手机品牌即便在淡季对存储器需求不强，然因Mobile DRAM供给紧缩情况难在短期内改善，且未来数季合约价可能再升高，品牌于第一季维持较强拉货 力道。预计LPDDR4X、LPDDR5X皆呈现供不应求、资源分配不均情况，价格走强。 根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新调查，2026年第一季由于DRAM原厂大规模转移先进制程、新产能至Server、HBM应用，以满足AI Server需求，导致其他市 场供给严重紧缩，预估整体一般型DRAM(Conventional DRAM)合约价将季增55-60%。NAND Flash则因原厂控管产能，和Server强劲拉货排挤其他应用， 预计各类产品合约价持续上涨33-38%。 | | 4Q25 | 1Q26E | | --- | --- | --- | | Total DRAM | Conventional DRAM: up 45~50% HBM Blended: up 50~55% | Conventional DRAM: up 55~60% HBM Blended: up 50~55% | | Total NAND Flash | up 33~38% | up 33~3 ...

Core Insights - The global storage industry is undergoing a significant transformation driven by the large-scale application of AI technology, leading to unprecedented demand and structural shortages in the market, with DRAM market value expected to exceed $300 billion by 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The AI and server markets are driving a new super cycle in memory demand, with AI-related applications projected to account for 46%, 56%, and 66% of DRAM capacity from 2024 to 2026 [2] - High-end AI server manufacturers, such as NVIDIA, are willing to pay a premium of 50%-60% over mobile manufacturers for LPDDR5, leading to a prioritization of production capacity for AI clients [3] - The transition from LPDDR4 to LPDDR5 is accelerating due to rapid supply reductions of LPDDR4, with over 70% of LPDDR production expected to be LPDDR5 by 2026 [4] Group 2: Impact on Consumer Electronics - The surge in memory prices is causing significant cost pressures on smartphone manufacturers, leading to inevitable price increases for smartphones in 2026, with potential reductions in memory capacity for some models [5] - The notebook market is also under pressure, with growth forecasts revised down from 2% to -3% for 2026 due to rising memory costs [5] - Reports indicate that some smartphone manufacturers have paused storage procurement due to soaring prices, with current inventory levels below healthy thresholds [6] Group 3: Strategic Shifts - The storage market is being viewed as a "strategic material" rather than a regular procurement item, necessitating closer collaboration between manufacturers and suppliers [8] - Companies are expected to adapt their product structures, with a shift towards higher-end products as a response to rising storage prices [9] - The storage module company, Shichuangyi, anticipates a doubling of revenue to over 4 billion yuan by 2025, benefiting from the current market dynamics [9]

Group 1 - The global AI Server shipment is expected to grow by over 20% annually by 2026, driven by steady demand from cloud service providers (CSP) and sovereign cloud, with AI applications flourishing [1] - In 2025, AI Server shipment growth rate has been slightly revised down to around 24% due to delays in NVIDIA's GB300 and B300, while the market value is projected to grow nearly 48% due to high-value integrated AI solutions [3] - By 2026, AI Server revenue is anticipated to increase by over 30% compared to 2025, with revenue accounting for 74% of the overall server market [3] Group 2 - HBM consumption is projected to grow by over 70% annually in 2026, driven by high demand for AI chips and increasing HBM capacity in individual chips [4] - HBM demand is expected to increase by over 130% in 2025, with significant contributions from new products like B300, GB300, and advancements in HBM3e technology [4] - HBM3e sales price is anticipated to rise by 5-10% in 2025 due to strong demand, but may face downward pressure in 2026 as competition among suppliers intensifies [4][5] Group 3 - HBM4 is entering the sampling phase, with expectations for higher sales prices in 2026 compared to HBM3e, providing suppliers with significant profit margins [5] - If all three major suppliers complete validation next year, there may be renewed negotiations on pricing between buyers and sellers [5]

