研究报告 Research Report [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 下调至中性 Downgrade to NEUTRAL 评级 中性 NEUTRAL 现价 HK$150.70 目标价 HK$158.76 HTI ESG 4.0-4.0-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$202.10bn / US$25.85bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$415.48mn 发行股票数目 1,341mn 自由流通股 (%) 50% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$335.40-HK$126.90 注：现价 HK$150.70 为 2026 年 03 月 26 日收盘价 资料来源： Factset 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 -35.3% -24.7% 19.2% 绝对值（美元） -35.3% -25.1% 18.6% 相对 MSCI China -30.9% -18.0% 15.9% [Table_Profit] Rmb mn Dec- ...

研究报告 Research Report 泡泡玛特 Pop Mart International (9992 HK) 交接覆盖：2025 利润低于预期，26 年全流程进一步优化 2025 Earnings Miss, with Further Optimization of Entire Process in 2026: Transferring Coverage [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 下调至中性 Downgrade to NEUTRAL 评级 中性 NEUTRAL 现价 HK$150.70 目标价 HK$158.76 HTI ESG 4.0-4.0-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$202.10bn / US$25.85bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$415.48mn 发行股票数目 1,341mn 自由流通股 (%) 50% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$335.40-HK$126.90 注：现价 HK$150.70 为 ...

26 March 2026 | 7:19AM HKT Equity Research Pop Mart (9992.HK) Earnings review: A year to enhance operation and organization; continuous efforts in IP ecosystem; Neutral 9992.HK 12m Price Target: HK$184.00 Price: HK$168.30 Upside: 9.3% Pop Mart reported 2H25 revenue/NP growth of 174%/272% to Rmb23.2bn/8.2bn, which came in 8%/10% below GSe, mainly on lower-than-expected sales growth in Americas (+633% yoy, vs. 1,265%-1,270% in 3Q25) and Europe & other regions (+436% yoy, vs. 735%-740% in 3Q25), and FX loss. T ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Pop Mart Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart - **Industry**: Toy and Collectibles Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart's revenue increased by over 200% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders growing nearly fourfold [2][3] - The revenue growth forecast for Q3 2025 is close to 250%, with overseas market growth nearing four times [2][3] - Despite strong financial performance, the stock price fell nearly 50% from its peak in August 2025 to early 2026, indicating a significant divergence from fundamentals [2][3] Market Sentiment and Concerns - There is a shift in sentiment among overseas hedge funds, with short positions increasing from 1% to 9% since late August 2025, while southbound capital holdings rose from 13% to 20% [2][3] - Market concerns include the potential peak of IP popularity, slowing short-term growth, valuation discounts, and the impact of expanded supply on secondary market prices, which could affect core fan demand [2][5] Strategic Responses - Pop Mart is diversifying its IP portfolio (e.g., Dimoo, SP) and product forms (e.g., plush toys, electronic products) to address market concerns [2][6] - The success of the Lazhu Bu IP has not only boosted short-term performance but also attracted new user demographics, breaking the perception that trendy toys are limited to PVC figures [2][11] Global Expansion Strategy - The company emphasizes local cultural integration in its global market expansion, successfully launching localized IPs like Cray Baby in Thailand and Star People in North America [4][12] - Pop Mart aims for a sales target of 50 billion RMB in 2026, with equal contributions from domestic and international markets, indicating significant growth potential [4][16] Innovation in IP and Product Development - Pop Mart has evolved from relying on a single IP (Molly) to a diverse portfolio, including multiple high-revenue IPs and innovative product forms [6][10] - Recent product innovations include the electronic wooden fish and Star People, which have been well-received and are expected to drive future growth [17] Future Outlook - The long-term outlook for Pop Mart is optimistic, with expectations of continued growth driven by the development of local and subcultural symbols [13][16] - The company is well-positioned to leverage its established IP incubation mechanisms and expand its global footprint through localized strategies and physical store openings [23] Specific IP Developments - The Lazhu Bu IP has undergone significant evolution, adapting to market demands and maintaining its appeal through various iterations [18][19] - The Star People IP has shown strong potential, with a rapid iteration cycle and effective marketing strategies leading to substantial revenue growth [21][22] Additional Important Insights - The market's perception of the sustainability of IP popularity and the potential for a sharp decline in demand remains a critical concern [5] - Pop Mart's ability to manage the lifecycle of its IPs effectively, including revitalizing older IPs, has proven successful in maintaining market value [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's