国金证券近日发布非金属建材周观点：本周全国高标均价349元/t，同比-53元/t，环比-2 元/t，全国平均出货率44.5%，环比-1.9pct，库容比为66.7%，环比+1.1pct，同比+2.7pct。玻 璃：本周浮法均价1289.81元/吨，环比上涨65.07元/吨，涨幅5.31%，截至9月30日重点监测 省份生产企业库存天数约24.8天，较上周四减少1.38天。截至本周四，2.0mm镀膜面板主流 订单价格13元/平左右，环比持平。 ①9月29日，中材科技公告称，拟定增募资不超过44.8亿元，用于年产3,500万米低介电 纤维布项目、年产2,400万米超低损耗低介电纤维布项目、偿还国拨资金专项应付款、补充 流动资金。②10月8日，华新水泥发布公告：拟向激励对象11人授予限制性股票257.8万股； 拟斥3225.0万-6450.0万元回购公司股份，回购股份价格不超25元/股；公司终止筹划境外子 公司分拆上市；公司拟更名为"华新建材"，证券代码未变。③10月10日，中材国际发布2025 年第三季度主要经营数据。 风险提示： 【周期联动】 ①水泥：本周全国高标均价349元/t，同比-53元/t，环比-2元/t ...

Group 1 - The AI new materials market experienced significant volatility this week, with adjustments on September 3-4 and a rebound on the 5th, influenced by market sentiment [1][2] - There has been no significant change in the fundamentals for AI copper foil and AI electronic cloth, maintaining a tight supply of high-end products, with a continued positive outlook on technology materials [2][3] - The price of photovoltaic glass increased week-on-week, coupled with expectations of reduced competition, indicating potential for phase profit recovery [3][4] Group 2 - The national average price of cement this week was 343 RMB/t, down 40 RMB year-on-year and down 2 RMB week-on-week, with an average shipment rate of 45.73%, up 0.13 percentage points week-on-week [4] - The average price of float glass this week was 1192.99 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3.32 RMB/ton, reflecting a 0.28% rise [4] - The domestic price of fiberglass remained stable, with the average price of 2400tex alkali-free winding direct yarn at 3521.25 RMB/ton [4][5] Group 3 - The cement industry is expected to benefit from long-term capacity reduction effects due to "checking overproduction," which will push the industry's profit center upward [3] - The establishment of the China Building Waterproof Association's repair and waterproofing branch on September 4 indicates a move towards industry consolidation and standardization [6] - The "anti-involution" initiative proposed by the China Glass Fiber Industry Association aims to address competitive pressures within the fiberglass sector [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes optimism towards AI electronic cloth and AI copper foil, suggesting that the market potential may exceed expectations [1][3] - The report highlights the increasing competition in the AI new materials industry, with many leading companies entering the market, leading to divergent opinions among market participants [2] - The analysis suggests focusing on two types of companies: "grand slam" leaders like Zhongcai for electronic cloth and Tongguan for copper foil, and those with survival space that can achieve widespread use, indicating rapid technological maturity and cost reduction [3] Group 2 - The report indicates a high growth forecast for Keda Manufacturing, a leading local manufacturer in Africa, as the region seeks to enhance local supply chains and manufacturing capabilities [4] - Current market data shows the national average price for cement at 344 RMB per ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 35 RMB, and an average delivery rate of 29.17%, reflecting a decline [5] - Important corporate movements include Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement releasing their semi-annual reports, and Huaxin Cement completing the acquisition of assets in Nigeria [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the PCB upstream industry chain, particularly focusing on copper foil, electronic cloth, and equipment [1][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the price trends of AI copper foil and the recent price increases announced by several CCL companies, indicating a favorable market environment for AI copper foil due to low domestic replacement rates and a healthy competitive landscape [1][11]. - The report highlights the robust growth potential in the African building materials sector, particularly for local manufacturing companies like Keda Manufacturing, which is expected to benefit from increased local production and supply chain protection [12][13]. - Traditional building materials are showing signs of recovery, with improved land acquisition sentiment and a potential stabilization in new construction starts, suggesting a positive trend for the real estate sector [13]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Continued recommendation for PCB upstream industry chain, focusing on AI copper foil, electronic cloth, and equipment due to favorable market conditions and limited domestic competition [1][11]. Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices are under pressure, with a national average of 340 RMB/t, down 42 RMB year-on-year, while glass prices are declining, indicating a challenging environment for these sectors [14][15]. - The report suggests that the demand for AI materials, particularly high-end copper foil and special fiberglass, remains strong, with price trends serving as key indicators of market health [15][16]. Market Performance - The building materials index showed a positive performance of 4.07% during the week, with specific segments like fiberglass and cement also reflecting gains, indicating a recovering market sentiment [18][29]. Building Materials Price Changes - National cement prices increased by 0.2% week-on-week, with regional variations in price adjustments, reflecting a gradual recovery in demand as weather conditions improve [29][30]. - The floating glass market continues to face challenges, with prices declining and inventory pressures persisting, although some signs of demand recovery are noted [39][40]. Fiberglass Market - The domestic fiberglass market remains stable, with prices holding steady, while electronic cloth prices are also stable, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario [61][62]. Carbon Fiber Market - The carbon fiber market is stable, with prices averaging 83.75 RMB/kg, reflecting steady production rates and cautious demand from downstream industries [67][68].

Group 1: Organic Silicon Industry - The consumption of organic silicon has surged by 20.9% driven by the new energy sector, alongside a 34.2% increase in exports, indicating a reversal signal at the bottom of the cycle [2][3] - The domestic organic silicon industry's profitability has been under pressure due to accelerated capacity expansion over the past three years, but the supply side is now limited with uncertain new capacity coming online [3][5] - Demand is stabilizing in the real estate sector, while emerging fields like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles are expected to contribute significant demand growth [3][5] Group 2: Copper Foil Industry - The copper foil industry is transitioning from "quantity" to "quality," with a clear trend towards high-end products, and structural shortages in high-performance copper foil are expected to enhance profitability by 2025 [6][8] - Leading copper foil manufacturers are currently focusing on sample distribution and small batch shipments, with an upward trend in profitability as sales structures improve [6][8] - Domestic manufacturers focusing on high-value-added copper foil are encouraged, as new products are expected to support the upward shift in profitability [8]

Group 1: Patent and Product Development - The company has recently added a patent for a lithium-copper integrated composite anode material, addressing long-standing issues in lithium battery anodes such as interfacial impedance and lithium dendrite growth [2] - The patent product is not yet in mass production, but the company is leveraging its R&D and manufacturing capabilities to ensure efficiency and cost control [2] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Progress - The company has developed technologies and products related to lithium-copper composite anode materials for solid-state batteries and is collaborating with customers for future production based on market demand [3] Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions - The company is exploring new business growth points through cooperation, investment, and acquisitions, focusing on the demand potential in sectors like new energy vehicles and data centers [4] Group 4: Processing Fees and Market Dynamics - The processing fees for copper foil products have been on the rise since the second quarter, influenced by raw material costs and market dynamics [5] Group 5: AI Copper Foil Production Line - The company invested 100 million in the Yunmeng base to build an AI copper foil production line, targeting high-end markets such as graphics cards and AI servers [6][7] - The company has achieved bulk sales to several leading customers, although production capacity remains limited [7] Group 6: Financial Impact of Payment Terms - The implementation of the "Regulations on Payment of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" is expected to positively impact financial health by accelerating cash flow and reducing financing costs [7]