亚马逊（NASDAQ:AMZN）隶属于大名鼎鼎的 "美股七巨头"（Mag 7）。今年以来，受关税波动、美 联储加息（直到本月才降息）带来的不确定性，以及云计算领域竞争加剧等因素影响，"七巨头" 股价 轮番涨跌，人气时高时低，而亚马逊的股价表现一直拖后腿。 目前，亚马逊是 "七巨头" 里最后一个摆脱年内下跌的 —— 股价基本持平，不仅跑输其他六家巨头和标 普 500 指数（SP500）基准，还比 266.56 美元的预估公允价值低了 17%。也正因如此，分析师认为它是 当前最具上涨潜力的标的。 RSI 指标在 39 时非常有吸引力，接近超卖区域。该公司的下一个支撑位是 EMA200，位于 212 美元。 亚马逊股价几乎呈自由落体状态；它突破了 EMA21 和 EMA50，并在抛售中放量上涨，目前正测试 EMA200。 估值也不算太高。其预期市盈率为33.19倍，而行业平均市盈率为18.02倍；预期企业价值倍数为3.42 倍，而行业平均市盈率为1.35倍。然而，如果将亚马逊的企业价值倍数与同业公司进行比较，很明显， 亚马逊目前的估值水平被低估了。 市场原本对亚马逊今年的表现并不抱太大期望，但今早富国银行将其评级上 ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon is currently the last among the "Magnificent Seven" to escape year-to-date declines, with its stock price remaining flat, trailing behind its peers and the S&P 500 index, and is undervalued by 17% compared to its estimated fair value of $266.56, making it a potential investment opportunity [2][4]. Market Performance - Amazon's stock price has been underperforming compared to other tech giants and the S&P 500 index, with a current price close to a critical support level at $212 [4][8]. - The stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 39, indicating it is nearing oversold territory, which may attract buyers [4]. Analyst Ratings and Expectations - Following an upgrade from Wells Fargo to "Overweight," market sentiment towards Amazon has improved, with expectations for accelerated growth in AWS revenue due to the Project Rainer data center [7]. - Analysts have raised their earnings expectations for Amazon approximately 51 times in the last three months, indicating a more optimistic outlook for the upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report [7]. Revenue and Growth Factors - Amazon's North American e-commerce sales reached $100.1 billion in Q2, a year-over-year increase of 11%, alleviating concerns over tariff impacts as market sentiment has shifted to a more favorable tone [7]. - The recent 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to create a more favorable environment for Amazon, particularly in logistics and consumer spending, coinciding with the holiday shopping season [8]. AWS Performance and Competition - AWS's growth rate of 18% lags behind competitors like Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud, which reported growth rates of 39% and 32%, respectively [10]. - Despite AWS's lower-than-expected operating profit of $10.2 billion, the market has largely absorbed this negative news, and AWS is expected to maintain its leading market share with a projected growth rate increase from 19% to 22% by 2026 [14]. Strategic Adjustments - Amazon's decision to close all Amazon Fresh stores in the UK reflects a strategic shift towards efficiency, with plans to convert some locations into Whole Foods stores [15]. - The company aims to double the number of Prime members in the UK with access to multiple online grocery options, capitalizing on a projected compound annual growth rate of 26.83% in the online grocery market from 2025 to 2025 [16]. Overall Market Outlook - Given the S&P 500's record highs, Amazon's stock is unlikely to remain flat or decline further by year-end, as signs of business recovery are becoming evident [18].

