Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is experiencing a "super cycle" driven by explosive AI demand and supply-side contraction, leading to significant price increases and a surge in capital activities among major companies [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The storage industry has historically shown strong cyclical characteristics, with the current cycle, defined as a "super cycle," expected to last until at least the end of 2026, potentially extending into 2027 [2]. - AI's structural demand explosion is the core engine driving this super cycle, with AI servers requiring 8 times more DRAM and 3 times more NAND Flash compared to traditional servers [2]. - Major storage manufacturers, including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, are adopting cautious expansion strategies, further exacerbating supply shortages [3]. Group 2: Price Trends - The average selling prices (ASP) of DRAM and NAND Flash are on the rise, with suppliers seeing increased profits, although capital expenditures for 2026 may not significantly boost output growth [3]. - The spot market reflects rising prices, with Kingston raising DRAM prices and NAND Flash showing bullish sentiment due to expected contract price increases [5]. Group 3: Capitalization Trends - The ongoing industry boom has ignited a wave of IPO activities among storage companies, with multiple firms accelerating their listing processes across various segments [7]. - Shenzhen Dapu Microelectronics has successfully passed the IPO review for the ChiNext board, marking a significant milestone in the current IPO wave [8]. - Dapu Micro focuses on enterprise-level SSDs and has developed a comprehensive technology stack, positioning itself uniquely in the market [10][13]. Group 4: Global Capitalization Efforts - Companies like Nanya Technology and Montage Technology are pursuing IPOs in Hong Kong to leverage global financing advantages [15]. - Nanya Technology is targeting the niche DRAM market and plans to achieve mass production of advanced DRAM products by Q3 2027 [19]. - Montage Technology aims to provide interconnect solutions for cloud computing and AI infrastructure, with plans for an overseas listing [22]. Group 5: A-Share Market Preparations - Several storage firms are preparing for A-share listings, focusing on governance and business structure to strengthen their capital foundation [23]. - Shenzhen Shichuangyi has initiated IPO counseling, marking a critical phase in its listing preparation [24][26]. - The company has developed a full-chain capability in storage products, covering various applications in consumer electronics and IoT [26]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The capital market is expected to see significant contributions from companies like Changxin Memory and Dapu Micro if they successfully list, addressing gaps in the market from storage media to enterprise-level solutions [30]. - The current capital wave in the storage industry is a result of cyclical benefits and accelerated domestic substitution, with a strong focus on long-term profitability [30].

SK海力士警告称，DRAM供应短缺状况将持续至2028年。此前，包括瑞银，摩根大通，野村证券在内 的国际大行均预测，DRAM短缺将持续至2027年。 在AI引爆存储需求以及行业产能调整等多重因素的影响下，过去几个月，全球存储荒愈演愈烈。据全 球存储三巨头之一，韩国SK海力士的一份意外曝光的内部分析文件，揭示了存储市场供需严重失衡的 局面。 研究机构认为，目前国内相关设备厂商经过长时间的发展，产品性能不断迭代，可覆盖制程以及工艺节 点不断优化，已经在多个领域实现了国产替代。在AI存储需求爆发与供应链自主可控的双重驱动下， 国内半导体设备与材料企业有望持续受益于这一轮超级周期，实现技术突破与市场扩张的良性循环。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 瑞银上周预计，DRAM供应短缺预计将持续至2027年第一季度，其中DDR内存的需求料增长20.7%，远 超供应增速。NAND闪存的短缺态势则预计将持续至2026年第三季度。 ...

出品 | 虎嗅科技组 作者 | 丸都山 编辑 | 苗正卿 头图 | 视觉中国 内存涨价的持续时间及烈度，可能被所有人低估了。 但SK海力士的这份报告无疑表明，即便是等到新增DRAM产能释放，也完全不足以抵消掉市场需求。 那么内存市场如此严重的供需错配，根源究竟在哪里？对于普通消费者来说，又会带来什么样的持续性影 响？ 谁在抢夺DRAM？ 01 我们用一类最有代表性的产品——电脑内存条，去看下DRAM在今年的涨价幅度。 在今年年初，DDR5 16GB（5600MHz）内存条在电商平台的报价在300元左右，而当前同规格内存条的电商 平台价格最低为899元，相当于在不到一年的时间里，价格上涨了200%。 据科技媒体Wccftech报道，一份源于SK海力士内部会议的文件表示， 全球DRAM供不应求的情况预计持续 到2028年底。 这个判断着实是远超出了行业此前的预期，比如在上个月的小米三季度财报电话会议上，卢伟冰就曾表示， 现在各家（手机厂商）普遍承受着源自存储芯片成本的压力，而且明年的产品零售价还会有较大幅度上涨， 直到2027年，这种供需失衡的问题才有望扭转。 卢伟冰提到的"2027年"，实际上也是目前行业普遍认 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board semiconductor materials and equipment index decreased by 0.79%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Tianyue Advanced led the gains with an increase of 2.92%, while Pioneer's Precision fell by 4.42%, indicating volatility in the sector [1] - The Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) saw a decline of 0.85%, with a latest price of 1.41 yuan and a turnover rate of 5.46% during the trading session [1] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) experienced a significant growth of 27.22 billion yuan over the past three months, indicating strong investor interest [2] - UBS forecasts a continued shortage in DRAM supply until Q1 2027, with DDR memory demand expected to grow by 20.7%, outpacing supply growth [2] - NAND flash shortages are anticipated to last until Q3 2026, contributing to the most intense price increase cycle in nearly 30 years, with DDR contract prices expected to rise by 35% in Q4 this year [2] Group 3 - The Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) and its linked funds track the semiconductor materials and equipment index, focusing on companies in semiconductor equipment (61%) and materials (23%) [3] - The semiconductor equipment and materials sector is crucial for domestic substitution, benefiting from low domestic replacement rates and high ceilings for domestic alternatives [3] - The semiconductor materials ETF (562590) also emphasizes the upstream semiconductor sector, with significant allocations to semiconductor equipment (61%) and materials (21%) [3]

