全球汽车行业正站在一个巨大的转折点上。据大摩21日发布的《机器人年鉴第六卷：自动驾驶汽车》（The Robot Almanac Vol. 6: Autonomous Vehicles），分析师Adam Jonas团队指出，尽管人类目前每年累计在汽车内花费的时间相当于8200万年，但这一传统的驾驶模式即将被打破，自动驾驶 技术正处于从"0到1"爆发的前夜。 在这一轮全球技术竞赛中，大摩明确指出中国已经处于领先地位。据追风交易台消息，报告数据显示，中国目前拥有全球约60%的L2+级自动驾驶汽车 份额，这不仅得益于中国在电动汽车（EV）领域的胜利，更在于其通过海量电动车队构建的"数据探针"优势。 与此同时，美国市场的竞争格局也正发生深刻变化，Waymo与特斯拉之间的路线之争愈演愈烈。Waymo正在从凤凰城、旧金山等地向洛杉矶、奥斯汀 及亚特兰大等全美主要城市快速扩张，其运营里程预计将在未来几年实现爆发式增长；而特斯拉采取的纯视觉方案则被视为"刚刚起步"，虽然硬件成本 极低，但旨在通过庞大的车队数据实现超越。报告将当前的传感器技术路线之争比作19世纪末的"电流之战"（War of the Currents），认为不同 ...

针对近期有消息称美国植物基制药企业PharmAGRI与特斯拉签署意向书，计划在自营农场和处方药生产环节 部署多达1万台Optimus Gen3+人形机器人一事，马斯克在社交媒体上简要回复称：假的。 截至当地时间9月18日美股收盘，特斯拉报416.85美元，跌幅2.12%，最新市值1.39万亿美元，其市值一夜蒸发 300亿美元（约合人民币2134亿元）。 Sosnick补充称，"目标中的Robotaxi（机器人出租车）革命似乎还不够，所以转向人形机器人是另一次尝试。" 9月7日，特斯拉开通"TeslaAI"的官方微博，认证为"特斯拉官方账号"，并发布首条微博展示其人形机器人。 特斯拉发布了两张人形机器人的照片，并配文："我一直在努力改善自己的身材"。 据证券时报，此前消息显示，这台机器人还拥有仿生设计的手部，带有真人手部的褶皱、指甲轮廓、关节痕迹 等，细节较为逼真，相比前两代Optimus的手部有较为明显的进步。 对于人形机器人，马斯克曾表示，预计今年年底将推出人形机器人Optimus第3版原型机，2026年开始批量生 产，五年内实现年产100万台Optimus机器人。 9月初，特斯拉发布了"宏图计划第四篇章" ...

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk is attempting to pivot Tesla from electric vehicles to humanoid robots, but investors remain skeptical due to stagnant sales and high valuations [1][2]. Group 1: Tesla's Current Situation - Tesla's projected earnings for 2025 are expected to decline by nearly 30%, and its autonomous taxi business is still years away from profitability [1]. - The electric vehicle industry is experiencing a slowdown starting in 2023, which is expected to worsen in 2024, while Tesla's stock is becoming increasingly expensive with a forward P/E ratio of 155 [1]. - Tesla is considered the most expensive stock among the "Seven Giants," with Nvidia following at a P/E of only 31 [1]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Future Growth - Analysts suggest that the market is pricing Tesla as a growth company despite nearly no substantial revenue growth over the past two years [2]. - Musk's new compensation plan, valued at $1 trillion, is heavily dependent on the success of the Optimus robot project, which includes a goal of selling 1 million AI robots in the next decade [2]. - Many investors view Tesla's value as a bet on Musk's ability to turn sci-fi visions into reality, rather than just focusing on vehicle sales or financial data [3]. Group 3: Investment Perspective - For those who believe in Musk's potential to change the world through innovation, investing in Tesla is seen as the only way to gain exposure to "Elon" in a public investment portfolio [4].

