每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 华安证券指出，基础化工和化学制品行业呈现多元化发展趋势。三代制冷剂进入高景气周期，供给 端受配额政策限制，需求端受益于热泵、冷链及东南亚市场增长。合成生物学在能源结构调整下迎来发 展机遇，生物基材料成本下降推动需求爆发。COC聚合物国产化进程加速，光学和包装领域应用拓 展。轻烃化工成为全球烯烃行业趋势，低碳排特性契合碳中和目标。钾肥价格触底回升，国际巨头减产 及粮食种植意愿提升改善供需。MDI行业供给格局向好，高技术壁垒和需求稳健支撑长期发展。 化工龙头ETF（516220）跟踪的是细分化工指数（000813），该指数从市场中选取涉及农药、化 肥、涂料等化学工业子行业的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映化工领域内龙头企业及成长性良好公 司的整体表现。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The chemical sector showed a weekly performance ranking of 8th with a gain of 1.99%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.63 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 5.85 percentage points [4][22]. - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's overall performance for the week of October 9-10, 2025, was a gain of 1.99%, ranking 8th among sectors [22]. - The top three performing sub-sectors were phosphate and phosphorus chemicals (6.26%), titanium dioxide (4.23%), and oil and petrochemical trade (4.23%) [23]. Key Industry Dynamics - Synthetic biology is at a pivotal moment, with low-energy products expected to gain a longer growth window due to the adjustment of energy structures [4]. - The upcoming quota policy for third-generation refrigerants is anticipated to enter a high prosperity cycle, with demand expected to grow steadily due to market expansion in Southeast Asia [5]. - The electronic specialty gases market is characterized by high technical barriers and high added value, with significant opportunities for domestic substitution [6][8]. - The trend of light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift towards lighter raw materials for olefin production [8]. - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization process, driven by supply chain security concerns and the shift of downstream industries to domestic production [9]. - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as major producers reduce output and the demand for fertilizers increases due to rising grain prices [10]. - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure expected as demand gradually recovers [12].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 17th this week (2025/09/22-2025/09/26) with a decline of 0.95%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.16 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 2.91 percentage points [2][3] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of divergence in 2025, with a focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [2] Group 2: Key Industry Trends - Synthetic biology is at a pivotal moment, with low-energy products likely to gain a longer growth window due to the shift in energy structure. Traditional chemical companies will need to focus on energy consumption and carbon tax costs [2] - The introduction of quota policies for third-generation refrigerants is anticipated to lead to a high-growth cycle, with supply constraints and stable demand growth from markets like heat pumps and cold chains [3] - The electronic specialty gases market is characterized by high technical barriers and value, with domestic production opportunities arising from the rapid upgrade of downstream industries [4] Group 3: Specific Chemical Segments - The trend towards light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter feedstocks like ethane and propane, which are more cost-effective and environmentally friendly [5] - The industrialization of COC/COP (cyclic olefin copolymer) is accelerating in China, driven by domestic production capabilities and the need for supply chain security [6] - MDI (methylene diphenyl diisocyanate) is experiencing a favorable supply landscape due to its high technical barriers and the concentration of production among a few global players [9] Group 4: Price Tracking and Supply Chain - Weekly price tracking shows significant increases in liquid chlorine (252.38%) and paraquat (42%), while PX and bisphenol A saw declines of -5.56% and -4.27% respectively [10] - The supply side of the chemical industry is affected, with 155 companies reporting changes in production capacity, including 4 new shutdowns and 12 restarts this week [11]

Industry Overview - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 12th this week (2025/09/08-2025/09/12) with a change of 2.36%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.83 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 0.25 percentage points [2][3] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sugar substitutes, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [2][3] Synthetic Biology - The arrival of a pivotal moment in synthetic biology is anticipated, driven by energy structure adjustments that may disrupt fossil-based materials, favoring low-energy products [2] - Traditional chemical companies are expected to compete on energy consumption and carbon tax costs, with successful firms leveraging green energy alternatives and integrated advantages to reduce costs [2] - Companies like Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio