Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The fluorochemical industry is entering a long-term prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across the entire supply chain, from raw materials like fluorite to high-end fluorinated materials and fine chemicals [23] - The market for fluorite is showing a continuous recovery, with prices increasing due to strong demand and limited supply [35][36] - The refrigerant market is expected to maintain an upward trend, driven by the increasing prices of R32 and other refrigerants, as well as the ongoing transition to more environmentally friendly products [21][22] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Industry Overview - The fluorite price has shown a continuous recovery, with the average market price for 97% wet fluorite reaching 3,512 CNY/ton, up 4.09% from the previous week [19][35] - The fluorochemical index decreased by 0.43% during the week of September 22-26, 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [27][30] 2. Fluorite Market - The fluorite market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with increased inquiries and negotiations for new contracts as downstream prices rise [35] - The supply side is tightening due to production limitations and seasonal factors, leading to a bullish market sentiment [36] 3. Refrigerant Market - As of September 26, 2025, the prices for various refrigerants are as follows: R32 at 62,500 CNY/ton, R125 at 45,500 CNY/ton, R134a at 52,000 CNY/ton, R410a at 52,500 CNY/ton, and R22 at 34,500 CNY/ton [21][24] - The export quota for R32 has been progressing well, with a 62% consumption rate, benefiting from the release of overseas production capacity by domestic air conditioning companies [22] 4. Recent Industry Developments - Major companies such as Juhua Co. have received environmental assessments for new projects, indicating ongoing investment in the fluorochemical sector [10] - India has initiated anti-dumping investigations against Chinese HFC refrigerants, which may impact market dynamics [10][11] 5. Recommended Stocks - Key stocks to watch include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Xinjubang [11][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The fluorochemical industry is entering a long-term prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across various segments, including refrigerants and high-end fluorinated materials [23][24] - The market for fluorochemicals is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with strong price support and a bullish sentiment among industry players [22][24] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The fluorochemical index increased by 7.45% during the week of August 11-15, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.75% [6][27] - The average price of 97% wet fluorite reached 3,207 CNY/ton, up 1.33% from the previous week, while the average for August was 3,175 CNY/ton, down 10.52% year-on-year [19][35] Fluorite Market - The fluorite market is experiencing a price rebound, supported by tight supply and a strong buying sentiment, although transaction volumes are slowing [20][36] - Regional price variations exist, with southern markets showing stronger price increases compared to the north, where trading activity is more cautious [20][36] Refrigerant Market - As of August 15, prices for various refrigerants showed upward trends, with R32 priced at 57,500 CNY/ton, R134a at 51,000 CNY/ton, and R22 at 35,500 CNY/ton [21][25] - The refrigerant market is expected to maintain its upward price trajectory due to seasonal demand and supply constraints, with a shift towards essential purchasing expected in the future [22][24] Company Performance - Notable companies such as Dongyangguang and Yonghe Co. reported significant revenue growth in their 2025 H1 financial results, with Dongyangguang achieving a revenue of 7.124 billion CNY, up 18.48% year-on-year [10] - The stock performance of fluorochemical companies has been strong, with all tracked stocks in the sector rising during the week, led by Zhongxin Fluorine Materials with a 19.11% increase [29][34] Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., and Dongyue Group [11][24]

Core Insights - Dongyangguang achieved a revenue of 7.124 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 613 million yuan, up 170.57% [1] Business Performance - The main business segments of Dongyangguang include electronic components, high-end aluminum foil, chemical new materials, energy materials, and liquid cooling technology [2] - In the electronic components segment, revenue reached 1.810 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.91% [2] - The high-end aluminum foil segment generated 2.907 billion yuan in revenue, growing by 9.20% year-on-year [2] - The chemical new materials segment saw revenue of 1.968 billion yuan, marking a significant growth of 47.59% [2] - Revenue from energy materials and other businesses was 18.6 million yuan and 6.552 million yuan, respectively [2] - The growth in electronic components is attributed to the booming data center and energy storage industries, with steady capacity release and cost structure optimization [2] Strategic Initiatives - Dongyangguang established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Guangdong Dongyangguang Supercapacitor Technology Co., Ltd., focusing on the development of supercapacitor and hybrid capacitor technologies [2] - The company has signed supply orders for megawatt-level supercapacitor energy storage systems for power frequency regulation [2] - Dongyangguang is also investing