Group 1 - The strong U.S. employment data has diminished market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to a significant rise in the dollar index and a decline in spot gold prices [1][2] - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February [1][2] - The likelihood of a rate cut in July is now considered nearly zero, with a 75% probability for a cut in September, indicating a resilient labor market [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that geopolitical factors will support gold prices in the long term, despite a decrease in rate cut expectations [3] - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves due to rising dollar credit risks and strategic asset allocation needs [3] - The performance of gold assets remains strong during both overheating and recessionary economic cycles, making gold ETFs a viable investment option [3][5] Group 3 - The gold ETF (159937) experienced a decline of 0.8% on July 4, with a trading volume of 239 million yuan, but has seen a 4.08% increase over the past month [5] - The net inflow of funds into the gold ETF over the last five days was 447 million yuan, indicating continued investor interest [5]

| 774.70 | | --- | | +4.00 +0.52% | | 最 高 775.90 最 低 772.80 成交额 17.2亿 | 本周，金价有所回升，尽管周四伦敦金现货价格微跌，但结束了上周大幅走弱态势，收复3300美元/盎司失地，国内AU9999也涨0.52%到774元/克上方， 整体处于震荡向上区间。 根据特朗普政府规划，若"大而美"法案最终立法将制造至少2.8万亿美元的财政赤字，可能会成为金价价值中枢的长期刚性支撑。 二是非农数据。受美国独立纪念日假期影响，美国6月非农就业报告提前于今晚（7月3日，周四）公布，若数据不佳有望引发降息预期升温，利好金价。 要知道，昨天公布的美国ADP就业人数表现不及预期，联储7月降息预期升温，也带动了金价偏强运行。 为什么金价震荡不停？ 今年上半年大部分时间，地缘局势动荡，关税问题也导致避险需求大幅升温，导致金价迅速走高，AU9999上半年最大涨幅超30%。 但随着地缘局势与关税问题有所缓和，避险需求降温，因此带来金价调整行情。 一句话就是，涨多了+没有新的驱动力，所以需要喘口气。 近期需要关注什么？ 一是美国大而美法案。当地时间周二，美国参议院表决结果通过 ...

7月3日（周四），黄金ETF基金（159937）上涨0.52%，盘中换手率1%，成交金额2.84亿元。拉长时间看，截至2025年7月2日，黄金ETF基金（159937）近 3月累计上涨4.98%。 | 多周期 设置 画线 | | 除权 窗 区 信息 删自选 ◎ | | 黄金ETF基金 159937 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 425 MA30: 7.418 MA60: 7.398 | | 8.140 | | | | | | 8.010 | | | 7.416 +0.038 +0.515% | | | | | 7.853 | 载化 | +2.06% | 548 | | | | | 5 | 7.420 | 1208 | | | | | | 7.419 | 1373 | | | | 7.561 | 3 | 7.418 | 2301 | | | | | 盛 2 | 7.417 | 7584 | | | | 7.274 | 1 | | | | | | | | 7.416 | 564 | | | | | 1 | 7.415 | 6105 | | | | 6.98 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting, aligning with market expectations [3] - The Fed's dot plot indicates that interest rates are expected to remain unchanged in the next meeting, with two rate cuts anticipated by the end of the year, bringing the rate to 3.75%-4.00% [3] - Economic growth expectations have been downgraded while inflation expectations have been raised, indicating ongoing stagflation risks [3][4] Group 2 - Recent indicators show that U.S. economic activity continues to expand steadily, with low unemployment and a stable labor market, although inflation remains "slightly high" [4] - The Fed is closely monitoring risks to its dual mandate and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed [4] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, have not significantly escalated, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand for gold [4] Group 3 - UBS forecasts that global central banks will continue to increase gold holdings, predicting a gold price of approximately $3,500 per ounce by the end of the year [5] - The World Gold Council's latest survey indicates that central banks have added over 1,000 tons of gold annually for the past three years, double the average growth rate of the previous decade [5] - 95% of survey respondents expect an increase in global central bank gold reserves over the next 12 months, supporting the bullish outlook for gold prices [5] Group 4 - The gold ETF fund (159937) is designed to closely track domestic gold prices, offering low entry barriers and diverse trading options [5] - Long-term, gold's value is expected to rise in line with the expansion of credit money supply and its role in hedging tail risks in investment portfolios [5] - Gold assets have historically performed well during both overheated and recessionary economic cycles, suggesting a favorable investment environment for gold ETFs [5]

