1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances are high. Under the influence of Maersk's stable February quotes, the expectation of a rush to ship in March, the expectation of an off - season in April, and the suppression of long - term contract prices, the 04 contract will fluctuate between 1100 - 1250 points. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling the 04 contract and pay attention to whether there is a significant premium on the market. The upward space depends more on capital behavior. With the current basis of 300 points, beware of long - position capital driving up the price. In the long - term, it is still recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies, mainly based on the bearish logic of the off - season and tax rebates. The valuations of the 06 and 08 contracts are difficult to determine, and they will fluctuate widely within a reasonable range. It is recommended to operate with caution under geopolitical disturbances [3][30] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Contract Information - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1720.0, up 0.19%, with a basis of 72.1, a trading volume of 294, an open interest of 2339, and an open interest change of - 212 [2][29] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1184.6, down 3.46%, with a basis of 607.5, a trading volume of 32818, an open interest of 33806, and an open interest change of - 2075 [2][29] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1513.1, down 1.93%, with a basis of 279.0, a trading volume of 5944, an open interest of 12598, and an open interest change of 295 [2][29] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1607.9, up 0.06%, with a basis of 184.2, a trading volume of 1131, an open interest of 1450, and an open interest change of - 144 [2][29] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1130.0, up 0.67%, with a basis of 662.1, a trading volume of 2504, an open interest of 7884, and an open interest change of - 250 [2][29] 3.2 Month - spread Information - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's value was 535.4, the value two days ago was 489.7, the value three days ago was 467.8, the daily change was 45.7, and the weekly change was 11.8 [2][29] - EC2504 - 2606: The previous day's value was - 328.5, the value two days ago was - 315.8, the value three days ago was - 326.3, the daily change was - 12.7, and the weekly change was - 80.2 [2][29] 3.3 Index Information - Spot (European route): Updated weekly on Mondays, as of 2026/2/2, the value was 1792.14 points, down 3.61% from the previous period and down 4.86% from the period before the previous one [2][29] - SCFI (European route): Updated weekly on Fridays, as of 2026/1/30, the value was 1418 dollars/TEU, down 11.10% from the previous period and down 4.83% from the period before the previous one [2][29] 3.4 European Route Spot Situation - This week, downstream customers are booking shipping space for early February (week 6 - 7). Currently, the overall cargo - receiving situation of ships is good, but the pressure to attract cargo has increased, and shipping companies need to attract cargo for ships departing during the Spring Festival holiday. The price center in week 7 is 2140 US dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the market. From week 8 - 9, MSK's opening price is 1950 US dollars (unchanged from the previous period), and other shipping companies' quotes are also mainly unchanged [4][31] 3.5 News - On 2/3, the Israeli army's chief of staff said that the Israeli army is in a "period of enhancing war preparedness" [4][31] - On 2/3, US media reported that Iran is willing to suspend its nuclear program, and senior US and Iranian officials are communicating directly via text messages. Senior US and Iranian officials are expected to meet in Istanbul on Friday to ease tensions between the two countries. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi and US envoy Witkoff are communicating directly via text messages. Sources said that Iran is willing to close or suspend its nuclear program, which is regarded as a major concession. However, it prefers to adopt the proposal of establishing a regional nuclear power production consortium put forward last year. Iranian National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani recently met with Russian President Putin in Moscow and conveyed a message from Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, indicating that Iran can agree to transport its enriched uranium inventory to Russia, similar to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [4][31] - On 2/3, US media reported that the US - Iran nuclear negotiations are expected to be held on Friday, and the US envoy has a busy schedule this week [4][31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For contract 04, pay attention to spot and actual shipping. Before the Spring Festival, falling spot prices suppress the futures market, so shorting on rallies is relatively safe. However, falling freight rates may prompt shipping companies to raise prices and stimulate a post - holiday rush, potentially weakening the decline slope in March. Currently, the valuation of 04 is neutral, with shorting on rallies as the main strategy before the Spring Festival, and geopolitical fluctuations should be noted. - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical fluctuations. It is recommended to operate cautiously, mainly using a positive spread strategy. Currently, the valuation of 10 is moderately high, and opportunities to short 10 on rallies should be monitored. