124亿对赌VS14亿账面现金。 作者 | 贝壳XY 编辑 | 小白 Soul曾立下宏愿："让天下没有孤独的人"。 这话听着还挺浪漫，但仔细一琢磨，总觉得哪里不对劲。天下人那么多，孤独岂是那么容易消除的？Soul 给出了自己的答案：不贵，一个头像30块起，一套行头配齐上万块封顶。 原来，所谓的"消除孤独"，是先让你在它的世界里，花一笔钱打扮得漂漂亮亮，再用这身行头去吸引别 人的注意，开启一段可能付费的对话。这哪里是普度众生的社交平台，分明是一场精心设计的"Money社 交"。 如今，这个把用户情绪悄悄变成真金白银的APP，揣着一份盈利成绩单，又一次站在了港交所的大门前。 这一次，Soul的故事能讲通吗？ 等它缓过劲来，公司开始将目光转向港股市场，2022年6月趁着"元宇宙"概念大火之际，公司打着"社交元 宇宙第一股"旗号递表港交所，但奈何商业变现路径模糊不清，市场也并未买账。 转眼到了2023年3月，市场真的变了天，曾经风靡全球的元宇宙凉了，公司打造的"元宇宙"身份自然打了 水漂，资本也不再为故事和概念买单。而Soul因持续亏损，2020至2022年一共亏损约15亿，第三次IPO也 宣告凉凉。 | | 裁至1 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The latest auction by PJM, the largest grid operator in the U.S., indicates that the capacity price for 2027/2028 has reached a ceiling of $333.4, with a simulated "shadow price" suggesting that actual costs may be 60% higher. Goldman Sachs warns that if future auctions eliminate price caps, electricity costs could potentially double. In November, the U.S. data center power demand capacity saw an increase of 1.6 GW, significantly surpassing the average monthly growth of 0.26 GW from 2017 to 2024, bringing the total capacity to 44.6 GW. This trend supports the view that the development of AI in the U.S. is increasingly constrained by electricity costs, leading to a positive outlook for the power equipment industry [3]. Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - On December 29, SMIC announced that its subsidiary, SMIC Southern, will increase its registered capital from $6.5 billion to $10.0773 billion. The capital increase will primarily come from SMIC Holdings and various national and regional integrated circuit funds, totaling $7.778 billion. Following this capital increase, SMIC will hold a 41.56% stake in SMIC Southern. This significant growth indicates ongoing large-scale expansion, and with the current favorable outlook for storage demand, the semiconductor front-end equipment industry is expected to see improved market conditions [4]. Group 3: Advanced Manufacturing - The Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, has made forward-looking predictions regarding the demand for new energy batteries in early 2026. He suggests that due to seasonal disruptions from the Spring Festival and a temporary weakening of downstream demand, lithium battery demand may experience a noticeable month-on-month decline. The production data indicates that the total planned production of lithium batteries (including energy storage, power, and consumer) in China for January 2026 is approximately 210 GWh, a 4.5% decrease month-on-month, while the global market's planned production is about 220 GWh, down 6.4%. However, this decline is attributed to seasonal and structural factors, and the overall industry outlook remains positive, with a year-on-year increase of 39.8% in planned production for January [7]. Group 4: Consumer Sector - Soulgate plans to submit its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the third time in November 2025. Tencent (holding 49.9%, not involved in daily operations) and miHoYo (holding 5.47%) are core shareholders. Since its launch in 2016, the Soul APP has attracted a large number of young users through its differentiated positioning of "soul socializing." The platform's average daily active users reached 10.96 million from January to August 2025, with an average of 20.1 launches per user per day and a 30-day user retention rate of 23%. The company has achieved a net profit since 2023, with steady revenue growth projected from 2022 to 2024, and a revenue of 1.683 billion yuan (up 17.82% year-on-year) for the first eight months of 2025, maintaining a gross margin above 80%. The integration of AI capabilities is expected to enhance user engagement and explore new business models in the social space [9].

