石油石化 2025 年 11 月 23 日 石油石化周报 俄乌"28 点"和平计划草案披露，油价下行压力加大 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/09 25/11 沪深300 石油石化 基础化工 证券分析师 核心观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 告 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 石油石化：俄乌"28 点"和平计划草案披露，油价下行压力加大。 据 ifind 数据，2025 年 11 月 14 日-2025 年 11 月 21 日，WTI 原油期 货收盘价下跌 3.22%，布伦特油期货价下跌 2.77%。地缘政治方面， 俄乌"28 点"和平 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the official announcement of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full closure operation starting on December 18, 2025, with tax incentives for encouraged industries [2] - Key sectors to focus on include cultural tourism, transportation, infrastructure construction, biomedicine, mineral energy, and agriculture under the new policy framework [2] - The report discusses the ongoing trends in various industries, including the rise of AI, semiconductor advancements, and the introduction of new robotics products [2][23] Group 2 - The report indicates that the total assets of existing amortized bond funds reached approximately 2.06 trillion yuan, with net assets of about 1.48 trillion yuan as of the end of Q3 2025 [4] - It is expected that over 200 billion yuan of amortized bond funds will enter the open period by the end of this year, potentially bringing an incremental allocation of 100-300 billion yuan to credit bonds [4][25] - The report notes a significant increase in the allocation of credit bonds by amortized bond funds, with the proportion expected to rise to 75% by Q3 2025 [4][26] Group 3 - The report outlines the distribution plan for refrigerants in 2026, indicating that the industry will maintain a tight balance despite adjustments in quotas [5][7] - It mentions that the total quota adjustment for HFCs in 2025 will allow for an increase in production quotas for various refrigerants, including R32 [5][7] - The report emphasizes that the market is concerned about potential increases in single product quotas, but companies are likely to consider market supply and demand comprehensively [7] Group 4 - The report discusses the recovery of the aviation and shipping sectors, with inbound tourism expected to drive airport profitability and shipping volumes increasing significantly [8] - It highlights the potential for price increases in highway tolls, with some regions planning to raise rates by over 30% [8] - The report also notes the positive trends in the logistics sector, with expectations for price increases and improved profitability due to reduced competition [8] Group 5 - The report presents the financial performance of Weicai Technology, showing a revenue increase of 44.40% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with net profit rising by 98.11% [10][33] - It indicates that the company's high-end business now accounts for 75% of its revenue, contributing to a gross margin increase to 44.59% [10][34] - The report suggests that the company is focusing on expanding its testing capacity and optimizing its business structure to sustain high-quality growth [10][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased, leading to a continued downward trend in oil prices. WTI crude futures fell by 1.00% and Brent crude futures by 1.21% during the period from October 10 to October 17, 2025 [6]. - OPEC's latest monthly market report maintains its global oil demand growth forecast for the next two years, predicting an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [6]. - The domestic oil companies are reducing their sensitivity to oil price fluctuations through upstream and downstream integration and diversifying their oil and gas sources [7]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - Geopolitical tensions have decreased, resulting in a downward trend in oil prices. The easing of risks is reflected in the signing of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and calls for further implementation of the ceasefire by the UN [6]. - The U.S. government is facing a budget impasse, which is impacting economic operations and creating uncertainty regarding fiscal policies [6]. - The report suggests that while short-term oil price risks may persist, the long-term outlook remains anchored by fundamental demand growth [7]. Fluorochemicals - The supply of popular fluorinated refrigerants is tight, leading to continued price increases. R32 refrigerant prices remain high, and R134a prices are also on the rise due to supply constraints and increasing domestic demand [6][7]. - The report highlights that the production of second-generation refrigerants is declining, while third-generation refrigerants have limited quota increases, stabilizing market competition [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor sector is experiencing an upward cycle, supported by improving fundamentals and domestic substitution trends. The report recommends focusing on companies like Nanda Optoelectronics and Shanghai Xinyang [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Views - The Israeli government's approval of the Gaza ceasefire agreement has led to a continued decline in oil prices, with WTI crude futures