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2602 closed at 1717.5 with a - 0.53% change, EC2604 at 1193.9 (- 0.52%), EC2606 at 1442.2 (- 0.37%), EC2608 at 1528.4 (+ 0.29%), and EC2610 at 1112.0 (- 0.20%). [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: EC2502 - 2604 spread was 523.6 (previous day: 526.5, previous two days: 579.4, day - on - day change: - 2.9); EC2504 - 2606 spread was - 248.3 (previous day: - 247.4, previous two days: - 274.6, day - on - day change: - 0.9). [2] - **Indices**: SCFIS (on January 26, 2026) was 1859.31 points, down 4.86% from the previous period; SCFI (on January 23, 2026) was 1676 dollars/TEU, down 4.83% from the previous period. [2] European Line Spot Situation - Week 5: MSK opened at 2450 (down 300 from the previous period), PA at 2400 (special price 2200), OA at 2500 - 2700 dollars, with a central price of 2500 dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures. - Week 6: MSK opened at 2050 (down 400 from the previous period), PA around 2200, MSC at 2340, OA at 2300 - 2400 dollars, with a central price of 2300 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the futures. - On Tuesday, MSK opened at 1950 for February weeks 7 - 9 (down 100 from the previous period), lower than market expectations. [4] Relevant News - On January 28, US President Trump announced a large fleet was heading to the Middle East. The "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group had reached the Indian Ocean and was expected to reach the Arabian Sea in a few days. The US was deploying more transport planes, tankers, and missile defense systems in the region. - On January 28, Iranian officials said they were monitoring the Strait of Hormuz in real - time. An Iranian naval commander said Iran's control of the strait was fully intelligentized. - On January 28, the US was reported to have informed Israel of its preparations for actions against Iran. Preparations were expected to be completed in two weeks, and there might be an "opportunity window" for action in the next few months. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC2602 contract follows the delivery logic with a small deviation. For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush - shipping situations. Spot price drops suppress the futures market, but the potential increase in post - Chinese - New - Year rush shipping may weaken the price decline slope in March. The current valuation of EC2604 fluctuates widely within a reasonable range, and subsequent corrective market conditions are worth noting [3]. - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. It is generally recommended to focus on shorting the EC2610 contract at high levels. Currently, the valuation of EC2610 is neutral with limited downward space [3]. - After the exchange changes the contract rules on February 10, the EC2602 contract will be removed, and new contracts such as EC2605, EC2507, and EC2509 will be added. Seasonally, EC2607 is a peak season contract, while EC2605 and EC2609 are often off - season contracts. Considering geopolitical impacts, a positive spread arbitrage strategy is recommended, and combinations like EC2608 - EC2609 and EC2609 - EC2610 are relatively safe [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Price and Volume Information - The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts are 1710.5, 1121.0, 1311.2, 1465.6, and 1055.1 respectively, with changes of - 0.49%, - 6.79%, - 7.713%, - 3.89%, and - 5.03% [2]. - The trading volumes of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts are 2433, 49713, 4137, 448, and 2150 respectively, and the open interests are 7578, 42632, 3780, 1385, and 7938 respectively, with open - interest changes of - 1300, 1800, 7.32, 64, and 357 respectively [2]. - The month - spreads of EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606 are 589.5 and - 190.2 respectively, with month - on - month changes of 73.2 and 28.9, and week - on - week changes of 122.3 and 14.1 [2]. Spot Market Information - The SCFIS (European route) index on January 12, 2026, is 1956.39 points, with a month - on - month increase of 8.94% and a previous - period increase of 3.05% [2]. - The SCFI (European route) on January 16, 2026, is 1676 dollars/TEU, a decrease of 2.50% compared to the previous period [2]. - In Week 4, the central price of European - route spot shipping is 2630 dollars, equivalent to 1840 points on the futures market. In Week 5, it drops to 2540 dollars, equivalent to 1780 points [4]. Relevant News - On January 19, the US invites 60 countries to