6月13日（周五），受地缘政治局势刺激，国际现货黄金早盘持续走强，突破3400美元/盎司，涨幅1.24%。 黄金ETF基金（159937）上涨1.6%，换手率0.13%，成交金额3905万元。 黄金板块相关个股：潮宏基、湖南黄金、西部黄金、老铺黄金、四川黄金、赤峰黄金、紫金矿业、山东黄金、中金黄金、周大福（文中个股仅作示例，不构 成实际投资建议。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。） 来源：Wind 物价和就业数据一直是美联储制定货币政策的关键参考数据。在CPI、PPI数据发布后，投资者开始憧憬美联储年内降息的时间和次数。根据芝加哥商品交易 所的美联储观察工具，预计美联储将在下周和7月份维持利率不变，但9月份降息的概率为61%，高于昨日的58%，到12月降息两次或更多次的概率为78%， 高于昨日的70%。 黄金ETF基金（159937）通过投资上海黄金交易所AU9999现货合约，实现与国内金价的高度拟合，具有低门槛、低成本和交易形式多样化等特点，支持T+0 交易。长期来看，黄金中枢随信用货币规模而稳定抬升，以及其在资产组合中对冲尾部风险的作用依然是其长期配置价值所在。黄金资产在过热与衰退经济 周期里的整体表现较好，投资者 ...

在黄金价格飙涨的背景下，淘金者盯上了网络司法拍卖金条的 投 资 新 风 口 。 法 拍 金 条 起 拍 价 往 往 低 于 甚 至 远 远 低 于 近 期 AU9999黄金价格的成交价，但最后成交价却接近甚至高于该 价格，能"捡漏"的机会并不多。 作者：老盈盈 封图：图虫创意 这块金条的起拍价为119723.2元，每克起拍价为598.6元，远低于市场价。6月4日，上海黄金交易 所AU9999黄金价格收盘价为779.46元/克，最高报783.19元/克。6月5日，AU9999收盘价为781.25 元/克，最高报783.69元/克。 此次竞拍每次加价幅度为10元及其整倍数。根据竞买记录，6月4日一开拍，便吸引了不少竞买人 参 与 ， 他 们 以 每 次 10 元 、 100 元 、 200 元 的 幅 度 加 价 ， 当 天 出 价 次 数 达 66 次 ， 价 格 已 经 达 到 125153.2元。6月5日，出价次数增多，"出手"幅度也加大了，有的竞买人一次加价达两三千元。 竞拍结束前5分钟，依然不断有人出价。根据竞拍规则，竞拍结束前五分钟内出价，竞拍结束时间 会在出价时间的基础上延长五分钟，五分钟内的每次出 ...

