Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q2 performance of the company met expectations, and there is optimism regarding the recovery of long filament profitability. The company reported a H1 2025 revenue of 44.158 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.097 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.93% [5][6] - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 2.541 billion yuan, 3.648 billion yuan, and 4.274 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.06, 1.52, and 1.78 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 13.6, 9.5, and 8.1 times for the respective years [5][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company produced and sold 6.54 million tons and 5.95 million tons of polyester filament respectively, with a production and sales rate of 91.0%. In Q2, production and sales were 3.25 million tons and 3.45 million tons, showing a quarter-on-quarter change of -1.3% and +38.2% respectively [6] - The gross profit margin and net profit margin for H1 2025 were 6.76% and 2.50%, while for Q2 2025, they were 6.01% and 1.98%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.70 percentage points and 1.18 percentage points respectively [6] - The average price difference for polyester filament POY in Q2 2025 was 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.27% from Q1 2025. Conversely, the PTA price difference increased to 248 yuan/ton, up 72.01% from Q1 2025, indicating improved PTA profitability [6] Market Outlook - The inventory levels for polyester filament products are currently low, with POY, FDY, and DTY having inventory days of 16, 18.7, and 25.4 days respectively. The upcoming demand peak in September and October is expected to enhance profitability for filament products [7] - The long filament industry has passed its peak production phase, and future capacity growth is expected to slow down. The industry is characterized by high concentration, which may enhance pricing power and synergy effects for leading companies, supporting long-term profitability recovery [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PTA market: The PTA market is bearish due to weak crude oil prices and news of possible production cuts in downstream polyester bottle chips. Domestic PTA production has slightly decreased due to concentrated breakdowns and maintenance of PTA plants. The spread between PX and naphtha has widened, and the weak benzene price has restricted the further increase of PX production. The spread between PX and MX has recovered, and the downstream polyester load has remained at around 88%. The polyester price has shown a positive trend, especially the inventory of filament has been well reduced, and the production and sales have been continuously optimistic with obvious profit repair. [2] - MEG market: There are rumors that China is planning a major reform of its petrochemical and refining industries, aiming to gradually eliminate small - scale and outdated facilities and shift investment to advanced materials. South Korean naphtha cracking units are planning to cut production, and olefin varieties have risen significantly. The price of ethylene glycol has recovered, and the continuous postponement of overseas ethylene glycol plant maintenance, especially in Saudi Arabia, may have a significant impact on the market outlook. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased, the polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load has increased. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil and PTA - Crude Oil Relationship**: INE crude oil price increased from 479.7 yuan/barrel on August 27, 2025, to 481.7 yuan/barrel on August 28, 2025. The PTA - SC spread decreased from 1338.0 yuan/ton to 1291.4 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3838 to 1.3689. [2] - **PX Data**: CFR China PX price decreased from 854 to 849, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 254 to 259. [2] - **PTA Data**: PTA主力期价 decreased from 4824 yuan/ton to 4792 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot price decreased from 4835 yuan/ton to 4775 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 220.5 yuan/ton to 215.2 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased from 239.5 yuan/ton to 237.2 yuan/ton. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 30940 to 29938. [2] - **MEG Data**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 4481 yuan/ton to 4465 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (93.21) yuan/ton to (95.40) yuan/ton, and the MEG inner - market price decreased from 4553 yuan/ton to 4527 yuan/ton. [2] - **Industry Chain Start - up Rate**: PX start - up rate remained at 80.38%, PTA start - up rate decreased from 72.16% to 70.76%, MEG start - up rate remained at 60.27%, and polyester load decreased from 86.11% to 86.03%. [2] - **Polyester Product Data**: - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price decreased from 6882 to 6860, and its cash flow increased from (24) to 11. FDY150D/96F price remained at 7140, and its cash flow increased from (269) to (209). DTY150D/48F price remained at 8040, and its cash flow increased from (69) to (9). The filament production and sales rate increased from 40% to 43%. [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6680 to 6655, and its cash flow increased from 121 to 156. The staple fiber production and sales rate increased from 39% to 40%. [2] - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - bright chip price decreased from 5880 to 5860, and its cash flow increased from (129) to (89). The chip production and sales rate decreased from 67% to 42%. [2] Device Maintenance A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in South China has started maintenance today, and another 2.5 - million - ton plant is expected to start maintenance around August 23, with an expected maintenance time of about one month. [2] Trading Suggestions - PTA: Due to significant fluctuations in the recent polyester futures price, investors are advised to participate with caution and pay attention to the impact of subsequent plant progress on the market. [2] - MEG: The price recovery of ethylene glycol is affected by multiple factors such as industry reform rumors and overseas plant maintenance postponement, and attention should be paid to the impact of these factors on the market. [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in revenue and net profit in 2024, with operating income reaching 101.31 billion yuan, up 22.6% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.20 billion yuan, up 50.8% year-on-year [6] - The company is the largest polyester filament manufacturer in China and is expected to benefit from industry recovery and new capacity investments in regions like Fujian and Anhui [9] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 25.