短纤：高位震荡，保持关注地缘波动 20260227 瓶片：高位震荡，保持关注地缘波动 20260227 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2604 | ୧୧୧୫ | 6722 | -64 | PF04-05 | -6 | -2 | T | | PF | 短纤2605 | 6664 | 6724 | -60 | PF05-06 | ব | -44 | 48 | | | 短纤2606 | 6660 | 6768 | -108 | PF主力基差 | 2 | -27 | 29 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 136854 | 132676 | 4178 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.660 | 6.695 | -35 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 139057 昨日 | 131047 前日 | 8010 变化 | 短纤产销率 | 46% 昨日 | 51 ...

2026 年 02 月 26 日 短纤：高位震荡，保持关注地缘波动 20260226 瓶片：高位震荡，保持关注地缘波动 20260226 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 短纤趋势强度：0；瓶片趋势强度：0（仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2604 | 6722 | 6790 | -68 | PF04-05 | -2 | 10 | -12 | | PF | 短纤2605 | 6724 | 6780 | -56 | PF05-06 | ব | 174 | -170 | | | 短纤2606 | 6720 | ୧୧୦୧ | 114 | PF主力基 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report Core Views - Before the new OPEC+ policy is introduced in March, the oil market will mainly follow geopolitical fluctuations, and short - term trading is recommended [1] - The economic downward pressure in the US increases, which is bearish for silver. Silver may fluctuate passively following gold, being short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [1] - The short - term downward space of hog prices is limited. It is recommended to wait for stabilization or short - long the far - month contracts [3] - The new US biofuel tax credit policy boosts the sentiment of the oil market. The short - term palm oil price will maintain a high - level oscillation with an upward - shifted price center [3] - In the short term, the steel price may continue to run in a narrow - range oscillation [4] - Affected by supply pressure, the soybean meal price will correct in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious [4] - The silicon iron futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [5] - The iron ore market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the futures price will continue to oscillate in a range in the short term [5] - The methanol market is expected to maintain an oscillating operation in the short term [6] - The bond market may continue to oscillate in the short term [7] - The soda ash market is expected to maintain an oscillating operation in the short term [7] - The PTA market is expected to accumulate inventory significantly, and it is in a short - term transition [8] - The short - term PVC market price is expected to oscillate strongly [8] - The rubber market will operate in a phased oscillation, and short - term trading is recommended [9] - The gold market may experience increased fluctuations in the short term, being short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [9] - The copper price is expected to continue to oscillate and repair in the short term to find a new balance [10] - The aluminum market is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern, waiting for new drivers [10] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - The EIA report shows that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a decrease of 0.82%. US domestic crude oil production decreased by 481,000 barrels to 13.215 million barrels per day on January 30. The resumption and cancellation of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation affected the oil price. Before the new OPEC+ policy in March, the market follows geopolitical fluctuations, and short - term trading is recommended [1] Silver - The US January ISM services PMI index slightly declined to 53.8, better than expected. The economic downward pressure increases, which is bearish for silver. It may follow gold's passive fluctuations, being short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [1] Hog - On February 3, the national wholesale price of pork increased by 0.7% compared with the previous day, and the price of eggs decreased by 1.3%. The national hog price mainly declined yesterday due to increased slaughter and insufficient demand. The short - term downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization or short - long the far - month contracts [3] Palm Oil - From January 1 - 31, 2026, the Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 13.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.16% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 13.08% month - on - month. The new US biofuel tax credit policy boosts the oil market sentiment. The short - term price will maintain a high - level oscillation with an upward - shifted price center [3] Rebar - On February 4, the domestic steel market showed mixed trends. With the cold air moving south and the approaching Spring Festival, the steel market activity decreased. The short - term steel price may continue to oscillate in a narrow range [4] Soybean Meal - On February 4, the domestic soybean meal spot price decreased steadily. The market stocking sentiment is weak, and the supply is abundant. The price will correct in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious [4] Silicon Iron - The starting rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises increased by 0.09% week - on - week, and the daily output increased by 0.14%. The market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [5] Iron Ore - From January 26 to February 1, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased, while that at 45 ports decreased. The overseas shipment increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise. The demand side is weak, and the futures price will continue to oscillate in a range in the short term [5] Methanol - The methanol price in Jiangsu Taicang increased. The port inventory decreased, and the production enterprise inventory also decreased. The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, and the downstream demand decreases. