高，年初迄今累计涨幅超200%，高盛最新的研报，或将给这个"万亿巨头"注入新的"兴奋剂"！ 9月18日，高盛在最新研报中称，预计工业富联将从2025年三季度开始进入强劲的盈利增长周期，主要受益于AI服务器市场份额提升、模块化AI数据中心建设以 及智能手机新产品周期等多重驱动因素。 该行分析师Verena Jeng等在研报中指出， 工业富联在机架级AI服务器领域的先发优势将推动其在AI基础设施市场获得更大份额，母公司鸿海与东元电机的合作 伙伴关系，将加速为客户部署AI数据中心，再加上网络设备升级以及智能手机新品周期 ，都成为驱动驱动盈利增长的重要因素。 基于此，高盛上调2025-2027年净利润预测3%/3%/4%，比彭博一致预期高出4%-14%，显示该行对公司前景明显更为乐观。 这种垂直整合的能力使特斯拉成为目前唯一能将"车+软件+网络平台"三者统一打包的企业。高盛认为，这主要受益于AI服务器市场份额提升、模块化AI数据中心建设、网络设备升级 以及智能手机新品周期等四 ...

得益于AI投资热潮的火爆，工业富联股价屡屡创下历史新高，年初迄今累计涨幅超200%，高盛最新的研报，或将给这个"万亿巨头"注入新的"兴 奋剂"！ 9月18日，高盛在最新研报中称，预计工业富联将从2025年三季度开始进入强劲的盈利增长周期，主要受益于AI服务器市场份额提升、模块化AI 数据中心建设以及智能手机新产品周期等多重驱动因素。 该行分析师Verena Jeng等在研报中指出，工业富联在机架级AI服务器领域的先发优势将推动其在AI基础设施市场获得更大份额，母公司鸿海与东 元电机的合作伙伴关系，将加速为客户部署AI数据中心，再加上网络设备升级以及智能手机新品周期，都成为驱动驱动盈利增长的重要因素。 四大因素驱动增长动力强劲 1、AI服务器市场份额提升 高盛看好工业富联AI服务器业务的多重竞争优势。 基于此，高盛上调2025-2027年净利润预测3%/3%/4%，比彭博一致预期高出4%-14%，显示该行对公司前景明显更为乐观。 同时，高盛继续使用近期市盈率推导12个月目标价，将目标市盈率从此前的26.9倍上调至29.4倍，12个月目标价则上调至77.2元人民币，上调幅度 达到13%，维持买入评级。 研报称，公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of AI technology has led to a global surge in the construction of AI computing power centers, with significant investments from both China and the US, raising concerns about potential bubbles in the market [1][2]. Group 1: US Market Dynamics - The US market is showing signs of potential oversupply in AI computing power, with major companies like Microsoft and Meta announcing substantial investments in data centers, but facing warnings from analysts about a possible adjustment period [4][5]. - Goldman Sachs has revised its sales forecast for rack-level AI servers, reducing expected shipments for 2025 and 2026 significantly [4]. - Concerns about overlapping investments in AI data centers have been raised by industry leaders, indicating a cautious approach to future projects [5]. Group 2: China's Computing Power Landscape - China's computing power capacity is on the rise, with a total scale of 246 EFLOPS expected by September 2024, ranking second globally, and a growth rate exceeding 70% in intelligent computing power [7]. - Despite the overall increase in computing power, there are structural shortages in intelligent computing resources, leading to inefficiencies in resource allocation [7][8]. - Recommendations for improvement include enhancing coordination through national planning, accelerating self-research in high-end chips and software, and promoting green computing initiatives [8]. Group 3: Industry Adjustments - The data center industry in China is experiencing a decline in profit margins among third-party IDC service providers due to increased competition and changing business structures [11]. - Major IDC companies like GDS and DataPort are showing slower revenue growth despite ongoing construction efforts, indicating a cooling off from previous peaks [12][13]. - The current adjustment phase in the computing power sector reflects both necessary investments for the digital economy and some irrational exuberance, similar to the post-dot-com bubble era [13].