作 者丨万倩倩 见习记者李益文 编 辑丨梁明 刘巷 刘雪莹 金价又突然飙升！ 5月2 0日晚，现货黄金持续走高，突破3 2 8 0美元/盎司，日内涨超1 . 6%。 数据截至20日22:27 上期所沪金主力合约涨超1 . 8%。 | < W | SHEET F | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | AU.SHF | | | | | 770.08 | 昨结 756.24 | 开盘 760.60 | | 万得 | | | | | | 참□ | | +13.84 | +1.83% 总手 14.06万 | 现手 | 2 | | | 最高价 | 771.30 持 仓 22.34万 | 2 | 智 | 7.05万 | | 最低价 | 758.68 增 仓 1.21万 | 内 | ਵਿ | 7.01万 | | 원 | 五日 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 月Ｋ | | 車名 | | | 叠加 | | | 盘口 | | | 771.30 | | 1.99% 卖5 770.18 | | TI | | | | | 卖4 770.16 | 5 | | | | 卖3 | 770.14 卖2 770.12 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market is experiencing a notable adjustment due to a decrease in risk aversion stemming from improved US-China trade relations, leading to a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to risk assets [1][3] - The recent week saw a significant outflow from gold ETFs, exceeding 4 billion yuan, as investors reacted to the easing of trade tensions, which has resulted in a short-term increase in the adjustment magnitude of precious metals [1] - The gold market currently lacks the foundation for a new upward momentum, with high short-term volatility and a rational adjustment process observed in the precious metals market, as indicated by the stable gold-silver ratio around 100 [2] Group 2 - The US-China trade negotiations have progressed beyond expectations, with the US agreeing to significantly reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, which has contributed to a more favorable market environment [3] - The Federal Reserve is considering revising its monetary policy framework in response to changing inflation and interest rate prospects, indicating potential challenges for the economy and central bank [3] - Moody's has downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing persistent budget deficits as a concern, which may impact investor sentiment and market dynamics [3] Group 3 - The gold ETF (159937) allows investors to gain exposure to gold without the costs associated with physical storage and authentication, enhancing capital efficiency through a T+0 trading mechanism [4]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced an increase, surpassing $3240 per ounce, driven by investor concerns over global economic recovery and a shift towards safe-haven assets [1] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising government debt and interest expenses, which raised concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and stimulated demand for gold [1] - The recent decline in gold prices was attributed to a stronger U.S. dollar and reduced trade tensions, which diminished the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - Over the past three weeks, gold has faced pressure due to reduced concerns over "stagflation" risks and a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with current expectations of a rate cut of about 58 basis points [2] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, as macroeconomic conditions suggest that the Federal Reserve will eventually implement monetary easing, benefiting gold prices [2] - The ongoing trend of central banks purchasing gold and the continuous net inflow into gold ETFs indicate strong demand for gold, even after price corrections [3] Group 3 - The easing of trade tensions and geopolitical risks is expected to continue suppressing safe-haven demand for gold, leading to a potential maintenance of a corrective trend in gold prices [3] - The inflationary effects of tariffs have not yet fully transmitted to consumer prices, but there are risks of rising inflation data in May, which could impact economic performance [3] - The gold ETF (159937) allows investors to trade gold without the costs associated with physical gold, enhancing capital efficiency through a T+0 mechanism [3]

当地时间5月15日，鲍威尔在第二届Thomas Laubach研究会议上致开幕词。鲍威尔表示，美国可能正在 进入一个供应冲击更频繁、持续时间也更持久的时期，这对经济和央行来说都是一个艰巨的挑战。 北京时间5月13日晚间，美国劳工统计局公布了4月消费者物价指数（CPI）报告，其中显示，美国4月 CPI同比上涨2.3%，为2021年2月以来新低，低于市场预期的2.4%；4月CPI环比上涨0.2%，低于市场预 期的0.3%，前置为-0.4%。 周四（5月15日），国际金价上演V型反转，亚洲早盘时段现货黄金曾急挫近2%至3120.64美元/盎司， 但随后多方力量强势反扑，推动金价实现单日近2%的涨幅，最终收报3239.58美元/盎司。延续此轮涨 势，周五（5月16日）亚市早盘现货黄金持续攀升，成功突破3250美元关键位并触及3252.05美元高位。 ETF方面，黄金ETF基金(159937) 跳空高开近2%，成交额已超2亿元，该ETF近一年累计涨幅超31%。 市场分析显示，本轮反弹主要受两大因素驱动：其一，俄乌谈判延期至周五，削弱了市场对冲突快速和 解的预期，刺激避险资金重新涌入黄金市场；其二，美国最新经济指标低于预 ...