Market Overview - The recent oil market has experienced significant volatility, with prices showing both sharp increases and declines throughout the week, indicating a certain level of fragility in the current pricing environment [5][42] - Reports at the beginning of the year suggested that 2026 would be a year of oversupply, with fundamental price estimates around WTI $60 per barrel, but geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, have introduced uncertainty [5][42] - The market reacted to news of potential Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz, which temporarily drove prices up before a pullback due to broader market conditions [5][42] Price Data - As of January 30, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at $70.69 per barrel, up $4.81 (+7.3%) from the previous week; WTI crude futures settled at $65.21 per barrel, up $4.14 (+6.78%); Dubai crude futures settled at $67.86 per barrel, up $4.05 (+6.35%) [6][43] - The price movements were influenced by increased liquidity in the market due to rising gold prices and heightened geopolitical risk premiums related to US-Iran tensions [9][43] EIA Data Analysis - The EIA reported a significant decrease in crude oil inventories, with a reduction of 2.295 million barrels; production slightly declined to 13.696 million barrels per day, while imports fell by 805,000 barrels per day and exports increased by 901,000 barrels per day, leading to a net import decrease [6][24][57] - Despite the decrease in supply, downstream refined product demand remains weak, particularly outside of gasoline, indicating a mixed outlook for the oil market [6][24][57] Terminal Demand - US highway transportation activity has shown typical seasonal adjustments, with a decrease in freight volume and capacity following the peak season, indicating limited potential demand decline [30][62] - The overall transportation situation has stabilized, although winter weather poses short-term challenges [30][62] Domestic Refinery Operations - Refinery utilization rates decreased by 2.4% to 90.90%, remaining above historical averages, indicating stable operations despite the slight decline [25][59] - The processing margins for major refineries were reported at 659.83 CNY per ton, while independent refineries saw a significant drop in profitability, down 34.75% from the previous week [35][59]

Market Overview - Recent crude oil prices have shown a strong fluctuation, with Brent crude futures settling at $65.88 per barrel, up $1.75 (+2.73%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $61.07 per barrel, an increase of $1.63 (+2.74%) [6][49][53] - The market remains tense due to geopolitical factors, including potential changes in Iran and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, alongside the U.S. military presence in the Middle East [5][48][55] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The latest EIA data indicates a weekly crude oil inventory increase of 3.602 million barrels, with gasoline inventories rising by 5.977 million barrels, both exceeding expectations [6][49][73] - Despite a slight reduction in production, overall demand appears weak, suggesting a continued trend of inventory accumulation [6][49][73] Geopolitical Influences - The U.S. has increased military presence in the Middle East, raising concerns about potential military actions against Iran, which could impact oil prices significantly [5][55] - The upcoming "U.S.-Ukraine" trilateral talks are expected to influence geopolitical tensions and, consequently, crude oil prices in the near future [5][48] Market Sentiment - The recent Davos Forum highlighted significant geopolitical narratives, with discussions around U.S. inflation, energy policies, and international relations affecting market perceptions [9][52] - The divergence in market sentiment regarding U.S. actions towards Iran reflects uncertainty, with mixed signals from U.S. officials regarding military engagement [5][55] Refinery Operations - U.S. refinery utilization has decreased by 2.0% to 93.30%, remaining above historical averages, indicating stable operational conditions despite minor fluctuations [76] - The overall demand for refined products has shown mixed trends, with gasoline demand slightly declining due to seasonal adjustments and extreme weather conditions [76][78]

