关税扰动降低，双雄份额提升趋势未改 [Table_Industry] 家用电器业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——黑电行业更新报告 | [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟(分析师) | 曲世强(研究助理) | 谢丛睿(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880521050002 | S0880123070132 | S0880523090004 | 本报告导读： 越南作为对美产能重要基地，视为对美关税谈判风向标，多数国家达成新关税税率 有所降低，关税扰动降低；黑电双雄份额提升趋势未改，全球供应链韧性强。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 行 业 跟 踪 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.11 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：黑电行业正处于需求复苏与技术升级的窗口期，全球产 能布局（尤其墨西哥、越南）是应对关税挑战的核心策略。中国品 牌在高端化和成本控制上的优势，为行业带来韧 ...

报告导读： 越南作为对美产能重要基地，视为对美关税谈判风向标，多数国家达成新关税 税率有所降低，关税扰动降低；黑电双雄份额提升趋势未改，全球供应链韧性强。 投资建议： 黑电行业正处于需求复苏与技术升级的窗口期，全球产能布局（尤其墨西哥、越南）是应对关 税挑战的核心策略。中国品牌在高端化和成本控制上的优势，为行业带来韧性，通过灵活产能调配和产品 升级，有望维持增长动能。越南关税落地，预计对美主要产能基地的关税在10%~40%左右区间博弈，较 市场前期46%以上的悲观预期有好转，不确定性基本消除。 TCL电子、海信视像并称"双雄"，凭借技术、产能优势占据全球份额。 2024年全球电视市场扭转连续下 滑趋势，大尺寸电视（80英寸及以上）出货量显著增长，消费者偏好持续增强。中国品牌TCL和海信在全 球市场份额稳步上升，逐渐缩小与三星的差距，并抢占高端市场份额。同时，显示技术进入升级周期，三 星和LG等韩企转向OLED，而黑电双雄聚焦MiniLED技术，作为LCD的升级延续。MiniLED渗透率在中国 受"国补"政策刺激快速提升，中长期有望带动黑电厂商盈利能力增强。中国品牌通过体育营销提升全球品 牌声量。 本公众订阅号 ...

海信素以技术创新在电视领域独树一帜。2025年，其独创的 RGB-MiniLED技术成为电视画质的革命性突破。该技术通过精细调控，让电视色彩呈现精准无 误，画面鲜艳夺目，动态画面流畅顺滑，色彩还原度极高。以往传统电视常见的色彩偏差问题，在海信RGB-MiniLED技术面前迎刃而解。 近日，海信技术实验室亮相央视《超级生产线》。在 2025 年世俱杯的激情赛场上，海信作为官方合作伙伴，凭借前沿科技，为全球体育爱好者打造了一场 全方位的观赛与生活盛宴，展现出从传统家电制造商向智能生活引领者的华丽转身。 熬夜看球后，高质量睡眠至关重要。海信新风空调化身健康守护者，以双向流换新风技术和超静音设计，重新定义睡眠环境。它不仅能调节室内温度，更能 有效改善空气质量，将清新空气引入室内，排出污浊空气，减少空气中的有害物质。超静音运行模式，让用户在安静舒适的环境中安然入睡，提升深度睡眠 时间，为熬夜看球的球迷们补充精力，守护身体健康。 新鲜的食材让食物更加美味，也意味着不需要在这个炎热的夏天频繁出去采买。海信真空冰箱展现出卓越的创新能力。传统冰箱主要依靠冷冻和冷藏延长食 材保存期，而海信真空冰箱采用真空磁场保鲜技术，有效隔离外 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home appliance industry, indicating an expected return that is stronger than the market benchmark by more than 5% [5][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights that TV panel prices have shown signs of weakening, with expectations for continued decline in the second half of the year. Despite potential weakening in domestic demand for color TVs, the trend of price increases is expected to persist due to the rapid adoption of MiniLED technology, which will drive up the average industry price [3][7]. - Leading color TV manufacturers are anticipated to benefit from structural optimization and the price drop in panels, creating a "scissors effect" that will enhance profit margins in the second half of the year. The report specifically recommends focusing on Hisense Visual (600060, Buy) [3][7]. - The report suggests that the cyclical fluctuations in panel prices are likely to weaken, with mid-term prices expected to stabilize. This is attributed to a shift in manufacturing power from overseas to mainland China, where over 70% of panel shipments originate, and a decrease in the willingness of manufacturers to increase supply significantly [7][11]. Summary by Sections Panel Price Trends - TV panel prices have been declining for two consecutive months, with July prices expected to continue this trend. The average price for a 55-inch TV panel is $124 (down $2 from June), and for a 65-inch panel, it is $174 (also down $2). Year-on-year, the price drop for 55-inch panels has expanded to -4% [7][9]. - The report notes that the domestic subsidy policy is entering a new phase, with demand resilience but reduced momentum. Additionally, the end of the tariff buffer period in July-August may suppress overseas procurement demand [7][9]. MiniLED Technology Impact - The report anticipates that the penetration rate of MiniLED TVs will approach 20% in Q3 2024 and exceed 30% in Q4 2024. The online market share of MiniLED products during the 618 shopping festival reached 41%, a significant increase of 22.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [7][11]. - The concentration of MiniLED TV sales is expected to increase, with leading manufacturers projected to capture significant market shares, enhancing their competitive edge [7][11]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the global retail volume of color TVs is stabilizing around 200 million units, with a slight downward trend. The demand for larger screens is expected to maintain low-speed growth, contributing to a more stable supply-demand relationship in the panel market [7][11].