dropping by 4.15% and Brent crude by 3.53% during the specified period [6]. - Geopolitical tensions remain, particularly with the U.S. halting diplomatic engagement with Venezuela and potential military escalations, which could disrupt Venezuelan oil supplies [6]. - OPEC+ plans a cautious production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November 2025, but Russia advocates for maintaining current production levels to avoid downward pressure on oil prices [6]. - The EIA has raised its short-term price forecasts for WTI to $65 per barrel and Brent to $68.64 per barrel, while also slightly increasing U.S. oil production expectations to 13.53 million barrels per day [6]. - The report highlights a tightening supply in the fluorochemical sector, with prices for popular refrigerants like R32 and R134a remaining stable at high levels due to production constraints and increasing demand from the air conditioning and automotive sectors [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical events on oil prices, noting a significant drop in both WTI and Brent crude prices following the ceasefire agreement [6]. - It tracks OPEC+ production strategies and U.S. oil production forecasts, indicating a cautious approach to increasing supply amidst fluctuating demand [6][7]. Fluorochemicals - The fluorochemical market is experiencing a tight supply for popular refrigerants, with stable high prices due to production limitations and recovering demand in the domestic market [6]. - The report notes a projected increase in production for household air conditioners and automotive refrigerants, driven by government incentives [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the oil and petrochemical sector, particularly on companies with resilient earnings such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [7]. - In the fluorochemical sector, it recommends companies leading in third-generation refrigerant production and upstream fluorite resources [7]. - The semiconductor materials sector is also highlighted, with a positive outlook due to inventory reduction trends and domestic substitution [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The fluorochemical industry is entering a long-term prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across the entire supply chain, from raw materials like fluorite to high-end fluorinated materials and fine chemicals [23] - The market for fluorite is showing a continuous recovery, with prices increasing due to strong demand and limited supply [35][36] - The refrigerant market is expected to maintain an upward trend, driven by the increasing prices of R32 and other refrigerants, as well as the ongoing transition to more environmentally friendly products [21][22] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Industry Overview - The fluorite price has shown a continuous recovery, with the average market price for 97% wet fluorite reaching 3,512 CNY/ton, up 4.09% from the previous week [19][35] - The fluorochemical index decreased by 0.43% during the week of September 22-26, 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [27][30] 2. Fluorite Market - The fluorite market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with increased inquiries and negotiations for new contracts as downstream prices rise [35] - The supply side is tightening due to production limitations and seasonal factors, leading to a bullish market sentiment [36] 3. Refrigerant Market - As of September 26, 2025, the prices for various refrigerants are as follows: R32 at 62,500 CNY/ton, R125 at 45,500 CNY/ton, R134a at 52,000 CNY/ton, R410a at 52,500 CNY/ton, and R22 at 34,500 CNY/ton [21][24] - The export quota for R32 has been progressing well, with a 62% consumption rate, benefiting from the release of overseas production capacity by domestic air conditioning companies [22] 4. Recent Industry Developments - Major companies such as Juhua Co. have received environmental assessments for new projects, indicating ongoing investment in the fluorochemical sector [10] - India has initiated anti-dumping investigations against Chinese HFC refrigerants, which may impact market dynamics [10][11] 5. Recommended Stocks - Key stocks to watch include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Xinjubang [11][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The fluorochemical industry is entering a long-term prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across various segments, including refrigerants and high-end fluorinated materials [23][24] - The market for fluorochemicals is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with strong price support and a bullish sentiment among industry players [22][24] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The fluorochemical index increased by 7.45% during the week of August 11-15, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.75% [6][27] - The average price of 97% wet fluorite reached 3,207 CNY/ton, up 1.33% from the previous week, while the average for August was 3,175 CNY/ton, down 10.52% year-on-year [19][35] Fluorite Market - The fluorite market is experiencing a