石油石化 2025 年 11 月 23 日 石油石化周报 俄乌"28 点"和平计划草案披露，油价下行压力加大 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/09 25/11 沪深300 石油石化 基础化工 证券分析师 核心观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 告 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 石油石化：俄乌"28 点"和平计划草案披露，油价下行压力加大。 据 ifind 数据，2025 年 11 月 14 日-2025 年 11 月 21 日，WTI 原油期 货收盘价下跌 3.22%，布伦特油期货价下跌 2.77%。地缘政治方面， 俄乌"28 点"和平 ...

中信建投发布研报称，我国化工品价格已经连续下行4年，反内卷政策/协会自律行动纷纷出台，周期拐 点或渐行渐近。我们认为在供给、需求都有边际改善预期的情况下，关注供给格局改善和内需相关的顺 周期板块。其中，氟化工关注东岳集团等。开源证券认为，随着碳达峰、碳中和战略的持续推进，二代 制冷剂R22即将大规模削减，HFCs有望受益于国家政策实现渗透率快速提升。 消息面上，据钢联数据，R32制冷剂价格高位持稳，R134a制冷剂高位续涨。根据百川盈孚数据，截至 10月31日，R32、R125、R410a、R134a价格较年初分别上涨46.51%、8.33%、27.83%、27.06%。 智通财经APP获悉，东岳集团(00189)盘中涨超8%，截至发稿，涨6.31%，报11.12港元，成交额4.25亿港 元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased, leading to a continued downward trend in oil prices. WTI crude futures fell by 1.00% and Brent crude futures by 1.21% during the period from October 10 to October 17, 2025 [6]. - OPEC's latest monthly market report maintains its global oil demand growth forecast for the next two years, predicting an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [6]. - The domestic oil companies are reducing their sensitivity to oil price fluctuations through upstream and downstream integration and diversifying their oil and gas sources [7]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - Geopolitical tensions have decreased, resulting in a downward trend in oil prices. The easing of risks is reflected in the signing of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and calls for further implementation of the ceasefire by the UN [6]. - The U.S. government is facing a budget impasse, which is impacting economic operations and creating uncertainty regarding fiscal policies [6]. - The report suggests that while short-term oil price risks may persist, the long-term outlook remains anchored by fundamental demand growth [7]. Fluorochemicals - The supply of popular fluorinated refrigerants is tight, leading to continued price increases. R32 refrigerant prices remain high, and R134a prices are also on the rise due to supply constraints and increasing domestic demand [6][7]. - The report highlights that the production of second-generation refrigerants is declining, while third-generation refrigerants have limited quota increases, stabilizing market competition [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor sector is experiencing an upward cycle, supported by improving fundamentals and domestic substitution trends. The report recommends focusing on companies like Nanda Optoelectronics and Shanghai Xinyang [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Views - The Israeli government's approval of the Gaza ceasefire agreement has led to a continued decline in oil prices, with WTI crude futures dropping by 4.15% and Brent crude by 3.53% during the specified period [6]. - Geopolitical tensions remain, particularly with the U.S. halting diplomatic engagement with Venezuela and potential military escalations, which could disrupt Venezuelan oil supplies [6]. - OPEC+ plans a cautious production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November 2025, but Russia advocates for maintaining current production levels to avoid downward pressure on oil prices [6]. - The EIA has raised its short-term price forecasts for WTI to $65 per barrel and Brent to $68.64 per barrel, while also slightly increasing U.S. oil production expectations to 13.53 million barrels per day [6]. - The report highlights a tightening supply in the fluorochemical sector, with prices for popular refrigerants like R32 and R134a remaining stable at high levels due to production constraints and increasing demand from the air conditioning and automotive sectors [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical events on oil prices, noting a significant drop in both WTI and Brent crude prices following the ceasefire agreement [6]. - It tracks OPEC+ production strategies and U.S. oil production forecasts, indicating a cautious approach to increasing supply amidst fluctuating demand [6][7]. Fluorochemicals - The fluorochemical market is experiencing a tight supply for popular refrigerants, with stable high prices due to production limitations and recovering demand in the domestic market [6]. - The report notes a projected increase in production for household air conditioners and automotive refrigerants, driven by government incentives [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the oil and petrochemical sector, particularly on companies with resilient earnings such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [7]. - In the fluorochemical sector, it recommends companies leading in third-generation refrigerant production and upstream fluorite resources [7]. - The semiconductor materials sector is also highlighted, with a positive outlook due to inventory reduction trends and domestic substitution [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The fluorochemical industry is entering a long-term prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across the entire supply chain, from raw materials like fluorite to high-end fluorinated materials and fine chemicals [23] - The market for fluorite is showing a continuous recovery, with prices increasing due to strong demand and limited supply [35][36] - The refrigerant market is expected to maintain an upward trend, driven by the increasing prices of R32 and other refrigerants, as well as the ongoing transition to more environmentally friendly products [21][22] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Industry Overview - The fluorite price has shown a continuous recovery, with the average market price for 97% wet fluorite reaching 3,512 CNY/ton, up 4.09% from the previous week [19][35] - The fluorochemical index decreased by 0.43% during the week of September 22-26, 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [27][30] 2. Fluorite Market - The fluorite market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with