高盛预计，在充满挑战的个人电脑市场中，全球龙头企业相对更具韧性，因为它们通常在供应链中拥有 更强的议价能力，且高端个人电脑业务占比更高，而高端市场对价格敏感度较低。即将举行的 2026 年 国际消费电子展(CES)可能成为短期催化剂，预计将有更多人工智能 PC 亮相，可能搭载 2025 年 10 月 发布的最新 Panther Lake 平台，该平台运算性能最高可达 180 万亿次 / 秒(TOPS)。2024 年人工智能 PC 已经进入下一代，神经网络处理器(NPU)性能超过 40 万亿次 / 秒，使个人电脑能够在本地运行部分 Copilot 功能，并更快生成内容(例如文本生成图片的速度从 22 秒缩短至 7 秒)。买入标的：联想集团。 (6)智能手机：2026 年苹果供应商将脱颖而出。2024-2025 年安卓智能手机需求疲软且产品发布相对清 淡，但 2026 年可能更为激进，尤其是可折叠 iPhone 出货量将逐步增长；不过需注意，存储成本上涨可 能导致部分产品降配； 知名大行高盛展望2026年科技企业十大趋势，报告如下： (1)人工智能服务器：ASIC表现强劲，800G/1.6T 高速连接推动供应链增 ...

本周，彭博科技行业分析师 Woo Jin Ho发布研报称，戴尔、联想、惠普具备应对个人电脑DRAM市场 冲击的能力。 观点认为，联想、戴尔、惠普、苹果和宏碁等领先个人电脑制造商，凭借健康的库存水平、优越的市场 份额带来的采购规模优势，以及将成本转嫁给客户的能力，具备足够的能力抵御2026年下半年DRAM价 格上涨的影响。 其余占据其余25%市场份额的厂商对应约6,500万-7,000万台个人电脑，但它们可能需要以更高的溢价采 购内存，难以实施具有竞争力的定价策略。这为头部厂商在中低价位区间进一步扩大市场份额创造了机 会。 报告预计，2026年AI个人电脑预计将占总出货量的54%，高于2025年的34%；而其中算力低于40 TOPS 的AI个人电脑将占总出货量的32%，占AI个人电脑需求的62%。 除了AI，Windows 11升级在2026年仍将是戴尔、联想及惠普出货量的主要催化剂。当前的Windows 11 升级进度已经落后于以往周期。目前，约有35%-40%的Windows个人电脑仍在使用旧版操作系统。这一 升级在个人电脑价格上涨背景下应有助于支撑出货量，尤其是对上述三家在商用个人电脑领域占据领先 地位的 ...

本周，彭博科技行业分析师 Woo Jin Ho发布研报称，戴尔、联想、惠普具备应对个人电脑DRAM市场 冲击的能力。 观点认为，联想、戴尔、惠普、苹果和宏碁等领先个人电脑制造商，凭借健康的库存水平、优越的市场 份额带来的采购规模优势，以及将成本转嫁给客户的能力，具备足够的能力抵御2026年下半年DRAM价 格上涨的影响。 凭借采购量和规模优势，联想、惠普、戴尔、苹果和宏碁这五大个人电脑制造商有望获得小幅市场份额 提升。这五大厂商加之其在服务器、智能手机和企业存储市场占据领军地位，料将具有更强的采购能 力，并更可能获得内存供应的优先权。 其余占据其余25%市场份额的厂商对应约6,500万-7,000万台个人电脑，但它们可能需要以更高的溢价采 购内存，难以实施具有竞争力的定价策略。这为头部厂商在中低价位区间进一步扩大市场份额创造了机 会。 报告预计，2026年AI个人电脑预计将占总出货量的54%，高于2025年的34%；而其中算力低于40 TOPS 的AI个人电脑将占总出货量的32%，占AI个人电脑需求的62%。 除了AI，Windows 11升级在2026年仍将是戴尔、联想及惠普出货量的主要催化剂。当前的Win ...

中国山东省的青岛港（kyodo） 汽车大幅增长50％。稀土也高于去年同期。对美出口下降28.6％，对日本出口增长4.3％…… 中国海关总署12月8日发布的11月贸易统计（以美元计价）数据显示，出口同比增长5.9％，达到3303亿 美元。2个月来再次转为增长。包含纯电动汽车（EV）在内的汽车出货量增加。 进口同比增长1.9％，达到2186亿美元，连续6个月实现正增长。出口额减去进口额得出的贸易顺差为 1116亿美元。由于出口增幅高于进口增幅，贸易顺差规模相较于去年同期有所扩大。 从出口品类来看，汽车大幅增长50％。稀土也高于去年同期。智能手机和个人电脑则分别低于去年同 期。 从出口目的地来看，对美出口下降28.6％。对最大出口目的地东盟（ASEAN）出口增长8.2％。对日本 出口增长4.3％。对欧盟（EU）出口也高于去年同期。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）盐崎健太郎 北京 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 视频号推荐内容： ...