Core Insights - Soul APP has been awarded the "Annual Outstanding Unicorn Enterprise" by the Golden Award of Gelonghui, highlighting its growth potential and commercial explosiveness [1][2] Group 1: Market Position and User Engagement - Soul APP effectively addresses the deep social needs of Generation Z, creating a high-engagement digital community that is difficult to replicate [3] - As of August 2025, Soul's daily active users reached 11 million, with Generation Z comprising 78.7% of this user base. Users spend an average of over 50 minutes daily on the app, sending approximately 75 private messages each day, and achieving an 80% retention rate over three months [3][4] Group 2: AI Integration and Business Model - Soul has strategically integrated AI technology into its platform, positioning itself as an "AI + immersive social platform" in its 2025 IPO prospectus, marking a significant transition from concept to practice [5] - The company's revenue has grown from 498 million yuan in 2020 to 2.211 billion yuan in 2024, with adjusted net profits of 360 million yuan and 340 million yuan in 2023 and 2024, respectively. The average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) increased from 43.5 yuan to 104.4 yuan, demonstrating strong monetization potential [6][7] Group 3: Future Market Potential - The recognition from the Golden Award reflects not only Soul's growth but also the potential of the immersive emotional economy market in China, which is expected to grow from approximately 7 billion yuan in 2024 to 90 billion yuan by 2030 [8]

Core Viewpoint - Soul APP has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the fourth time, facing challenges due to high advertising costs and a plateau in user growth [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Soul has incurred nearly 2.3 billion yuan in advertising expenses over three years, indicating a "burn money for growth" strategy that is becoming unsustainable [1][5]. - The company's revenue has shown steady growth, with projected revenues of 16.67 billion yuan in 2022, 18.46 billion yuan in 2023, and 22.11 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 15% [4]. - For the first eight months of 2025, revenue reached 1.683 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.86%, surpassing the average growth rate of the past three years [4]. - Soul's revenue is primarily derived from emotional value services, accounting for over 90% of total income, while advertising and other services contribute less than 10% [4]. Group 2: User Growth and Complaints - The monthly active users (MAU) declined from 29.4 million in 2022 to 26.2 million in 2023, remaining stagnant in 2024, indicating a significant challenge in user growth [5]. - As of December 2025, there have been over 5,600 user complaints, primarily concerning automatic renewals, inability to refund, and misleading recharge practices [6][7]. - The platform's anonymous mechanism has led to safety risks and has been associated with numerous emotional fraud cases, with reports of scams involving significant amounts of money [9][10]. Group 3: Marketing and Operational Challenges - Soul's marketing expenses remain high, with sales and marketing costs of 8.44 billion yuan, 7.52 billion yuan, and 8.89 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, constituting approximately 40% of annual revenue [5]. - The company reported net losses of 508 million yuan, 129 million yuan, and 152 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, indicating ongoing profitability challenges [5]. - Despite implementing AI models for risk management, the platform continues to face issues with fraud and user trust, as evidenced by ongoing complaints and reports of scams [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Soul, a social platform focusing on "soulful socializing," has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the fourth time, rebranding itself as the "AI + immersive emotional socialization first stock" [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Soul was founded in 2016 with the vision of creating a "spiritual habitat for young people," utilizing an algorithm to match users based on interests in an anonymous environment, quickly gaining over 10 million users within a year [2] - The company has undergone rapid financing phases, achieving a valuation of over $1 billion after a Series B round led by Tencent in 2019, which increased its stake to 49.9% by 2021 [2] - Revenue growth has been steady, with projected revenues of 16.67 billion, 18.46 billion, and 22.11 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 15% [2] Group 2: Revenue Model - Soul primarily generates revenue through two channels: emotional value services and advertising services, with over 90% of revenue coming from emotional value services from 2022 to 2025 [3] - The company has a high gross margin, projected at 83.7% in 2024 and 81.5% in the first eight months of 2025, but its reliance on a single revenue source poses risks to its financial stability [3] - Marketing expenditures have been substantial, with sales and marketing costs of 8.44 billion, 7.52 billion, and 8.89 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, accounting for approximately 40% of annual revenue [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - Soul has reported net losses of 5.08 billion, 1.29 billion, and 1.52 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with adjusted net profits showing variability [4] - The user growth has plateaued, with monthly active users (MAU) declining from 29.4 million in 2022 to 26.2 million in 2023, and only recovering to 28 million in the first eight months of 2025, indicating a significant challenge for long-term growth [5] Group 4: Compliance Challenges - The platform's anonymous mechanism, while attractive to users, has led to compliance issues, including fraud and false advertising, with over 6,070 complaints reported on the Black Cat Complaint platform [6] - Despite implementing an "AI pre-review + manual review" system, issues related to scams and high fees persist, posing risks to user retention and regulatory compliance [7] - Competitors are increasingly mimicking Soul's features, which may erode its market advantage, highlighting the need for the company to address its profitability and compliance challenges for sustainable growth [7]

