澜起科技：Q3 剔除股份支付费用的业绩同比高增，互连芯片收入再创新高 | | | 执业证书编号：S0740521120002 Email：wangfang02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740521120001 Email：yangxu01@zts.com.cn 分析师：康丽侠 执业证书编号：S0740525040001 Email：kanglx@zts.com.cn 半导体 | 总股本(百万股) | 1,146.43 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 1,146.43 | | 市价(元) | 133.52 | | 市值(百万元) | 153,070.87 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 153,070.87 | 澜起科技（688008.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2026 年 01 月 06 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lanke Technology, is a leading global player in data processing and interconnect chip design, focusing on high-performance, low-power chip solutions for cloud computing and artificial intelligence [1] Group 1: Product Lines - Lanke Technology has two main product lines: interconnect chips and the Zindai server platform, with a strong position in the memory interface chip industry as one of the top three global DDR5 manufacturers [1] - The interconnect chip product line includes a comprehensive range of products such as memory interface chips (including MRCD/MDB chips, CKD chips), memory module supporting chips, PCIe Retimer chips, MXC chips, and clock chips [2] - The Zindai server platform includes Zindai CPUs, data protection and trusted computing acceleration chips, and hybrid secure memory modules (HSDIMM), providing a secure computing platform for cloud data centers [2] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The company is experiencing significant growth driven by the increasing penetration of DDR5 and the demand for AI-related "capacity" chips, with notable performance from PCIe Retimer, MRCD/MDB, and CKD chips [2] - The MXC chip, recognized as the world's first CXL MXC chip, is applied in memory expansion and pooling, maintaining an industry-leading position and benefiting from high-performance computing and AI demand [2] Group 3: Financial Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 2.4 billion, 3.4 billion, and 4.6 billion yuan, corresponding to current PE valuations of 57, 39, and 29 times [3] - The company has been rated as a "buy" due to its leading position in memory supporting chips and its advanced layout in AI-related capacity chips [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company benefits from the AI industry trend, with continuous product launches contributing to robust growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [3][8] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 54.83 billion, RMB 74.22 billion, and RMB 93.07 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 22.11 billion, RMB 27.65 billion, and RMB 34.38 billion [5][7] Summary by Sections Stock Performance - The company's stock price has shown significant performance, with a year-to-date absolute return of 100.7% and a relative return of 77.8% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 40.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57.83%, and a net profit of RMB 16.32 billion, up 66.89% year-on-year [8] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 61.46%, an increase of 3.34 percentage points year-on-year [8] Product Development - The company continues to lead in the DDR5 memory interface chip market, with sales of the third-generation RCD chip surpassing the second generation for the first time [8] - New products such as the CXL®MXC chip and clock chips are being introduced, with significant orders already in hand [8] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 68.5, 54.8, and 44.1 respectively, indicating a favorable growth outlook [5][10] - The company is expected to maintain a strong EBITDA growth trajectory, with estimates of RMB 2.06 billion, RMB 2.55 billion, and RMB 3.29 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth potential of domestic computing power, emphasizing the importance of not only GPUs but also memory interface chips and high-performance interconnect chips in AI server architecture [4][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - 澜起科技 reported a revenue of 26.33 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 58.17%, with a net profit of 11.59 billion yuan, up 95.41% [6]. - The company’s core products are high-performance interconnect chips for cloud computing and AI, with interconnect chips expected to account for over 90% of total revenue in 2024 [7]. - The DDR5 memory interface chip is projected to capture a global market share of 40%-45%, indicating a strong competitive position [10]. Group 2: Market Trends - The demand for DDR5 memory interface and module chips is expected to rise with the growth of AI server construction, leading to upward revisions in sales forecasts [9]. - The global market for memory interface chips is highly concentrated, with a CR3 exceeding 90%, allowing 澜起科技 to set product standards and maintain pricing power [11]. - The company’s new high-performance interconnect chips, including PCIeRetimer and MRCD/MDB, are anticipated to contribute significantly to future revenue growth [20]. Group 3: Financial Metrics - The company’s inventory turnover rate reached a five-year high of 3.65 times, indicating strong demand and efficient inventory management [20]. - Accounts receivable for the first half of 2025 was 391 million yuan, reflecting healthy sales collection and robust customer