7月16日（周三），黄金ETF基金（159937）下跌0.74%，盘中换手率0.8%，成交金额2.28亿元。 国际黄金7月15日（周二）震荡收跌，小跌0.59%，收盘价3323.13美元/盎司。7月16日，国际黄金回涨，目前交投于3325.49美元/盎司，上涨0.07%，开盘价 3323.63美元/盎司，最低报3323.50美元/盎司，最高报3335.04美元/盎司。（数据来源：iFinD） 数据来源：美国劳工部 弱于预期的数据可能会进一步激发特朗普要求美联储降息的呼声。尽管部分美联储官员表示，在两周后的会议上愿意考虑降息，但整体来看，决策者对于关 税是会导致一次性物价冲击还是更持久的影响仍有分歧，因此很可能再次维持利率不变。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为97.4%，降息25个基点的概率为2.6%。美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为45.1%，累计降息25个基点 的概率为53.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.4%。 中信证券研报指出，美国6月通胀基本延续"岁月静好"的状态，核心CPI环比增速连续第五个月低于预期，主因租金通胀和二手车价格降温。本次偏软的核心 通胀不能验证"关税对通胀影 ...

当地时间13日，美国总统特朗普再次表示希望美联储主席鲍威尔辞职。美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特在接受采访时称，若有正当理由，特朗普有权解雇美国联邦 储备委员会主席鲍威尔。他还指责美联储对其华盛顿总部翻修工程超支"负有重大责任"。哈塞特称，特朗普是否会因"超支7亿美元"解雇鲍威尔，"将很大程 度上取决于美联储对白宫管理和预算办公室主任拉塞尔.沃特质询的回应"。此前，美联储前理事沃什表示，美联储现在应该降息。 此前，美国芝加哥联邦储备银行行长古尔斯比表示，美国总统特朗普公布的新关税进一步扰乱了通胀前景，这使得他更难支持特朗普所要求的降息。在特朗 普暂停了4月份提出的高额双边关税后，人们对关税可能推高物价的担忧已大幅缓解。对此，古尔斯比表示，这使得美联储有望很快再次降息。然而，古尔 斯比称，最新一轮关税措施可能会引发新的通胀担忧，这可能迫使美联储在获得更明确的信息前维持观望态度。古尔斯比表示，尽管面临政治压力，但他仍 坚信美联储在利率决策方面将保持独立性。 据报道，近期，国际金价高位持续震荡。受此影响，多只黄金主题基金近期表现不尽如人意。对于金价未来走势，市场近期分歧较大。一方面，多家投资机 构继续唱多黄金；另一方面，有观 ...