in advanced applications such as grid-side SVG, self-healing technology, flexible DC transmission, and AI data center server power [2] Emerging Business Expansion - Dongyangguang is actively expanding into liquid cooling and embodied intelligence sectors [3] - The price of refrigerants has surged, significantly benefiting the company, particularly with the core product R32 refrigerant, which increased from 17,000-18,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of 2024 to 57,000-59,000 yuan per ton in the first half of this year [3] - The company has launched core products such as 1.4MW CDU and liquid cooling plates, continuously enhancing its product matrix [3] Embodied Intelligence Development - Dongyangguang has partnered with Shanghai Zhiyuan New Technology Co., Ltd. and Wuhan Artificial Intelligence Research Institute to establish Hubei Guanggu Dongzhi Embodied Intelligence Technology Co., Ltd. [4] - The company aims to create a robust robot data collection center, facilitating the application of robots in various industries [4] - The first humanoid robot "Photon" was launched, marking a significant step from laboratory to industry application, with initial orders received from commercial services, government, and education sectors [4] - The Hubei factory of Guanggu Dongzhi has been completed, with an annual production capacity of 300 units [4]

Group 1 - Dongyue Group (00189) saw a stock price increase of over 3%, reaching HKD 11.79 with a trading volume of HKD 81.084 million [1] - CICC's report indicates that despite a year-on-year decline in air conditioning production since July, refrigerant prices continue to rise, with the latest R32 price approaching CNY 60,000 per ton [1] - The pricing power of refrigerants has shifted from the demand side to the supply side, as the air conditioning demand enters a seasonal production lull, which does not dominate refrigerant price trends [1] Group 2 - As of mid-July, the offline retail sales of air conditioners in the domestic market increased by 19.63% year-on-year, while online retail sales grew by 26.17% [1] - The retail volume for offline and online platforms also saw significant increases of 16.15% and 30.28% year-on-year, respectively [1] - There have been reports of stock shortages in markets such as Northeast and Northwest China, while sales in East and Central China remain optimistic [1] Group 3 - With the new cooling season approaching at the end of August, despite a decrease in air conditioning production since July, terminal consumption is expected to remain high, leading to sustained high production levels and increased demand for refrigerants [1]

Core Viewpoint - The refrigerant market is expected to maintain high demand as the new cooling year approaches, despite a decrease in air conditioning production since July. The overall sales performance remains strong, indicating a potential uplift in refrigerant demand [1][4]. Group 1: Refrigerant Production and Policy - In the first half of 2025, the production of refrigerants R32, R134a, and R125 reached 138,000 tons, 76,000 tons, and 57,000 tons respectively, accounting for approximately 49%, 37%, and 34% of the annual quota [2]. - The export volumes for R32 and R134a in the same period were 40,000 tons and 50,000 tons, representing about 41% and 39% of their respective annual export quotas [2]. - The supply-demand environment for refrigerants in 2025 is relatively balanced, with some varieties being relatively abundant, reducing the necessity for quota increases. The policy regarding refrigerant quotas is expected to remain stable through mid-2026 [2]. Group 2: Refrigerant Pricing Trends - Despite a decline in air conditioning production since July, refrigerant prices continue to rise. The latest corporate quotation for R32 is nearing 60,000 yuan per ton [3]. - The pricing power for refrigerants has shifted from the demand side to the supply side, indicating that the seasonal decline in air conditioning demand does not dominate refrigerant price trends [3]. - Internationally, the price of R32 in Europe approached 20,000 euros per ton in the fourth quarter of 2024, suggesting that there is still significant upward potential for domestic refrigerant prices [3]. Group 3: Air Conditioning Market Performance - As the new cooling year approaches in late August 2025, the retail sales of air conditioning units have shown strong growth. Offline retail sales increased by 19.63% year-on-year, while online sales surged by 26.17% [4]. - The retail volume for air conditioning units also saw a year-on-year increase of 16.15% offline and 30.28% online, with certain regions experiencing stock shortages [4]. - Given the current sales dynamics, air conditioning production is expected to remain high, which will likely boost refrigerant demand [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Following the release of refrigerant companies' performance in the first half of 2025, the sector's valuation has seen a decline. Concerns remain regarding the stability of the policy environment and the potential impact on future refrigerant demand [5]. - The expectation of stable policies in 2025 and 2026, along with the continued rise in refrigerant prices during the off-season, suggests that market expectations may gradually improve, leading to a potential recovery in sector valuations [5]. - Companies in the refrigerant supply chain, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SH), Dongyue Group (00189), and others, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their expected valuation increases [5].

