11月19日，英伟达发布了2026财年第三季度的报告。 以下文章来源于36氪财经 ，作者丁卯 张帆 36氪财经 . 36氪旗下官方账号。洞见市场，比99%的投资者更聪明。 AI算力需求引爆存储涨价， 通过挤出效应冲击传统消费电子利润。 文 ｜ 丁卯 编辑 ｜ 张帆 来源｜ 36氪财经（ID：krfinance） 封面来源 ｜ 视觉中国 数据显示，FY26Q3，英伟达实现营收570亿美元，同比增长62%， 季度环比增长创纪录地达到100亿美元，增速为 22%，大超市场预期。其中，最受市场 关注的数据中心业务收入达到了512亿美元，同比增长66%，环比增长25%。 利润方面，本季度，英伟达毛利率达到了73.4%，同期净利润为319.1亿美元，同比增长65%，对应净利率56%。 英伟达强劲的业绩表现以及电话会中对于AI泡沫等核心关注点的有力回应，一定程度上弱化了近期市场对于AI估值过高的担忧，并强化了算力需求依然 处于指数级爆发阶段的预期。 然而， 这种对算力 刚性需求 正迅速转化为关键上游供应链的巨大压力。 电话会中， 英伟达指出， 代工、存储、电力等环节 已成为满足未来增长的关键 瓶颈 。 今年以来， 在AI需 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's Q3 net profit reached a historic high of 11.3 billion RMB, exceeding Wall Street expectations, but the stock price fell nearly 5% post-announcement due to concerns over rising memory costs and the potential impact of the 2026 electric vehicle tax subsidy withdrawal [1][3]. Financial Performance - Xiaomi's adjusted net profit for Q3 was 11.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 81%, surpassing Wall Street forecasts [3]. - The electric vehicle and AI innovation segments reported operational profits of 700 million RMB for the first time [3]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Major Wall Street firms, including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, maintained "buy" or "overweight" ratings, but their target prices varied significantly [3]. - Citigroup lowered its target price from 65 HKD to 50 HKD, while Goldman Sachs reduced its target from 56.5 HKD to 53.5 HKD, and Morgan Stanley kept its target at 62 HKD [3]. Smartphone Business Challenges - Analysts agree that rising memory chip prices driven by AI demand pose a long-term structural challenge, suppressing overall industry profits [5]. - Xiaomi's strategy to prioritize market share over short-term margins has received broad support from analysts [5]. - The company aims to lock in memory supply by 2026 and focus on increasing average selling prices (ASP) while targeting 30 million high-end device shipments by 2030 [5]. Electric Vehicle Business Growth - The electric vehicle segment achieved a significant milestone with operational profits of 700 million RMB in Q3, marking it as a new growth engine for Xiaomi [7]. - Q3 revenue from the electric vehicle business reached 29 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 199.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36% [9]. - The delivery volume for the quarter was 108,800 units, with October alone reaching 48,600 units [9]. Diverging Predictions on Future Performance - Citigroup has lowered its smartphone shipment forecasts for 2025-2027 to 170 million, 160 million, and 166 million units, with corresponding gross margin predictions adjusted downward [8]. - Goldman Sachs also warned of margin pressures, predicting a smartphone gross margin of 8.8% for 2026, down about 1 percentage point [8]. - Morgan Stanley noted that the increase in terminal prices can only partially offset rising memory costs, indicating a reliance on product mix optimization and cost control measures [8]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite differing predictions, all three major investment banks maintain a positive outlook on Xiaomi's electric vehicle business, with Citigroup highlighting new model releases and consumer subsidy updates as catalysts [9]. - Goldman Sachs believes the risk-reward ratio remains favorable for investors, while Morgan Stanley emphasizes that news about new models in the next 3-6 months will be crucial for stock price movements [9].