demand [21]. - The company plans to raise approximately 1 billion USD through a Hong Kong listing to enhance global competitiveness [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that increased capital expenditure by cloud vendors in the AI sector positively drives the overall demand for related products in the industry [1] - The company’s products, including DDR5 memory interface and module supporting chips, PCIe Retimer chips, MRCD/MDB chips, and MXC chips, are primarily used in data centers and servers [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the increase in industry capital expenditure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the remarkable journey of a Chinese chip company, 澜起科技 (Lianqi Technology), highlighting its strategic pivots and impressive financial performance, particularly in the context of the booming AI market. Group 1: Company Overview - 澜起科技, led by renowned scientist 杨崇和, is recognized as a leader in the IC design industry, having submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after previous listings on NASDAQ and the STAR Market [5][7]. - The company has achieved a market share of 36.8% in the memory interconnect chip sector, positioning itself as a crucial player in AI server infrastructure [5][11]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For 2024, 澜起科技 reported a revenue of 36.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.2%, and a net profit of 14.12 billion yuan, reflecting a staggering growth of 213.1% [10]. - The company anticipates a strong performance for the first half of 2025, with net profits projected to reach between 11 billion to 12 billion yuan, nearing the total profit of the previous year [5][10]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - 澜起科技 has undergone significant strategic transformations, moving from consumer electronics to focusing on data center chips, particularly in response to the rise of cloud computing and AI [7][8]. - The company has pivoted towards high-performance interconnect chips, achieving a revenue of 4.22 billion yuan from these products in 2024, an eightfold increase from 2023 [8]. Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The memory interconnect chip market is projected to grow from $1.2 billion in 2024 to $5 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.4%, driven by the surge in AI server shipments [15]. - 澜起科技's upcoming IPO aims to raise $1 billion to fund advanced research in interconnect chips and enhance global business capabilities, reflecting its commitment to maintaining a competitive edge in the evolving market [14][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the continuous penetration and iteration of DDR5 technology, emphasizing the leading position of the company in the memory interface chip industry and its strategic advancements in high-performance interconnect chips [3][4]. Group 1: DDR5 Technology and Market Position - The penetration rate of DDR5 memory in downstream markets is increasing as mainstream server and client CPU platforms supporting DDR5 are launched [3]. - The company is the leader in the memory interface chip industry and is the main standard setter for DDR5 RCD chips, maintaining a competitive edge in the DDR5 generation [3]. - In 2024, the company's DDR5 memory interface chip shipments are expected to exceed those of DDR4 chips, with the second generation of DDR5 RCD chips already surpassing the first generation in shipments [3]. Group 2: High-Performance Interconnect Chips - The company is actively involved in international standard organizations and industry alliances, developing several high-performance interconnect chips based on new standards [4]. - Key products include: - PCIe Retimer chips for high-speed data transmission in AI servers and active cables [4]. - MRCD/MDB chips for high-bandwidth memory modules to meet the demands of AI and high-performance computing [4]. - CKD chips for client memory modules, essential for maintaining signal integrity at high data rates [4]. - MXC chips for memory expansion and pooling, enhancing memory capacity and bandwidth for data-intensive applications [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.639 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.412 billion yuan, up 213.10% [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.222 billion yuan, reflecting a 65.78% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 525 million yuan, a 135.14% increase [5]. - The sales revenue from three high-performance interconnect chips (PCIe Retimer, MRCD/MDB, and CKD) reached 135 million yuan, marking a 155% year-on-year growth [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook for investment over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company is benefiting from the ongoing AI wave, with significant growth potential as it consolidates its leading position in the DDR5 memory interface chip market [1]. - The company's revenue and profit are experiencing substantial growth, with a projected revenue of 3.639 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 59.20%, and a net profit of 1.412 billion yuan, reflecting a 213.10% increase [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leader in the memory interface chip industry and is actively involved in the development of international standards for