策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2026 年 3 月 1 日 3 月金股组合 中银证券研究部 2026 年 3 月金股 3 月金股组合 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 策略观点：A 股短期波动中期聚焦国内主线，资源品行情正当时。美以 军事打击伊朗对于全球市场及资产价格的影响取决于行动的目标及持续 性。金价上行有望得到进一步支撑。无论是当下的中东局势还是特朗普 关税政策的反复都为短期市场增加了较高的不确定性因素。而这种不确 定性下的避险情绪将为短期贵金属价格形成有力支撑。目前来看，对于 A 股的影响更多集中在风险偏好层面，中期来看，A 股市场将会回归国内 基本面及政策预期。国内两会即将开幕，A 股短期冲击幅度或小于海外， 节后复工情况、两会前后宏观政策的释放是国内投资者关 ...

工业气体：有望筑底回升，电子特气景气持续 20260223 摘要 中国工业气体市场规模预计将达 2000 亿元，受益于宏观经济增长、外 包供气比例提升及新领域需求拓展。行业竞争格局向头部集中，国内前 六大公司市场集中度达 72%，龙头企业如杭氧股份市占率有望提升。 全球半导体销售额同比增长 30%（2025 年 11 月数据），国内集成电 路产量预计在"十五五"期间保持快速增长，驱动电子特气需求。集成 电路国产替代比例仍较低，提升空间巨大，国产电子特气厂商有望切入 海外先进制程。 2025 年工业气体板块整体业绩良好，AI 驱动的特种气体公司营收显著 增长。电子特种气体板块公司归母净利润实现高增，而空分设备相对承 压。凯美特气全年股价涨幅显著，远超国际巨头如林德、法液空。 液氧、液氮和液氩价格处于近七年底部区域，截至 2025 年底，均价分 别位于历史 3%、2%和 41%分位数左右，相较最高点跌幅显著，表明 大宗工业用汽价格筑底明显。液氧价格同比跌幅收窄，液氮价格持续环 比下降，液氩价格四季度加速上涨。 Q&A 2026 年工业气体行业的整体投资策略和市场前景如何？ 2026 年，工业气体行业整体呈现筑底回 ...

智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，工业气体长期受益行业外包供气占比提升、下游半导体/新 能源等新领域需求提速;短期受益宏观经济复苏、气价弹性大。空分设备国内百亿级市场空间，并受益 设备大型化+海外出口需求提升。全球半导体景气预计2026年持续;优秀的国产电子特气厂商逐步切入海 外3nm、5nm先进制程，海外份额远低于其国内市场份额，成长空间更大。 1)市场空间：长坡厚雪。预计2026年市场规模将达到1.3万亿元，近4年CAGR=6.8%。全球龙头林德气 体/液化空/空气化工市值折合人民币分别达1.5万亿/8000亿/4000亿市值左右。2)竞争格局：头部集中。 2021年全球工业气体CR4=54%，国内工业气体CR6=72%，杭氧股份占比6.3%，未来份额有望向头部集 中。3)成长驱动力：长期——受益行业外包供气占比提升、下游半导体/新能源等新领域需求提速;短期 ——受益宏观经济复苏、气价弹性大。 推荐工业气体龙头杭氧股份，建议关注电子特气央企龙头中船特气、电子大宗气龙头广钢气体、特种气 体先行者华特气体、电子特气新星和远气体、工业气体"西南王"侨源股份、光刻气龙头厂商凯美特气、 压缩机龙头陕鼓动力、空 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The industrial gas market is expected to reach 1.3 trillion yuan by 2026, with a CAGR of 6.8% over the next four years [3] - The competitive landscape is becoming more concentrated, with the top four companies holding 54% of the global market share and the top six in China holding 72% [3] - Growth drivers include increased outsourcing of gas supply, accelerated demand from sectors like semiconductors and new energy, and short-term benefits from macroeconomic recovery and gas price elasticity [3] Market Space - The global industrial gas market is valued at over 1 trillion, while the domestic market is around 200 billion [3] - The market is projected to grow to 284.2 billion yuan in China by 2026, with a CAGR of 9.68% from 2022 to 2026 [21] - The market is characterized by high concentration, with the top five companies holding approximately 69% of the market share [21] Equipment Market - The domestic air separation equipment market is valued at 34.1 billion yuan in 2022, with a growth rate of 25% year-on-year [4] - The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 22% from 2019 to 2024, driven by larger equipment sizes and increased export demand [4] Electronic Specialty Gases - The semiconductor market is expected to remain strong, with a projected 30% year-on-year increase in global semiconductor sales by November 2025 [5] - There is significant potential for domestic electronic specialty gas manufacturers to replace imports and expand into global markets [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the industrial gas sector, such as Hangyang Co., and key players in electronic specialty gases like China Shipbuilding Gas and Guanggang Gas [6]