are highlighted as leaders in the synthetic biology sector [2] Refrigerants - The implementation of quota policies is expected to lead to a high-growth cycle for third-generation refrigerants, with supply entering a "quota + continuous reduction" phase starting in 2024 [3] - The demand for refrigerants is projected to grow due to the development of heat pumps, cold chain markets, and the expansion of the air conditioning market in Southeast Asia [3] - Companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co. are positioned to benefit from this trend [3] Electronic Specialty Gases - Electronic specialty gases are critical to the electronics industry, characterized by high technical barriers and added value [4] - The domestic market faces a contradiction between rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing and insufficient high-end electronic specialty gas capacity [4] - Companies like Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas are expected to capitalize on the growing demand driven by semiconductors, displays, and photovoltaics [4] Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards lighter raw materials in the global olefin industry is noted, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter alkanes like ethane and propane [5] - Light hydrocarbon chemicals are recognized for their low carbon emissions, low energy consumption, and low water usage, aligning with global carbon neutrality goals [5] - Satellite Chemical is recommended as a key player in the light hydrocarbon chemical sector [5] COC Polymers - The industrialization of COC/COP (cyclic olefin copolymer) is accelerating in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs and the shift of downstream industries to China [6] - COC/COP materials are increasingly used in high-end applications, with domestic firms expected to overcome supply-side bottlenecks [6] - Akolai is identified as a company to watch in the COC polymer production segment [6] MDI Market - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with demand steadily increasing due to the expansion of polyurethane applications [9] - The market is currently experiencing price stabilization at low levels, but profitability remains strong [9] - Wanhu Chemical is highlighted as a key player in the polyurethane sector, benefiting from the anticipated improvement in the MDI supply landscape [9] Potash Fertilizer - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as the industry enters a destocking phase, with supply constraints due to Canpotex withdrawing new quotes and Nutrien announcing production cuts [7][8] - The demand for potash is projected to rise as farmers increase planting intentions, influenced by rising grain prices [8] - Companies such as Yara International, Salt Lake Potash, and Cangge Mining are noted as leading firms in the potash sector [8] Weekly Price Tracking - The top five price increases this week included liquid chlorine (21.69%), acrylic acid (5.66%), and trichloroethylene (4.44%) [10] - The top five price decreases included butyl rubber (-11.25%), NYMEX natural gas futures (-4.33%), and DMF (-3.68%) [10] Supply-Side Tracking - A total of 162 chemical enterprises had their production capacities affected this week, with 7 new repairs and 11 restarts reported [11]

韩国多套 POE 装置计划检修，国内首个 SAF 产业专项政策发布 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期： 2025-09-04 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 -27% -14% 0% 14% 27% 41% 2/24 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 5/25 8/25 基础化工 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：王强峰 [Table_IndNameRptType] 基础化工 行业周报 执业证书号：S0010522110002 电话：13621792701 邮箱：wangqf@hazq.com 分析师：潘宁馨 执业证书号：S0010524070002 电话：13816562460 邮箱：pannx@hazq.com [Table_Report] 相关报告 1.韩国拟削减 25%石脑油产能，六部门部署 规范光伏产业竞争秩序 20250822 2.中美"关税休战"再延长，1880 亿设备更新 补助资金下达 20250815 3.绿色液体燃料首批试点项目公式，制冷剂 价格涨势延续 20250808 4."反内卷"再催化，农药行业开启三年" ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 15th this week, with a change of 2.86%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.63 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 3.00 percentage points [4][22] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of differentiated performance in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Industry Performance - The chemical sector's performance for the week of August 18-22, 2025, showed a 2.86% increase, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 3.49% and the ChiNext Index by 5.85% [4][22] - The top three performing sub-sectors were other rubber products (8.53%), polyurethane (6.34%), and titanium dioxide (5.69%), while the bottom three were synthetic resin (-1.67%), carbon black (-1.00%), and other plastic products (-0.34%) [23][22] Key Industry Dynamics - South Korea plans to cut naphtha cracking capacity by 25%, affecting 2.7 to 3.7 million tons based on an annual capacity of 14.7 million tons, as part of efforts to restructure its petrochemical industry [35] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China