中证报中证网讯(龚梦泽熊永红)美东时间11月6日，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆.马斯克在年度股东大会上赢 得了压倒性支持，其一项为期10年的薪酬计划于当天获得投票批准。马斯克未来有望获得近1万亿美元 市值的特斯拉股票作为酬劳。 根据计划，马斯克需在未来十年实现多项颇具挑战性的业绩目标，只有完成这些目标，才能获得数亿只 特斯拉新发行股票作为薪酬。这些目标包括，实现100万辆Robotaxi(无人驾驶出租车)的商业应用，以及 特斯拉市值从当前规模提升至8.5万亿美元等。届时，马斯克获得的股票市值将达1万亿美元。 大会现场，马斯克表示对特斯拉的人形机器人Optimus很有信心，经过人工智能训练的机器人能够降低 成本，释放经济活力。此外，马斯克对特斯拉的Robotaxi服务和自动驾驶技术大加褒奖。他表示，随着 自动驾驶技术的逐渐普及，将有望拯救数百万人的生命。同时，特斯拉专为Robotaxi服务打造的纯电动 汽车CyberCab将于2026年4月开始生产。 最新消息显示，股东大会批准薪酬方案后，周四收跌3.5%的特斯拉股价盘后曾一度涨超3%。截至11月7 日，特斯拉股价445.91美元，总市值为1.48万亿美元。 ...

Core Insights - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk announced that the plan for mass production of the humanoid robot Optimus has failed, stating it is "almost impossible" to manufacture this year [1] - Musk previously set ambitious production targets of 5,000 units by 2025 and 50,000 units by 2026, which are now deemed unrealistic [1] Technical Challenges - Musk emphasized the significant engineering challenges in creating a robot with dexterous hands similar to humans, noting that the complexity of human hands makes it a daunting task [4] - Many domestic robotics companies have opted for simpler two-finger or three-finger grippers due to the difficulties in developing dexterous hands [4] Supply Chain Issues - The lack of an existing supply chain for humanoid robots poses a major challenge for Tesla, requiring the company to vertically integrate and manufacture its own components [5] - Tesla's engineering team for Optimus consists largely of members from the automotive department, which provides a foundation for the robot's development [5] Production Roadmap - Musk provided a revised production timeline, expecting to unveil the third generation of Optimus in Q1 2026, with plans for a production line capable of producing one million units annually by the end of 2026 [6] - The company is prepared to increase capital expenditures significantly, with an estimated $9 billion for this year and even higher figures for 2026 to support growth in AI and robotics [6]