海信视像 20250703 摘要 海信视像出货量实现双位数增长，国内市场受益于国家补贴，4、5 月份 价格亦有双位数增长。MiniLED 产品占比显著提升，二季度占比超 60%，远高于去年同期的 20%，考虑到 MiniLED 毛利率较非 MiniLED 高 6-10 个百分点，预计二季度利润弹性可期。 海信视像海外市场份额提升及盈利能力改善前景广阔。国内电视市场高 端大屏化领先，海外市场尺寸相对较小，MiniLED 渗透率较低（海外约 10%，国内预期明年较高），欧美及新兴市场仍有份额提升空间。公司 在美做到当地前二，欧洲前三。 海信视像通过赞助世界杯、欧洲杯等赛事，品牌声量和势能不断提升， 预计今明两年欧洲网点覆盖度将进一步提高。尽管定价低于韩系品牌， 但差距正在加速收窄。 海信视像在美国市场完成渠道结构升级，提高 Best Buy、Costco 等中 高端渠道销售占比。墨西哥产能享受关税豁免，相比中国大陆和东南亚 地区具有关税优势，中期来看，海信可能重新获得来自中国本土或东南 亚地区的订单。 Q&A 常值得期待。 海信视像在中长期内的发展前景如何？ 从中长期来看，我们非常看好海信视像在海外市场的份额提升 ...

第三大面板企业将上市。6月30日晚间，深交所官网发布公告显示，惠科股份有限公司（简称"惠科股 份"）IPO申请已正式获得受理。 自2023年首次IPO折戟后，惠科股份业绩回升，2024年营收达超400亿元。惠科股份此次IPO拟募资85亿 元，主要用于扩大和新技术、新产品的研发和创新。 2023年IPO折戟，近两年业绩回升 奥维睿沃总经理陈慧表示，从面板规模的角度来看，惠科在中大尺寸应用的市场增速也较为可观，韩 系、日系厂商逐渐退出LCD市场供应后，惠科产品布局迅速，主流产品的出货规模不断增长，不断地抢 占市场份额。 不过，近期全球头部电视品牌6月大幅下调当月的面板采购量，各家面板厂的出货压力陡增。虽然面板 厂有控产，但是控产力度不足以抵消当前面板需求下降的力度，面板厂需再度检讨控产方案，预计当前 TV面板价格承压下行。 此次IPO拟募资85亿元 惠科股份成立于2001年，专注于半导体显示领域，主营业务为研发、制造和销售半导体显示面板等核心 显示器件及智能显示终端。 主要产品包括多种尺寸和多种类型的TV和IT显示面板、智能电视、显示器及智慧物联终端等，广泛应 用于消费电子、商用显示、汽车电子、工业控制、智慧物联 ...

6月30日是深中通道开通一周年的日子。这座全球首个集"桥、岛、隧、水下互通"为一体的跨海集群工 程，全长约24公里，连接深圳、中山、广州三地，把珠江口黄金三角"一小时生活圈"从蓝图变为现实 ——深圳至中山之间车程从两小时缩短至半小时内，广州南沙至中山仅需15分钟，珠海和江门至深圳从 2小时以上缩短至1小时内。 这条超级通道通车后，持续释放区域交通一体化红利。"你来我往"的"双向奔赴"成为珠江口东西岸居民 日常出行的重要选择，深中通道客流屡次刷新纪录，跨市公交客运量突破300万人次，日均客流量稳定 保持高位。 地处深中通道东岸桥头堡的宝安，何以能立于潮头，从一个湾区节点跃升为驱动"黄金内湾"加速融合的 核心引擎，引领这场奔涌向"新"的时代大潮? 跨市公交客运量突破300万 单日最高超1.7万人次 深中通道开通一年来，跨市公交客运量突破300万人次。 这条跨海通道，正以交通互联为先导，加速推动"1小时经济圈"的深度融合，资金、人才、技术等要素 在大湾区自由涌动，一个更具活力、更具韧性的世界级城市群，正随着交通动脉的澎湃律动拔节生长、 加速崛起。 深中、深广跨市公交的开通，在深刻改变深圳、广州(南沙)之间的出行方式 ...