share price has faced pressure due to concerns over the fading popularity of Labubu and slower growth, but these concerns are viewed as overdone, with buybacks expected to restore market confidence [1] Group 1: Company Performance and Outlook - Pop Mart initiated buybacks of 1.34 million shares at HK$179.6 per share on January 19, 2026, marking the first buyback since February 15, 2024, signaling confidence in earnings and outlook [3] - The company expects robust revenue and net profit year-on-year growth of 32.8% and 37.6% respectively in 2026, driven by new product launches and overseas expansion [1] - The Monsters series, including Labubu, is projected to account for approximately 35% of global sales in 2025, with expectations to maintain this ratio in 2026 through new product launches [3] Group 2: Overseas Expansion - Concerns regarding overseas expansion are noted, but channel checks indicate a 60% repeat purchase rate among overseas consumers, suggesting sustained interest in various IPs [4] - Pop Mart plans to expand its store network to 691 by 2026, representing a 17% year-on-year increase, with significant growth expected in the US market [4] - The company aims to open 30 new stores in the US in 2026, increasing its total store count there to 92, a 53% rise [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investor Concerns - Investors are primarily concerned about the fading popularity of Labubu and potential declines in store traffic as the brand's appeal diminishes [2] - The fragmentation of the overseas market raises concerns about growth outlook compared to 2023-2024 [2] Group 4: Valuation and Target Price - The target price has been revised to HK$291.9 based on a 20x 2026 P/E, reflecting a lower target multiple due to increased uncertainty regarding near-term growth [6] - Despite adjustments in revenue and EPS forecasts for 2025-2027, the company maintains a BUY rating, citing attractive valuation relative to growth potential [6]

Group 1 - The popularity of Labubu and Dimoo in Thailand has led to significant demand, with reports of reselling at two to three times the original price during shortages, and limited editions reaching around 3000 RMB [1] - The trend of sharing unboxing videos on TikTok among Thai youth highlights the cultural impact and status associated with these collectible toys [1] - Bubble Mart plans to open a store in Central World, Bangkok, in the summer of 2025, indicating strong local interest, as evidenced by long queues for exclusive Thai editions [1] Group 2 - Labubu and Dimoo are recognized as "friendship ambassadors" between China and Thailand, with Dimoo receiving an honorary title for the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations [2] - Bubble Mart's financial performance shows remarkable growth, with overall revenue increasing by 245%-250% year-on-year in Q3, and overseas revenue soaring by 365%-370% [2]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China has established itself as a "cool" destination, as evidenced by global surveys and social media trends, particularly through the popularity of trendy toys like Labubu, which reflect cultural and emotional connections among young consumers [1][25]. Group 1: Trendy Toys and Cultural Impact - Labubu and similar toys have become viral sensations, appealing to teens and celebrities, and are characterized by their unique "ugly-cute" design [2][5]. - The dolls have sparked a global craze, with consumers willing to queue for hours to purchase them, indicating their high demand and cultural significance [3][4]. - Collecting these dolls has evolved into a form of emotional companionship for Generation Z, who view them as reflections of their identities [7][9]. Group 2: Emotional Consumption and Social Currency - Young consumers prioritize emotional value over material utility, leading to a shift in purchasing behavior where toys serve as carriers of emotional companionship [8][9]. - The dolls function as social currency, helping individuals express their identity and connect with communities, both online and offline [18][24]. - The blind box mechanism and the scarcity of certain models enhance the collecting experience, fostering a sense of community among enthusiasts [23][24]. Group 3: Integration of Traditional Culture - Trendy toys like Labubu are being integrated with traditional Chinese cultural elements, showcasing a blend of modern collectibles and heritage [19][21]. - Customization of dolls with traditional outfits has gained popularity, highlighting the intersection of contemporary design and cultural preservation [22][21]. - This fusion not only enhances the appeal of the toys but also promotes Chinese culture on a global scale, resonating with diverse audiences [12][15]. Group 4: Global Narrative and Emotional Resonance - The success of characters like Labubu and Nezha signifies a new era for China's cultural