埃隆·马斯克正试图让特斯拉公司从电动车业务转向人形机器人，但对持怀疑态度的投资者来说，其停 滞的销量和居高的估值依然是无法回避的问题。 本月早些时候，马斯克在社交媒体上宣称，特斯拉未来"约80%的长期价值"将来自Optimus——公司的 人形机器人项目，这表明他急于将这家车企打造成人工智能巨头。 但那毕竟属于未来。眼下，特斯拉2025年的盈利预计将下滑近30%，其无人出租车业务距离盈利也还有 数年之遥，公司还要面临来自Alphabet旗下Waymo等公司的激烈竞争。 Horizon Investments分析师Dmitry Shlyapnikov指出，市场对特斯拉的定价就像把他当作一家增长型公 司，但过去两年其营收几乎没有实质增长。 "马斯克需要为投资者提供一个新的增长故事，而Optimus就是答案。"这也是为什么马斯克前所未有的1 万亿美元薪酬方案严重依赖于Optimus机器人的原因。 本月早些时候，特斯拉董事会向马斯克提出一份未来10年的新薪酬方案，如果他能够实现一系列雄心勃 勃的目标，他将获得价值1万亿美元的薪酬。其中一个目标就是马斯克要带领特斯拉在十年内销售100万 台AI机器人。 对冲基金Telem ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's proposed compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk, viewed as a "golden handcuff," ties Musk's future to ambitious performance targets over the next decade, potentially elevating him to billionaire status if successful [1][19]. Compensation Structure - The plan includes a performance-based agreement that could grant Musk up to 423.7 million shares of Tesla stock, contingent on meeting specific market capitalization and operational milestones [2][4]. - The compensation is structured in 12 tranches, with Musk receiving approximately 35.31 million shares for each milestone achieved, which are deemed to be of "hellish difficulty" [2][4]. Market Capitalization Goals - The first milestone requires Tesla's market capitalization to increase from approximately $1.1 trillion to $2 trillion, with subsequent increments of $500 billion until reaching $6.5 trillion, and then $1 trillion increments to a final target of $8.5 trillion [2][4]. Operational Milestones - Key operational targets include: - Delivering 20 million Tesla vehicles cumulatively - Achieving 10 million active FSD (Full Self-Driving) subscriptions - Delivering 1 million humanoid robots - Operating 1 million Robotaxis commercially [4][10]. Financial Performance Targets - The plan stipulates that Tesla's adjusted EBITDA must reach $400 billion, necessitating a significant increase in revenue, estimated to require annual revenues of $2 trillion to support this profit level [4][15]. Challenges in Execution - Achieving the vehicle delivery target implies an average annual sales of over 1.2 million units, which is challenging given recent declines in delivery numbers [5][6]. - The global electric vehicle market is expected to slow down, with competitors like BYD projected to surpass Tesla in market share by 2025 [6][8]. Technological and Market Hurdles - The FSD subscription model faces challenges, with current adoption rates around 10%, and significant technological advancements are needed to achieve full autonomy [8][9]. - The Robotaxi initiative is still in its infancy, with limited pilot programs and regulatory hurdles to overcome [9][10]. Humanoid Robot Ambitions - The target for delivering 1 million humanoid robots has been pushed back to 2035, with current production still in early development stages [11][12]. - Market demand for humanoid robots remains uncertain, and achieving cost-effective production is critical for success [13][14]. Strategic Importance of Musk - Musk's leadership is viewed as crucial for Tesla's innovation and growth, with the compensation plan reflecting the company's reliance on his vision and capabilities [19].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's latest "Master Plan Part IV" shifts the company's focus from electric vehicles and energy to artificial intelligence and robotics, aiming to create a "sustainable prosperity" society through AI integration into the physical world [1][3][5]. Group 1: Vision and Goals - The ultimate goal defined in the plan is to achieve "unconstrained sustainability without compromise" [3][5]. - The plan outlines five guiding principles: 1. Growth is unlimited: Technological innovation can solve resource shortages and create more economic opportunities [3][10]. 2. Innovation eliminates limitations: Continuous innovation can overcome seemingly impossible obstacles [3][12]. 3. Technology solves real problems: Products like autonomous vehicles and Optimus robots aim to address issues such as traffic safety and labor efficiency [3][14]. 4. Autonomy must benefit all humanity: The development and application of autonomous technology should enhance human well-being [3][18]. 5. Broader access drives greater growth: Providing advanced technology products at affordable prices is essential for building a prosperous society [3][19]. Group 2: Criticism and Skepticism - Critics argue that the plan lacks concrete execution paths and is seen as vague promises about AI, with some labeling it as a collection of empty AI commitments [2][28]. - There are concerns regarding Tesla's ability to attract top AI talent compared to competitors like OpenAI, Microsoft, and Apple, due to Elon Musk's management style [30]. - Observers question the feasibility of the ambitious goals set in previous master plans, noting that many steps remain unfulfilled, leading to skepticism about the current plan's viability [29][33].

