Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 172 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.06%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 24 million yuan, widening the loss by 8.67% year-on-year [7] - The company is facing short-term performance pressure due to overall cost reduction in the industry and intensified competition, with a significant increase in losses in the second quarter of 2025 [7] - The company is actively improving its product structure and has opportunities for growth in the copper foil business driven by AI [7] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 22 million, 79 million, and 169 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.27, 0.98, and 2.09 yuan [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 345 million yuan, with a growth rate of 10.4%, and is expected to reach 1,017 million yuan by 2027, with a growth rate of 24.7% [6][8] - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025 with a forecast of 22 million yuan, and is projected to grow significantly to 169 million yuan by 2027 [6][8] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 28.2% in 2023 to 46.0% in 2027 [8] Business Segment Analysis - The shielding film business saw a 6.65% increase in sales volume, but revenue slightly declined due to intensified competition [7] - The copper foil business reported a revenue of 38.32 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a significant growth in RTF copper foil shipments, which increased by 21 times [7] - The FCCL segment experienced a substantial increase of 372% in self-made copper foil FCCL, although it has not yet achieved scale effects [7]

Core Viewpoint - Foster's profitability in the photovoltaic film segment is under pressure, but its competitive advantages may help it navigate through the cycle smoothly [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.959 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.06%, and a net profit of 496 million yuan, down 46.60% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 4.334 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.36% year-on-year but an increase of 19.58% quarter-on-quarter; net profit was 95 million yuan, down 76.75% year-on-year and 76.41% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Photovoltaic Film Segment - In H1 2025, the company sold 1.386 billion square meters of photovoltaic film, maintaining sales volume year-on-year, but revenue fell to 7.215 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.97% [2]. - The sales volume of photovoltaic backsheet was 33.6994 million square meters, down 50.28% year-on-year, with revenue of 175 million yuan, a decline of 57.78% [2]. - The company aims to enhance R&D investment and expand overseas production capacity to meet high demand in emerging markets [2]. Electronic Materials Segment - The electronic materials division saw significant growth, with sales of photosensitive dry film reaching 89.5948 million square meters, up 21.62% year-on-year, generating revenue of 325 million yuan, an increase of 17.93% [3]. - The aluminum-plastic film sales volume was 6.6584 million square meters, up 18.77% year-on-year, with revenue of 64.4174 million yuan, a growth of 9.37% [3]. Investment Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 17.585 billion yuan, 20.152 billion yuan, and 23.163 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of -8.2%, 14.6%, and 14.9% [4]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.323 billion yuan, 1.836 billion yuan, and 2.339 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1.2%, 38.8%, and 27.4% [4]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the photovoltaic film market, expected to navigate the industry cycle effectively [4].

Core Viewpoint - Foster, a leading photovoltaic film manufacturer, is facing significant challenges due to a planned share reduction by its shareholder, Tongde Industrial, and a substantial decline in expected profits for the first half of 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Tongde Industrial plans to reduce its holdings by up to 32.52 million shares, representing 1.25% of Foster's total share capital, with a cash-out amounting to approximately 470 million yuan based on the closing price of 14.5 yuan per share [2]. - The reduction window is set from August 11 to November 10, raising concerns among investors about Foster's market outlook during a sensitive period following the profit warning [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Foster anticipates a net profit of 473 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decline of 49.05% year-on-year, marking the worst semi-annual performance since 2021 [2]. - The company's gross profit margin has significantly decreased, with a 46.72% drop in gross profit due to falling prices of photovoltaic film products, which have decreased more than the raw material costs [3]. Group 3: Industry Context - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a severe restructuring, with domestic production capacities for key components exceeding 1100 GW, while global demand is only expected to reach 600 GW in 2025 [4]. - The oversupply has led to a drastic price drop, with polysilicon prices falling by 39% and module prices dropping below the industry cost line [4]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - In response to declining performance and shareholder actions, Foster is accelerating the development of high-value-added products like POE films to combat homogenization in the market [4]. - The company is expanding its global production capacity, with projects in Thailand and Vietnam expected to increase overseas output to 600 million square meters, enhancing its market presence and mitigating trade barriers [5]. - Foster's photolithographic dry film business is targeting high-end applications, with a market potential exceeding 20 billion yuan, and is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 30% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 3.624 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.89% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.78%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 401 million yuan, down 23.08% year-on-year but up 709.79% quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin was 13.10%, a decrease of 2.18 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 1.48 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company maintains a leading position in the film business, with a market share exceeding 50% in Q1 2025. The gross margin for this segment reached 13.1%, showing a recovery in profitability due to increased demand and price adjustments [7]. - The electronic materials business is expected to see growth, with significant shipments of photosensitive dry film and other products. The company has established relationships with major players in the electronic circuit field, indicating a positive outlook for this segment [7]. - The company has effectively managed credit risks, with a total of 136 million yuan in credit impairment provisions being reversed, contributing positively to the financial performance [7]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 21.297 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.680 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 28.5% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 0.50 yuan in 2024 to 0.64 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 times for 2025 [3]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 16.10 yuan, based on a P/E ratio of 25 times for 2025, compared to the current price of 12.29 yuan [3].