Group 1: Gold ETF Performance - As of July 10, the Gold ETF (159937) increased by 0.73% with a turnover rate of 0.65% and a transaction amount of 184 million yuan [1] - The Gold ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past four days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 87.7045 million yuan, totaling 185 million yuan and an average daily net inflow of 46.2391 million yuan [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July have cooled significantly, with the two-year Treasury yield rising over the past week [2] - The expectation for a rate cut in July has decreased to about 4 basis points, with an annual cumulative rate cut expectation of 63 basis points, slightly down from the end of June [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the need to understand the impact of tariffs on inflation before making any rate cuts, ignoring calls for immediate significant cuts [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Situation and Central Bank Actions - The geopolitical situation has recently cooled, with a low probability of further escalation in the short term [3] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves, reaching 73.9 million ounces as of June 2025, marking the eighth consecutive month of growth [3] Group 4: Trading Strategies and Long-term Outlook - SPDR Gold ETF holdings have shifted to outflows since June 30, but overall holdings remain higher than early June levels [4] - Analysts suggest that while the delay in rate cut expectations and easing geopolitical risks may lead to a weaker short-term gold price, the long-term upward trend remains clear due to ongoing global central bank gold purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [4][6] - Investment strategies recommend accumulating gold positions during market dips, focusing on geopolitical risks and inflation hedging [6] Group 5: Technical Analysis and Investment Recommendations - Short-term strategies suggest investors should accumulate gold gradually based on technical signals, while maintaining a long-term allocation to gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty [6] - The Gold ETF (159937) and its linked funds offer low-cost, diversified trading options, aligning closely with domestic gold prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with gold prices testing resistance levels and showing potential for further declines due to a rebound in the US dollar index and changing Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [2][6][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of July 9, international spot gold has fallen below $3,300 per ounce, currently trading at $3,287.75 per ounce, down 0.39% [1]. - The COMEX gold is trading at $3,299 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.54% [1]. - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, which have shifted due to recent employment data and economic policies [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US non-farm payroll data for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1% [7]. - The "Great Beautiful" fiscal plan signed by President Trump is expected to increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, which may have short-term positive effects on the economy but could exacerbate long-term debt burdens [7][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing trade negotiations and tariff agreements between the US and countries like Vietnam and Cambodia are contributing to market uncertainty, which may support gold prices as a hedge against currency risk [8][9]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and their potential impact on the economy remains a significant factor influencing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][8]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Gold ETFs and related funds are highlighted as accessible investment vehicles, offering low costs and diverse trading options, which may attract investors looking to hedge against economic volatility [11]. - The long-term value of gold as a hedge against inflation and economic downturns is emphasized, suggesting that investors may consider regular investments in gold ETFs [11].

Group 1 - The strong U.S. employment data has diminished market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to a significant rise in the dollar index and a decline in spot gold prices [1][2] - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February [1][2] - The likelihood of a rate cut in July is now considered nearly zero, with a 75% probability for a cut in September, indicating a resilient labor market [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that geopolitical factors will support gold prices in the long term, despite a decrease in rate cut expectations [3] - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves due to rising dollar credit risks and strategic asset allocation needs [3] - The performance of gold assets remains strong during both overheating and recessionary economic cycles, making gold ETFs a viable investment option [3][5] Group 3 - The gold ETF (159937) experienced a decline of 0.8% on July 4, with a trading volume of 239 million yuan, but has seen a 4.08% increase over the past month [5] - The net inflow of funds into the gold ETF over the last five days was 447 million yuan, indicating continued investor interest [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing adjustments, but the overall trend indicates mid-term buying opportunities, with significant regulatory changes impacting the market dynamics [3][4]. Group 1: Gold ETF Performance - On July 3, the gold ETF (159937) rose by 0.52%, with a turnover rate of 1% and a transaction amount of 284 million yuan [1]. - As of July 2, 2025, the gold ETF has accumulated a rise of 4.98% over the past three months [1]. - The international spot gold price was reported at $3,347 per ounce, with a decline of 0.29% on the same day [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Regulatory Changes - The People's Bank of China issued new anti-money laundering regulations for precious metals and gemstones, effective August 1, 2025, requiring reporting for cash transactions exceeding 100,000 yuan [3]. - The global gold market is currently in a state of adjustment, with trading concentrated between $3,250 and $3,350 per ounce, indicating a fluctuating upward trend [3]. Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Global uncertainty due to trade negotiations and potential tariffs is expected to increase risk aversion, supporting gold prices [4]. - The U.S. Senate's approval of a significant fiscal bill raises concerns about increased fiscal deficits, leading to a decline in the dollar index and U.S. bond yields, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [4]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Strategy - The restructuring of the monetary system and ongoing demand from global central banks for gold suggests a sustained long-term value in gold investments [6]. - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term configuration value of gold remains strong due to geopolitical risks, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, and a weakening dollar [6]. - The implementation of new anti-money laundering regulations is expected to have a minimal impact on the market, ultimately contributing to healthier market development [6]. Group 5: Gold ETF Investment Characteristics - Gold ETFs (159937) and their linked funds offer low entry barriers, low costs, and diverse trading forms, supporting T+0 trading [7]. - The performance of gold assets tends to be favorable during both overheated and recessionary economic cycles, making them a viable option for investors [7].