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [6] Long - term Treasury Bond - The central bank requires to strengthen financial services and coordinate monetary and fiscal policies. The bond market may continue to oscillate in the short term [7] Soda Ash - The price of heavy soda ash is stable. The output increased slightly, and the inventory increased. The float glass start - up increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short term [7] PTA - The polyester inventory increased slightly. There may be no new PTA maintenance plans in February. The demand is weak during the Spring Festival, and the market is expected to accumulate inventory significantly. The cost side has high - volatility crude oil [8] PVC - The PVC price increased, the production capacity utilization rate increased, and the social inventory increased. The supply is abundant, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [8] Rubber - The Thai rubber raw material price is stable. The natural rubber export volume in Cote d'Ivoire decreased in January 2026. The domestic rubber inventory increased. The market will operate in a phased oscillation, and short - term trading is recommended [9] Gold - The US January ADP new employment is far lower than expected. The release of non - farm payrolls and CPI data may increase the market volatility. Gold is short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [9] Copper - Chile's official institution raises the 2026 copper price forecast. The supply is tight, and the demand is promising. The short - term price will continue to oscillate and repair [10] Aluminum - The global alumina production shows regional differentiation. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak during the off - season. The market is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For contract 04, pay attention to spot and actual shipping. Before the Spring Festival, falling spot prices suppress the futures market, so shorting on rallies is relatively safe. However, falling freight rates may prompt shipping companies to raise prices and stimulate a post - holiday rush, potentially weakening the decline slope in March. Currently, the valuation of 04 is neutral, with shorting on rallies as the main strategy before the Spring Festival, and geopolitical fluctuations should be noted. - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical fluctuations. It is recommended to operate cautiously, mainly using a positive spread strategy. Currently, the valuation of 10 is moderately high, and opportunities to short 10 on rallies should be monitored. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2602 closed at 1717.5 with a - 0.53% change, EC2604 at 1193.9 (- 0.52%), EC2606 at 1442.2 (- 0.37%), EC2608 at 1528.4 (+ 0.29%), and EC2610 at 1112.0 (- 0.20%). [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: EC2502 - 2604 spread was 523.6 (previous day: 526.5, previous two days: 579.4, day - on - day change: - 2.9); EC2504 - 2606 spread was - 248.3 (previous day: - 247.4, previous two days: - 274.6, day - on - day change: - 0.9). [2] - **Indices**: SCFIS (on January 26, 2026) was 1859.31 points, down 4.86% from the previous period; SCFI (on January 23, 2026) was 1676 dollars/TEU, down 4.83% from the previous period. [2] European Line Spot Situation - Week 5: MSK opened at 2450 (down 300 from the previous period), PA at 2400 (special price 2200), OA at 2500 - 2700 dollars, with a central price of 2500 dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures. - Week 6: MSK opened at 2050 (down 400 from the previous period), PA around 2200, MSC at 2340, OA at 2300 - 2400 dollars, with a central price of 2300 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the futures. - On Tuesday, MSK opened at 1950 for February weeks 7 - 9 (down 100 from the previous period), lower than market expectations. [4] Relevant News - On January 28, US President Trump announced a large fleet was heading to the Middle East. The "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group had reached the Indian Ocean and was expected to reach the Arabian Sea in a few days. The US was deploying more transport planes, tankers, and missile defense systems in the region. - On January 28, Iranian officials said they were monitoring the Strait of Hormuz in real - time. An Iranian naval commander said Iran's control of the strait was fully intelligentized. - On January 28, the US was reported to have informed Israel of its preparations for actions against Iran. Preparations were expected to be completed in two weeks, and there might be an "opportunity window" for action in the next few months. [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities and financial instruments, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price outlooks for each category, suggesting trading strategies based on the analysis. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent 11 contract up 1.34%. The oil market is sensitive to geopolitical events. After Q3, due to OPEC+ production increase and weaker demand, there is a risk of inventory build - up. Consider shorting SC11 contract above 495 yuan/barrel with protective options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and China's ship - fuel sales declined, but domestic refinery production was also low. With crude oil's geopolitical premium and delayed LU supply pressure, both LU and FU strengthened [22]. - **Asphalt**: In the traditional peak season, demand is increasing seasonally, and inventories are decreasing. The 10 - contract is supported at 3500 yuan/ton and is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term. Consider a spread strategy on BU and SC10 [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the off - season, it shows resilience. With rising import costs and rebounding demand, the spot price is up. The high - basis situation persists, and the short - term market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, the US manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, increasing the Fed's rate - cut expectation and boosting precious metals. Hold long positions and focus on US employment data [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices broke through key levels. Short - term prices are affected by the Fed's rate cut, consumption substitution, and capital resonance. Hold short - term long positions and pay attention to call - option premiums [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum was strongly oscillating. Downstream开工率 has been rising seasonally, and inventory is likely to remain low. It will test the resistance at 21000 yuan in the short - term [5]. - **Alumina**: Production capacity is at a historical high, and supply surplus is emerging. The price is weak but may not fall deeply below the high - cost capacity. Watch the support at 2830 - 3000 yuan [6]. - **Zinc**: In September, refinery maintenance will reduce output, and low inventory will drive a short - term rebound. However, the mid - term outlook is bearish, and consider shorting at 2.3 - 2.35 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Due