永和股份预计第三季度归母净利润同比增长超4倍 见习记者 夏天 受益于制冷剂行业持续的高景气度，永和股份（证券代码：605020）预计前三季度业绩大幅增长。 10月8日晚间，永和股份发布2025年前三季度业绩预增公告。公司预计前三季度实现归母净利润4.56亿元至4.76亿元，同比增长211.59%至225.25%。 预计第三季度业绩同比、环比双增长 从业绩预告来看，在上半年高增长的基础上，永和股份第三季度业绩呈加速增长之势。 公司预计第三季度实现归母净利润1.85亿元至2.05亿元，同比增长447.64%至506.85%；环比增长6.34%至17.83%。预计第三季度实现扣非归母净利润1.74 亿元至1.94亿元，同比增长396.82%至453.92%，环比增长1.71%至13.40%。 | 证券代码:605020 | 证券简称:永和股份 | 公告编号: 2025-082 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码:111007 | 债券简称:永和转债 | | 对于业绩大幅预增的原因，永和股份表示，一是制冷剂行业高景气度延续。受益于供给侧配额政策与下游需求稳步增长，制冷剂行业整体维持高景气态 势。 ...

【导读】永和股份预计第三季度归母净利润同比增长超4倍 见习记者 夏天 受益于制冷剂行业持续的高景气度， 永和股份 （证券代码：605020）预计前三季度业绩大幅增长。 10月8日晚间，永和股份发布2025年前三季度业绩预增公告。公司预计前三季度 实现归母净利润4.56亿元至4.76亿元，同比增长 211.59%至225.25%。 预计第三季度业绩同比、环比双增长 制冷剂行业高景气度有望持续 永和股份主营氟化学产品的研发、生产、销售，是氟化工龙头企业之一，现已形成从萤石矿、氢氟酸、甲烷氯化物、氟碳化学品到含氟高 分子材料、含氟精细化学品的完整产业链。 2025年上半年，受益于制冷剂行业的高景气度，包括永和股份在内的多家氟化工龙头企业盈利能力显著增长。 从下游需求看，目前国内制冷剂下游行业分布大致为空调（62.18%）、冰箱（4.78%）、汽车（9.87%）、其他（23.17%）。在消费升 级、技术创新、政策推动等因素作用下 ，第二代氟制冷剂 （HCFCs）在发达国家已经基本淘汰，我国实行配额制度，逐渐减产。第三代 氟制冷剂（HFCs）在发展中国家逐步替代第二代氟制冷剂，目前发达国家已开始削减用量。 | | 门 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released a draft plan for the total allocation of ozone-depleting substances for 2026, indicating a reduction in production and internal use quotas for HCFCs and HFCs, which may sustain high industry prosperity due to supply constraints and strong demand in air conditioning markets [1] Group 1: Quota Adjustments - For HCFCs, the production and internal use quotas for 2026 are set at 151,400 tons and 79,700 tons, respectively, representing a decrease of 12,200 tons and 6,300 tons compared to 2025 [1] - Specifically, the R22 production and internal use quotas for 2026 are 146,100 tons and 78,000 tons, reflecting a reduction of 3,000 tons and 2,900 tons from 2025 [1] Group 2: HFCs Quota Changes - In the case of HFCs, the production quota for R245fa is increased by 3,000 tons for 2026 compared to 2025, while the R41 production quota is raised by 50 tons, with other varieties remaining unchanged [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The quota system for refrigerants HCFCs and HFCs maintains supply constraints, combined with high product concentration, a favorable competitive landscape, and robust demand from household and automotive air conditioning, suggesting that the industry's high prosperity may continue [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [34]. Core Insights - The basic chemical index increased by 1.6% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.3 percentage points, ranking 16th among 31 industries. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 25.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 9.5 percentage points, ranking 9th among 31 industries [4][14]. - Among the sub-sectors, six out of seven saw price increases, with the chemical fiber sector up by 3.0%, plastics by 2.9%, and agricultural chemicals by 2.0%. Only the chemical raw materials sector experienced a slight decline of 0.01% [16]. - The report highlights significant price increases for major refrigerants in June 2025 compared to the beginning of the year, with R134a up by 15.29%, R125 by 8.33%, R32 by 22.09%, and R410A by 16.67% [28]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of September 11, the basic chemical index has shown a year-to-date increase of 25.1%, with notable sub-sector performances including a 55.1% rise in the plastics sector and a 27.8% increase in the rubber sector [16][17]. Chemical Product Price Trends - Recent price movements include a 1.20% increase in hydrochloric acid and a 0.82% increase in refrigerant R32, while TDI and synthetic ammonia saw declines of 0.46% and 1.96%, respectively [21][22]. Key Company Announcements - Notable announcements include a profit distribution plan by Lingwei Technology and strategic adjustments by Qide New Materials regarding stock options and subsidiary management [26]. Industry Outlook - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for refrigerant companies due to rising prices and improved profitability, particularly for Sanmei Co. and Juhua Co., suggesting investors pay attention to these companies [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The profitability of several leading fluorochemical companies has significantly increased in the first half of the year, driven by rising prices and volumes of refrigerants [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Juhua Co., Ltd. reported a net profit of 2.051 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 146.97%, surpassing last year's total [2][3]. - Sanmei Co., Ltd. achieved a net profit of 999.5 million yuan, up 159.22% year-on-year, despite a 6.27% decline in refrigerant sales volume [3]. - Dongyangguang and Yonghe Co., Ltd. also reported strong performances, with net profits increasing by 170.57% and 140.82%, respectively [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The supply of refrigerants is constrained due to quota systems, leading to improved industry ecology and competitive order [1][2]. - The average price of refrigerants has risen significantly, with Juhua Co. reporting an average price of 39,400 yuan per ton, a 61.88% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The demand for refrigerants is driven by domestic policies promoting appliance upgrades and international market growth due