Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.39 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.06%, while net profit decreased by 23.1% to 906 million yuan [1] - Adjusted net profit for H1 2025 was 1.28 billion yuan, reflecting a 3% increase year-on-year [1] - The company raised its full-year revenue growth guidance from no less than 22.8% to 25% due to significant improvements in same-store sales both domestically and internationally [3] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.966 billion yuan, a 23% year-on-year increase, while net profit was 490 million yuan, down 16.67% [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 690 million yuan, showing a 10.6% increase year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 44.28%, with a slight increase of 0.05 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 0.33 percentage points year-on-year [3] Store Expansion and Strategy - The number of MINISO stores in China reached 4,305 by Q2 2025, an increase of 190 stores year-on-year [2] - The company continues to implement a large store strategy, with significant sales from upgraded stores like the MINISO LAND store in Shanghai [2] - Overseas, the number of MINISO stores reached 3,307, with a year-on-year increase of 554 stores [2] Product Development and IP Strategy - The company signed nine toy designers to enhance its own IP portfolio, indicating a strategic move towards self-developed products [3] - The collaboration with HITOY to operate new IPs reflects the company's commitment to expanding its product offerings [3] Shareholder Returns - In H1 2025, the company returned a total of 1.07 billion yuan to shareholders, including 730 million yuan in cash dividends and 340 million yuan in share buybacks [4] - The total return to shareholders accounted for 84% of the adjusted net profit for the first half of the year [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a Q2 adjusted net profit growth of 11% year-on-year, indicating a potential operational turning point with positive same-store sales growth in the domestic market [1] - The company is positioned as a leading trend retail brand with its own IP strategy, and the overseas expansion presents significant growth opportunities [1] - The report anticipates an increase in Non-IFRS net profit for 2025-2027, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's financial performance [1] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, total revenue is projected at 13,838 million, with a year-on-year growth of 39.42% [1] - The adjusted net profit for 2025E is estimated at 2,939 million, with a year-on-year growth of 8.03% [1] - The company's gross margin for Q2 was 44.28%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.33 percentage points [1] - The company plans to open over 500 new overseas stores in 2025, focusing on store quality rather than quantity [1] - The company reported a total revenue of 49.66 billion for Q2, with a year-on-year increase of 23.07% [1] Market Data Summary - The closing price of the stock is 39.06 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 44,290.37 million HKD [5] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is currently at 19.87, projected to decrease to 11.07 by 2027E [1][8] - The company has a net asset value per share of 8.67 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO [4][6] Core Views - MINISO achieved a revenue of 16.994 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.8%, with an adjusted net profit of 2.721 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 101 million USD, which is approximately 50% of the adjusted net profit for the six months ending December 31, 2024 [1] - The domestic store expansion is steady, with a net increase of 136 stores in Q4 2024, bringing the total to 4,386 stores, an increase of 460 stores year-on-year [1] - The overseas market continues to grow primarily through direct stores, with a total of 3,118 overseas stores by Q4 2024, an increase of 631 stores year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Domestic Performance - In Q4 2024, domestic MINISO achieved a revenue of 2.297 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [1] - Same-store sales faced pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 4.62% in Q4 [1] Overseas Performance - Overseas revenue reached 2.132 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 42.7% [2] - Direct store and partner store growth rates were 65.5% and 17.4%, respectively [2] Profitability and Costs - The gross margin reached a historical high of 47% in Q4 2024, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Selling, administrative, and financial expense ratios increased to 21.24%, 5.87%, and 0.34%, respectively, due to accelerated direct store expansion [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 20.905 billion, 24.628 billion, and 28.244 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.057 billion, 3.747 billion, and 4.411 billion yuan [4][5] - The estimated P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 13.8, 11.3, and 9.6 times, respectively [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO, reflecting confidence in its growth potential and market position [4][6]. Core Insights - MINISO achieved a revenue of 16.994 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.8%, with an adjusted net profit of 2.721 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 101 million USD, which is approximately 50% of the adjusted net profit for the six months ending December 31, 2024 [1]. - Domestic store expansion continues, with a net increase of 136 stores in Q4 2024, bringing the total to 4,386 stores, although same-store sales showed a decline of 4.62% in Q4 [1]. - Internationally, MINISO's overseas revenue grew by 42.7% year-on-year in Q4 2024, driven by a net increase of 182 stores, with a total of 3,118 overseas stores [2]. Summary by Sections Domestic Performance - In Q4 2024, MINISO's domestic revenue reached 2.297 billion yuan, a 6.5% increase year-on-year, supported by steady store expansion and online sales growth [1]. - The company anticipates stable store openings in 