to political unrest in Indonesia, nickel prices rebounded. With inventory declines, the short - term market is oscillating instead of bearish [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin recovered some losses. There is a shortage of concentrates, but watch inventory and capital changes. Hold short - term long positions above 27.1 million [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price declined, and the market was quiet. Inventory changes were mixed. The market is oscillating [12]. - **Polysilicon**: It oscillated below 52,000 yuan/ton. The spot price rose, but actual trading needs attention. The PS2511 price is expected to face pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price rose slightly. Supply surplus will intensify in September, and the price may fall after the short - term rally. Watch the support at 8300 yuan/ton [14]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices rebounded. Rebar demand and production increased, while hot - rolled coil's decreased. Inventory is rising. The market is under pressure, and the decline may slow down. Watch the demand improvement and production restrictions [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight iron ore price rebounded. Global shipments increased, and domestic arrivals also rose. Demand may decline due to the parade. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [16]. - **Coke**: The price oscillated widely. The first round of price cuts was partially implemented, and inventory decreased slightly. The price is under short - term pressure and is highly volatile [17]. - **Coking Coal**: Similar to coke, the price oscillated widely. Production increased slightly, and inventory decreased. It is under short - term pressure and volatile [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. Manganese ore prices may have limited downside. Observe the support at the previous low [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is rising, and demand is fair. Inventory is slightly decreasing [20]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: MSC announced empty - sailing plans for the Golden Week. The spot price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited. The market is expected to oscillate and be affected by other alliances' plans [21]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The futures price oscillated. Daily production decreased slightly, and inventory increased. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. - **Methanol**: Coastal available supply is abundant, and inventory is rising. However, with downstream demand expected to increase, the market outlook is optimistic [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price rebounded. Supply increased, and demand was weak. The market may improve in Q3. Watch downstream demand and oil prices [27]. - **Styrene**: Crude oil and pure benzene cannot support styrene effectively. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is rising [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene production inventory is controllable, but downstream acceptance is limited. Polyethylene demand is mixed, and polypropylene supply pressure is increasing [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory is rising. It may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda is supported by demand but may face supply pressure later, with a wide - range oscillation expected [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Prices oscillated at a low level. Demand is improving, but the actual supply - demand situation has limited improvement. Watch device operations, oil prices, and polyester load [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price oscillated around 4350 yuan/ton. Supply increased, and demand was stable but weakening. Watch new capacity and policy changes [32]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber supply - demand is stable, and it may be bullish in the medium - term if demand improves. Bottle - chip has over - capacity issues [33]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Due to Sino - US trade uncertainties, the soybean meal market may oscillate in the short - term. It may be bullish in the medium - to long - term, but pay attention to supply in Q1 next year [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Prices rebounded after a short - term decline. Consider buying at low prices in the long - term, but manage risks [38]. - **Soybean (Domestic)**: The price rebounded as short - positions were reduced. Policy auctions increased supply, and new beans will be on the market soon. Watch the new - bean price [39]. - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures were weak. Feed companies may build inventory at 2150 yuan/ton. After the new - grain purchase enthusiasm fades, the price may be weak at the bottom [40]. - **Pig**: Spot prices were mixed, and futures prices were weak. Supply may increase in September, but demand may also rise during holidays. Prices may face downward pressure [41]. - **Egg**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices rebounded. The industry is in capacity reduction, and consider long - positions in far - term contracts [42]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell due to better weather. Chinese cotton may oscillate, with support below and limited upside in the short - term. Consider buying on dips [43]. - **Sugar**: US sugar may face pressure, and the domestic market has limited upside. The price is expected to oscillate [44]. - **Apple**: The price oscillated at a high level. Early - maturing apples had high prices, but supply may be stable. Short - term price may rise, but be cautious in the long - term [45]. - **Wood**: The price oscillated. Supply may remain low, and inventory pressure is small. Wait and see for now [46]. - **Pulp**: The futures price rose slightly. Supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. Adopt a wait - and - see or range - trading strategy [47]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: The stock market oscillated, and futures contracts showed different trends. There are short - term macro uncertainties. Increase allocation in technology - growth sectors and also consider consumption and cyclical sectors [48]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures oscillated flat. US employment data and Fed's stance affect the market. Consider curve - steepening strategies in short - term hedging [49].