Market Overview - As of December 11, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.70% to close at 3873.32 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.27% to 13147.39 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.41% to 3163.67 points [1] - In the overnight U.S. market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.34%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.25%, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.21% [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined by 0.75%, with notable movements in semiconductor stocks such as NXP Semiconductors up by 0.45%, Micron Technology down by 1.99%, ARM down by 3.80%, Applied Materials down by 1.83%, and Microchip Technology up by 1.75% [1] Industry Insights - OpenAI has launched its latest model, GPT-5.2, which is claimed to be the most suitable for real-world professional applications, outperforming or matching top industry professionals in 70.9% of tasks evaluated in the GDPval test [2] - UBS forecasts a continued shortage in DRAM supply until Q1 2027, with DDR memory demand expected to grow by 20.7%, significantly outpacing supply growth. NAND flash shortages are anticipated to last until Q3 2026, leading to the most intense price increase cycle in nearly 30 years, with DDR contract prices projected to rise by 35% and NAND prices by 20% in Q4 of this year [2] - Advanced packaging technology is becoming critical in the AI industry, with TSMC's advanced packaging capacity fully booked, over half of which is reserved by NVIDIA. NVIDIA has secured 800,000 to 850,000 wafers for production in 2026, a significant share compared to competitors like Broadcom and AMD [3] - Semiconductor equipment is identified as the cornerstone of the semiconductor industry, with domestic leaders showing strong performance. In the first three quarters of 2025, eight leading companies reported a revenue increase of 37.3% and a net profit increase of 23.9% [3] Related ETFs - The Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Board Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Index, focusing on semiconductor equipment (61%) and materials (23%), benefiting from the AI-driven semiconductor demand expansion and technological advancements [4] - The Semiconductor Materials ETF (562590) also emphasizes semiconductor equipment (61%) and materials (21%), targeting the upstream semiconductor sector [4]

Group 1 - The global storage industry is experiencing unprecedented supply-demand tension due to surging AI demand and industry capacity adjustments, with a "storage crisis" worsening in recent months [1] - DRAM supply shortages are expected to persist until Q1 2027, with DDR memory demand projected to grow by 20.7%, significantly outpacing supply growth [1][2] - NAND flash shortages are anticipated to last until Q3 2026, leading to the most intense price increase cycle in nearly 30 years, with DDR contract prices expected to rise by 35% and NAND prices by 20% in Q4 this year [2] Group 2 - Major cloud service providers are extending their pre-purchase orders for storage components until 2028, indicating strong actual market demand rather than speculative hoarding [2][3] - Current inventory levels for storage components are critically low, with server DDR memory inventory sufficient for only 11 weeks, DRAM for personal computers and mobile devices for 9 weeks, and SSD inventory for just 8 weeks [2] - SK Hynix is expected to maintain a dominant position in the HBM4 market, holding approximately 70% market share, with target prices for SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics being raised significantly [4]

Core Insights - The global storage industry is facing unprecedented supply-demand tension due to surging AI demand and industry capacity adjustments [4] - UBS forecasts that the DRAM supply shortage will persist until Q1 2027, with DDR memory demand expected to grow by 20.7%, significantly outpacing supply growth [5] - The NAND flash shortage is anticipated to last until Q3 2026, leading to the most intense price increase cycle in nearly 30 years [6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major cloud service providers are extending their pre-purchase orders to 2028, indicating strong actual market demand rather than speculative hoarding [7][8] - Current inventory levels are critically low, with server DDR memory inventory sufficient for only 11 weeks, DRAM for personal computers and mobile devices for 9 weeks, and SSD inventory for just 8 weeks [7] Price Trends - UBS predicts a 35% quarter-on-quarter increase in DDR contract pricing and a 20% increase in NAND flash prices in Q4 this year, both exceeding previous expectations [6] - Further price increases are expected in Q1 2026, with DDR contract pricing projected to rise by 30% and NAND prices by 20% [6] Market Positioning - SK Hynix is expected to maintain a dominant position in the HBM4 market, holding approximately 70% market share [10] - UBS has raised target prices for leading storage manufacturers, increasing SK Hynix's target price from 710,000 KRW to 853,000 KRW and Samsung Electronics' target price from 128,000 KRW to 154,000 KRW, maintaining a buy rating for both [10]

