针对近期有消息称美国植物基制药企业PharmAGRI与特斯拉签署意向书，计划在自营农场和处方药生产环节 部署多达1万台Optimus Gen3+人形机器人一事，马斯克在社交媒体上简要回复称：假的。 截至当地时间9月18日美股收盘，特斯拉报416.85美元，跌幅2.12%，最新市值1.39万亿美元，其市值一夜蒸发 300亿美元（约合人民币2134亿元）。 Sosnick补充称，"目标中的Robotaxi（机器人出租车）革命似乎还不够，所以转向人形机器人是另一次尝试。" 9月7日，特斯拉开通"TeslaAI"的官方微博，认证为"特斯拉官方账号"，并发布首条微博展示其人形机器人。 特斯拉发布了两张人形机器人的照片，并配文："我一直在努力改善自己的身材"。 据证券时报，此前消息显示，这台机器人还拥有仿生设计的手部，带有真人手部的褶皱、指甲轮廓、关节痕迹 等，细节较为逼真，相比前两代Optimus的手部有较为明显的进步。 对于人形机器人，马斯克曾表示，预计今年年底将推出人形机器人Optimus第3版原型机，2026年开始批量生 产，五年内实现年产100万台Optimus机器人。 9月初，特斯拉发布了"宏图计划第四篇章" ...

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk is attempting to pivot Tesla from electric vehicles to humanoid robots, but investors remain skeptical due to stagnant sales and high valuations [1][2]. Group 1: Tesla's Current Situation - Tesla's projected earnings for 2025 are expected to decline by nearly 30%, and its autonomous taxi business is still years away from profitability [1]. - The electric vehicle industry is experiencing a slowdown starting in 2023, which is expected to worsen in 2024, while Tesla's stock is becoming increasingly expensive with a forward P/E ratio of 155 [1]. - Tesla is considered the most expensive stock among the "Seven Giants," with Nvidia following at a P/E of only 31 [1]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Future Growth - Analysts suggest that the market is pricing Tesla as a growth company despite nearly no substantial revenue growth over the past two years [2]. - Musk's new compensation plan, valued at $1 trillion, is heavily dependent on the success of the Optimus robot project, which includes a goal of selling 1 million AI robots in the next decade [2]. - Many investors view Tesla's value as a bet on Musk's ability to turn sci-fi visions into reality, rather than just focusing on vehicle sales or financial data [3]. Group 3: Investment Perspective - For those who believe in Musk's potential to change the world through innovation, investing in Tesla is seen as the only way to gain exposure to "Elon" in a public investment portfolio [4].

埃隆·马斯克正试图让特斯拉公司从电动车业务转向人形机器人，但对持怀疑态度的投资者来说，其停 滞的销量和居高的估值依然是无法回避的问题。 本月早些时候，马斯克在社交媒体上宣称，特斯拉未来"约80%的长期价值"将来自Optimus——公司的 人形机器人项目，这表明他急于将这家车企打造成人工智能巨头。 但那毕竟属于未来。眼下，特斯拉2025年的盈利预计将下滑近30%，其无人出租车业务距离盈利也还有 数年之遥，公司还要面临来自Alphabet旗下Waymo等公司的激烈竞争。 Horizon Investments分析师Dmitry Shlyapnikov指出，市场对特斯拉的定价就像把他当作一家增长型公 司，但过去两年其营收几乎没有实质增长。 "马斯克需要为投资者提供一个新的增长故事，而Optimus就是答案。"这也是为什么马斯克前所未有的1 万亿美元薪酬方案严重依赖于Optimus机器人的原因。 本月早些时候，特斯拉董事会向马斯克提出一份未来10年的新薪酬方案，如果他能够实现一系列雄心勃 勃的目标，他将获得价值1万亿美元的薪酬。其中一个目标就是马斯克要带领特斯拉在十年内销售100万 台AI机器人。 对冲基金Telem ...

Group 1 - The 16th Davos Forum (New Champions Annual Meeting) will be held in Tianjin from June 24 to 26, 2025, with Zhang Yaqin, a foreign academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and the director of Tsinghua University's Intelligent Industry Research Institute, attending and sharing insights [2] - Zhang Yaqin predicts that the autonomous driving sector is approaching a "DeepSeek moment," highlighting significant advancements in robotaxi technology, which has seen substantial progress and commercialization in cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, Tokyo, and Tesla's location [2] - In China, Baidu's Apollo Go system has been operational for the longest time, successfully covering Wuhan with over 1,000 vehicles, indicating a new phase in the industry, alongside efforts from companies like WeRide [2] Group 2 - Zhang Yaqin emphasizes two core goals for safety and economic efficiency: significantly improving safety to be ten times safer than human drivers, aiming to reduce 90% of accidents caused by human error, and transforming vehicle economics by eliminating driver costs, potentially doubling operational efficiency [3] - The development of generative AI and large language models is helping to address two major challenges in autonomous driving: processing and understanding vast amounts of data, and enabling end-to-end training of decision models, which simplifies the system while maintaining safety boundaries [3] - Zhang Yaqin forecasts that by 2030, 10% of new vehicle shipments will possess L4 autonomous driving capabilities, catering to both robotaxi and consumer markets, while also noting the need for improved charging infrastructure and competitive regulations in the electric vehicle ecosystem [4]

Core Insights - Tesla is set to launch its autonomous taxi service in Austin, Texas, in June, which is expected to impact short-term profitability and investor confidence [1] - CEO Elon Musk revealed a phased expansion plan, starting with 10 to 20 fully autonomous Model Y vehicles, aiming to scale to "millions" by the end of 2026 [1] - Approximately 300 test operators have been deployed in Austin to ensure service stability, with some transitioning to remote monitoring roles [1] Expansion Plans - Tesla plans to expand its service to other U.S. cities by the end of the year and introduce a sharing model similar to Airbnb, allowing private car owners to join the autonomous taxi network [2] - Analysts from ARK Invest estimate that Tesla could achieve an operational scale of around 100,000 vehicles by the end of the year, with the Austin launch serving as a critical test for commercial viability [2] Competitive Landscape - If Tesla accelerates its rollout as planned, its autonomous taxi business could quickly catch up to industry leader Waymo [2] - The early operational phase may face scrutiny over safety incidents, necessitating ongoing observation of technology reliability [2] Strategic Vision - Tesla aims to reshape the mobility economy through its autonomous taxi service, balancing technology maturity, operational efficiency, and public acceptance in the short term [2] - The vision of a "million-vehicle fleet" is transitioning from concept to reality, with the Austin streets serving as a key testing ground for Tesla's AI capabilities [2]