Core Viewpoint - Despite a strong financial report, Xiaomi Group's stock price continues to decline, reflecting market concerns over its smartphone business and external challenges [2][11]. Financial Performance - Xiaomi has reported impressive financial results, achieving over 100 billion yuan in revenue for four consecutive quarters [3]. - In Q3 2025, Xiaomi's revenue reached 1131.21 billion yuan, a 22.3% increase year-over-year, but a 2.4% decrease from the previous quarter [3]. - The gross profit for Q3 2025 was 259.36 billion yuan, up 37.4% from the same period last year [5]. - Operating profit for Q3 2025 was 151.1 billion yuan, a significant increase of 150.1% year-over-year, with an operating profit margin of 13.4%, the highest in recent years [7]. - Net profit for Q3 2025 was 122.56 billion yuan, up 129.5% year-over-year, while adjusted net profit was 113.11 billion yuan, an 80.9% increase year-over-year [7]. New Business Developments - Xiaomi's electric vehicle segment has shown substantial progress, achieving quarterly profitability for the first time [8]. - Revenue from the electric vehicle and AI innovation segment reached 290 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-over-year increase of over 199% [10]. - Over 100,000 new electric vehicles were delivered in Q3 2025, with total deliveries exceeding 260,000 units for the first three quarters [10]. Market Challenges - The smartphone business, which accounts for approximately 40% of revenue, is facing pressure from unprecedented price increases in global storage chips, impacting profit margins [11]. - Concerns about the sustainability of Xiaomi's "price for volume" strategy in the smartphone market are growing [11]. - The recent high-profile stock placement has led to concerns about share dilution, with participating institutions facing significant losses [11]. - The lack of new product catalysts has resulted in increased short-selling activity, with hedge funds significantly increasing their short positions [11]. Brand Image and Leadership Issues - Recent controversies surrounding Xiaomi's brand image and safety concerns related to its vehicles have negatively impacted investor sentiment [12][14]. - Founder Lei Jun has faced criticism, with public perception shifting from a positive image to one of controversy due to safety incidents and perceived inadequate responses [14]. - Analysts suggest that Xiaomi needs to separate its brand from Lei Jun's personal image to mitigate risks associated with negative public sentiment [14].

全球消费电子市场的未来前景正因存储价格的飙升而蒙上阴影。存储元器件价格持续攀升，以智能手 机、笔记本电脑为代表的消费电子产品未来生产出货预期被下调。 11月17日，《中国经营报》记者从TrendForce集邦咨询获悉，该机构下修2026年全球智能手机及笔记本 电脑的生产出货预测，从原先的年增0.1%及1.7%，分别调降至年减2%及2.4%。 根据TrendForce集邦咨询的观点指出，2026年全球市场仍面临不确定性，通胀持续干扰消费市场表现， 更关键的是，存储器步入强劲上行周期，导致整机成本上扬，并将迫使终端定价上调，进而冲击消费市 场。基于此，下修手机和笔记本电脑2026年的生产出货量预测。此外，该机构表示，若存储器供需失衡 加剧，终端产品售价上调幅度或超出预期，生产出货预测仍有进一步下修风险。 存储价格持续上涨终端厂商被传暂缓采购 存储芯片市场价格持续上涨不仅向终端产品定价传导压力，也引发了市场对终端厂商采购策略的关注。 近日，有媒体报道称，多家手机厂商已经暂缓了本季度的存储芯片采购，小米、OPPO、vivo等厂商相 关库存普遍低于两个月，部分厂商DRAM（动态随机存取存储器）库存低于三周，在犹豫是否接 ...

消息面上，2025年下半年以来，全球存储芯片行业迎来了一场罕见的普涨行情。近日，有媒体报道称， 多家手机厂商已经暂缓了本季度的存储芯片采购。OPPO、vivo等厂商库存普遍低于两个月，部分厂商 DRAM库存低于三周，在犹豫是否接受原厂接近50%的涨幅报价。 根据TrendForce集邦咨询表示，存储器步入强劲上行周期，导致整机成本上扬，并将迫使终端定价上 调，进而冲击消费市场。该机构下修2026年全球智能手机及笔记本电脑的生产出货预测，从原先的年增 0.1%及1.7%，分别调降至年减2%及2.4%。此外，若存储器供需失衡加剧，或终端售价上调幅度超出预 期，生产出货预测仍有进一步下修风险。 智通财经APP获悉，手机产业链全线走低，截至发稿，丘钛科技(01478)跌7.12%，报9.91港元；高伟电 子(01415)跌4.8%，报27.36港元；鸿腾精密(06088)跌4.64%，报4.93港元；比亚迪电子(00285)跌3.24%， 报32.9港元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the overheating demand for AI has led to a structural supply-demand imbalance in the global storage chip market, particularly with increased demand for DRAM from data centers [1] - Samsung Electronics has suspended DDR5 contract pricing, prompting other manufacturers like SK Hynix and Micron to follow suit, resulting in a disruption of the DDR5 supply chain and an increase in spot prices [1] - TrendForce indicates that DDR5 pricing has become passive with limited transactions, shifting to a monthly pricing model [1] Group 2 - The four major CSP companies in the U.S. have raised capital expenditures, driving demand for high-end storage chips, while manufacturers are reallocating production capacity towards more profitable DDR5 and HBM products [1] - The expansion of production capacity is costly and time-consuming, making it difficult to alleviate the supply-demand gap in the short term [1] - In Q3 2025, global smartphone revenue is projected to grow by 5% year-on-year, reaching a historical high, with the trend towards high-end models pushing the average selling price to $351 [1] Group 3 - The chip ETF (512760) tracks the China Semiconductor Chip Index (990001), which focuses on the Chinese semiconductor industry by selecting listed companies involved in materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing [1] - This index includes no more than 40 constituent stocks, emphasizing the information technology sector and reflecting the overall performance of listed companies related to semiconductor chips [1]