Core Viewpoint - The new materials industry is crucial for supporting modern industrial systems and achieving high-level technological self-reliance in China, with significant strategic importance for building a strong manufacturing and quality nation [2]. Industry Background and Development Situation - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's new materials industry saw continuous growth, with total output value exceeding 8.2 trillion yuan and an average annual growth rate of over 12% [4]. - Achievements include breakthroughs in ultra-high-strength steel, high-performance carbon fiber, semiconductor silicon wafers, and key materials for lithium-ion batteries [4]. - Challenges remain in high-end materials and the need for improved self-sufficiency in core processes and equipment [4]. Overall Requirements - The guiding ideology emphasizes innovation-driven development, demand-oriented approaches, and green low-carbon principles, focusing on enhancing the self-sufficiency of strategic materials and original innovation capabilities [8]. - Basic principles include innovation leadership, application orientation, enterprise-driven collaboration, and green development [9]. Development Goals (by 2030) - Comprehensive security capability for strategic materials to exceed 80%, with a focus on achieving global leadership in original achievements in frontier new materials [11]. - Continuous increase in R&D investment intensity, aiming to break through over 500 key core technologies [11]. - Establishment of over 20 distinctive, complete, and internationally leading new materials industrial clusters [11]. Key Development Directions - Advanced basic materials include ultra-high-strength automotive steel and high-performance aluminum alloys [13][14]. - Key strategic materials focus on high-temperature alloys and advanced semiconductor materials [18][19]. - New energy materials target high-energy-density battery materials and photovoltaic materials [21]. Key Tasks and Major Projects - Focus on urgent new materials needed in critical application areas such as aerospace, new energy vehicles, and electronic information [27]. - Specific projects include developing high-performance carbon fiber composites for aircraft and high-nickel ternary cathode materials for batteries [29][31][32]. Collaborative Innovation System - Establish a collaborative innovation system that integrates enterprises, academia, and research institutions to enhance innovation capabilities [51]. - Plans to build five national new materials laboratories and ten engineering research centers to support innovation [52]. Market Cultivation for Key New Materials - Implement insurance compensation mechanisms for the first application of key new materials to encourage market adoption [56]. - Establish a project library for demonstration projects to showcase the advantages of new materials in practical applications [57]. Breakthroughs in Key Processes and Equipment - Focus on overcoming bottlenecks in key processes and specialized equipment for new materials production [61]. - Plans to support the development of over 80 key processes and equipment technologies, aiming for significant improvements in production efficiency and cost reduction [64].