Core Insights - Soul, a social platform focused on connecting strangers, has submitted its IPO application for the fourth time, showcasing strong financial performance with projected revenue of 1.683 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year growth of 17.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 286 million RMB with a net profit margin of 17.0% [2][3] - User growth has been stable, with an average monthly active user count of around 28 million as of August 31, 2025, which is below the peak of over 30 million during the pandemic and lower than 29.4 million in 2022. Revenue growth has primarily come from an increase in the average revenue per user (ARPU), which rose nearly 40% from 75.3 RMB to 104.4 RMB [2][3] - The platform's user engagement is supported by Tencent, which holds a 49.9% stake in Soul, indicating strong backing from major industry players [2][3] Financial Performance - As of August 31, 2025, Soul's revenue is projected to reach 1.683 billion RMB, with a 17.8% year-on-year increase, and an adjusted net profit of 286 million RMB, resulting in a net profit margin of 17.0% [2] - The ARPU has increased from 75.3 RMB to 104.4 RMB, reflecting a growth of nearly 40% [2] - The number of paying users has seen a slight increase, with an average of 1.8 million paying users in 2023, a 9% increase from 2022 [2] User Engagement and Retention - Soul's 30-day user retention rate stands at 23%, with an average daily launch frequency of 20.1 times, outperforming several competing platforms [7] - The platform's revenue model is heavily reliant on user spending, with 58.4% of income derived from virtual gifts and items [9] - The top 10% of users account for 82.3% of total recharge amounts, indicating a concentration of spending among a small user base [12] Market Position and Strategy - Soul aims to address the emotional needs of users feeling lonely, suggesting that demand for its services may remain stable despite economic fluctuations [3] - The introduction of AI features, such as AI-assisted chatting and AI companions, aligns with current technological trends and aims to enhance user experience [14][15] - The platform's unique matching system, which includes personality tests and user attributes, differentiates it from competitors by focusing on deeper connections rather than superficial interactions [4][5] Challenges and Opportunities - Soul faces challenges related to user retention as some users transition away from online socializing due to life changes, such as entering the workforce or forming stable relationships [7] - The platform's reliance on a small percentage of high-spending users raises concerns about sustainability and the potential impact of user churn [12][13] - The integration of AI technology presents both opportunities for enhanced user engagement and challenges in maintaining the authenticity of interactions [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Soul, a social app aimed at alleviating loneliness among young people, is facing significant challenges as it attempts to go public for the fourth time, highlighting a shift from a "metaverse" narrative to an "AI + immersive social" focus amid ongoing user growth and financial losses [1][4]. Company Overview - Founded in 2015 in Shanghai, Soul differentiates itself from traditional social platforms by allowing users to create virtual identities (Avatars) and express themselves without revealing their real identities [3]. - The company employs a "soul test" during registration to match users with similar interests, fostering a unique social environment [3]. Financial Performance - Soul has reported continuous losses over six years, totaling over 3 billion yuan, despite increasing revenues from 71 million yuan in 2019 to 2.211 billion yuan in 2024 [8]. - The average monthly revenue per paying user reached 104.4 yuan, ranking first among AI + immersive social platforms in China [3][5]. - Revenue from emotional value services accounted for 90.8% of total income for the eight months ending August 31, 2025 [3]. User Metrics - Soul's monthly active users peaked at 31.6 million in 2021 but have since declined to 26.2 million by 2024 [7]. - The company has experienced fluctuating growth rates, with revenue growth slowing down significantly in recent years [8]. Strategic Shifts - Soul's narrative has shifted from focusing on the "metaverse" to emphasizing "AI," with the term "AI" appearing 210 times in the latest prospectus, compared to 23 mentions of "metaverse" in the previous one [4]. - The introduction of technologies like 3D Avatars and the Soul X model has expanded its social ecosystem, creating various interactive scenarios [4]. IPO Attempts - Soul has made four attempts to go public, initially targeting the U.S. market before shifting to Hong Kong, with the latest submission occurring in November 2025 [13][17]. - The company faced legal challenges and competitive pressures that have complicated its IPO journey, including a lawsuit from competitor Uki [15][16].

