Core Insights - The DRAM supply chain is facing significant challenges, particularly in the server memory segment, with major hyperscale vendors in the US and China receiving only 70% of their ordered server DRAM [2] - Demand for traditional DDR5 RDIMM is exceeding supply, driven by a shift in production capacity towards AI-related advanced nodes by major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix [2][3] - The market is experiencing a surge in spot prices, with DDR5 16 GB modules rising from $7-$8 to around $13 since late September, indicating a tightening supply situation [2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Order fulfillment rates for channel vendors and smaller OEMs are low, around 35%-40%, as larger hyperscale companies secure fixed allocations, forcing smaller clients to the spot market or to wait until 2026 for capacity [3] - Micron has warned that DRAM is a "supply-constrained industry," with supply growth lagging behind demand expected to continue into next year [3] - TrendForce indicates that DDR4 prices are slowly declining, but the overall DRAM market is expected to see price increases of 13%-18% in Q4 [6][7] Price Trends - Recent price hikes in the DRAM market have reached up to 30%, with some manufacturers pausing quotes for certain DRAM and NAND flash products due to pricing pressures [5][6] - Kingston's DDR4 desktop memory module prices have more than doubled since March, reflecting the broader trend of rising memory prices [6] - TrendForce predicts that the shortage of DDR4 will persist until mid-2026, with overall DRAM prices expected to rise by 13%-18% in Q4 [6][7] Future Outlook - The price surge is driven by two main factors: the announcement of DDR4 discontinuation and stockpiling due to US-China tariff tensions [7] - The demand for DDR5 RDIMM, LPDDR5X, and HBM is expected to increase significantly as North American data centers accelerate AI server investments [9][10] - Despite efforts to adjust production capacity, uncertainties remain regarding supply stability for DDR5 due to technical issues and prioritization of HBM4 production [10]

Core Viewpoint - Dongxin Co., Ltd. is engaged in the research, design, and sales of small-capacity NAND Flash, NOR Flash, and DRAM products, and currently does not produce GDDR6 products used in the 7G100 series by Lishuan Technology [2] Company Summary - Dongxin Co., Ltd. specializes in small-capacity NAND Flash, NOR Flash, and DRAM product development and sales [2] - The company confirmed that it does not manufacture GDDR6 products for the 7G100 series utilized by Lishuan Technology [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dongxin Co., Ltd. (688110.SH) is engaged in the research, design, and sales of small to medium capacity NAND Flash, NOR Flash, and DRAM products, and currently does not produce GDDR6 products used in the 7G100 series by Lishuan Technology [1] Group 1 - The company specializes in NAND Flash, NOR Flash, and DRAM products [1] - The company does not have production capabilities for GDDR6 products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The DRAM market is experiencing price increases due to supply constraints and shifting demand towards high-end applications, particularly Server DRAM and HBM, while traditional PC and mobile applications face reduced capacity allocation [1][3]. DRAM Price Trends - Overall Conventional DRAM prices are expected to increase by 8-13% in Q4, with HBM blended prices rising by 13-18% [1][2]. - PC DRAM prices are anticipated to rise slightly due to limited supply as major OEMs reduce procurement volumes [3]. - Server DRAM demand is expected to grow significantly, with U.S. CSPs planning to start procurement earlier to secure supply, leading to price increases [3]. Mobile and Graphics DRAM - Mobile DRAM prices, particularly LPDDR4X, are projected to increase by over 10% in Q4 due to supply constraints and inventory buildup by manufacturers [4]. - Graphics DRAM demand remains strong, with GDDR7 prices expected to rise more than in the previous quarter due to anticipated supply shortages [4]. Consumer DRAM - Consumer DDR4 supply is limited, and despite previous price increases, demand has softened, leading to a forecasted moderation in price growth for Q4 [5]. - DDR3 prices are expected to continue rising due to preemptive stocking and supply constraints [5].