Core Insights - The price of various storage products has significantly increased, with some products experiencing price hikes of up to three times since April 2023, leading to a phenomenon where memory modules are referred to as "black gold bars" [1][2][3] Price Trends - The price of a 64GB LPDDR5 memory module has surged from around 1,000 yuan to 4,200 yuan, marking a threefold increase [2] - The price of a 16GB DDR4 memory module has risen from under 200 yuan to over 400 yuan [2] - Many vendors in Huaqiangbei have seen their paper wealth increase by millions due to the price surge [2] Market Dynamics - The current price surge is attributed to a supply-demand imbalance, primarily driven by increased demand from AI data centers [4][5] - Major tech companies like Alibaba and Microsoft are investing heavily in AI infrastructure, further driving the demand for storage chips [4] - The demand for high-end storage products is significantly higher, with AI servers requiring 3 to 8 times more DRAM and NAND than standard servers [4][5] Supply Chain Adjustments - Major storage manufacturers like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are prioritizing high-margin products, leading to a reduction in the production of lower-margin products like DDR4 [5][6] - The ongoing supply constraints are expected to continue until supply and demand reach a balance, potentially lasting 1 to 2 years [6] Impact on Consumer Electronics - The rising costs of storage products are affecting the prices of consumer electronics, including computers and smartphones, with assembly costs increasing by at least 200 yuan per unit [7] - New smartphone models have seen significant price increases, with Xiaomi's Redmi K90 series experiencing a price hike of 600 yuan for higher storage configurations [7] Opportunities for Domestic Manufacturers - The current shortage in the storage market presents a valuable opportunity for domestic manufacturers to capture market share as global supply remains constrained [8]

小米集团-W(01810)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.68%，报44.56港元，成交额38.55亿港元。 国盛证券（002670）近期研报指出，小米手机产品结构的持续优化或对手机毛利率带来正向贡献。但考 虑到全球存储芯片市场迎来涨价潮，成本端压力加大，该行预计公司Q3和Q4手机毛利率将维持在11% 左右。此外，该行认为，虽然国补降低可能对家电赛道增长造成一定的影响，但凭借产品品质优势与供 应链管控能力，小米在IoT领域的综合竞争力有望保持稳健。 消息面上，小米发布2025年双11战报，截至11月11日23:59:59，全渠道累计支付金额破290亿元。据了 解，今年双11，小米号称让利20亿，单品最高立省4000元，活动产品涵盖手机、数码、家电等各种品 类。 ...

来源：@华夏时报微博 【"涨"声响起！#手机电脑可能要涨价#】#手机电脑或将涨价#近日，全球存储芯片市场掀起一轮涨价浪 潮。存储芯片作为关键元器件，其价格飙升将不可避免地传导至手机、PC(个人计算机)等下游终端产 品。艾媒咨询首席分析师张毅对@中新经纬 表示智能手机由于单机存储容量大，对成本变化极为敏 感，因此成为受本轮涨价影响最直接、最明显的行业。消费者未来可能需要为手机支付更高的价格。而 随着AI PC对内存规格要求的提升，存储芯片成本的增加将直接推高PC的制造成本，最终也很可能反映 到产品的市场售价上。 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices opened high on November 11, but subsequently experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.29% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.13%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.10% [2][3]. Battery Sector Performance - Battery concept stocks saw multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, with Shen Gong Co., Ltd. experiencing a 20% surge, closing at 73.43 CNY, and achieving a trading volume of 1.29 million shares [10][12]. - Other notable performers in the battery sector included Zhonglai Co., Ltd. and Tuo Ri New Energy, both of which also reached their daily limit [15][17]. Semiconductor Sector Activity - The storage chip sector was notably active, with SanDisk announcing a significant price increase of up to 50% for NAND flash contracts, causing a ripple effect throughout the storage supply chain [13]. - Shen Gong Co., Ltd. recorded a trading volume of 2.14 million shares, indicating strong market interest [10]. Stock Performance Highlights - Zhonglai Co., Ltd. saw a price increase of 20.06%, closing at 8.02 CNY, with a trading volume of 8.9 million shares [12][16]. - Other stocks that performed well included Tuo Ri New Energy, which rose by 10.13%, and Yi Jing Optoelectronics, which increased by 10.11% [12][17]. Technological Advancements - The research team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences achieved a significant breakthrough in perovskite solar cells, developing a prototype with a power conversion efficiency of 27.2%, which enhances the stability of the cells and lays a foundation for industrialization [18][19].