Company Overview - IFBH is a Thai beverage company founded in 2013, focusing on the Greater China market with its brands if and Innococo, targeting different market needs [2] - The company has a significant market presence, with 92.4% of sales from mainland China, 4.6% from Hong Kong, and 3.0% from other regions [2] Industry Insights - The coconut water beverage industry is experiencing strong growth globally, particularly in the Greater China region, which leads the world in growth rates [5] - The global coconut water beverage market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.7% from 2019 to 2024, and 11.1% from 2024 to 2029 [5] - In 2024, China's retail sales of coconut water beverages are expected to account for 21.9% of the global total, with the Greater China region showing a CAGR of 60.8% from 2019 to 2024 [5] Market Position - IFBH has maintained the leading market share in mainland China for five consecutive years, reaching 34% in 2024, significantly surpassing its closest competitor [5] - The company also leads the Hong Kong market with a 60% share and ranks second globally with a 7.5% market share [5] - In 2024, IFBH's retail sales growth rate was the highest among the top five coconut water beverage companies globally and in China, at 81% [5] Business Strategy - IFBH employs a light-asset model, focusing on supply chain management and outsourcing production to ensure product quality while minimizing costs [6] - The company plans to expand its global footprint, targeting markets in Australia, the Americas, and Southeast Asia, while introducing innovative products like sparkling coconut water and coconut coffee [6] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for IFBH from 2025 to 2027 are $212 million, $275 million, and $344 million, representing year-on-year growth rates of 34.52%, 29.66%, and 24.96% respectively [7] - Net profit projections for the same period are $44 million, $57 million, and $71 million, with growth rates of 31.73%, 29.16%, and 25.23% [7] - The price-to-earnings ratios for 2025 are projected at 30.42, 23.55, and 18.81 for the subsequent years [8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.21%, down 49 points, closing at 23,857 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.59% [1] - The early trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 102.1 billion [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector showed strong performance, with institutions optimistic about sustained profitability; Luoyang Molybdenum Co. rose by 4% and Jiangxi Copper Co. increased by 3.11% [1] - The three major telecom operators in Hong Kong experienced gains, with China Unicom, China Mobile, and China Telecom all rising over 2% [1] Notable Stock Movements - China Silver Group surged over 23%, with spot silver prices reaching nearly USD 36, marking a 13-year high [1] - Longpan Technology saw a rise of 3.35% after signing a large order for 150,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, indicating a boost in solid-state battery production [1] - Dongyue Group increased by 1.54% as prices for third-generation refrigerants continued to rise, positioning the company as a leader in R22 and R32 quotas [1] - Youjia Innovation rose by 7% after securing a key model for a new energy brand under Changan Automobile [1] - Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group increased by 4.27% after obtaining production registration for calcium gluconate and sodium chloride injection [1] - Zhongxu Future surged over 11% as the issuance of domestic game licenses reached a new high, with multiple new titles planned for release within the year [1] Company-Specific Challenges - Dongfeng Group's stock fell over 3% amid clarification from its controlling shareholder that there are no current restructuring plans, with a reported 17.1% year-on-year decline in vehicle sales for the first five months [2] - Alibaba Health dropped by 3.46% as its profits for the fiscal year 2025 fell short of expectations, with UBS suggesting the company may struggle to maintain its current valuation [3] - The automotive sector faced renewed declines, with analysts predicting an unavoidable new round of price wars, leading to a trend of increased revenue without profit growth; XPeng Motors fell by 2.9% and Li Auto decreased by 1.46% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry investment strategy for May 2025 highlights a positive economic outlook driven by proactive fiscal policies and increased domestic consumption confidence, alongside a growing global interest in China's artificial intelligence sector [1][2]. Economic Overview - Since late September 2024, a series of domestic policies have been implemented, leading to a noticeable effect on the economy. In 2024, China's GDP reached 134.9 trillion RMB, marking a 5% increase from the previous year [2]. - In Q1 2025, China's GDP at current prices was 31,875.8 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% at constant prices, indicating steady economic growth [2]. Policy Environment - The Central Political Bureau meeting on April 25 emphasized the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies in response to escalating US-China trade tensions and external uncertainties. The focus will be on expanding consumption and boosting domestic demand [2]. Industry Performance - In April 2025, the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing production index fell to 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [3]. - Despite a drop in international oil prices by over 15% in April due to increased production by OPEC and trade tensions, the expected price range for Brent crude is projected to be between $65-70 per barrel and WTI at $60-65 per barrel for 2025 [3]. Investment Recommendations - Key investment areas for May 2025 include potassium fertilizers, refrigerants, aramid paper, civil explosives, and pentaerythritol, with specific companies recommended for each sector: - **Potassium Fertilizers**: Global prices are rebounding, and there is a domestic demand gap. Recommended company: **Yaqi International** [4]. - **Refrigerants**: The market outlook is positive due to tightening long-term quotas and increased air conditioning production. Recommended companies: **Juhua Co.** and **Sanmei Co.** [4][7]. - **Aramid Paper**: Demand is increasing due to applications in electrical insulation and honeycomb core materials. Recommended company: **Tongyi Zhong** [4]. - **Civil Explosives**: The industry is experiencing improved profitability due to stable demand and declining costs. Recommended company: **Guangdong Hongda** [5]. - **Pentaerythritol**: Anticipated price increases due to low inventory levels and high demand from the PCB sector [5]. Investment Portfolio - The investment portfolio for this month includes: - **Yaqi International**: A rare potassium fertilizer producer with expanding capacity - **Bailong Chuangyuan**: A long-term growth "small giant" in functional sugars - **Tongyi Zhong**: A company with a full industrial chain layout for UHMWPE fibers - **Guangdong Hongda**: A leading integrated service provider in the civil explosives sector [6].