Core Viewpoint - UBS believes that the traditional DRAM market is experiencing a significant shift due to a supply squeeze, leading to enhanced pricing power and profitability for traditional DRAM, which is expected to surpass HBM margins starting in Q2 2026 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The shift in industry capacity towards HBM has resulted in a tightening supply of traditional DRAM, while demand remains robust, creating a mismatch that drives up pricing power [7]. - UBS forecasts that traditional DRAM gross margins will reach 67% in Q2 2026, surpassing HBM's 62% for the first time, with margins expected to further increase to 71% in Q3 and 75% in Q4 [5][11]. Group 2: Financial Projections - For Q1 FY2026, traditional DRAM revenue is projected to be $8.22 billion, with a mere 1% increase in shipment volume but a significant 16% rise in average selling price [5]. - UBS's revenue and EPS forecasts for Micron in Q1 FY2026 are significantly higher than management's guidance, driven primarily by improved pricing [12]. Group 3: HBM Business Outlook - Although HBM remains a core growth story for Micron, UBS anticipates a slowdown in HBM revenue growth due to capacity constraints, with Q1 FY2026 HBM revenue expected to grow approximately 35% quarter-over-quarter [8]. - For the full year, UBS estimates HBM revenue will reach $13.05 billion in FY2026 and increase to $21.24 billion in FY2027, with HBM's share of total revenue rising from 17% in FY2025 to 26% in FY2027 [11]. Group 4: Long-term Market Trends - UBS emphasizes that the current semiconductor cycle may last longer than market expectations due to HBM's significant consumption of wafer capacity, effectively creating a "crowding out" effect on the traditional storage market [11][12]. - The report indicates that the structural supply shortage provides a durable competitive advantage for major players like Micron [11].

到2026年第二季度，这一历史性逆转将发生，传统DRAM毛利率预计达67%，首次超越 HBM的62%。此后这一优势将持续扩大，第三季度传统DRAM毛利率将达71%，第四季度 更是高达75%。 瑞银表示，尽管市场对美光HBM业务的关注度极高，但传统的DDR内存正因产能挤压而迎来前所未有 的利润率爆发。 据追风交易台，瑞银在最新的报告中表示，内存行业正迎来结构性转变。在AI热潮席卷全球之际，由 于产能挤压，美光"旧时代"的DDR内存业务的盈利能力即将反超其明星产品HBM（高带宽内存）。 具体来看，瑞银表示，管理层最新表态显示供应紧张程度较三个月前加剧并延长，这将持续支撑定价能 力，传统DRAM毛利率有望达到67%的历史高位。 瑞银预计2026财年第二季度毛利率将达60.8%，较公司指引高出260个基点。此外，瑞银重申了对美光 的"买入"评级，并将目标价维持在275美元。 2026年第二季度传统DDR毛利率将反超HBM 市场普遍认为HBM是存储芯片制造商的利润引擎，但瑞银通过供应链调查发现了新的趋势。由于全行 业将大部分新增产能分配给HBM，导致传统DRAM供应极度紧张，从而推高了其定价权。瑞银大胆预 测，这一供需 ...

Group 1 - The global memory market is experiencing significant price pressure, with DRAM prices expected to rise by an additional 30% by Q4 2025 and a further 20% in early 2026, leading to a cumulative increase of up to 50% by Q2 2026 [1] - The core reason for the current memory supply tightness is the shortage of older memory chips, as major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix prioritize production for advanced chips to meet the high demand in the AI sector [1] - A market price inversion has occurred, where the spot price for new DDR5 memory is approximately $1.50 per gigabit, while the price for older LPDDR4 memory has surged to $2.10, exceeding even the advanced HBM3e memory [1] Group 2 - NVIDIA's strategic shift towards using LPDDR memory in servers, moving away from traditional DDR memory with error-correcting code (ECC), is expected to have a profound impact on the supply chain, creating a "seismic" change that will be difficult to absorb in the short term [3] - The initial impact of the memory market fluctuations will primarily affect low-end smartphone manufacturers using LPDDR4, with subsequent effects expected to spread to mid-range smartphones [3] - The bill of materials (BoM) cost for mid-to-high-end smartphones may increase by over 25%, potentially eroding manufacturers' profit margins and forcing companies to raise product prices, introducing uncertainty into the industry [3]