Core Insights - Soul has refiled for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after 32 months, shifting its narrative from "social metaverse" to the more popular "AI + immersive social" [2][4] - The company has reported its first profitable financial results, with an adjusted net profit of 286 million yuan in the first eight months of 2025, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses [4][6] - Despite the growth in user numbers and revenue, the average monthly revenue per paying user has shown signs of slowing growth, prompting a focus on AI for sustainable growth [6][7] Company Overview - Soul is recognized as a leading AI + immersive social platform in China, allowing users to express themselves through virtual avatars rather than relying on real identities [2][4] - The company was founded in 2015, and its app launched in 2016, quickly gaining traction with over 1.1 million daily active users by August 2025 [3] Financial Performance - In 2022, Soul had 29.4 million monthly active users, but only 5.7% were paying users, generating an average monthly revenue of 75.3 yuan per paying user, leading to a net loss of 49.48 million yuan [4][5] - By 2025, Soul's revenue reached 1.683 billion yuan, with a cumulative net profit of 985 million yuan since achieving profitability in 2023 [4][6] Revenue Composition - Nearly 90% of Soul's revenue comes from "emotional value services," which include virtual gifts and premium membership subscriptions, while about 10% is derived from advertising services [5] - The introduction of AI has been emphasized in the new prospectus, with the company developing its proprietary Soul X model to enhance user interactions and optimize revenue generation [5][6] AI Investment and Development - Soul has significantly increased its investment in AI, with technology and development expenses rising from 472 million yuan in 2022 to 407 million yuan in the first eight months of 2025, representing 24.2% of revenue [8][9] - The proportion of technical and development staff has increased from 20.7% to 44% of total employees, indicating a strong commitment to enhancing AI capabilities [8] Future Growth Strategies - The primary use of the funds raised will be to further develop AI capabilities, including GPU infrastructure and data analysis, as well as to explore international expansion [9]

Core Viewpoint - Soulgate Inc. has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with Tencent as a strategic investor holding 49.9% of the shares, but not participating in daily management and operations [2][3]. Company Overview - Soul is the first AI-driven immersive social networking platform in China where all users interact through avatars, aiming to create an emotional oasis based on interests and personalities rather than real identities [3]. - The funds raised from the IPO will be used for global expansion and enhancing AI capabilities [7]. Financial Performance - As of August 31, 2025, Soul had an average of 11 million daily active users, with 78.7% being Gen Z. Revenue from emotional value services accounted for 90.8% of total revenue [4]. - Total revenues for 2022, 2023, and 2024 were RMB 1.667 billion, RMB 1.846 billion, and RMB 2.211 billion, respectively. For the first eight months of 2025, total revenue was RMB 1.683 billion, a 17.86% increase from RMB 1.428 billion in the same period last year [4][5]. - Adjusted net losses were RMB 21.9 million in 2022, while adjusted net profits for 2023 and 2024 were RMB 361 million and RMB 337 million, respectively. For the first eight months of 2025, adjusted net profit was RMB 286 million, a 72.29% increase from RMB 166 million in the same period last year [4]. Strategic Partnerships - Tencent has been a strategic investor since May 2020, with multiple business relationships, including using WeChat Pay and advertising revenue, but Soul maintains a distinct business model focused on decentralized virtual social interactions [7]. Market Position and Competition - Soul has influenced the social networking landscape, with other products like SoulChill and Litmatch successfully entering overseas markets by adopting its model [8]. - In comparison, another company, Miliang Technology, has also submitted an IPO application and has shown strong financial performance, indicating a competitive landscape in the social networking sector [9][10]. Future Outlook - The IPO funds will support global expansion and technological upgrades, including AI development and content creation [7][16]. - The social networking industry is transitioning from rapid growth to a phase focused on sustainable profitability and clear differentiation, with successful IPOs signaling positive trends for the sector [17].

Core Insights - The rise of plush toys like Jellycat and Labubu reflects a growing trend in emotional consumption among Generation Z, with significant increases in related social media engagement and search volume [1] - Emotional value is recognized as a psychological necessity for over 90% of young people, with a majority indicating that it helps alleviate stress and anxiety [1][2] - Nearly 60% of young consumers are willing to spend on emotional value, with a notable increase in those prioritizing "value for emotional experience" in their purchasing decisions [1] Emotional Consumption Trends - 90% of young people have engaged in emotional spending, with 40% identified as frequent consumers [2] - The average monthly expenditure on emotional consumption is 949 yuan, with nearly 20% willing to spend over 2000 yuan monthly for happiness [2] - There is a rising expectation for emotional value in purchases, with over 70% of youth feeling that the threshold for obtaining emotional satisfaction through consumption is increasing [2] Gender Differences in Emotional Spending - Motivations for spending on emotional value differ by gender, with women more inclined towards self-reward and premium purchases, while men seek recognition and a sense of identity [2]