点击 上方 硬AI 关注我们 硬·AI 作者 |鲍亦龙 编辑 | 硬 AI 高盛下调AI服务器出货量预测，行业增长面临放缓。 3月24日，高盛分析师团队下调了机架级AI服务器(Rack-level AI Server)销量预测， 2025年及2026年预 计出货量分别从3.1万台和6.6万台下调至1.9万台和5.7万台（以144-GPU等效计算） 。 这一调整主要源 于产品过渡期影响以及供需的不确定性。 高盛认为虽然2025年第二季度对中国台湾ODM/散热供应链来说将是强劲的季度，但高盛对全年出货量持 更为保守的态度，并预计 产品转型期可能在2025年第三季度再次对出货量造成影响 。 因此高盛相应 下调了中国台湾ODM和散热供应链相关公司 （广达、鸿海、FII、纬创、艾维克、双鸿）的 目标价，降幅在7%-21%之间 ， 并将广达电脑评级从"买入"下调至"中性"。 此外，高盛认为对投资者而 言，ASIC AI服务器相关企业表现普遍优于GPU AI服务器供应商，这一趋势可能将持续。 高盛认为产品过渡期影响、供需不确定性以及生产复杂性挑战等因素，将导致市场增长面临放缓，将2025年和2026年机 架级AI服务器出货 ...

高盛分析师团队预计， AI训练服务器仍将是市场增长的主要驱动力，这主要由不断升级的高级AI模型对计算能力的需求所推动 。然而， 其出货量增速预计将 低于此前预期 ，主要受以下因素影响： 因此高盛同样调整了AI训练服务器的收入，预计相关收入将在2025年同比增长30%，达到1600亿美元；2026年同比增长63%，达到2600亿美元。 此前的预测 分别为1790亿美元和2480亿美元。 高盛下调AI服务器出货量预测，行业增长面临放缓。 3月24日，高盛分析师团队下调了机架级AI服务器(Rack-level AI Server)销量预测， 2025年及2026年预计出货量分别从3.1万台和6.6万台下调至1.9万台和5.7 万台（以144-GPU等效计算）。这一调整主要源于产品过渡期影响以及供需的不确定性。 高盛认为虽然2025年第二季度对中国台湾ODM/散热供应链来说将是强劲的季度，但高盛对全年出货量持更为保守的态度，并预计 产品转型期可能在2025年第 三季度再次对出货量造成影响 。 因此高盛相应 下调了中国台湾ODM和散热供应链相关公司 （广达、鸿海、FII、纬创、艾维克、双鸿）的 目标价，降幅在7%-21 ...

屋漏偏逢连夜雨！ 在小盘股风格不顺的背景之下，算力、人工智能等板块股票再度大幅杀跌。寒武纪一度大跌超7%，首都在 线、锦鸡股份、甘咨询、浙大网新等集体杀跌。港股方面，华虹半导体跌超6%，金山云跌近6%，微盟集团跌 6.83%，中国软件国际、万国数据跌超4%，商汤跌超2%。 分析人士认为，这类股票大跌与两则消息有关。一是阿里巴巴主席蔡崇信表示，他开始看到人工智能数据中心 建设出现泡沫苗头，美国的许多数据中心投资公告都是"重复"或相互重叠；二是高盛分析师团队下调了机架级 AI服务器（Rack-level AI Server）销量预测，2025年及2026年预计出货量分别从3.1万台和6.6万台下调至 1.9万台和5.7万台（以144-GPU等效计算）。这一调整主要源于产品过渡期影响以及供需的不确定性。 大跳水 3月25日午后，恒生科技指数跌幅扩大至4%，成份股全线飘绿，比亚迪电子、舜宇光学科技跌超11%。算力 和人工智能相关股票全线大跌，万国数据、金山云跌幅都一度超过6%，小米集团、金蝶国际、中兴通讯、明 源云等跌幅居前。 此次降级之际，高盛分析师预计，2025年和2026 年机架级 AI 服务器的预期数量将会下 ...