and creative industries, emphasizing emotional resonance and connection [15][25]. - These toys facilitate emotional exchanges and narratives that transcend cultural boundaries, reinforcing China's position in the global market [25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Pop Mart (09992) maintains a "buy" rating due to its rich IP matrix and mature operational capabilities, which continue to activate overseas markets and expand offline channels, leading to sales surges during holiday seasons [1][2] - The company has successfully expanded its global presence, with a total of 171 overseas retail stores as of October 30, including 62 in North America, 28 in Europe, and 44 in Southeast Asia, indicating significant growth potential in new regions [2] - The popularity of the Labubu IP and other new products is expected to drive social engagement and revenue growth during the upcoming holiday season, particularly around Halloween and year-end festivities [2][3] Group 2 - The company has demonstrated its long-term IP operation capabilities, with successful product innovation maintaining fan engagement, while the overall brand strength has significantly improved due to the global success of Labubu and other leading IPs [3][4] - The business model is viewed as having strong competitive barriers, with the ability to realize long-term value from IP through effective operations, as evidenced by the healthy supply-demand ecosystem for its products [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan maintains a "buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992), highlighting its strong IP matrix and operational capabilities that continue to activate overseas markets and expand offline channels, leading to sales surges during holiday seasons [1] Group 1: Global Expansion and Market Demand - The globalization process is progressing steadily, with a focus on expanding overseas supply chains and channels to meet global fan demand [1] - The collectible toy category has strong display, social, and gifting attributes, making offline channels crucial for sales and brand marketing [1] - As of October 30, the number of overseas retail stores reached 171, with significant growth potential in North America (62 stores), Europe (28 stores), and Southeast Asia (44 stores) [1] - The recent Halloween product launches in North America have generated strong sales, and the upcoming holiday season is expected to boost social engagement and revenue growth for new IPs like Labubu [1] Group 2: Brand Strength and IP Development - The success of a single IP does not hinder the overall platform development, with the brand's strength significantly improving [2] - Labubu's revenue contribution is healthy, and the company has demonstrated its long-term IP operation capabilities through product innovation and iteration [2] - The global popularity of Labubu and other key IPs has elevated Pop Mart's brand presence, exemplified by participation in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade [2] Group 3: Long-term Business Model Viability - The company is viewed as one of the most competitive globally in terms of IP design, operation, and supply chain, capable of realizing long-term value through effective IP management [3] - Recent product launches have maintained a slight premium, indicating a healthier supply-demand ecosystem compared to June, which is beneficial for cultivating long-term fans [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the steady progress of globalization, with a positive outlook on overseas supply chain and channel expansion to meet global fan demand [1] - The collectible toy category possesses strong display, social, and gifting attributes, making offline channels crucial for sales and brand marketing [1] - As of October 30, the company has expanded its overseas retail store count to 171, aligning with its strategic plan, with significant growth potential in North America, Europe, Southeast Asia, and East Asia [1] Group 2 - The performance of a single IP does not hinder the overall platform development, with the company's brand strength significantly improving [2] - The company has demonstrated its long-term IP operation capabilities, maintaining fan engagement through product innovation and iteration [2] - The global popularity of Labubu and other leading IPs has elevated the company's brand power, as evidenced by participation in major events like the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade [2] Group 3 - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 38.865 billion, 52.738 billion, and 66.946 billion respectively, reflecting an optimistic outlook on store openings and product launches [2] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 13.648 billion, 18.429 billion, and 23.569 billion, indicating confidence in the company's long-term operational capabilities and competitive landscape [2]