公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 过去几十年来，英特尔的 x86 架构统治着计算领域，为从最基础的笔记本电脑到最强大的数据中心 设备等各种设备提供动力。然而，一场静悄悄的革命正在幕后悄然发生：Arm。Arm 架构在智能手 机时代真正开始站稳脚跟，如今正在主流计算领域占据重要地位，而这在以前是不可想象的。如此之 多，以至于 x86 的统治地位似乎已成定局。 有很多理由可以相信这一点，而且与几年前相比，现在想想也并非难以想象。苹果公司通过其M系列 Apple Silicon SoC向Arm的重大转变无疑开启了一股潮流，而微软再次推动基于Arm的Windows操 作系统，表明微软再次看到了它的价值。而这两项行业变革仅仅是冰山一角。 Arm 的行业支持很有说服力 Arm 崛起的最明显指标之一是芯片制造商，以及这些芯片的创造者群体在过去十年中如何不断壮 大。在 x86 领域，只有两家主要生产商：英特尔和 AMD。相比之下，Arm 生态系统拥有众多芯片 设计公司。一些科技界巨头正在打造基于 Arm 的高性能处理器：苹果用其自主研发的 M 系列芯片取 代了 Mac 中的英特尔 CPU，高通正在基于 Arm 为 ...

Core Insights - Data centers are becoming the core engine driving global economic and social development, marking a new era for the semiconductor industry, driven by AI, cloud computing, and large-scale infrastructure [2] - The demand for chips in data centers is evolving from simple processors and memory to a complex ecosystem encompassing computing, storage, interconnect, and power supply [2] AI Surge: The Arms Race in Data Centers - The explosion of artificial intelligence, particularly generative AI, is the strongest catalyst for this transformation, with AI-related capital expenditures surpassing non-AI spending, accounting for nearly 75% of data center investments [4] - By 2025, AI-related investments are expected to exceed $450 billion, with AI servers rapidly increasing from a few percent of total computing servers in 2020 to over 10% by 2024 [4] - Major tech giants are engaged in a fierce "computing power arms race," with companies like Microsoft, Google, and Meta investing hundreds of billions annually [4] - The data center semiconductor market is projected to expand significantly, reaching $493 billion by 2030, with data center semiconductors expected to account for over 50% of the total semiconductor market [4] Chip Dynamics: GPU and ASIC Race - GPUs will continue to dominate due to the increasing complexity and processing demands of AI workloads, with NVIDIA transforming from a traditional chip designer to a full-stack AI and data center solution provider [7] - Major cloud service providers are developing their own AI acceleration chips to compete with NVIDIA, intensifying competition in the AI chip sector [7] - High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is becoming essential for AI and high-performance computing servers, with the HBM market expected to reach $3.816 billion by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 68.2% from 2025 to 2033 [8] Disruptive Technologies: Redefining Data Center Performance - Silicon photonics and Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) are key technologies addressing high-speed, low-power interconnect challenges in data centers [10] - The adoption of advanced packaging technologies, such as 3D stacking and chiplets, allows semiconductor manufacturers to create more powerful and flexible heterogeneous computing platforms [12] - The shift to direct current (DC) power supply is becoming essential due to the rising power density demands of modern AI workloads, with power requirements for AI racks expected to reach 50 kW by 2027 [13] Cooling Solutions: Liquid Cooling Technology - Liquid cooling technology is becoming a necessity for modern data centers, with the market projected to grow at a CAGR of 14%, exceeding $61 billion by 2029 [14] - Various types of liquid cooling methods, including Direct Chip Liquid Cooling (DTC) and immersion cooling, are being adopted to manage the heat generated by high-performance AI chips [15] - Advanced thermal management strategies, including software-driven dynamic thermal management and AI model optimization, are crucial for maximizing future data center efficiency [16] Future Outlook - The future of data centers will be characterized by increasing heterogeneity, specialization, and energy efficiency, with chip design evolving beyond traditional CPU/GPU categories [17] - Advanced packaging technologies and efficient power supply systems will play a critical role in shaping the next generation of green and intelligent data centers [17]

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang asserts that NVIDIA's growth will continue to outpace that of Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), citing a high failure rate among ASIC projects and emphasizing NVIDIA's technological advancements and cost optimization [2][3]. Group 1: NVIDIA's Market Position - Huang believes that while many companies are developing ASICs, about 90% will fail, similar to the high failure rate of startups [2]. - NVIDIA is not overly concerned about the competition from ASICs, as they recognize that without NVIDIA, the computing field cannot thrive [3]. - Huang emphasizes that the development of ASICs is not the main challenge; rather, the deployment requires significant investment and expertise, which NVIDIA possesses [4]. Group 2: NVLink Fusion Announcement - NVIDIA introduced NVLink Fusion, a technology aimed at integrating third-party CPUs and accelerators with NVIDIA's ecosystem, allowing for semi-custom designs [5][7]. - NVLink Fusion enables non-NVIDIA CPUs to connect to NVIDIA GPUs via a short-distance chip-to-chip connection, enhancing flexibility for system vendors [9][11]. - The technology is seen as a step towards allowing third-party chip manufacturers to integrate their designs with NVIDIA's high-performance NVLink network [15]. Group 3: Industry Collaboration - Companies like Alchip, AsteraLabs, Marvell, and MediaTek are confirmed to be developing accelerators that will support NVLink Fusion, indicating a growing ecosystem around NVIDIA's technology [15]. - Fujitsu and Qualcomm are also working on new CPUs that will pair with NVIDIA GPUs, aiming to enhance efficiency through NVLink Fusion [15]. - Cadence and Synopsys are participating as technical partners in the NVLink Fusion initiative, providing IP blocks and design services to companies looking to build compatible hardware [16].

