证券研究报告 Keep (3650 HK) 利润扭亏为盈，全面聚焦 AI 战略 2025 年 8 月 27 日│中国香港 互联网 Keep 1H25 总收入 8.2 亿元，同比-20.8%，非 IFRS 净利润 0.1 亿元，对应 非 IFRS 净利率 1.3%，同比盈利转正，我们认为转正主因消费品业务结构 优化下毛利率同比提升、非核心低效业务精简和有纪律的费用控制举措。公 司正全面聚焦 AI 战略下的核心业务转型，1H25 已达成多智能体 MAS 系统 落地、Keep AI Coach 核心功能迭代和 AIGC 工作流革新三大进展。我们建 议关注公司 APP 后续 AI 功能更新迭代带来的用户增长和付费率提升机会和 各项降本增效举措下的盈利能力提升节奏。维持"买入"评级。 低毛利率品类优化和产品聚焦带动消费品毛利率同比改善 公司 1H25 收入同比-20.8%至 8.2 亿元，其中自有品牌运动产品收入同比 -20.9%至 4.0 亿元，该业务毛利率为 34.8%，同比+3.3pp，主因收缩低毛 利率品类和聚焦装备、服装及 AI 穿戴等高潜力品类，并完善精细化运营体 系。管理层在 1H25 业绩会上表示未来将 ...

Core Viewpoint - Keep's recent earnings announcement indicates a significant improvement in profitability, with a loss of approximately RMB 36 million for the first half of 2025, a 78% reduction from RMB 163 million in the same period last year, and an adjusted net profit of about RMB 10 million, signaling a successful strategic pivot towards AI [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's core financial indicators show accelerated recovery, with improved gross margins and significantly reduced losses despite a challenging strategic transition [2]. - The positive financial results are attributed to a focus on optimizing business structure and revenue quality, leading to increased gross margins and enhanced operational efficiency through AI technology [2][3]. Group 2: AI Technology Integration - Keep launched Kinetic.ai, a specialized AI model for the sports and health sector, trained on data from 400 million users, which customizes workout plans for users [3]. - The introduction of the AI coach Kaka enhances user experience by providing personalized training plans and multi-modal capabilities, including voice control and image recognition [3][4]. - Keep's hardware products, such as the Keep Watch Pilot 1, serve as essential infrastructure for user retention and data accumulation, evolving from mere revenue supplements to core components of the business model [4][5]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - The market has mixed reactions to Keep's AI strategy, with some concerns about profitability and competition, while others see potential in the intelligent restructuring of the sports health industry [6]. - Institutions like Guosen Securities and Huatai Securities express optimism about Keep's future, recognizing the shift from a simple tool-based app to an AI application as a significant valuation change [6][7]. - The national health policy aimed at improving weight management awareness and skills by 2026 creates a larger potential user base for Keep's AI health management services, transitioning from optional to essential consumption [7][8]. Group 4: Revenue Model Transformation - The traditional fitness industry's bottleneck of scarce professional trainers is being addressed by Keep's AI-generated content, which now constitutes nearly 15% of its course offerings [8]. - The AI Coach redefines the revenue model from "content commodification" to "service experience," enhancing user engagement and payment motivation [8][9]. - The integration of AI allows for a dynamic service loop that simulates the emotional support of in-person trainers, potentially increasing the average revenue per user (ARPU) significantly [9][10]. Group 5: Conclusion - The combination of policy-driven demand and AI-enhanced personalized services is expected to catalyze unprecedented growth in the fitness industry, positioning Keep for a potential market explosion [10].

Core Insights - Keep is expected to report a loss of approximately 36 million yuan for the six months ending June 30, 2025, a reduction of about 78% compared to a loss of 163 million yuan for the same period ending June 30, 2024 [1] - The company anticipates an adjusted net profit of around 10 million yuan for the same period, compared to an adjusted net loss of 161 million yuan for the previous year [1] Group 1 - The improvement in profitability is attributed to a focus on optimizing business structure and revenue quality, leading to an increase in gross margin [3] - The integration of AI technology is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce operating costs, despite a short-term revenue contraction due to the streamlining of inefficient product categories [3] - The strategic focus remains on two core areas: AI integration in the app and the continued profitable growth of proprietary fitness products [3] Group 2 - The company aims to enhance user experience and retention through AI-driven improvements in sports scenarios and tools [3] - Keep plans to optimize its product structure and launch new products that meet market demand while expanding sales channels to increase market coverage [3] - On February 4, during its 10th anniversary, the founder emphasized a commitment to "All in AI" and developing a data-centric hardware ecosystem to expand the brand's presence in various sports scenarios and global markets [4]

Group 1: Market Trends and Growth - The health consumption market in China is expanding, with the total revenue of the health industry expected to reach 9 trillion yuan in 2024, up from 8 trillion yuan in 2021, indicating significant growth [2] - The demand for health services is shifting from a single focus on medical services to a diversified approach, leading to innovative business models and a variety of health-related products and services [2][4] - The popularity of "health tourism" and related activities reflects a change in consumer attitudes towards health and wellness, with a growing emphasis on quality of life and holistic health management [4][7] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Preferences - Young consumers are increasingly prioritizing health-related spending, with "health maintenance" ranking among the top three expenditure categories for individuals aged 18-35 [8] - There is a notable rise in the consumption of health products among young people, with 78.2% of surveyed youth having paid for health products, indicating a shift towards nutrition and wellness [8][9] - The trend towards low-sugar and low-calorie health foods is gaining traction among younger demographics, with innovative products tailored to their preferences emerging in the market [8][9] Group 3: Technological Integration in Health Products - The integration of smart technology in health products is on the rise, with sales of health monitoring devices like smart wristbands increasing by 41.6% year-on-year in the first quarter [12] - Companies are leveraging artificial intelligence to enhance user experience in fitness apps, with platforms like "Keep" offering personalized training plans and a wide range of courses [12][13] - The demand for interactive and personalized health services is driving innovation in the health tech sector, leading to the development of smart fitness equipment and applications that cater to individual health needs [11][13]