Group 1 - Major global IT companies are continuously investing in artificial intelligence and significantly acquiring DRAM and flash memory semiconductor products, while smaller capacity PC memory and solid-state drives are facing price increases and supply shortages [1] - The primary driver of rising memory prices is the demand from AI-related enterprises, with major companies planning to double their production capacity and processing power annually over the next three years [1] - Major DRAM suppliers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have notified PC manufacturers to halt production of DDR4 products and announced price increases for existing products [3] Group 2 - The sales costs for personal computer manufacturers have significantly increased due to rising memory supply prices since October, leading to losses, and new products are expected to see price increases of at least 20% next year [3][4] - Memory price fluctuations have become more pronounced since October, with prices doubling every ten days, and even the largest companies may only receive about half of their orders next year [3][4] - The only solution to the rising costs is for major memory manufacturers to increase production of DDR5 and LPDDR5 memory, or for new suppliers to emerge [4][6] Group 3 - Major memory manufacturers are focusing on increasing the production of high-value products like HBM, which have clear demand and high prices, rather than existing memory products [6] - The reduction in memory supply may lead to a decline in personal computer production, with market research firms like IDC and Gartner already lowering their PC shipment forecasts for next year [6] - The distribution model for personal computers is expected to change, with no likelihood of discounted inventory sales until at least 2028, and it is advisable to purchase personal computers within a year if possible [6]

不同地区的市场情况存在显著差异。IDC数据显示，今年第二季度，美国PC市场出现零增长，世界其他 地区同比增长9%；到了第三季度，IDC统计口径有所调整，其中美洲地区PC市场仅增长1%。而在更早 的第一季度，PC产业链企业为应对关税政策调整曾加快对美国市场的出货节奏，随之带来的是渠道库 存大幅增加。与此同时,消费者支出减弱，这也导致接下来几个季度的增长放缓。 IDC 全球移动设备跟踪项目研究副总裁让・菲利普・布沙尔（Jean Philippe Bouchard）表示："该市场持 续受到美国进口关税冲击与宏观经济不确定性的影响。尽管存在这些因素，但市场对适配Windows 11 的新款个人电脑的需求很可能会持续至2026年。"此前，另一家机构Canalys预计关税影响下2025年美国 PC市场出货量增幅仅约2%。 全球PC出货量持续增长，但美国PC市场被关税"绊住"，需求持续放缓。 北京时间10月9日，国际数据公司（IDC）发布了《全球季度个人计算设备跟踪报告》初步数据，2025 年第三季度全球PC出货量同比增长9.4%，总出货量达 7580万台。 从各家PC厂商的市场份额看，联想集团、惠普、戴尔、苹果、华硕位列 ...

Core Insights - The global traditional PC market is showing strong growth, with shipments reaching 75.9 million units in Q3 2025, a 9.4% increase from 69.3 million units in Q3 2024 [1][2] - Lenovo has maintained its position as the leading PC manufacturer, achieving a market share of 25.5% with shipments of 19.4 million units, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 17.3%, significantly outpacing the market average [1][2] Company Performance - Lenovo's market share increased by 1.7 percentage points from 23.8% in Q3 2024, widening its lead over HP Inc., which holds a 19.8% market share [2] - HP Inc. and Dell Technologies reported year-over-year growth rates of 10.7% and 2.6%, respectively, with Dell's market share declining from 14.2% to 13.3% [2][3] - Lenovo's operational efficiency, including its ODM+ manufacturing model and flexible global/local operational strategy, has contributed to its strong performance [3] Market Trends - The PC industry is transitioning from a traditional OS-driven cycle to an innovation cycle driven by AI capabilities and new application scenarios [3] - Canalys forecasts that AI PC shipments will account for 70% of the market by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 44% from 2024 to 2028 [4] Strategic Initiatives - Lenovo is actively pursuing its "hybrid AI" vision, which encompasses a full-stack solution for personal and enterprise AI, aiming to provide a secure and reliable AI-driven work environment [4] - In the recent Q1 FY25/26 report, Lenovo's AI PC shipments accounted for over 30% of total PC shipments, positioning the company as a leader in the Windows AI PC market [5]

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group (00992) is expected to outperform market expectations for its first fiscal quarter ending June 30, primarily due to a shift in capital expenditure from AI servers to general servers, leading to strong growth in server revenue [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Lenovo's stock rose over 3%, currently at HKD 77.5, with a trading volume of HKD 235 million [1] - Nomura's report anticipates that Lenovo's performance will exceed market expectations for the first fiscal quarter [1] Group 2: Market Position - Lenovo is gaining market share in the personal computer sector from competitors like Dell and HP, which is expected to enhance overall sales and profitability for the quarter ending June 30 [1] - Despite earlier order lead times in the upstream supply chain for personal computers, the impact on downstream brand shipment forecasts is expected to be limited, allowing Lenovo to continue increasing its market share [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the App Store's net income has increased by 12.5% year-to-date, surpassing Morgan Stanley's second-quarter forecast by 150 basis points, and reflecting a 40 basis point outperformance in the services business [1] - Morgan Stanley has raised its global cloud capital expenditure forecast for 2025 to $406 billion, representing a 43% year-on-year growth, which is an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The growth in cloud capital expenditure is driven by upward revisions from Oracle and Alibaba, indicating ongoing expansion in the cloud computing sector and strategic investments by industry giants [1] Group 2 - In the personal computer sector, the latest order delivery data for notebook ODMs shows a slight upward trend in second-quarter shipments, but there is high uncertainty regarding demand in the second half of 2025, leading to a cautious outlook for the third quarter [2] - Specifically, third-quarter notebook shipments are projected to be 10% lower than expected, with ODM order delivery volumes below normal seasonal levels [2] - The report also highlights a positive trend in IBM's consulting job postings, which have increased by 33% since the end of the first quarter, with a rolling 90-day average up by 36% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that CICC has lowered Lenovo Group's target price by 12% to HKD 13.78 while maintaining an "outperform" rating due to the release of a new super intelligent agent that marks progress towards hybrid artificial intelligence [1] - CICC believes that the launch of the super intelligent agent, which covers all application scenarios, defines its core functions for the first time [1] - The adjustment in Lenovo's target price reflects a decrease in the average valuation of the personal computer industry due to trade tensions, with the new target price corresponding to a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times for the fiscal year 2026 [1]