中信建投（601066）发布研报称，我国化工品价格已经连续下行4年，反内卷政策/协会自律行动纷纷出 台，周期拐点或渐行渐近。我们认为在供给、需求都有边际改善预期的情况下，关注供给格局改善和内 需相关的顺周期板块。其中，氟化工关注东岳集团等。开源证券认为，随着碳达峰、碳中和战略的持续 推进，二代制冷剂R22即将大规模削减，HFCs有望受益于国家政策实现渗透率快速提升。 消息面上，据钢联数据，R32制冷剂价格高位持稳，R134a制冷剂高位续涨。根据百川盈孚数据，截至 10月31日，R32、R125、R410a、R134a价格较年初分别上涨46.51%、8.33%、27.83%、27.06%。 东岳集团(00189)盘中涨超8%，截至发稿，涨6.31%，报11.12港元，成交额4.25亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company released its Q3 2025 report, showing a revenue of 3.786 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 469 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 220.39% [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.46%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 198 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 485.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.74% [1] - The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin for Q3 2025 were 27.38% and 14.78%, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 12.65 and 11.98 percentage points, and quarter-on-quarter increases of 0.48 and 1.44 percentage points [2] Segment Performance - In Q3 2025, the sales volume of various segments showed mixed results: fluorocarbon chemicals decreased by 14.59%, fluoropolymer materials increased by 7.46%, chemical raw materials increased by 7.03%, and fluorine fine chemicals surged by 480.64% year-on-year. Quarter-on-quarter changes were 10.84%, 0.63%, -2.77%, and 26.17%, respectively [2] - The average selling prices varied, with fluorocarbon chemicals increasing by 23.97% year-on-year, while fluorine fine chemicals decreased by 26.59% [2] Market Outlook - The consumption of annual quotas continues, leading to an upward shift in the prices of mainstream refrigerants. Near the end of the year, the limited availability of quotas and recent price agreements for R32 and R410a have strengthened the manufacturers' and traders' pricing strategies [3] - The industry is expected to maintain a strong price trend due to low inventory levels and warm demand, with a tight supply-demand structure anticipated for the medium to long term [3] Long-term Growth Potential - The company is advancing high-value projects, including the development of fourth-generation environmentally friendly refrigerants and the construction of new production facilities for HFOs. Additionally, the company is accelerating the industrialization of emerging products such as electronic immersion cooling liquids [3] - The fluorochemical product matrix is gradually improving, which is expected to provide sufficient momentum for the company's long-term growth [3] Investment Recommendation - Given the strong price trends for HFCs and the expansion of the company's fluoropolymer production and sales, the profit forecast for the company has been raised. Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 652 million, 820 million, and 951 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 159.56%, 25.74%, and 15.99%, respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released a draft plan for the total allocation of ozone-depleting substances for 2026, indicating a reduction in production and internal use quotas for HCFCs and HFCs, which may sustain high industry prosperity due to supply constraints and strong demand in air conditioning markets [1] Group 1: Quota Adjustments - For HCFCs, the production and internal use quotas for 2026 are set at 151,400 tons and 79,700 tons, respectively, representing a decrease of 12,200 tons and 6,300 tons compared to 2025 [1] - Specifically, the R22 production and internal use quotas for 2026 are 146,100 tons and 78,000 tons, reflecting a reduction of 3,000 tons and 2,900 tons from 2025 [1] Group 2: HFCs Quota Changes - In the case of HFCs, the production quota for R245fa is increased by 3,000 tons for 2026 compared to 2025, while the R41 production quota is raised by 50 tons, with other varieties remaining unchanged [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The quota system for refrigerants HCFCs and HFCs maintains supply constraints, combined with high product concentration, a favorable competitive landscape, and robust demand from household and automotive air conditioning, suggesting that the industry's high prosperity may continue [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has proposed a draft to ban the production of household refrigerators and freezers using hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) as refrigerants starting from January 1, 2026, marking a significant step towards environmental protection and compliance with international agreements [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The draft aims to phase out HFCs, which are potent greenhouse gases and significant contributors to ozone layer depletion, by promoting the use of more environmentally friendly refrigerants like R600a, which has a low global warming potential [1]. - The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, accepted by China in 2021, sets a target to reduce global HFCs by at least 80% over the coming decades, with the formal implementation in China starting in September 2021 [2]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The 2025 plan outlines a 10% reduction in the production and usage of HFCs compared to baseline values, with a specific quota reduction of 51,241 tons for 2025 compared to 2024 [3]. - The Chinese home appliance industry has seen significant growth, with total revenue reaching 1.84 trillion yuan and total profits of 156.5 billion yuan in 2023, while also achieving over 50% of global production share in major home appliance products [3]. Group 3: Compliance and Enforcement - The draft mandates that relevant departments ensure companies comply with the regulations regarding the elimination of HFCs in household refrigeration, with penalties for violations enforced by local environmental authorities [4].