join the Gaza Peace Committee, and Trump plans to charge over one billion dollars in membership fees for permanent seats on the committee [5]. - The EU is considering imposing tariffs on US goods worth 93 billion euros or restricting US companies from entering the EU market in response to Trump's decision to impose a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries starting February 1, 2026, and increasing it to 25% from June 1 [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of the futures market has changed little. For the 02 contract, its price mainly depends on the spot market and enters the delivery logic, making it difficult to predict the future price decline rhythm. It is not recommended to enter the market at the current price level [3]. - The valuation of the 04 contract is moderately high, but there is short - term upward risk. The strategy is to go short on rallies [3]. - The far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Based on the long - term logic of resuming navigation and the off - season, the 10 contract should be shorted on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Futures Contract Data - **EC Contracts**: The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 are 1855.5, 1198.0, 1389.0, 1502.3, and 1082.6 respectively, with daily increases of 3.01%, 2.74%, 1.54%, 0.15%, and 2.13% [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606 are 657.5 and - 191.0 respectively, with day - on - day changes of 22.2 and 10.9, and week - on - week changes of - 12.2 and - 29.6 [2]. Spot Index Data - **SCHIS (European Line)**: On January 6, 2025, it was 3387.69 points, a decrease of 3.59% from the previous period [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: On December 26, 2025, it was 1690 dollars/TEU, an increase of 10.24% from the previous period [2]. European Line Spot Situation - **Week 2**: MSK's price remained flat at 2500 dollars, but the opening price at Hamburg Port was 2600 dollars (+100). Some PA routes saw price cuts, while OA routes had price increases. The central price was 2860 dollars, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market [4]. - **Price Increase Notices**: Some shipping companies issued price increase notices for the second half of January. For example, on January 1, MSC announced price increases for 20GP and 40GP containers on the European line to 2400/4000 dollars respectively [4]. - **MSK's Week 3 Opening Price**: It was 2600 dollars, and the price at Hamburg was 2700 dollars (+100) [4]. Geopolitical News - On December 31, 2025, the Israeli military chief of staff stated that the Israeli army would continue to disarm Hamas [4]. - On January 5, 2026, the Israeli army warned residents in southern Lebanon to evacuate as it planned to attack Hamas and Hezbollah military facilities [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the EC2602 contract, the future price depends on the spot market. With high运力 and good demand, it's difficult to predict the peak height and time of the freight rate in January and the subsequent price - decline rhythm. At the current position, it's not recommended to enter the market [3]. - The EC2604 contract has a moderately high valuation, but there is a short - term upward risk. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies [3]. - The far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Under the long - term logic of expected route resumption and off - season, the strategy for the EC2610 contract is to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Contract Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The EC2602 contract closed at 1795.1, down 1.53%; EC2604 at 1160.2, down 0.83%; EC2606 at 1370.0, down 0.29%; EC2608 at 1500.1, up 0.16%; EC2610 at 1056.0, up 0.12% [2]. - **Open Interest Changes**: The open interest of EC2602 decreased by 2582; EC2604 increased by 44; EC2606 decreased by 1249; EC2608 decreased by 10; EC2610 increased by 72 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2502 - 2604 decreased by 18.1 compared to the previous day and 70.1 compared to the previous week; the spread of EC2504 - 2606 decreased by 5.7 compared to the previous day and 56.6 compared to the previous week [2]. Spot Market Data - **Spot Indexes**: The SCEIS SCFI (European Line) increased by 9.66% on December 29, 2025, and 10.24% on December 26, 2025; the CCFI increased by 3.06% on December 26, 2025; the NCFI increased by 7.22% on December 26, 2025 [2]. - **European Line Spot Quotes**: In Week 1, the central price was 1950 US dollars, equivalent to about 1950 points on the futures market; in Week 2, MSK kept the price at 2500 US dollars, with the price at Hamburg Port increasing by 100 to 2600 US dollars; in Week 3, MSK's opening price increased by 100 to 2600 US dollars [4]. Related News - On December 31, Iran's Foreign Minister stated that Iran will not give up peaceful nuclear technology and can reach a fair agreement through serious negotiations with the condition of lifting sanctions; Israel's Prime Minister claimed that Iran is resuming ballistic missile production [5]