Core Insights - Amazon is on track to potentially reach a $3 trillion market capitalization due to strong earnings growth and increased use of artificial intelligence across its cloud and e-commerce sectors [1] Group 1: Amazon's Cloud Computing and AI Integration - Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the largest cloud platform globally, providing a wide range of solutions for businesses, including AI development tools [2] - AWS has developed its own data center chips, Trainium 2, which offer up to 40% better price performance than competitors, driving strong demand and sales [3] - AWS provides a variety of large language models (LLMs) through its Bedrock platform, with the in-house designed Nova model gaining popularity due to its customizability [4] Group 2: Financial Performance and Growth - AWS generated a record $30.8 billion in revenue in Q2 2025, marking a 17% year-over-year increase, contributing significantly to Amazon's overall revenue of $167.7 billion [5] - The AI segment within AWS is reportedly generating multi-billion-dollar annual revenue with triple-digit percentage growth year-over-year [6] - AWS accounted for 57% of Amazon's operating income of $37.5 billion in Q2, highlighting its role as the profit engine of the company [7] Group 3: Retail Segment Efficiency and Profitability - Amazon is enhancing efficiency in its retail segment by restructuring its U.S. logistics network, resulting in a 12% reduction in average travel distance for packages and a 15% decrease in handling touches [8] - The company is also leveraging AI in retail, with tools like Project Private Investigator to reduce return rates and an AI shopping assistant named Rufus to aid customer decision-making [9] Group 4: Earnings and Market Valuation - Amazon reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.68 in Q2, a 33% increase year-over-year, exceeding Wall Street's expectations by 26% [11] - The current P/E ratio of Amazon is 33.7, slightly above the Nasdaq-100 technology index's P/E of 32.9, indicating fair valuation relative to peers [12] - Wall Street estimates suggest Amazon could achieve an EPS of $7.54 by 2026, requiring a 15.4% stock price increase to maintain its current P/E ratio [13] Group 5: Future Growth Potential - To justify a $3 trillion valuation, Amazon would need to grow its annualized EPS by 10.3% by 2027, a target deemed achievable based on recent performance trends [15] - Amazon has consistently beaten Wall Street's EPS estimates by over 20% since early 2024, suggesting a strong potential for continued growth [16] - If Amazon's P/E ratio returns to its 12-month average of 38.5, this could result in an additional 14% upside in stock value without further EPS growth [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the cloud services industry, particularly for AWS, with projected growth rates of 18%-20% in the coming years [1][4]. Core Insights - AWS shows strong order backlog and demand in both AI and non-AI sectors, similar to competitors Azure and GCP [1][3]. - NVIDIA's Blackwell chip procurement by the top four cloud providers is expected to reach $65-70 billion in 2025, with AWS capturing a smaller share compared to Microsoft and Google due to its in-house chip strategy [1][5]. - AWS's profit margin has decreased by 600 basis points due to stock incentive adjustments, but revenue growth is expected to rebound to around 30% in the upcoming quarters [8]. Summary by Sections AWS Growth and Performance - AWS is projected to achieve growth rates of 18%-19% in the second half of 2025 and 20% in the first half of 2026, with AI companies contributing significantly to revenue growth [1][4]. - Annual recurring revenue from AI companies is expected to increase from $1 billion to $4-5 billion, contributing approximately 2% to overall growth [4]. Capital Expenditure and Strategy - Capital expenditures are primarily directed towards AWS for power and data center construction, with an annualized increase of approximately $30 billion [2][9]. - There are indications that AWS may introduce AMD instance services, which could diversify its offerings but still rely heavily on NVIDIA's dominance in the cloud market [7]. Competitive Landscape - Meta's advancements in GPU machine learning are expected to enhance user engagement and profitability, with EPS projections for 2026 reaching $33, potentially rising to $35 with strong performance [12]. - Google's cloud business is performing well, with partnerships with AI-native companies and advancements in technologies like Gemini, positioning it for significant growth in 2026 [14][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [6][30]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong retail growth, with revenue of $167.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13% [10]. - Advertising revenue grew by 22% year-on-year, primarily driven by sponsored products, contributing to improved profit margins [2][16]. - The cloud business (AWS) continued its growth momentum with revenue of $30.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, despite facing supply constraints [3][19]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Q2 revenue reached $167.7 billion, surpassing company guidance and Bloomberg consensus expectations of 9.6% growth, with operating profit of $19.2 billion, up 31% year-on-year [10]. - The company expects Q3 revenue to be between $174 billion and $179.