increased inquiries and negotiations for new contracts as downstream prices rise [35] - The supply side is tightening due to production limitations and seasonal factors, leading to a bullish market sentiment [36] 3. Refrigerant Market - As of September 26, 2025, the prices for various refrigerants are as follows: R32 at 62,500 CNY/ton, R125 at 45,500 CNY/ton, R134a at 52,000 CNY/ton, R410a at 52,500 CNY/ton, and R22 at 34,500 CNY/ton [21][24] - The export quota for R32 has been progressing well, with a 62% consumption rate, benefiting from the release of overseas production capacity by domestic air conditioning companies [22] 4. Recent Industry Developments - Major companies such as Juhua Co. have received environmental assessments for new projects, indicating ongoing investment in the fluorochemical sector [10] - India has initiated anti-dumping investigations against Chinese HFC refrigerants, which may impact market dynamics [10][11] 5. Recommended Stocks - Key stocks to watch include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Xinjubang [11][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The fluorochemical industry is entering a long-term prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across various segments, including refrigerants and high-end fluorinated materials [23][24] - The market for fluorochemicals is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with strong price support and a bullish sentiment among industry players [22][24] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The fluorochemical index increased by 7.45% during the week of August 11-15, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.75% [6][27] - The average price of 97% wet fluorite reached 3,207 CNY/ton, up 1.33% from the previous week, while the average for August was 3,175 CNY/ton, down 10.52% year-on-year [19][35] Fluorite Market - The fluorite market is experiencing a price rebound, supported by tight supply and a strong buying sentiment, although transaction volumes are slowing [20][36] - Regional price variations exist, with southern markets showing stronger price increases compared to the north, where trading activity is more cautious [20][36] Refrigerant Market - As of August 15, prices for various refrigerants showed upward trends, with R32 priced at 57,500 CNY/ton, R134a at 51,000 CNY/ton, and R22 at 35,500 CNY/ton [21][25] - The refrigerant market is expected to maintain its upward price trajectory due to seasonal demand and supply constraints, with a shift towards essential purchasing expected in the future [22][24] Company Performance - Notable companies such as Dongyangguang and Yonghe Co. reported significant revenue growth in their 2025 H1 financial results, with Dongyangguang achieving a revenue of 7.124 billion CNY, up 18.48% year-on-year [10] - The stock performance of fluorochemical companies has been strong, with all tracked stocks in the sector rising during the week, led by Zhongxin Fluorine Materials with a 19.11% increase [29][34] Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., and Dongyue Group [11][24]

Core Viewpoint - The refrigerant market is expected to maintain high demand as the new cooling year approaches, despite a decrease in air conditioning production since July. The overall sales performance remains strong, indicating a potential uplift in refrigerant demand [1][4]. Group 1: Refrigerant Production and Policy - In the first half of 2025, the production of refrigerants R32, R134a, and R125 reached 138,000 tons, 76,000 tons, and 57,000 tons respectively, accounting for approximately 49%, 37%, and 34% of the annual quota [2]. - The export volumes for R32 and R134a in the same period were 40,000 tons and 50,000 tons, representing about 41% and 39% of their respective annual export quotas [2]. - The supply-demand environment for refrigerants in 2025 is relatively balanced, with some varieties being relatively abundant, reducing the necessity for quota increases. The policy regarding refrigerant quotas is expected to remain stable through mid-2026 [2]. Group 2: Refrigerant Pricing Trends - Despite a decline in air conditioning production since July, refrigerant prices continue to rise. The latest corporate quotation for R32 is nearing 60,000 yuan per ton [3]. - The pricing power for refrigerants has shifted from the demand side to the supply side, indicating that the seasonal decline in air conditioning demand does not dominate refrigerant price trends [3]. - Internationally, the price of R32 in Europe approached 20,000 euros per ton in the fourth quarter of 2024, suggesting that there is still significant upward potential for domestic refrigerant prices [3]. Group 3: Air Conditioning Market Performance - As the new cooling year approaches in late August 2025, the retail sales of air conditioning units have shown strong growth. Offline retail sales increased by 19.63% year-on-year, while online sales surged by 26.17% [4]. - The retail volume for air conditioning units also saw a year-on-year increase of 16.15% offline and 30.28% online, with certain regions experiencing stock shortages [4]. - Given the current sales dynamics, air conditioning production is expected to remain high, which will likely boost refrigerant demand [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Following the release of refrigerant companies' performance in the first half of 2025, the sector's valuation has seen a decline. Concerns remain regarding the stability of the policy environment and the potential impact on future refrigerant demand [5]. - The expectation of stable policies in 2025 and 2026, along with the continued rise in refrigerant prices during the off-season, suggests that market expectations may gradually improve, leading to a potential recovery in sector valuations [5]. - Companies in the refrigerant supply chain, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SH), Dongyue Group (00189), and others, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their expected valuation increases [5].