price rebound, supported by tight supply and a strong buying sentiment, although transaction volumes are slowing [20][36] - Regional price variations exist, with southern markets showing stronger price increases compared to the north, where trading activity is more cautious [20][36] Refrigerant Market - As of August 15, prices for various refrigerants showed upward trends, with R32 priced at 57,500 CNY/ton, R134a at 51,000 CNY/ton, and R22 at 35,500 CNY/ton [21][25] - The refrigerant market is expected to maintain its upward price trajectory due to seasonal demand and supply constraints, with a shift towards essential purchasing expected in the future [22][24] Company Performance - Notable companies such as Dongyangguang and Yonghe Co. reported significant revenue growth in their 2025 H1 financial results, with Dongyangguang achieving a revenue of 7.124 billion CNY, up 18.48% year-on-year [10] - The stock performance of fluorochemical companies has been strong, with all tracked stocks in the sector rising during the week, led by Zhongxin Fluorine Materials with a 19.11% increase [29][34] Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., and Dongyue Group [11][24]

Core Insights - Dongyangguang achieved a revenue of 7.124 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 613 million yuan, up 170.57% [1] Business Performance - The main business segments of Dongyangguang include electronic components, high-end aluminum foil, chemical new materials, energy materials, and liquid cooling technology [2] - In the electronic components segment, revenue reached 1.810 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.91% [2] - The high-end aluminum foil segment generated 2.907 billion yuan in revenue, growing by 9.20% year-on-year [2] - The chemical new materials segment saw revenue of 1.968 billion yuan, marking a significant growth of 47.59% [2] - Revenue from energy materials and other businesses was 18.6 million yuan and 6.552 million yuan, respectively [2] - The growth in electronic components is attributed to the booming data center and energy storage industries, with steady capacity release and cost structure optimization [2] Strategic Initiatives - Dongyangguang established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Guangdong Dongyangguang Supercapacitor Technology Co., Ltd., focusing on the development of supercapacitor and hybrid capacitor technologies [2] - The company has signed supply orders for megawatt-level supercapacitor energy storage systems for power frequency regulation [2] - Dongyangguang is also investing in advanced applications such as grid-side SVG, self-healing technology, flexible DC transmission, and AI data center server power [2] Emerging Business Expansion - Dongyangguang is actively expanding into liquid cooling and embodied intelligence sectors [3] - The price of refrigerants has surged, significantly benefiting the company, particularly with the core product R32 refrigerant, which increased from 17,000-18,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of 2024 to 57,000-59,000 yuan per ton in the first half of this year [3] - The company has launched core products such as 1.4MW CDU and liquid cooling plates, continuously enhancing its product matrix [3] Embodied Intelligence Development - Dongyangguang has partnered with Shanghai Zhiyuan New Technology Co., Ltd. and Wuhan Artificial Intelligence Research Institute to establish Hubei Guanggu Dongzhi Embodied Intelligence Technology Co., Ltd. [4] - The company aims to create a robust robot data collection center, facilitating the application of robots in various industries [4] - The first humanoid robot "Photon" was launched, marking a significant step from laboratory to industry application, with initial orders received from commercial services, government, and education sectors [4] - The Hubei factory of Guanggu Dongzhi has been completed, with an annual production capacity of 300 units [4]

Group 1 - Dongyue Group (00189) saw a stock price increase of over 3%, reaching HKD 11.79 with a trading volume of HKD 81.084 million [1] - CICC's report indicates that despite a year-on-year decline in air conditioning production since July, refrigerant prices continue to rise, with the latest R32 price approaching CNY 60,000 per ton [1] - The pricing power of refrigerants has shifted from the demand side to the supply side, as the air conditioning demand enters a seasonal production lull, which does not dominate refrigerant price trends [1] Group 2 - As of mid-July, the offline retail sales of air conditioners in the domestic market increased by 19.63% year-on-year, while online retail sales grew by 26.17% [1] - The retail volume for offline and online platforms also saw significant increases of 16.15% and 30.28% year-on-year, respectively [1] - There have been reports of stock shortages in markets such as Northeast and Northwest China, while sales in East and Central China remain optimistic [1] Group 3 - With the new cooling season approaching at the end of August, despite a decrease in air conditioning production since July, terminal consumption is expected to remain high, leading to sustained high production levels and increased demand for refrigerants [1]