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10%-11% [10]. Retail and Other Businesses - Retail and other business revenue was $136.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%, with advertising revenue contributing significantly [2][16]. - The operating profit margin for retail and other businesses reached 6.6%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, due to improved logistics efficiency [2][16]. Cloud Business - AWS revenue was $30.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, with an operating profit margin of 32.9% [3][19]. - The company is experiencing supply constraints due to chip shortages and delivery delays, which are expected to persist in the coming quarters [3][19]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to $706.3 billion, $776.9 billion, and $856.2 billion, respectively [30]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period have been slightly reduced to $70.9 billion, $82.6 billion, and $99.0 billion, respectively [30]. Key Financial Metrics - The company is projected to achieve an EPS of $6.70 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 32 [5][32]. - The operating margin is expected to improve to 11% by 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 20% in 2025 [5][32].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue of $167.7 billion, a 12% increase year over year, excluding foreign exchange impacts [6][29] - Operating income was $19.2 billion, up 31% year over year, exceeding guidance by $1.7 billion [6][30] - Trailing twelve-month free cash flow was $18.2 billion [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America segment revenue was $100.1 billion, an 11% increase year over year [30] - International segment revenue was $36.8 billion, also an 11% increase year over year, excluding foreign exchange impacts [30] - Worldwide paid units grew by 12% year over year, with third-party seller unit mix reaching 62%, the highest ever [31][32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company saw strong customer adoption of perishables, with 75% of users being first-time shoppers for perishables on Amazon [8] - The recent Prime Day event was the largest ever, with record sales and Prime sign-ups [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving delivery speed and efficiency, with a 40% increase in orders moving through direct lanes year over year [11] - Investments in robotics and automation are aimed at enhancing cost efficiencies and customer experiences [13][14] - The advertising segment generated $15.7 billion in revenue, growing 22% year over year, indicating a strong performance in connecting brands with customers [15][36] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on pricing and demand but noted no significant demand decline in the first half of the year [10][45] - AWS grew 17.5% year over year, with a focus on generative AI and cloud transition for organizations [18][37] - The company anticipates continued growth in AWS, driven by demand for AI services and infrastructure modernization [85] Other Important Information - The company is expanding same-day and next-day delivery services to more rural communities [12] - Project Kuiper aims to address broadband connectivity for underserved households, with significant enterprise and government interest already [26][70] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on how tariffs are being absorbed across suppliers, Amazon, and consumers? - Management indicated uncertainty about future tariff impacts and noted that demand has not diminished in the first half of the year [44][45] Question: Regarding AWS, what are the reasons for the growth gap compared to competitors? - Management highlighted AWS's significant market leadership and emphasized the importance of customer experience and operational performance [46][49] Question: What is the backlog number for AWS? - The backlog at the end of the quarter was $195 billion, up 25% year over year [53] Question: What is the status of Project Kuiper and its launch timeline? - Project Kuiper is expected to launch commercially later this year or early next year, with strong interest from enterprises and governments [70] Question: How does the company view the potential of Alexa Plus in terms of engagement and revenue? - Management expressed optimism about Alexa Plus's capabilities and its potential to drive increased engagement and revenue through enhanced user experiences [60]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's CoPoS packaging technology mass production timeline is delayed from 2027 to 2029-2030 due to technical challenges, which may influence NVIDIA's plans for its Rubin Ultra GPU and shift focus to multi-chip module architecture [1] Group 1: TSMC's CoPoS Technology - TSMC's CoPoS (chip-on-panel-on-substrate) technology aims to enhance area utilization through larger panel sizes (e.g., 310x310mm) to meet AI GPU demands from clients like NVIDIA [1] - The delay in CoPoS mass production is attributed to immaturity in technology, particularly in managing panel and wafer discrepancies, larger area warpage control, and additional redistribution layers (RDL) [1] Group 2: Impact on AI Industry - Nomura's analysis suggests that TSMC may redirect its 2026 chip backend capital expenditures towards other technologies such as WMCM and SoIC, with CoWoS capacity allocation becoming a critical monitoring point [1] - The postponement of CoPoS could lead NVIDIA to adopt a multi-chip module architecture similar to Amazon's