2025, with revenue growth expected from both online business and same-store sales [1]. International Performance - The overseas segment saw a significant revenue increase, with Q4 2024 revenue at 2.132 billion yuan, marking a 42.7% year-on-year growth [2]. - The company operates 3,118 overseas stores, with a focus on direct sales, which showed a growth rate of 65.5% [2]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin reached a record high of 47% in Q4 2024, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The report projects revenues of 20.905 billion yuan, 24.628 billion yuan, and 28.244 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.057 billion yuan, 3.747 billion yuan, and 4.411 billion yuan [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing high growth in overseas direct sales, while domestic same-store performance is expected to improve [1][5] - The overall gross margin reached a historical high of 47.0% in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.1 percentage points [5] - The company plans to open over 1,000 new stores in 2024, accelerating its expansion in overseas markets [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Overall Performance in 2024 - The company's total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 169.94 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.8% [8] - Adjusted net profit is expected to be 27.21 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [8] Direct Sales Market - The revenue share from direct sales continues to expand, contributing to the improvement in gross margin [5] - The company is focusing on optimizing store selection and expanding store sizes to enhance domestic same-store performance [5] TopToy Growth - TopToy's revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 980 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 44.7% [5] - The company plans to expand TopToy's overseas business, with future sales expected to exceed 50% from international markets [5] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 209.8 billion yuan, 254.3 billion yuan, and 303.9 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23%, 21%, and 20% [6] - Adjusted net profit projections for the same years are 31.0 billion yuan, 36.0 billion yuan, and 40.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 16%, and 12% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in overseas direct sales, while domestic same-store performance is expected to improve [5][6] - The overall gross margin reached a new high of 47.0% in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9 percentage points [5] - The company plans to open over 1,000 new stores in 2024, accelerating its overseas market expansion [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Overall Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue reached 169.94 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, with an operating profit of 33.16 billion, up 17.6% year-on-year [8] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was 27.21 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.4% [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 209.8 billion, 254.3 billion, and 303.9 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23%, 21%, and 20% [6] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same years are 31.0 billion, 36.0 billion, and 40.2 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 16%, and 12% [6] Store Expansion and Market Strategy - The company plans to increase its store count to 7,504 by the end of 2024, with 631 new stores opened overseas [8] - TopToy's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 9.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.7%, with significant growth in overseas markets [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.994 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year [2] - Domestic same-store sales faced pressure in the second half of the year, leading to a slowdown in revenue growth, while overseas business maintained high growth [3] - The company opened a net total of 1,219 new stores in 2024, implementing a channel upgrade strategy [4] - The gross margin increased for eight consecutive quarters, reaching 44.94%, while the expense ratio rose due to the expansion of direct-operated stores [5] - The company returned 1.5745 billion yuan to shareholders in 2024, including cash dividends and share buybacks, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 16.994 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 22.8% [2] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was 2.72 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.4% increase compared to the previous year [2] - Revenue growth was driven by overseas MINISO and TOP TOY, which grew by 41.9% and 44.7% respectively, while domestic MINISO saw a growth of 10.9% [3] Store Expansion - The total number of stores reached 7,504 by the end of 2024, with 4,386 in mainland China and 3,118 overseas [4] - The company added 1,219 new stores in 2024, with significant contributions from both domestic and overseas markets [4] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin improved to 44.94%, up 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to higher revenue from high-margin IP products and an increase in overseas business [5] - The sales and distribution expense ratio increased to 21%, reflecting a 5 percentage point rise due to the expansion of direct-operated stores [5] Shareholder Returns - The company returned a total of 1.5745 billion yuan to shareholders in 2024, which included cash dividends of 1.2443 billion yuan and share buybacks of 330.2 million yuan [6] - The year-end dividend payout amounted to 740 million yuan, approximately 50% of the adjusted net profit for the second half of 2024 [6] Future Earnings Forecast - The company expects revenues of 21.1 billion yuan, 24.9 billion yuan, and 28.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 18%, and 14% [7] - The forecasted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 2.94 billion yuan, 3.72 billion yuan, and 4.50 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 26%, and 21% [7]