Investment Rating - The report suggests that the domestic HNB (Heated Not Burned) industry is on the verge of significant growth, driven by international tobacco giants shifting towards new tobacco products [5]. Core Insights - The global cigarette market is experiencing an irreversible decline, with smoking rates dropping from 30.75% in 2005 to 21.74% in 2022, and cigarette market size decreasing from 53,908 billion sticks in 2018 to an estimated 51,561 billion sticks in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of -0.74% [1][13]. - Major tobacco companies, including Philip Morris International (PMI), are focusing on new tobacco products as a core growth driver, with PMI planning for over two-thirds of its revenue to come from new tobacco products by 2030 [1][20]. - The Japanese market serves as a reference point, showing that the rapid penetration of heated tobacco products has not negatively impacted tax revenues, with the market size growing from 37.28 billion sticks in 2019 to 64.50 billion sticks in 2024, a CAGR of 11.59% [2][51]. Summary by Sections Section 1: HNB as a Core Development Category - International tobacco giants are increasingly focusing on new tobacco products as a long-term performance core, with significant contributions to profitability [1.1]. - The global market for heated tobacco and electronic cigarettes is projected to grow, with sales expected to reach $38.85 billion and $23.04 billion respectively by 2024, reflecting growth rates of 12.7% and 9.5% [1.1][13]. Section 2: Domestic Tobacco Industry Challenges - The traditional cigarette market in China is under pressure, with production increasing from 23,642 billion sticks in 2019 to 24,655 billion sticks in 2024, but at a slowing growth rate [3][55]. - The inventory levels in the tobacco industry have risen significantly, from 150 billion yuan in 2010 to approximately 4,394 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a high stock level [3][56]. Section 3: Regulatory Framework for HNB - The regulatory landscape for heated tobacco products is becoming clearer globally, with established frameworks in the US, Japan, and Europe, providing a roadmap for compliance [4][62]. - The US has implemented a structured regulatory process for HNB products, which includes pre-market tobacco application (PMTA) requirements, ensuring a predictable compliance environment [4][66]. Section 4: Domestic Product Development and Market Readiness - Chinese tobacco companies have made significant strides in developing HNB products, with several companies launching domestic HNB devices and achieving a substantial number of patents in the field [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and international expansion for the high-quality development of the domestic tobacco industry [3][5]. Section 5: Company Analysis - Companies like Huabao International and Smoore International are highlighted for their strong technical reserves and potential for growth in the HNB sector, with Huabao expected to benefit from its leading position in the flavoring segment [5][5.1][5.2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, indicating a potential increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index [4][9]. Core Insights - The rise of the "Reward Economy" signifies a new consumption paradigm, driven by consumers seeking non-essential goods or experiential services to achieve immediate pleasure and psychological relief amidst work and life pressures [2][4]. - The "Reward Economy" reflects a significant shift in consumer decision-making logic, where spending is not solely based on functional needs but also on self-care and emotional fulfillment, showcasing a blend of rational and emotional spending behaviors [4]. - Recent developments driving the "Reward Economy" include endorsements from state media recognizing its value and innovative product launches by cultural and creative companies that attract market attention [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Key industry-related stocks include Shifeng Culture, Guangbo Co., Deyi Culture, and Chuangyuan Co. [4]. Market Trends - The "Reward Economy" is emerging as a new engine for domestic demand and consumption expansion, particularly among younger demographics [4]. - The report highlights that the "Reward Economy" is distinct from the traditional "lipstick effect," emphasizing proactive consumer behavior rather than reactive spending during economic downturns [4]. Recent Developments - Notable events include the collaboration between Chuangyuan Co. and major brands for product launches, and Shifeng Culture's focus on technological innovation in the toy industry, aiming for high-end and intelligent product development [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the electronic cigarette industry, indicating a potential increase in value relative to the market index [4]. Core Insights - The electronic cigarette industry is entering a new product life and regulatory enforcement cycle, with major brands actively engaging in market cultivation, leading to accelerated industry expansion [2][4]. - The Chinese government has issued strict regulations to combat illegal activities related to electronic cigarettes, which is expected to expedite the exit of non-compliant production capacity from the market [4]. - The report highlights that leading compliant manufacturers, such as Smoore International, are likely to benefit from the tightening regulations [4]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - The State Council has emphasized comprehensive regulation of electronic cigarettes, including strict measures against illegal production, wholesale, transportation, and sales [4]. - The focus is on international cooperation to tackle non-compliant electronic cigarette exports, which will help clear out the industry [4]. Market Dynamics - Smoore International is expected to see improvements in its aerosol business due to changes in regulatory environments in the US and Europe, with a potential recovery in 2026 [4]. - British American Tobacco anticipates a single-digit decline in its aerosol business in the second half of 2025, a significant improvement compared to a 13% decline in the first half of 2025 [4]. Financial Projections - Smoore International's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.17 RMB for 2025, increasing to 0.41 RMB by 2027, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 67 in 2025 to 28 in 2027 [5]. - British American Tobacco's EPS is forecasted to rise from 2.83 GBP in 2025 to 3.09 GBP in 2027, maintaining a stable PE ratio of 15 [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that British American Tobacco (BTI.US) is expected to see accelerated growth in its new tobacco business in the second half of 2025, benefiting from a favorable industry environment and product lifecycle expansion [1] - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) segment is showing positive feedback for new products, with a goal for global expansion in 2026, despite a slight decline in market share for the Glo brand in 2025 due to competition [1] - The Glo Hilo product has achieved a 1% market share in Japan and is gaining traction in Poland and Italy, with expectations for stabilization and recovery in market share by 2026 [1] Group 2 - The vaping segment continues to benefit from an improved market environment, with a projected revenue increase in the second half of 2025, following a 13% year-on-year decline in the first half [2] - The Vuse brand has seen a 0.1 percentage point increase in market share, particularly in the U.S. where it rose by 0.7 percentage points, despite some growth being impacted by illegal vaping products in Canada [2] - The new oral tobacco product Velo Plus is expected to drive significant growth in the U.S. market, with a projected increase in market share by 9.2 percentage points to 15.6% and a global market share increase of 5.9 percentage points to 31.8% [2] Group 3 - Traditional cigarette operations remain stable, with a slight decline in market share of 0.1 percentage points, but a positive outlook for the second half of 2025 driven by improved conditions in the U.S. market [3] - The company anticipates a revenue and adjusted operating profit growth of approximately 2% for the fiscal year 2025, with accelerated growth in new tobacco revenue expected to achieve double-digit growth in the second half [3] - The company plans to increase its share buyback program to £1.3 billion in 2026, up from £1.1 billion in 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the new tobacco sector [4]. Core Insights - The new tobacco business of British American Tobacco is expected to accelerate growth in the second half of 2025, benefiting from a favorable industry environment [2]. - The global HNB (Heated Not Burned) industry is entering a new product lifecycle, with major brands actively engaging in market cultivation, leading to accelerated industry expansion [4]. - The Glo brand's market share is projected to stabilize and recover in 2026, primarily driven by the Glo Hilo product [4]. Summary by Sections HNB Market Performance - The Glo Hilo product has received positive feedback, with a market share of 1% in Japan and faster acquisition of market share in Poland and Italy [4]. - The overall revenue growth for 2025 is expected to be steady, influenced by competitive activities and resource reallocation [4]. E-Cigarette and New Products - The vaping market is benefiting from an improved market environment, with the Vuse brand gaining a 0.1 percentage point increase in market share, particularly in the U.S. where it rose by 0.7 percentage points [4]. - The Velo Plus product is driving significant growth in the U.S. market, achieving a 9.2 percentage point increase in market share to 15.6% [4]. Traditional Cigarette Business - The traditional cigarette business remains stable, with a slight decline in market share of 0.1 percentage points globally, but a 0.2 percentage point increase in the U.S. [4]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth of approximately 2% for the fiscal year 2025, with new tobacco revenue accelerating and expected to achieve double-digit growth in the second half of 2025 [4].