Core Viewpoint - The new materials industry in China is experiencing a historic development window driven by domestic substitution becoming a necessity and the emergence of new production demands. The Beijing Stock Exchange (北交所) serves as a core platform for innovative small and medium enterprises, gathering a number of "invisible champions" in niche markets [4][8]. Group 1: Overview of the New Materials Industry on the Beijing Stock Exchange - The new materials industry is categorized into five major segments: non-metal functional materials, new energy materials, polymer and composite materials, metal materials, and fine chemicals [6][10]. - Companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange typically focus on niche markets, demonstrating high technical barriers, high gross margins, and rapid growth [7][10]. - The industry is characterized by a high degree of specialization, with many companies being in the early to mid-stages of development, offering significant growth potential [7][10]. Group 2: Investment Themes in New Materials - The investment focus is on domestic substitution and new production capabilities, particularly in semiconductor materials and lightweight, high-performance materials for robotics and low-altitude economies [8][16]. - Key companies in semiconductor materials are making breakthroughs in critical areas such as photoresists and electronic gases, which are essential for the semiconductor supply chain [17][26]. - The demand for lightweight and high-performance materials is driven by new applications in robotics and low-altitude economies, creating new market opportunities [30][31]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Target Companies - The new materials industry is expected to transition from scale advantages to quality advantages, focusing on high-end breakthroughs and domestic substitution [4][42]. - Specific directions for development include the high-endization of bulk materials, the localization of electronic chemicals, and the upgrading of new energy materials [42]. - Companies such as 贝特瑞 (BTR), 安达科技 (Anda Technology), and 民士达 (Minsida) are highlighted as key players in the new energy materials sector, focusing on battery materials and lightweight structural components [17][33]. Group 4: Methodology for Investment Tracking - A three-dimensional analysis framework is proposed, focusing on demand drivers, core competitiveness, and industry value chain positioning [4][11]. - Key indicators for tracking investment value include capacity release, price signals, product breakthroughs, and customer certifications [11][12]. - The investment strategy should revolve around industry trends, selective stock picking, and identifying incremental opportunities, particularly in companies with technological leadership and strong customer ties [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report highlights a significant investment opportunity in the new materials industry, particularly focusing on the Beijing Stock Exchange (北交所) as a core platform for innovative small and medium enterprises [5]. Core Insights - The new materials industry is experiencing a historic development window driven by domestic substitution becoming a necessity and new productivity demands [5]. - The report categorizes companies in the new materials sector into five main segments: non-metal functional materials, new energy materials, polymer and composite materials, metal materials, and fine chemicals, with a focus on semiconductor materials and new productivity supporting materials [5]. - Companies in the semiconductor materials sector are making breakthroughs in critical areas such as photoresist-related chemicals and electronic specialty gases, indicating a shift towards domestic production [5]. - The new productivity sector is defined by the demand for lightweight and high-performance materials, with companies in this space expected to see significant growth opportunities [5]. - A three-dimensional analysis framework is proposed to assess investment value based on demand drivers, core competitiveness, and industry value chain position [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the New Materials Industry Chain - The industry is characterized by a diverse distribution of emerging enterprises that possess unique advantages, often referred to as "invisible champions" [11]. - The companies typically focus on niche markets and exhibit high technical barriers, high gross margins, and rapid growth rates [12]. 2. Investment Main Lines in New Materials - The investment focus is on domestic substitution trends in semiconductors and the new productivity demands driven by sectors like robotics and low-altitude economy [26]. - Key materials include new battery materials, lightweight structural materials, and advanced friction materials, which are essential for the ongoing energy transition [26]. 3. Outlook and Target Companies in New Materials - The report anticipates that the new materials industry will transition from scale advantages to quality advantages, with a focus on high-end breakthroughs and domestic substitution [75]. - Specific areas of growth include high-end materials, electronic chemicals, and new energy materials, with an emphasis on companies that can meet the evolving demands of industries such as AI and robotics [75].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is at the bottom of a long-term down cycle, with signs of a potential turning point as supply-demand dynamics improve and capital expenditure contracts [3][5]. Group 1: Industry Positioning - Multiple macro and industry indicators suggest that the chemical industry is in the bottom region of a long-term down cycle, with positive changes in supply-demand dynamics accumulating to lay the groundwork for a turning point [3]. - The price index for the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry shows a narrowing year-on-year decline in PPI, indicating a preliminary improvement in product price pressures [3]. - The continuous decline in finished goods inventory indicates that after a prolonged period of active destocking, inventory levels have reached a low point, allowing for potential replenishment [3]. Group 2: Supply Changes - The contraction in capital expenditure is significant, with fixed asset investment growth in the domestic chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry turning negative, signaling the end of large-scale capacity expansion [5]. - The structural clearing of supply, driven by both domestic and international factors, is a key difference in this cycle compared to previous ones [9]. - Domestic policies aimed at "anti-involution" are leading to the elimination of outdated capacity, while industry leaders are optimizing competition to avoid price wars and promote profit recovery [9]. Group 3: Demand Drivers - The demand side is characterized by a dual engine of traditional recovery and emerging growth, with marginal recovery in traditional downstream sectors and strong demand from new industries like semiconductors and renewable energy [10]. - Traditional demand is expected to improve marginally, supported by policies driving demand in sectors like automotive and home appliances, despite long-term pressures in real estate [10]. - Emerging demand from sectors such as semiconductors and new energy is becoming a strong growth engine, contributing to a more diversified and healthy demand structure in the chemical industry [13]. Group 4: Investment Mapping - Investment strategies should focus on two main lines: benefiting from supply-side reforms and stable profitability in cyclical leaders, and identifying chemical new material companies with technological barriers and growth potential in emerging demand sectors [14][15]. - The chemical ETF Guotai (516220) offers an efficient tool for investors looking to capture the overall recovery trend in the chemical industry while mitigating risks associated with specific sectors and stocks [15].

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on advanced precursor materials, electronic specialty gases, and photoresists, aligning with national development strategies and targeting applications in various high-tech industries [1] Group 1: Company Focus - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of three core electronic materials: advanced precursors (including MO sources), electronic specialty gases, and photoresists [1] - The products are widely used in the manufacturing of integrated circuits, flat panel displays, LEDs, third-generation semiconductors, photovoltaics, and semiconductor lasers [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the chemical materials sector is experiencing a shift from a "cost-sensitive" model to a "structural growth" model, driven by policies on carbon emissions, global energy transitions, and domestic manufacturing recovery [1] - The China Securities Index shows that the chemical industry index rose by 7.29% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.91 percentage points, with all 24 sub-industries within the sector recording gains [1] - The implementation of a dual control system for carbon emissions in China marks a new phase in institutionalizing green and low-carbon development, which is expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated capacity in high-energy-consuming and high-emission chemical sub-industries [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Index for the chemical industry include Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Co., and Cangge Mining, with these stocks collectively accounting for 45.31% of the index [2] - The chemical ETF managed by Harvest (159129) closely tracks the China Securities Index for the chemical industry, focusing on the new round of prosperity cycle against the backdrop of "anti-involution" in the industry [2] - Investors can also explore investment opportunities in the chemical sector through the chemical ETF linked fund (013527) [3]