Trainium 2 design for its 2027 product launch [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura indicates that TSMC's CoPoS packaging technology mass production timeline may be delayed from the original plan of 2027 to 2029-2030, potentially forcing NVIDIA to shift its chip design strategy for the Rubin Ultra GPU to an MCM architecture to avoid limitations of single-module packaging [2][3][4]. Group 1: TSMC's CoPoS Technology Delay - TSMC's CoPoS (chip-on-panel-on-substrate) technology aims to enhance area utilization through larger panel sizes (e.g., 310x310mm) to meet AI GPU demands [4]. - The delay in CoPoS mass production is attributed to technical challenges, particularly in managing panel and wafer discrepancies, warpage control, and additional redistribution layers (RDL) [4][5]. - The expected mass production timeline has shifted from 2027 to potentially late 2029 [4][5]. Group 2: Impact on NVIDIA's Product Strategy - The delay in CoPoS may compel NVIDIA to adopt an MCM architecture for the Rubin Ultra GPU, distributing four Rubin GPUs across two modules connected via a substrate [5][6]. - This adjustment is similar to Amazon's AWS Trainium 2 design, which utilizes CoWoS-R and MCM to integrate computing chips and HBM on a single substrate [6]. - While this change may help NVIDIA mitigate delays, it could also increase design complexity and costs [6]. Group 3: TSMC's Capital Expenditure Adjustments - TSMC's capital expenditure allocation may shift towards wafer-level multi-chip modules (WMCM) and system-on-chip (SoIC) technologies due to the CoPoS delay [7]. - Nomura maintains its forecast for TSMC's CoWoS capacity, expecting monthly wafer production to reach 70,000 and 90,000-100,000 by the end of 2025 and 2026, respectively [7]. - The report warns that market expectations for WMCM may be overly optimistic, while those for SoIC are more conservative [8].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's CoPoS packaging technology mass production is likely delayed until 2029-2030, which may force NVIDIA to adjust its chip design strategy towards alternative architectures [1][2][3] Group 1: TSMC's CoPoS Technology Delay - TSMC's CoPoS technology, originally scheduled for mass production in 2027, is now expected to be delayed until the second half of 2029 due to technical challenges [2][3] - Key challenges include managing differences between panels and wafers, controlling warpage over larger areas, and addressing more redistribution layers (RDL) [2] Group 2: Impact on NVIDIA's Product Strategy - NVIDIA's Rubin Ultra GPU, initially requiring up to eight wafer-sized CoWoS-L interconnects, may need to shift to a multi-chip module (MCM) architecture due to the CoPoS delay [3] - This adjustment is similar to Amazon's Trainium 2 design, which utilizes CoWoS-R and MCM to integrate computing chips and HBM on a single substrate [3] Group 3: TSMC's Capital Expenditure Adjustments - TSMC's capital expenditure for the latter half of 2026 may increasingly focus on wafer-level multi-chip modules (WMCM) and system-on-chip (SoIC) technologies due to the CoPoS delay [4][5] - The report maintains forecasts for TSMC's CoWoS capacity, expecting monthly wafer production to reach 70,000 and 90,000-100,000 by the end of 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]

Core Insights - IBM and Amazon are key players in the global cloud computing industry, with IBM focusing on hybrid cloud and AI solutions, while Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the most comprehensive on-demand cloud platform [1][2][3] Group 1: IBM's Position - IBM is expected to benefit from strong demand for hybrid cloud and AI, which will enhance its Software and Consulting segments [4] - The company has partnered with NVIDIA to scale AI workloads and enhance its hybrid cloud infrastructure, introducing new capabilities like content-aware storage [4][5] - Despite growth potential, IBM faces intense competition from AWS and Microsoft Azure, with pricing pressures impacting margins and profitability [6] Group 2: Amazon's Position - AWS is the leading provider of cloud infrastructure services, with a growing customer base and strategic expansions like the Bedrock platform for enterprise AI [7][10] - Amazon is investing in AI infrastructure, including custom AI silicon, to improve decision-making and expand its global service capabilities [10] - However, AWS faces challenges such as capacity constraints in AI services and regulatory complexities in global expansion [11] Group 3: Financial Performance and Estimates - IBM's 2025 sales and EPS estimates imply year-over-year growth of 5.5% and 6%, respectively, with static EPS estimates over the past 60 days [12] - Amazon's 2025 sales and EPS estimates suggest year-over-year growth of 8.9% and 12.7%, with EPS estimates trending upward [14] - Over the past year, IBM's stock has gained 52.6%, outperforming the industry, while Amazon's stock rose 16.9% [15] Group 4: Valuation and Investment Outlook - IBM's shares trade at a lower price/earnings ratio of 25.05 compared to Amazon's 33.38, making IBM appear more attractive from a valuation perspective [16] - Both companies expect sales and profits to improve in 2025, with long-term earnings growth expectations of 4.3% for IBM and 21.4% for Amazon [18] - Despite IBM's better price performance and valuation metrics, Amazon's consistent revenue and EPS growth position it as a potentially better investment option currently [18]