以下文章来源于硬AI ，作者专注科技产研的 硬AI . AI时代，快人一步~ 特斯拉的未来，是继续引领电动车革命，还是成为一家人工智能公司？其最新发布的宏伟蓝图给出了答案，却也引发了更多争议与质疑声。 对于这番宏大目标，特斯拉CEO马斯克给出了一个更具体的数值： 80% 。他说道： 未来，特斯拉约80%的价值将来自机器人Optimus。 马斯克曾多次为此次"宏图计划4"做预热，去年他就自信地表示： 这将是史诗般的。 然而，这份纲领性文件因缺乏具体执行路径，正面临着"空谈AI"的尖锐批 评。 媒体Electrek的评论员Fred Lambert称， 该计划"不过是一堆模糊的AI承诺的大杂烩"，甚至讽刺其人形机器人"连爆米花都端不好"。相较于马斯克此前清晰、 可执行的大师计划，第四篇章更像是"给特斯拉股东的鸦片"，旨在让他们沉迷于AI股票"无限增长"的幻想，而缺乏实际支撑。 宏大愿景：AI驱动的"可持续富足" 特斯拉在"大师计划第四篇章"中，将公司的终极目标定义为"在不妥协的情况下实现不受约束的可持续性"。 文件开篇即强调，特斯拉正在构建将人工智能引入物理世界的产品和服务，并已为此进行了近二十年的基础性工作，涵盖 ...

Core Insights - Tesla's latest "Master Plan Part 4" shifts focus from sustainable development to a vision of a future society dominated by AI and robotics, termed "sustainable abundance" [2][20] - The plan emphasizes that 80% of Tesla's value will come from its humanoid robot, Optimus, indicating a strategic pivot towards productivity rather than just automotive or energy products [3][10] - The report presents a grand vision for a new economic structure driven by machines, raising questions about the societal implications of widespread automation and job displacement [14][15][18] Summary by Sections Historical Context - Previous plans (Parts 1 and 2) were pragmatic, focusing on product and business strategies, addressing how Tesla would penetrate the market and establish a comprehensive ecosystem around electric vehicles and energy solutions [4][5] - The first plan outlined a roadmap from niche to mass-market electric vehicles, while the second plan expanded into solar energy, storage, and autonomous driving [4] New Vision - The fourth part of the plan is less about specific business strategies and more about a global economic analysis, arguing for the feasibility of a complete transition to sustainable energy [6][8] - It positions AI as the foundational technology driving this new system, with Optimus executing production tasks, while existing hardware becomes applications of AI capabilities [10][11] Economic Implications - The plan proposes a new economic model where the value created by robots is taxed and redistributed to ensure universal high income (UHI), aiming for a society where everyone has access to essential needs [15][16] - The implementation of this model faces significant challenges, including political resistance and societal impacts, which are not addressed in the plan [18] Current Challenges - Tesla's stock price fell following the announcement, highlighting the gap between the ambitious goals and the current production capabilities [7][19] - Internal challenges, such as the dissolution of the Dojo supercomputer team and declining sales in key markets like China, contrast sharply with the optimistic vision of exponential growth and prosperity [18][19] Conclusion - The "Master Plan Part 4" signifies a major strategic shift for Tesla, moving beyond traditional business objectives to a broader societal vision, but achieving this vision will require more than just technological advancements [20][21]

撰 文 / 张霖郁 设 计 / 赵昊然 "特斯拉无人监督驾驶FSD（unsupervised FSD）将于今年6月在德州奥斯汀推送。安装了这一软件 的特斯拉新车在工厂下线后，将自行开到厂区指定地点，它们将供下一步工作人员进行装车，运到 不同的交付中心。" 总装车间流水线上下来的新车，排着队，自己把自己开到指定区域，这一画面在美国特斯拉的弗里 蒙特工厂已经实现。这一场景可在网上找到相关视频。 这是马斯克（Elon Musk）想要实现并且某种意义上已实现的美丽新世界。 汽车收入首次下滑 整个2024年度，特斯拉的表现没有实现预期。汽车收入、净利润均双双出现下滑，净利润下滑幅度 最大。 美东时间2025年1月29日下午，马斯克在2024第四季度及全年财报会上再次提及这一场景，他进一 步给出了"无人监督全自动驾驶"在奥斯汀推送并运行的具体时间。 "无人监督全自动驾驶"基本可以理解为L4级别的智驾能力，车基本能自己开。 想象一下，今年6月开始，奥斯汀也就是特斯拉总部的所在城市，街头来往的特斯拉车型里，具备 这一功能的车主将可基本脱手方向盘，坐在车里观赏风景或发呆，全程体验车开人，类似Waymo robotaxi的体验。 ...