held a meeting to regulate the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a healthy competitive environment [35] Recommended Focus Areas - Synthetic biology is highlighted as a key area for growth, with traditional chemical companies needing to adapt to energy costs and carbon taxes [4] - The third-generation refrigerants are expected to enter a high-growth cycle due to supply constraints and increasing demand from markets like Southeast Asia [5] - The electronic specialty gases market presents significant opportunities for domestic companies due to high technical barriers and increasing demand from semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [6][8] - Light hydrocarbon chemicals are becoming a global trend, with a shift towards lighter raw materials for ethylene production [8] - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization process, driven by supply chain security concerns [9] - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as major producers reduce output and demand increases from farmers [10] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure anticipated as demand recovers [12]

Group 1 - The basic chemical and chemical products industry is experiencing a trend of diversification, with synthetic biology entering a pivotal moment and fossil-based materials facing disruptive challenges [1] - The demand for bio-based materials is expected to surge due to cost reductions and breakthroughs in "non-food" raw materials [1] - Electronic specialty gases, as a core component of the electronics industry, have significant domestic substitution potential driven by the demand from semiconductors, panels, and photovoltaics [1] - The third-generation refrigerants are entering a high prosperity cycle, with a continuous reduction in supply and stable demand growth leading to an expanding supply-demand gap and rising prices [1] - Light hydrocarbon chemicals are becoming a global trend, with raw material lightening driving changes in the olefin industry, aligning with carbon neutrality goals [1] - The industrialization of COC polymers is accelerating, with domestic breakthroughs expected, and optical performance advantages driving applications in consumer electronics and new energy vehicles [1] - The MDI industry is seeing an improved supply structure, characterized by high technical barriers and oligopolistic features, making it a resilient chemical product [1] - Potash fertilizer prices have bottomed out, with international giants reducing production and an increase in grain planting intentions improving supply-demand relationships and driving industry recovery [1] Group 2 - The chemical leader ETF (516220) tracks the sub-sector chemical index (000813), which selects listed companies involved in the manufacturing of chemical products and fibers to reflect the overall performance of representative enterprises in the chemical industry [1] - The index employs a balanced industry distribution strategy aimed at accurately capturing market dynamics and industrial upgrade trends in the chemical field [1]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 16th with a fluctuation of 3.11% during the week of June 23-27, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.19 percentage points but underperforming the ChiNext Index by 2.59 percentage points [4][22] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of differentiated performance in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Summary by Sections Industry Review - The chemical sector's performance during the week was characterized by a 3.11% increase, with the top three performing sectors being computer (7.70%), defense industry (6.90%), and non-bank financials (6.66%) [22][23] - The top three gaining stocks in the chemical sector were Dazhongnan (50.00%), Taihe Technology (48.09%), and Tiensheng New Materials (31.41%) [29] Key Industry Dynamics - The ethane export situation has improved, transitioning from a "complete suspension" to "transportable, but not unloading" [1][37] - The upcoming quota policy for refrigerants is expected to lead to a high prosperity cycle for third-generation refrigerants, with companies holding a high quota share likely to benefit significantly [5] - The electronic specialty gases market is characterized by high technical barriers and high added value, presenting significant domestic substitution opportunities [6][8] - The light hydrocarbon chemical trend is becoming global, with a shift towards lighter raw materials for olefin production, which is expected to lead to a revaluation of leading companies in this sector [8] - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization process, with significant potential for domestic companies to break through and capture market space [9] - The potassium fertilizer market is anticipated to bottom out and recover due to supply-side adjustments and increased demand from farmers [10] - The MDI market is expected to improve due to oligopolistic supply dynamics and stable demand from polyurethane applications [12]