Core Viewpoint - The DRAM market is experiencing price increases due to supply constraints and shifting demand towards high-end applications, particularly Server DRAM and HBM, while traditional PC and mobile applications face reduced capacity allocation [1][3]. DRAM Price Trends - Overall Conventional DRAM prices are expected to increase by 8-13% in Q4, with HBM blended prices rising by 13-18% [1][2]. - PC DRAM prices are anticipated to rise slightly due to limited supply as major OEMs reduce procurement volumes [3]. - Server DRAM demand is expected to grow significantly, with U.S. CSPs planning to start procurement earlier to secure supply, leading to price increases [3]. Mobile and Graphics DRAM - Mobile DRAM prices, particularly LPDDR4X, are projected to increase by over 10% in Q4 due to supply constraints and inventory buildup by manufacturers [4]. - Graphics DRAM demand remains strong, with GDDR7 prices expected to rise more than in the previous quarter due to anticipated supply shortages [4]. Consumer DRAM - Consumer DDR4 supply is limited, and despite previous price increases, demand has softened, leading to a forecasted moderation in price growth for Q4 [5]. - DDR3 prices are expected to continue rising due to preemptive stocking and supply constraints [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated price increases in the DRAM market due to shifts in production capacity and demand dynamics, particularly focusing on DDR4 and DDR5 products, as well as the impact of EOL (End of Life) policies on supply and pricing trends [3][4][5]. Group 1: DRAM Market Dynamics - Major DRAM manufacturers are shifting production towards high-end products, leading to a projected price increase of 10% to 15% for conventional DRAM in Q3 2025, with an overall increase of 15% to 20% when including HBM [3]. - Demand for DDR4 remains strong, with expectations of a price increase of 40% to 45% for consumer DDR4 in Q3 due to limited supply and prioritization of server applications [3][4]. - The supply of PC DDR4 is constrained by manufacturers' EOL policies and increased demand from cloud service providers, leading to a forecasted price increase of 8% to 13% for PC DRAM in Q3 [4][5]. Group 2: Server and Graphics DRAM Trends - The server DRAM market is experiencing increased demand driven by data center construction and AI server deployments, with price increases expected to be between 3% and 8% in Q3 [5]. - The graphics DRAM segment is seeing strong demand from NVIDIA's new generation graphics cards, with GDDR6 experiencing significant price increases due to supply constraints, while manufacturers are transitioning to GDDR7 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated trends in the DRAM market for Q1 and Q2 of 2025, highlighting price adjustments and supply chain dynamics influenced by international conditions and demand shifts across various sectors [1][4][5]. Summary by Sections DRAM Price Trends - In Q1 2025, prices for various DRAM types are expected to decline significantly, with Conventional DRAM projected to drop by 8% to 13%. For Q2 2025, the decline is expected to narrow to 0% to 5% for Conventional DRAM, while HBM prices are anticipated to increase by 3% to 8% due to the ramp-up of HBM3e 12hi [2][4]. Supply Chain Dynamics - Major PC OEMs are increasing assembly volumes to reduce DRAM inventory levels. This is expected to lead to higher procurement from DRAM manufacturers in Q2 2025, particularly for those with low inventory levels [4][5]. - Samsung's HBM product certification is lagging, while SK hynix is focusing on Server and Mobile DRAM production, limiting the supply of PC DDR5 [4][5]. Mobile and Graphics DRAM - Mobile DRAM prices are expected to stabilize or increase slightly due to rising demand from high-end smartphones and other sectors. LPDDR5X is projected to see a price increase of 0% to 5%, while LPDDR4X may decline by 0% to 5% [6][7]. - Graphics DRAM demand is shifting towards GDDR7, with GDDR6 prices expected to decline by 3% to 8% due to increased demand from new models [6][7]. Consumer DRAM Outlook - The demand for Consumer DRAM is expected to gradually increase due to new projects like 4G/5G base station expansions. DDR4 prices are projected to rise by 0% to 5% in Q2 2025, while DDR3 prices are expected to remain stable [7].