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, and a net profit of 195 million yuan, up 283.2% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 19.42 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 5.4% year-on-year to 611 million yuan [6] - The company’s polyester production capacity is approximately 13 million tons per year, and it plans to add two new production lines in 2025, which are expected to enhance profitability [6][9] Industry Outlook - The growth rate of polyester filament production capacity is expected to slow down significantly, with a projected CAGR of 1.5% from 2024 to 2026 [7] - The demand for polyester filament is anticipated to increase by 18% year-on-year in 2024, with an absolute increment of nearly 5 million tons [7] - The industry is undergoing consolidation, with the market share of the top six companies increasing from 48% in 2018 to 66% in 2023, indicating a trend towards higher industry concentration [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, with revenue of 19.42 billion yuan, down 8.01% year-on-year and down 23.11% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 611 million yuan, up 5.36% year-on-year and up 213.00% quarter-on-quarter. The performance is in line with expectations, and the company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 2.541 billion, 3.648 billion, and 4.274 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.06, 1.52, and 1.78 yuan, leading to PE ratios of 10.1, 7.0, and 6.0 times respectively. The outlook remains positive due to steady demand growth and an optimized supply structure, which is expected to lead to a recovery in long filament profitability [5][6][8] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company produced and sold 3.29 million and 2.50 million tons of long filaments, respectively, with production up 4.9% year-on-year and sales down 3.3%. The overall production and sales rate was 76%. The sales gross margin for Q1 2025 was 7.71%, an increase of 1.00 percentage points year-on-year and 4.56 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The average price difference for polyester long filament POY in Q1 2025 was 1,330 yuan/ton, up 21.1% year-on-year and 8.4% quarter-on-quarter [6][8][10] Financial Forecast - The financial forecast for Tongkun Co., Ltd. includes projected revenues of 94.684 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.541 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 111.4%. The gross margin is projected to be 7.1% in 2025, increasing to 8.7% by 2027 [8][10][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5] Core Views - The company reported a slight year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a revenue of 19.42 billion yuan, down 8.01% year-on-year and down 23.11% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 611 million yuan, up 5.36% year-on-year and up 213.00% quarter-on-quarter. The performance is generally in line with expectations [5][6] - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 2.54 billion yuan, 3.65 billion yuan, and 4.27 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.06 yuan, 1.52 yuan, and 1.78 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 10.1, 7.0, and 6.0 respectively [5][6] - The report highlights the expectation of gradual recovery in long filament profitability due to steady demand growth and optimized supply structure, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5][6] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's long filament production and sales volumes were 3.29 million tons and 2.50 million tons respectively, with production up 4.9% year-on-year and sales down 3.3%. The overall production and sales rate was 76% [6] - The sales gross margin for Q1 2025 was 7.71%, an increase of 1.00 percentage points year-on-year and 4.56 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The average price difference for polyester long filament POY was 1,330 yuan/ton, up 21.1% year-on-year and 8.4% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The financial forecast indicates a revenue of 94.68 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%. The net profit is projected to increase significantly by 111.4% in 2025 [8][10]

Group 1 - The company reported a total revenue of 67.09 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 1.1 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 960 million yuan, an increase of 7.1% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 17.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.2% [1] Group 2 - The polyester filament industry is experiencing a supply-demand balance, with a projected apparent consumption of 42 million tons in China for 2024, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year [2] - The company completed maintenance on five production units and added one new filament unit in 2024, leading to improved performance metrics across various production lines [2] - The gross profit margin and net profit margin for 2024 are expected to be 5.6% and 1.6%, respectively, showing limited changes compared to the previous year [2] Group 3 - The polyester filament industry is expected to see an upward trend in its economic environment, with a projected decrease in new capacity by 2.3% year-on-year for 2024 [3] - The industry has initiated a "High-Quality Development Initiative" aimed at improving profitability through self-regulation [3] - Despite trade tensions, the impact on the domestic polyester filament industry is expected to be limited due to China's dominant supply position [3]