Core Viewpoint - The global DRAM market is entering a structural turning point, with major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and China's Changxin Storage planning to phase out DDR4 products and shift capacity towards DDR5 and high bandwidth memory (HBM) [2][3] Group 1: EOL Plans and Market Dynamics - Samsung will complete its final DDR4 chip orders by June 2025 and ship the last modules by mid-December 2025 [2] - SK Hynix plans to stop taking orders by October 2025 and complete final shipments by April 2026 [2] - Micron has notified customers that its DDR4 will enter EOL in June 2025, with shipments expected to cease in the first quarter of 2026 [2] - Changxin Storage aims to complete its last DDR4 shipments by Q4 2025, focusing future production on DDR5 [2] Group 2: Market Supply and Pricing Trends - The EOL actions by the top four suppliers are expected to create a supply-demand imbalance for DDR4, likely lasting until 2026 [3] - DDR4 spot prices have already surpassed DDR5 prices, with a peak difference of 30.3% noted in early June [3] - Historical trends suggest that this price inversion may persist for three to five months until demand for DDR4 significantly decreases [3] Group 3: Price Forecasts - TrendForce predicts that DRAM prices will rise significantly in Q3 2025, with increases of up to 45% driven by capacity reallocation and demand from AI servers [5] - DDR4 prices are expected to rise by 38% to 43% for PCs and 28% to 33% for servers due to supply constraints [6] - LPDDR4X is projected to increase by 23% to 28%, while GDDR6 prices may rise by 28% to 33% as suppliers shift focus to GDDR7 [7] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - The PC DRAM market faces dual pressures from demand and geopolitical factors, with anticipated U.S. tariffs prompting OEMs to expedite orders [8] - A 25% tariff on all memory types from Japan and South Korea starting August 1 is expected to lead to significant price increases for PC DRAM [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated price increases in the DRAM market due to shifts in production capacity and demand dynamics, particularly focusing on DDR4 and DDR5 products, as well as the impact of EOL (End of Life) policies on supply and pricing trends [3][4][5]. Group 1: DRAM Market Dynamics - Major DRAM manufacturers are shifting production towards high-end products, leading to a projected price increase of 10% to 15% for conventional DRAM in Q3 2025, with an overall increase of 15% to 20% when including HBM [3]. - Demand for DDR4 remains strong, with expectations of a price increase of 40% to 45% for consumer DDR4 in Q3 due to limited supply and prioritization of server applications [3][4]. - The supply of PC DDR4 is constrained by manufacturers' EOL policies and increased demand from cloud service providers, leading to a forecasted price increase of 8% to 13% for PC DRAM in Q3 [4][5]. Group 2: Server and Graphics DRAM Trends - The server DRAM market is experiencing increased demand driven by data center construction and AI server deployments, with price increases expected to be between 3% and 8% in Q3 [5]. - The graphics DRAM segment is seeing strong demand from NVIDIA's new generation graphics cards, with GDDR6 experiencing significant price increases due to supply constraints, while manufacturers are transitioning to GDDR7 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The shift in production capacity by major DRAM manufacturers towards high-end products and the end-of-life (EOL) announcements for older generation products like DDR4 and LPDDR4X are driving a significant increase in DRAM prices, with expectations of a 10% to 15% increase in conventional DRAM prices in Q3 2025, and a 15% to 20% increase when including HBM [1][4]. Summary by Category DRAM Price Trends - The demand for DDR4 remains strong, leading to a projected price increase of 40% to 45% for consumer DDR4 in Q3 2025 due to supply constraints and prioritization of server needs [4][5]. - Overall, conventional DRAM prices are expected to rise by 10% to 15% in Q3 2025, while HBM prices may increase by 15% to 20% [2][4]. PC DRAM Market - The price of PC DRAM is anticipated to increase by 8% to 13% in Q3 2025, driven by heightened demand and supply limitations as manufacturers shift focus to server DRAM [5]. - The EOL policy for DDR4 is causing a supply squeeze, particularly affecting consumer applications [5]. Server DRAM Market - The demand for DDR5 is strengthening due to data center expansions, while DDR4 is experiencing preemptive stockpiling ahead of its EOL [5]. - Server DRAM prices are expected to rise by 3% to 8% in Q3 2025, supported by new platform deployments and AI server requirements [5]. Mobile DRAM Market - LPDDR4X prices are projected to increase by 23% to 28% in Q3 2025 due to rising demand and supply reductions from major manufacturers [6]. - LPDDR5X prices are expected to rise by 5% to 10% as a result of seasonal demand [6]. Graphics DRAM Market - GDDR6 is experiencing a supply shortage, leading to significant price increases in Q3 2025, while GDDR7 is being introduced to meet new GPU demands [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated trends in the DRAM market for Q1 and Q2 of 2025, highlighting price adjustments and supply chain dynamics influenced by international conditions and demand shifts across various sectors [1][4][5]. Summary by Sections DRAM Price Trends - In Q1 2025, prices for various DRAM types are expected to decline significantly, with Conventional DRAM projected to drop by 8% to 13%. For Q2 2025, the decline is expected to narrow to 0% to 5% for Conventional DRAM, while HBM prices are anticipated to increase by 3% to 8% due to the ramp-up of HBM3e 12hi [2][4]. Supply Chain Dynamics - Major PC OEMs are increasing assembly volumes to reduce DRAM inventory levels. This is expected to lead to higher procurement from DRAM manufacturers in Q2 2025, particularly for those with low inventory levels [4][5]. - Samsung's HBM product certification is lagging, while SK hynix is focusing on Server and Mobile DRAM production, limiting the supply of PC DDR5 [4][5]. Mobile and Graphics DRAM - Mobile DRAM prices are expected to stabilize or increase slightly due to rising demand from high-end smartphones and other sectors. LPDDR5X is projected to see a price increase of 0% to 5%, while LPDDR4X may decline by 0% to 5% [6][7]. - Graphics DRAM demand is shifting towards GDDR7, with GDDR6 prices expected to decline by 3% to 8% due to increased demand from new models [6][7]. Consumer DRAM Outlook - The demand for Consumer DRAM is expected to gradually increase due to new projects like 4G/5G base station expansions. DDR4 prices are projected to rise by 0% to 5% in Q2 2025, while DDR3 prices are expected to remain stable [7].