DDR5 RCD chips, maintaining its competitive edge as DDR5 technology continues to evolve [1]. Product Development - The company has introduced several high-performance interconnect chips, including PCIe Retimer, MRCD/MDB, CKD, and MXC, which cater to the high bandwidth requirements of AI and high-performance computing applications [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.639 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.412 billion yuan, with significant growth rates projected for the following years [3][4]. - The company’s high-performance chips generated a sales revenue of 135 million yuan in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 155% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 2.224 billion yuan and 3.075 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 3.862 billion yuan [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 41 for 2025, 30 for 2026, and 24 for 2027, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company focuses on high-speed interconnect chips, with computing power chips becoming a new growth engine, achieving significant revenue and profit growth in recent quarters [3][4][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.639 billion yuan (YoY +59%), with interconnect chips and server platforms accounting for 92% and 8% of revenue respectively. The CAGR from 2016 to 2024 was 20% [5][18]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.412 billion yuan (YoY +213%), with a CAGR of 41% from 2016 to 2024 [5][18]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.222 billion yuan (YoY +65.78%, QoQ +14.43%) and a net profit of 525 million yuan (YoY +135.14%, QoQ +21.13%), both setting quarterly records [5][4]. Product Development - The company is one of the top three global manufacturers of DDR5 memory interface chips, leading the second-generation DDR5 iteration, with shipments exceeding DDR4 in 2024 [6][43]. - Three new computing power products, including PCIe Retimer, MRCD/MDB, and CKD, achieved significant revenue growth, totaling approximately 422 million yuan in 2024, an eightfold increase from 2023 [7][23]. - The MXC chip has entered the first batch of compliant suppliers for CXL 2.0, and the company is shifting R&D resources towards PCIe Switch chips [8][83]. Market Trends - The global memory interface chip market is projected to reach $5.7 billion by 2031, with the company being a key player in the DDR5 generation [38]. - The demand for AI servers is expected to drive the usage of PCIe Retimer chips, with the market for PCIe/USB Retimer projected to grow at a CAGR of 46.8% from 2024 to 2032 [76][79]. R&D and Human Resources - The company had 536 R&D personnel by the end of 2024, with a revenue per employee of 5.07 million yuan [25]. - The company is actively involved in the standardization of memory modules through its participation in JEDEC, contributing to the development of DDR5 standards [36][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company focuses on high-speed interconnect chips, with the capacity chips becoming a new growth engine. In 2024, interconnect chips and the server platform accounted for 92% and 8% of revenue, respectively. The company achieved a revenue of 3.639 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59%, and a net profit of 1.412 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 213% [1][11][16] - The company is one of the three major DDR5 memory interface chip manufacturers globally, and it has initiated the second-generation iteration of DDR5. The penetration rate of DDR5 continues to rise, with the company’s DDR5 second-generation RCD chip shipments exceeding the first-generation products in 2024 [2][45] - The company’s MXC chip has entered the first batch of compliant suppliers for CXL 2.0, and the company has decided to shift its R&D focus from AI computing chips to PCIe Switch chips [3][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.639 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 59%. The net profit reached 1.412 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 213%. The revenue and net profit for Q1 2025 were 1.222 billion yuan and 525 million yuan, respectively, both setting quarterly records [1][4][16] - The company’s revenue from 2016 to 2024 has a CAGR of 20%, while the net profit has a CAGR of 41% [11][16] Product Development - The company has launched several high-performance capacity chips, including PCIe Retimer, MRCD/MDB, and CKD, which have generated significant revenue growth. In 2024, these new products generated approximately 422 million yuan, an eightfold increase from 2023 [2][24] - The company is actively involved in the development of DDR5 memory interface chips, with the second-generation RCD chip shipments surpassing the first generation in 2024. The third-generation RCD chip is expected to be shipped in Q4 2024 [2][46] Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading provider of interconnect chips and server platforms, with 92% of its revenue derived from interconnect chips in 2024. The gross margin for interconnect chips was 62.7%, slightly above the international comparable company Rambus [24][22] - The global market for memory interface chips is projected to reach 5.7 billion USD by 2031, with the company being one of the three main suppliers in the DDR5 generation [40]