本文源自：智通财经网 消息面上，国金证券近日研报指出，英美烟草宣布日本hilo/hilo Plus器具+5包烟弹免费试用14天，波兰1 兹罗提即可购买hilo器具+2包烟弹，79兹罗提即可购买hilo plus和2包烟弹，促销力度显著加大。HNB行 业竞争日益激烈，Hilo凭借优秀的产品力与完备的营销渠道建设，有望持续放量。思摩尔作为BAT在雾 化及加热烟草领域的核心供应商，双方合作力度不断加深，思摩尔有望在BAT加速推进无烟战略中充分 受益。 智通财经获悉，思摩尔国际(06969)反弹近7%，该股昨日一度跌超8%。截至发稿，涨6.84%，报12.18港 元，成交额3.15亿港元。 ...

Group 1 - The stock of Smoore International (06969) rebounded nearly 7% after experiencing a drop of over 8% previously, currently trading at HKD 12.18 with a transaction volume of HKD 315 million [1] - Guotai Junan Securities recently reported that British American Tobacco (BAT) has announced a promotional campaign for its Hilo/Hilo Plus devices, offering a 14-day free trial with significant discounts in Poland, indicating an increase in promotional efforts [1] - The heated tobacco (HNB) industry is becoming increasingly competitive, with Hilo expected to continue gaining market share due to its strong product capabilities and comprehensive marketing channel development [1] Group 2 - Smoore, as a core supplier for BAT in the vaping and heated tobacco sector, is likely to benefit significantly from the deepening collaboration as BAT accelerates its smoke-free strategy [1]