Market Overview - The oil market experienced significant fluctuations due to ongoing tensions between the US and Iran, with prices reacting to changing expectations regarding military actions [5][41] - As of December 16, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $59.4 per barrel, up $0.32 (0.54%) from the previous week, while Brent crude settled at $64.1 per barrel, up $0.79 (1.25%) [5][41] Inventory and Supply Data - The EIA reported a decrease in crude oil inventories by 3.39 million barrels, attributed to increased net imports and sustained high production levels [6][42] - Gasoline inventories saw a notable increase of 8.977 million barrels, indicating a softening demand and rising refinery utilization rates [6][42] Price Dynamics - The price differential between Brent and WTI has widened, primarily due to concerns over CPC Blend crude following an attack on a Kazakh oil tanker, alongside ongoing supply constraints from the US and increased imports from Venezuela [49] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of a return to a more stable pricing environment once geopolitical tensions ease [11][41] Refinery Operations - US refinery utilization rates increased slightly by 0.6% to 95.30%, maintaining historical highs, with minimal disruptions in maintenance activities [61] - The processing margins for major refineries rose by 12.53%, while independent refineries saw a decline of 24.28% in profitability [69] Demand Trends - The US transportation sector is experiencing typical seasonal adjustments, with a decrease in freight volumes and capacity following the peak season [65] - Overall, the demand for refined products remains mixed, with gasoline demand stable and significant increases in demand for distillate fuels [63]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 # 2 2 7 一、原油近期市场行情总结 行情回顾:上周原油价格呈现出了大幅波动,尽管目前EIA数据并求出现明显供需差好转,一季度原油 基本面仍然处于相对过利阶段,但在本周内市场主要的交易锚点却持续脱离基本面交易,进而种向地煤 风险交易。本周从周初因美国总统特朗普宣称委释放委内瑞拉产量并且移交3000-5000万桶石油的消息 后,油价快递下跌,又在市场评估出美国无法快递于委内瑞拉增产,以及伊朗与以色列冲突不断加刷的 请况下出现大幅反弹,整体周内行情呈现深V走势,目前原油价格仍处于地球风险计价过程中,如果后 续伊朗与以色列冲突加剧,或是伊朗内部发生问题,很难让我们不去联想25年6月的那波原油跳深。 原油价格: 截至2025年12月9日当周,布伦特原油期货结算价为63.34关元/桶,较上周上涨1.58美元/桶 (2.56%):WTI原油期货结算价为59.12美元/桶,较上周上涨0.8美元/桶(1.37%):DUBAI原油期货站 算价为61.92美元/桶,较上周上涨1.54美元/桶(2.55%)。 数据分析:本周EIA数据,原油库 ...

Market Overview - Recent oil prices experienced a rapid decline followed by a phase of bottoming out, influenced by geopolitical developments and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela [5][43] - As of December 19, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $60.5 per barrel, down $0.6 (-1.36%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $56.7 per barrel, also down $0.8 (-1.36%) [10][48] - The market is currently focused on geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Russia and Ukraine, and the implications of U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [5][43] Supply and Demand Analysis - The EIA reported an unexpected drawdown in crude oil inventories, attributed to the end of maintenance at downstream CDU units and year-end demand [6][44] - Despite an increase in refinery utilization rates leading to higher production of refined products, overall demand has not shown significant improvement, resulting in a build-up of refined product inventories [6][44] Price Data - The price data indicates that Brent crude futures are at $60.5 per barrel, WTI at $56.7 per barrel, and Dubai crude at $60.9 per barrel, all reflecting declines from the previous week [10][48] - The Brent-WTI spread remains stable, with the WTI-Brent differential showing slight changes, indicating a market that is adjusting to supply and demand dynamics [12][54] Refinery Operations - U.S. refinery utilization has slightly increased by 0.3% to 94.8%, remaining above historical averages, with a significant reduction in maintenance activities [28][66] - The number of refineries undergoing maintenance has decreased significantly, suggesting that supply-side stability is improving [28][66] Terminal Demand - U.S. terminal demand for gasoline has shown a notable increase, with gasoline demand reaching 9.078 million barrels per day, up 622,000 barrels per day (7.36%) from the previous week [30][68] - Overall, while gasoline demand is recovering, other refined products are still experiencing weak demand [30][68]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 行情回顾:上周原油期价大幅回落,尽管周内不断地传来如低乌谈判陷入债局、美国扣押委内瑞拉沁轮以 及哈萨克斯坦原油出口仍因港口问题未得到修复等阶段性利好新闻,但极度宽松的原油供应数据仍作为 市场交易的主旋律,供应过剩将一切的阶段性利多消息牢牢压制。根据本周发布的EIA月报数据,其机构 将10-11月过刺量进行了向上调整,倒而反映出当前基本面的过利局面,且也印证了Kpler数据中的大幅 累摩,所以在阶段性利好新闻并未有实质性发酵的基础下,本周的原油价格不断刷新日内饭点。 原油价格: 截至2025年12月12日当周,布伦纳原油期货结算价为61.12美元/桶,较上周下降1.37美元/桶 (-2.19%):WTI原油期货结算价为57.44美元/桶,较上周下降1.44美元/桶(-1.87%):DUBAI原油期货 结算价为61.46美元/桶,较上周下降1.83美元/桶(-2.89%)。 数据分析:本周EIA数据,原油图下游补库以及装置检修的恢复,出现一定量的去鼻,但下游成品油虽 出现积极复产。但消费比较于产量并未形成足够支撑,从而整体库存进 ...