Core Viewpoint - The refrigerant market is expected to maintain high demand as the new cooling year approaches, despite a decrease in air conditioning production since July. The overall sales performance remains strong, indicating a potential uplift in refrigerant demand [1][4]. Group 1: Refrigerant Production and Policy - In the first half of 2025, the production of refrigerants R32, R134a, and R125 reached 138,000 tons, 76,000 tons, and 57,000 tons respectively, accounting for approximately 49%, 37%, and 34% of the annual quota [2]. - The export volumes for R32 and R134a in the same period were 40,000 tons and 50,000 tons, representing about 41% and 39% of their respective annual export quotas [2]. - The supply-demand environment for refrigerants in 2025 is relatively balanced, with some varieties being relatively abundant, reducing the necessity for quota increases. The policy regarding refrigerant quotas is expected to remain stable through mid-2026 [2]. Group 2: Refrigerant Pricing Trends - Despite a decline in air conditioning production since July, refrigerant prices continue to rise. The latest corporate quotation for R32 is nearing 60,000 yuan per ton [3]. - The pricing power for refrigerants has shifted from the demand side to the supply side, indicating that the seasonal decline in air conditioning demand does not dominate refrigerant price trends [3]. - Internationally, the price of R32 in Europe approached 20,000 euros per ton in the fourth quarter of 2024, suggesting that there is still significant upward potential for domestic refrigerant prices [3]. Group 3: Air Conditioning Market Performance - As the new cooling year approaches in late August 2025, the retail sales of air conditioning units have shown strong growth. Offline retail sales increased by 19.63% year-on-year, while online sales surged by 26.17% [4]. - The retail volume for air conditioning units also saw a year-on-year increase of 16.15% offline and 30.28% online, with certain regions experiencing stock shortages [4]. - Given the current sales dynamics, air conditioning production is expected to remain high, which will likely boost refrigerant demand [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Following the release of refrigerant companies' performance in the first half of 2025, the sector's valuation has seen a decline. Concerns remain regarding the stability of the policy environment and the potential impact on future refrigerant demand [5]. - The expectation of stable policies in 2025 and 2026, along with the continued rise in refrigerant prices during the off-season, suggests that market expectations may gradually improve, leading to a potential recovery in sector valuations [5]. - Companies in the refrigerant supply chain, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SH), Dongyue Group (00189), and others, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their expected valuation increases [5].

Company Overview - IFBH is a Thai beverage company founded in 2013, focusing on the Greater China market with its brands if and Innococo, targeting different market needs [2] - The company has a significant market presence, with 92.4% of sales from mainland China, 4.6% from Hong Kong, and 3.0% from other regions [2] Industry Insights - The coconut water beverage industry is experiencing strong growth globally, particularly in the Greater China region, which leads the world in growth rates [5] - The global coconut water beverage market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.7% from 2019 to 2024, and 11.1% from 2024 to 2029 [5] - In 2024, China's retail sales of coconut water beverages are expected to account for 21.9% of the global total, with the Greater China region showing a CAGR of 60.8% from 2019 to 2024 [5] Market Position - IFBH has maintained the leading market share in mainland China for five consecutive years, reaching 34% in 2024, significantly surpassing its closest competitor [5] - The company also leads the Hong Kong market with a 60% share and ranks second globally with a 7.5% market share [5] - In 2024, IFBH's retail sales growth rate was the highest among the top five coconut water beverage companies globally and in China, at 81% [5] Business Strategy - IFBH employs a light-asset model, focusing on supply chain management and outsourcing production to ensure product quality while minimizing costs [6] - The company plans to expand its global footprint, targeting markets in Australia, the Americas, and Southeast Asia, while introducing innovative products like sparkling coconut water and coconut coffee [6] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for IFBH from 2025 to 2027 are $212 million, $275 million, and $344 million, representing year-on-year growth rates of 34.52%, 29.66%, and 24.96% respectively [7] - Net profit projections for the same period are $44 million, $57 million, and $71 million, with growth rates of 31.73%, 29.16%, and 25.23% [7] - The price-to-earnings ratios for 2025 are projected at 30.42, 23.55, and 18.81 for the subsequent years [8]