（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 化工龙头ETF（516220）跟踪的是细分化工指数（000813），该指数从市场中选取涉及有机化学品、无 机化学品、化肥与农药等细分领域的代表性企业作为指数样本，以反映化工行业相关上市公司的整体表 现。细分化工指数聚焦于化学工业领域，通过配置不同子行业的龙头企业，全面展现中国化工产业的多 样化结构和成长潜力。 天风证券指出，2026年三代制冷剂生产配额为79.8万吨，较2025年仅增加5963吨，内用和出口配额分别 增长4502吨和1461吨，整体变化有限。供给端高度集中，行业生产配额CR6达90%，内用配额CR6为 88%，头部企业包括巨化股份（市占率37.6%）、三美股份（15.2%）等。配额调整中，R134a因新能源 汽车需求拉动增加3242吨，R245fa作为绿色替代品增发2918吨，而R32等前期高价品种调整谨慎。企业 根据动态供需理性调整配额，行业维持紧平衡状态。此外，永和股份是主要调增企业，其R32和R134a 配额分别增至7611吨和1.3万吨。 ...

制冷剂配额约束下供给刚性，看好制冷剂景气周期 2026年三代制冷剂生产配额总量为797844吨，内用配额394082吨，相较于2025年，2026年三代制冷剂生 产配额总量增加5962吨，内用配额增加4502吨。2026年生产配额增量主要是R32增加1171吨，R134a增 加3242吨，R245fa增加2918吨；配额减少的有R143a减少1255吨、R227ea减少517吨以及R152a减少63 吨。 三代制冷剂价格延续涨势 根据百川盈孚，截止2025年12月12日，主流三代制冷剂及混配品种R134a/R125/R32/R410价格为 57500/45500/62500/54000元/吨，周涨幅+1.77%/+1.11%/0.00%/+0.93%，月涨幅 +6.48%/+1.11%/+0.00%/+0.93%，季涨幅+11.65%/+1.11%/+2.46%/+6.93%，年涨幅 +43.75%/+19.74%/+56.25%/+42.11%。 制冷需求延续增长，根据国家统计局，2025年1-10月国内空调产量累计值23034万台，同比+3.00%，出 口延续高基数，出口数量5243万台，同比-1.10% ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is expected to remain relatively stable compared to 2025, with a total production quota of 797,844 tons, an increase of 5,962 tons from 2025. The internal use quota will increase by 4,502 tons [8] - The prices of third-generation refrigerants continue to rise, with significant annual increases observed, such as R134a increasing by 43.75% year-on-year [8] - The supply of refrigerants is expected to remain rigid due to quota constraints, while demand continues to grow, driven by increasing production of air conditioning units and automobiles [8] Summary by Sections Production Quota - The total production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is 797,844 tons, with internal use quota at 394,082 tons. The main increases are in R134a (3,242 tons) and R245fa (2,918 tons), while R143a, R227ea, and R152a see reductions [8] Price Trends - As of December 12, 2025, the prices for major third-generation refrigerants are as follows: R134a at 57,500 CNY/ton, R125 at 45,500 CNY/ton, R32 at 62,500 CNY/ton, and R410 at 54,000 CNY/ton, with notable monthly and annual growth rates [8] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic air conditioning production from January to October 2025 reached 23,034 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.00%. The automotive sector also saw a production increase of 11.00% during the same period, indicating a robust demand for refrigerants [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the implementation of the 2026 refrigerant quota reduction for second-generation refrigerants and the continuation of the third-generation refrigerant quota system will maintain a tight supply-demand balance for mainstream refrigerants like R32 and R134a, with significant long-term price upside potential [1][2]. Regulatory Framework - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued the quota setting and distribution plan for 2026, emphasizing strict compliance with the annual phase-out tasks for second-generation refrigerants and making slight adjustments to the third-generation refrigerant quotas, increasing the inter-species adjustment limit from 10% to 30% [1][3]. Production Quotas - For HCFCs, the production quota for 2026 is set at 151,400 tons, with a reduction of 71.5% and 76.1% from baseline values for production and usage, respectively. The R22 production quota will see a year-on-year reduction of 3,000 tons, which is a decrease of 2.01% [3][4]. Market Dynamics - R22 prices have stabilized after a decline, while R32 and R134a continue to show strong market conditions. The average price of R22 fell to 34,100 CNY/ton in Q3 2025, while R32's average price rose to 59,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a strong demand [5]. Investment Opportunities - Companies with complete industrial chains, robust infrastructure, leading refrigerant quotas, and advanced technology in fluorochemical production are recommended for investment. Notable companies include Juhua Co., Ltd. (600610.SH), Dongyue Group (00189), and Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379.SH) [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][23] Core Viewpoints - The release of the 2026 refrigerant quota allocation plan indicates long-term constraints on the supply side for both second and third-generation refrigerants, suggesting a continuation of favorable market conditions for refrigerant products [3][4] - The reduction in second-generation refrigerant quotas, particularly for R22, is expected to improve the supply-demand balance [3][5] - The flexibility in adjusting third-generation refrigerant quotas has increased, allowing companies to adapt production based on actual supply and demand, which benefits firms with a comprehensive product range and higher quota allocations [3][8] - The tightening of refrigerant quotas is seen as a long-term trend, with expectations that mainstream refrigerants like R32 and R134a will maintain a favorable market outlook and significant price upside potential [3][19] Summary by Sections Quota Allocation Changes - In 2026, the production quota for R22 is reduced by 3,000 tons, and the quota for R141b is eliminated entirely. The total production quota for HCFCs is set at 151,400 tons, with a reduction of 71.5% from the baseline [2][5] - The total production and usage quotas for HCFCs in 2026 will be 79,700 tons, reflecting a reduction of 76.1% from the baseline [5] Market Dynamics - The average price of R22 has decreased to approximately 15,000-18,000 yuan/ton, with expectations of price stabilization [9] - R32 has shown strong performance with an average price reaching 59,000 yuan/ton, indicating a robust market demand [10] - R134a prices have also increased due to ongoing quota consumption, with current prices around 53,000 yuan/ton [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading fluorochemical companies with complete industrial chains, advanced technology, and strong quota positions, such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. [3][19]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released a draft plan for the total allocation of ozone-depleting substances for 2026, indicating a reduction in production and internal use quotas for HCFCs and HFCs, which may sustain high industry prosperity due to supply constraints and strong demand in air conditioning markets [1] Group 1: Quota Adjustments - For HCFCs, the production and internal use quotas for 2026 are set at 151,400 tons and 79,700 tons, respectively, representing a decrease of 12,200 tons and 6,300 tons compared to 2025 [1] - Specifically, the R22 production and internal use quotas for 2026 are 146,100 tons and 78,000 tons, reflecting a reduction of 3,000 tons and 2,900 tons from 2025 [1] Group 2: HFCs Quota Changes - In the case of HFCs, the production quota for R245fa is increased by 3,000 tons for 2026 compared to 2025, while the R41 production quota is raised by 50 tons, with other varieties remaining unchanged [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The quota system for refrigerants HCFCs and HFCs maintains supply constraints, combined with high product concentration, a favorable competitive landscape, and robust demand from household and automotive air conditioning, suggesting that the industry's high prosperity may continue [1]