Group 1 - Elon Musk is attempting to shift Tesla's focus from electric vehicles to humanoid robots, with a claim that about 80% of the company's long-term value will come from the Optimus project [1] - Tesla's projected earnings for 2025 are expected to decline by nearly 30%, and its autonomous taxi business is still years away from profitability, facing fierce competition from companies like Waymo [1] - Tesla's stock is currently valued at a high price-to-earnings ratio of 155, making it the most expensive stock among the "Seven Giants," with only Palantir having a higher ratio among companies with a market cap over $100 billion [1] Group 2 - Analysts note that Tesla's pricing reflects a growth company, despite its revenue showing little substantial growth over the past two years, indicating a need for a new growth narrative [2] - Musk's unprecedented $1 trillion compensation plan is heavily reliant on the success of the Optimus robot, with a goal of selling 1 million AI robots in the next decade [2] - Many investors view Tesla's value as a bet on Musk's ability to turn sci-fi visions into reality, rather than just focusing on electric vehicle sales or financial data [2] Group 3 - Investing in Tesla is seen as the only way to gain exposure to Elon Musk's innovative potential, according to analysts [3]

Group 1 - The 16th Davos Forum (New Champions Annual Meeting) will be held in Tianjin from June 24 to 26, 2025, with Zhang Yaqin, a foreign academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and the director of Tsinghua University's Intelligent Industry Research Institute, attending and sharing insights [2] - Zhang Yaqin predicts that the autonomous driving sector is approaching a "DeepSeek moment," highlighting significant advancements in robotaxi technology, which has seen substantial progress and commercialization in cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, Tokyo, and Tesla's location [2] - In China, Baidu's Apollo Go system has been operational for the longest time, successfully covering Wuhan with over 1,000 vehicles, indicating a new phase in the industry, alongside efforts from companies like WeRide [2] Group 2 - Zhang Yaqin emphasizes two core goals for safety and economic efficiency: significantly improving safety to be ten times safer than human drivers, aiming to reduce 90% of accidents caused by human error, and transforming vehicle economics by eliminating driver costs, potentially doubling operational efficiency [3] - The development of generative AI and large language models is helping to address two major challenges in autonomous driving: processing and understanding vast amounts of data, and enabling end-to-end training of decision models, which simplifies the system while maintaining safety boundaries [3] - Zhang Yaqin forecasts that by 2030, 10% of new vehicle shipments will possess L4 autonomous driving capabilities, catering to both robotaxi and consumer markets, while also noting the need for improved charging infrastructure and competitive regulations in the electric vehicle ecosystem [4]

Core Insights - Tesla is set to launch its autonomous taxi service in Austin, Texas, in June, which is expected to impact short-term profitability and investor confidence [1] - CEO Elon Musk revealed a phased expansion plan, starting with 10 to 20 fully autonomous Model Y vehicles, aiming to scale to "millions" by the end of 2026 [1] - Approximately 300 test operators have been deployed in Austin to ensure service stability, with some transitioning to remote monitoring roles [1] Expansion Plans - Tesla plans to expand its service to other U.S. cities by the end of the year and introduce a sharing model similar to Airbnb, allowing private car owners to join the autonomous taxi network [2] - Analysts from ARK Invest estimate that Tesla could achieve an operational scale of around 100,000 vehicles by the end of the year, with the Austin launch serving as a critical test for commercial viability [2] Competitive Landscape - If Tesla accelerates its rollout as planned, its autonomous taxi business could quickly catch up to industry leader Waymo [2] - The early operational phase may face scrutiny over safety incidents, necessitating ongoing observation of technology reliability [2] Strategic Vision - Tesla aims to reshape the mobility economy through its autonomous taxi service, balancing technology maturity, operational efficiency, and public acceptance in the short term [2] - The vision of a "million-vehicle fleet" is transitioning from concept to reality, with the Austin streets serving as a key testing ground for Tesla's AI capabilities [2]