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang asserts that NVIDIA's growth will continue to outpace that of Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), citing a high failure rate among ASIC projects and emphasizing NVIDIA's rapid technological advancements and cost optimization [1][2][3]. Group 1: NVIDIA's Market Position - NVIDIA is not concerned about being marginalized in the AI market, recognizing its essential role in the computing field [2]. - Huang believes that most ASIC projects will be canceled if they do not outperform existing chips, indicating a competitive landscape where NVIDIA's technology remains superior [2][3]. Group 2: NVLink Technology - NVIDIA has introduced NVLink Fusion, a new technology aimed at integrating third-party CPUs and accelerators with NVIDIA's ecosystem, enhancing flexibility for system suppliers [5][7]. - NVLink has evolved since its introduction in 2016, significantly increasing bandwidth and enabling faster interconnects between GPUs [6][9]. Group 3: Future Developments - The NVLink Fusion initiative allows for semi-custom designs, enabling third-party chips to connect with NVIDIA GPUs, although it remains proprietary [10][14]. - Companies like Fujitsu and Qualcomm are developing CPUs that will support NVLink Fusion, aiming to improve efficiency and performance [16]. Group 4: Industry Collaboration - Cadence and Synopsys are participating as technical partners in the NVLink Fusion program, providing IP blocks and design services to companies looking to build compatible hardware [17].

Core Insights - Intel's new CEO, Pat Gelsinger, announced that the company holds a 55% share in the data center market, while AMD continues to gain momentum in the x86 CPU market despite Intel's slight market share increase [2][3] - AMD's x86 CPU market share reached 24.4%, with a year-over-year increase of 3.6 percentage points, while Intel's share grew to 75.6% [2] - In the server CPU segment, AMD's market share increased to a record 27.2%, marking a 1.5 percentage point increase from the previous quarter and a 3.6 percentage point increase year-over-year [3][4] Market Performance - AMD outperformed Intel in desktop and server markets, with AMD's desktop share rising to 28%, a 0.9 percentage point increase from the previous quarter and a 4.1 percentage point increase year-over-year [3][4] - Intel's notebook market share grew by 1.2 percentage points to 77.5%, while AMD's share was 22.5%, still up 3.2 percentage points from the previous year [4] - Both companies experienced significant growth in server CPU shipments, with AMD's growth rate outpacing Intel's [3] Pricing and Revenue - AMD's average selling price (ASP) for desktop CPUs reached a historical high, contributing to record revenue despite a decline in shipment volumes [4] - The demand for AMD's high-end desktop CPUs, particularly the Ryzen 9000 X3D version, has significantly increased [3][4] Competitive Landscape - Arm's CPU market share surpassed 10% for the first time, driven by strong sales of Nvidia's Grace CPU and increased shipments of Arm CPUs for Chromebooks [6][8] - Arm aims to capture 50% of the data center CPU market by the end of the year, up from 15% last year, largely due to the growth of AI server demand [8][11] - Major cloud providers like AWS, Google, and Microsoft are increasingly adopting Arm-based processors, with AWS planning to deploy over 1.2 million Arm CPUs this year [11] Future Outlook - The demand for AI servers is expected to grow by over 300% in the coming years, with Arm's Neoverse computing platform being favored by leading cloud partners [8][11] - Despite the anticipated growth, Arm-based servers are projected to account for only 20% to 23% of the global server market by 2025 [11]

朱莉·张： 那么，如果苹果的 Siri 开发不完善，会发生什么？这会对苹果的硬件产品产生影响吗？ 乔安娜·斯特恩： 所以，苹果大概会继续打造出色的硬件，但在这种情况下，其他类型的人工智能 提供商，也就是我们现在开始真正依赖的那些，比如 ChatGPT 和 Perplexity，会开始接管更多的 软件界面。所以，当我们使用手机时，我们不会与 Siri 对话，也不会使用苹果的应用程序。最 终，iPhone 和苹果生产的许多其他设备只会成为其他公司的容器。还有一个更大的担忧，那就是 其他公司会变得非常擅长硬件。我们已经开始看到这种情况发生了。我们在 Meta 身上就看到了这 一点。我非常喜欢 Meta 的雷朋眼镜。它们只是一副简单的眼镜；里面有摄像头、麦克风和扬声 器，你可以用它与 Meta 的人工智能对话。这真的很有用。所以，如果其他公司也开始制造出真正 优秀的硬件，并将其与他们的人工智能集成，那么人们可能会开始购买这些产品，而不是苹果。 Julie Chang： 那么现在请您谈谈您设想的第二条道路。如果苹果成功实现人工智能，会发生什 么？ 乔安娜·斯特恩： 我称之为 Siri-Topia。Siri 的运行正如我 ...