to urbanization and consumption upgrades [1][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts expect the price of mainstream refrigerants to continue rising, with R32 prices increasing by nearly 40% since the beginning of the year [4][5]. - The domestic refrigerant market is expected to benefit from ongoing demand in air conditioning, refrigeration, and automotive sectors, despite potential slowdowns in certain areas [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven primarily by the performance of its refrigerant segment despite challenges in the organic silicon and fluoropolymer markets [1][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.79 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 153% [1]. - The total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 74.63 billion yuan, up 2.79% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin was 29.11%, an increase of 9.28 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 14.16%, up 8.72 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Refrigerant Segment - The refrigerant segment saw a revenue increase of 47.69% year-on-year, reaching 22.92 billion yuan, with profits soaring by 209.77% to 10.30 billion yuan [2]. - The company is a leading producer of R22 and R32 in China, holding approximately 22,000 tons of R22 capacity and 6,000 tons of R32 capacity [2]. - The company holds the largest R22 quota in China at 43,900 tons, accounting for 29.46% of the total quota, and a significant R32 quota of 56,300 tons, representing 20.09% of the total [2]. Fluoropolymer Segment - The company has a well-established fluoropolymer supply chain, with 55,000 tons of PTFE capacity and 25,000 tons of PVDF capacity, ranking first and second in China, respectively [3]. - Despite a weak demand and oversupply in the fluoropolymer market, the company maintained a certain level of profitability due to its product quality and cost advantages [3]. - Revenue from the fluoropolymer segment decreased by 4.58% year-on-year to 19.40 billion yuan, with profits down 14.57% to 2.59 billion yuan [3]. Organic Silicon Segment - The organic silicon segment faced challenges, with revenue declining by 15.95% year-on-year to 23.19 billion yuan and profits dropping by 83.70% to 8.75 million yuan [4]. - The company has a total capacity of 600,000 tons for organic silicon monomers and 200,000 tons for downstream products, but faced price declines due to increased capacity and weak downstream demand [4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a long-term favorable cycle in the refrigerant market, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicating net profits of 21.23 billion yuan, 25.63 billion yuan, and 28.06 billion yuan, respectively [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.23 yuan, 1.48 yuan, and 1.62 yuan, respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][38]. Core Viewpoints - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 is projected to be 2.051 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 146.97% [10]. - The significant growth in performance is primarily driven by the strong performance of the refrigerant business, with the average price of refrigerant products increasing by 61.88% year-on-year to 39,400 yuan per ton [10][11]. - The company benefits from a global leading production quota advantage in the context of the third-generation refrigerant quota system, which has transformed the industry supply structure from excess competition to supply constraints [10][24]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 13.331 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.36%, and a net profit of 2.051 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 146.97% [10]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 7.531 billion yuan, up 13.93% year-on-year and 29.84% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 1.242 billion yuan, up 137.07% year-on-year and 53.56% quarter-on-quarter [10]. Industry Overview - Refrigerants are essential consumer products, increasingly distinguished from traditional chemical raw materials, and are characterized by low cost share in downstream applications, convenient delivery, and high value [2][23]. - The supply side of the refrigerant industry is undergoing optimization, with increasing industry concentration and a shift towards a global "franchise" production and sales model [2][23]. - China holds over 80% of the global quota for third-generation refrigerants, benefiting from structural reforms in supply and high concentration of quotas among leading enterprises [2][23]. Business Segments - The non-refrigerant business faces intense competition, with fluoropolymer prices showing a slight recovery [3][32]. - The company sold 22,900 tons of fluoropolymers in the first half of 2025, with a second-quarter average selling price of 38,446 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [3][32]. Growth Opportunities - The demand for liquid cooling solutions is rapidly increasing due to the rise in server power density driven by AI technology, positioning the company favorably in the liquid cooling market [4][37]. - The company has proactively developed fluorinated liquid products and has initiated a project to produce perfluoropolyether cooling liquids, with the first phase already in production [4][37].

Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 13.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.36%, and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 146.97% to 2.05 billion yuan [1][2] Financial Performance - The total profit for the company was 2.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 48.27% [1] - The average price of refrigerants increased by 61.88% in the first half of 2025, reaching 39,400 yuan per ton [1] Industry Context - The company's performance is closely linked to the implementation of quota systems for refrigerants, with the second-generation refrigerants undergoing a rapid phase-out and the third generation entering a production freeze period [1][2] - The production quota for HCFC-22 in 2025 is set at 38,900 tons, accounting for 26.10% of the national total, while HFCs production quota is 297,800 tons, representing 39.33% of the same category [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively building new business models for refrigerants and enhancing its competitive position globally by improving interactions with downstream manufacturers and optimizing resource allocation [3][4] - Research and development investments totaled 603 million yuan, with fixed asset investments reaching 1.99 billion yuan during the reporting period [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that differences in baseline quotas and production capacities among industry players will lead to varying economic performance, and it may pursue quota trading to enhance industry consolidation and efficiency [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the refrigerant industry [13]. Core Insights - The refrigerant industry is experiencing a price increase under quota control since 2024, with significant price rises observed for various refrigerants. The sustainability and potential for further price increases are areas of market concern, which the report aims to explore [5][8]. - The report emphasizes that the price increase is not driven by traditional supply-demand mismatches but rather reflects a new operational model in the industry. The supply side is characterized by high concentration and limited capacity for new entrants, particularly in China, which holds a dominant position in production and market share [8][40]. Summary by Sections Price Sustainability - The sustainability of price increases is linked to the current position of products within their cycles. The report suggests that refrigerants have moved beyond traditional cyclical logic, indicating a potential for long-term price increases [8][36]. - The supply side is constrained, with a high concentration of market players and limited ability to increase supply globally. This is further supported by the fact that the domestic market has significant production power [8][40]. Price Potential - The report discusses the potential for price increases, noting that the historical price elasticity of refrigerants allows for significant price tolerance. For instance, R32's price has risen from 1.70 million yuan/ton to 5.40 million yuan/ton, reflecting a 217.6% increase [23]. - The report argues that the long-term production costs of alternative refrigerants (like R1234yf) do not set a ceiling for the prices of existing refrigerants, suggesting that the price of third-generation refrigerants could continue to rise [9][69]. Long-term Investment Value - The report concludes that the refrigerant industry holds substantial long-term investment value, with companies increasingly approaching traditional chemical product valuation peaks. The ongoing price increases and the unique market dynamics suggest that related companies may be undervalued [10][11]. - Specific companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Dongyue Group, Yonghe Co., and Haohua Technology are recommended for continued investment due to their strong market positions and growth potential [11].

Core Viewpoint - The company expects significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by a favorable market environment for refrigerants and strong demand [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 1.97-2.13 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 136%-155% [2]. - For Q2 2025, the expected net profit is between 1.16-1.32 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 122%-152% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 44%-63% [2]. - The average price of fluorochemical raw materials is projected to be 3,629 yuan/ton, up 10% year-on-year, with a sales volume of 188,000 tons, an increase of 12% [3]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The refrigerant industry is experiencing a sustained high level of prosperity due to the reduction of production quotas for second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) and the implementation of production quotas for third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) starting in 2024 [3][4]. - The average price of refrigerants is expected to be 39,372 yuan/ton, a 62% increase year-on-year, despite a 4% decrease in sales volume to 15.5 tons [3]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced a reduction in production and internal use quotas for second-generation refrigerants, aligning with expectations, while third-generation refrigerants have seen an unexpected increase in quotas [4][5].