6月30日，南都记者从江门市城市发展投资集团有限公司（以下简称"江门发展集团"）获悉，截至今年 上半年，江门发展集团总资产规模快速增长至超700亿元，创下新高。江门发展集团主要布局产业园区 开发与运营、房地产及城市更新等六大板块，主体信用评级提升至AAA，为江门首家AAA级国企平 台。 根据江门市国资委官网2025年4月29日信息显示，江门发展集团于2022年9月整合重组，围绕江门市"六 大工程"和"百县千镇万村高质量发展工程"，坚持"一体两翼六大板块"战略，布局产业园区开发与运 营、房地产及城市更新等六大板块。2024年底，总资产达698亿元，营业收入、净利润同比增超10%， 主体信用评级获AAA评级并创全国可比债券最低利率纪录，为江门首家AAA级国企平台。 南都记者注意到，2025年2月11日，江门发展集团召开 2025 年工作会议暨高质量发展推进会，明确提出 2025年以"产业投资"为主业，聚焦"内强管理、外拓市场、深化改革"主线，推动混合所有制改革、数字 化转型及资产整合，围绕总投资307亿元推进34个重点项目，深化"十件大事"，包括人才制度改革、产 业集群打造、农文旅融合等，锚定千亿级国企目标，助力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates that the home appliance industry is experiencing a positive shift in domestic demand, with a focus on the white goods sector, which is expected to benefit from improved pricing strategies and a favorable cost environment [1][2]. Group 1: Home Appliance Industry Overview - The home appliance sector has shown a slight increase of 0.1% from the beginning of the year to June 5, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.6 percentage points, ranking 17th among primary industries [1]. - The overall performance of the home appliance sector has historically shown a high success rate, with 16 out of the past 20 years outperforming the CSI 300 index during the same period [1]. Group 2: White Goods Sector - The white goods sector is expected to see improved domestic demand, with a lower base for shipments and a potential upward trend [2]. - The usage of funds for the old-for-new policy has accelerated in May, although the impact of elastic marginal reduction and funding constraints may be concentrated in Q4 2025 [2]. - Major players in the white goods sector have adopted aggressive online pricing strategies, leading to significant market share elasticity, while the cost environment has improved, suggesting minimal impact on profitability [2]. Group 3: Black Goods Sector - The overall demand for TVs has shown a weak recovery since 2025, with MiniLED backlight TVs becoming a key driver for domestic product upgrades [3]. - Domestic brands like TCL and Hisense have performed strongly, with Hisense rapidly increasing its market share in MiniLED backlight TVs [3]. - The profitability of leading brands is expected to improve due to product structure upgrades and stable panel prices, with an anticipated increase in industry concentration and ongoing technological advancements [3]. Group 4: Emerging Small Appliances - The demand for emerging small appliances, particularly robotic vacuum cleaners, has seen significant growth since 2025, driven by subsidies and product innovation [4]. - Competition in the domestic and international markets is expected to diverge, with companies like Roborock performing well domestically while facing challenges abroad [4]. Group 5: Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen small appliance sector is showing signs of stabilization after a prolonged adjustment, with domestic sales rebounding due to low bases, reduced competition, and new product launches [5]. - The demand for large kitchen appliances is gradually improving, but recovery is still dependent on the real estate market, transitioning from new home-driven demand to replacement-driven demand [5]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home appliance industry, with a focus on high-quality, high-dividend leading companies such as Gree Electric Appliances, Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances [6][7]. - It also highlights the potential of leading TV brands like Hisense Vision and TCL Electronics, as well as emerging consumer brands benefiting from promotional events [7].

Core Viewpoint - The home appliance sector is expected to underperform the CSI 300 index in the first half of 2025 due to tariff increases, fluctuations in the trade-in policy, and high base expectations for the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Home Appliance Sector Overview - As of June 13, 2025, the home appliance sector has seen a year-to-date decline of 3.16%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.37 percentage points [2]. - Key stocks showing positive performance include motorcycle and black appliance companies, such as Taotao Industry, Chunfeng Power, Ninebot, TCL Electronics, and others [2]. Group 2: White Appliance Sector - Demand differentiation between peak and off-peak seasons has increased, with a rapid recovery in Q2 2025 [3]. - China's dominance in global white appliance production remains intact, with short-term external shocks unlikely to alter long-term export growth trends [3]. - Adjustments in local subsidy policies aim to address previous imbalances and funding issues, with limited impact on annual sales expected [3]. - Emerging markets are showing stable economic growth, providing continuous incremental market opportunities for white appliance exports [3]. Group 3: Black Appliance Sector - Domestic and international demand remains robust, with significant structural upgrades towards large-size and MiniLED products [4]. - National subsidies are expected to continue driving domestic demand growth, with rapid increases in MiniLED penetration [4]. - Companies like Hisense and TCL are enhancing their overseas production capabilities, leading to expected growth in shipments and increased market share in the high-end segment [4]. Group 4: Cleaning Appliance Sector - The cleaning appliance category, particularly robotic vacuum cleaners, is benefiting significantly from national subsidies, with high growth expected in 2025 [5]. - The overseas market remains in a favorable cycle, with leading companies expanding their market share [5]. - The shift in consumer perception from optional to essential for cleaning appliances indicates substantial long-term growth potential in the domestic market [5]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in 2025 are primarily focused on the stability of the white appliance industry and the profit improvement potential in black appliances and robotic vacuum cleaners [6].