Core Viewpoint - China is the largest traditional tobacco market globally, while the US leads in the new tobacco market, with Japan and South Korea also holding significant shares in the new tobacco sector [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The traditional tobacco market is gradually shrinking, while the new tobacco market is experiencing rapid growth. In 2020, the market size of heated not-burn (HNB) products surpassed that of electronic cigarettes, establishing itself as the new leader in the new tobacco sector [2] - The US market currently leads in vaporized electronic cigarettes but has a significant gap in the HNB market. The resolution between PMI and BAT is expected to accelerate the development of the HNB market [3] - The regulatory environment in Europe is tightening for vaporized products while remaining stable for HNB, which may allow HNB to gradually capture a larger market share [3] Group 2: Product Landscape - The transition from traditional cigarettes to new tobacco products is driven by a dual focus on flavor and health, with new tobacco products offering significant harm reduction advantages and more diverse taste options [2] - Major multinational tobacco companies are actively investing in new tobacco products, which is likely to increase the penetration rate of these products in the market [2] Group 3: Compliance and Regulation - The structure of tobacco products and their acceptance in different countries is largely determined by national policies and regulations. Taxation influences the differing policy attitudes towards traditional and new tobacco products, while health concerns shape the regulatory stance on various new tobacco products [4] - Strict regulations and weak enforcement may lead to unintended consequences, such as the growth of the illegal electronic cigarette market [4] Group 4: Brand Landscape - The traditional tobacco market is highly concentrated, dominated by brands like Marlboro, Winston, and Camel. In the new tobacco sector, PMI and BAT hold leading market shares, but changes in policy and company strategies may alter the brand landscape [5] Group 5: Industry Chain - The tobacco supply chain includes essential materials for both cigarette and electronic cigarette production, such as cigarette labels, rolling paper, and electronic cigarette components like lithium batteries and control chips. Key listed companies in this supply chain include Jinjia Co., Dongfeng Co., and others [8]

Core Viewpoint - Huachuang Securities maintains a "strong buy" rating for Smoore International (06969) with a target price of HKD 21.90, highlighting the company's leading position in the global electronic vaporization market and potential for growth in both e-cigarette and HNB (Heated Not Burned) businesses [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of CNY 10.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, while net profit was CNY 809 million, a decrease of 23.8%. Adjusted net profit was CNY 1.182 billion, a slight increase of 0.1% [1] - For Q3 alone, the company reported revenue of CNY 4.197 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, and net profit of CNY 317 million, down 16.4%. Adjusted net profit for the quarter was CNY 444 million, up 4.0% year-on-year [1] Group 2: HNB Product Growth - The market feedback for HNB products is positive, with significant increases in product shipments contributing to impressive revenue growth. The Glo Hilo product has received praise for its stylish design and flavor delivery compared to IQOS [2] - As Glo Hilo expands in the European market, the product penetration rate is expected to accelerate [2] Group 3: E-Cigarette Business and Regulatory Environment - The company benefits from stricter regulations on non-compliant products globally, with a recent poll indicating that 80% of U.S. voters support increased enforcement against illegal e-cigarettes, which may help the company's business recovery [3] - The company's own brand performance remains strong due to the launch of flagship new products and enhanced localized operations [3] Group 4: Profitability and Cost Management - The adjusted net profit margin for Q3 was approximately 10.6%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the product mix with a higher proportion of lower-margin HNB products in early sales [4] - The company has seen steady improvement in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, which is expected to enhance profit flexibility in the future [4]

Core Viewpoint - Huachuang Securities maintains a "strong buy" rating for Smoore International (06969) with a target price of HKD 21.90, highlighting the company's leading position in the global electronic vaporization market and potential for growth in both e-cigarette and HNB (Heated Not Burned) segments [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 10.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, while net profit was CNY 809 million, a decrease of 23.8%. Adjusted net profit stood at CNY 1.18 billion, a slight increase of 0.1% [1] - For Q3 alone, revenue reached CNY 4.197 billion, up 27.2% year-on-year, with net profit at CNY 317 million, down 16.4%. Adjusted net profit for the quarter was CNY 444 million, reflecting a 4.0% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: HNB Product Growth - The market feedback for HNB products has been positive, with significant increases in product shipments contributing to impressive revenue growth. The Glo Hilo product has received favorable comparisons to IQOS, particularly for its design and flavor delivery [2] - As Glo Hilo expands in the European market, the product penetration rate is expected to accelerate [2] Group 3: Vaporization Business and Regulatory Environment - The vaporization business is benefiting from stricter regulations on non-compliant products globally, with a recent survey indicating that 80% of U.S. voters support enhanced enforcement against illegal e-cigarettes, which may help the company's business recovery [3] - The company's own brand performance has shown steady growth, aided by the launch of flagship products and enhanced local operations [3] Group 4: Profitability and Cost Management - The adjusted net profit margin for Q3 2025 was approximately 10.6%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the product mix with a higher proportion of lower-margin HNB devices in early sales [4] - The company has seen steady improvements in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, which are expected to enhance profit flexibility in the future [4]