Core Insights - Aletheia Capital's report highlights a significant underestimation of the demand for advanced packaging, particularly CoWoS, driven by emerging AI applications [1] - The report predicts a substantial capacity shortfall for TSMC's CoWoS technology, with a projected gap of 400,000 units in 2026 and 700,000 units in 2027, indicating a severe supply-demand imbalance [1] Group 1: Demand Drivers - The growth in GPU shipments and the rapid expansion of photomask sizes are identified as the two main drivers for CoWoS demand [1] - New devices such as server CPUs, high-end PCs, and gaming console chips are expected to adopt CoWoS technology starting in the second half of this year, with a significant acceleration anticipated by 2026 [1] Group 2: Beneficiaries - Aletheia names six Taiwanese companies—TSMC, ASE Technology Holding, Kyec, ChipMOS, Wistron NeWeb, and Hongjing Precision—as beneficiaries of the positive industry trend, recommending a "buy" for these stocks [1] - TSMC's CoWoS-dependent chips include products from Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, and Broadcom, indicating a broad reliance on TSMC's advanced packaging capabilities [2] Group 3: Capacity Expansion Challenges - Despite TSMC's plans to quadruple CoWoS capacity between 2024 and 2027, this expansion is expected to fall short of the rapidly growing demand, prompting customers to seek assistance from packaging manufacturers [2] - Companies like ASE and Amkor are expected to play crucial roles in packaging for new products, with significant increases in CoWoS demand projected between 2025 and 2027 [2] Group 4: Testing and Outsourcing - Kyec is set to benefit from strong growth in testing services for Broadcom's AI ASICs starting in 2026, as well as from TSMC's outsourcing of wafer probing tests [2] - Wistron NeWeb is also expected to gain from TSMC's outsourcing strategy, as packaging manufacturers increasingly adopt Wistron NeWeb's solutions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on TSMC (TSM.US) with a target price of NT$1,275, citing significant increases in CoWoS capacity projections for 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 1: TSMC Capacity Expansion - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to reach 95,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026 and further increase to 112,000 wafers per month by the end of 2027, which is a notable upgrade from previous forecasts [1] - The expansion is primarily driven by the planned capacity construction of the AP8 factory, expected to commence production in mid-2026, alongside sustained demand from key clients such as NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD [1] - From the second half of 2026, full-stack CoWoS packaging orders for non-AI products will begin to shift to OSAT partners, mainly ASE, allowing TSMC to focus more on the CoW (Chip-on-Wafer) segment [1] Group 2: Client Demand Insights - Broadcom is projected to have a CoWoS allocation of 185,000 wafers in 2026, representing a 93% year-over-year increase, driven mainly by demand from Google's TPU project [2] - Morgan Stanley estimates that TPU shipments will reach 2.5 million units in 2026, a 38% increase year-over-year, with additional contributions from Meta's first CoWoS-based ASIC (Athena) and OpenAI's ASIC projects [2] - NVIDIA's demand is expected to remain robust in the first half of 2026 due to increased chip sizes and strong B300 demand, with an estimated production of 2.9 million Rubin GPUs [3] Group 3: AMD's Growth Dynamics - AMD's CoWoS demand is expected to remain stable in 2025 but will grow in 2026 with the ramp-up of MI400/MI450 series and Venice CPU, which utilize HBM and CoWoS-S packaging [4] - The adoption rate of MI400/450 (using CoWoS-L) will be a key variable for AMD's growth trajectory, while the company plans to expand 2.5D/wafers-level fan-out packaging applications in gaming GPUs and high-end server/PC CPUs in 2026/27 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The historic alliance between Nvidia and Intel marks a significant shift in the competitive landscape of the semiconductor industry, focusing on AI infrastructure and personal computing products through a $5 billion investment from Nvidia into Intel [2][6][10]. Group 1: Partnership Details - Nvidia and Intel will collaborate on three main areas: integrating Nvidia's NVLink technology for seamless CPU-GPU connectivity, customizing x86 architecture CPUs for Nvidia's AI platform, and launching a new x86 SoC with integrated Nvidia RTX GPU for the PC consumer market [6][10]. - Nvidia's investment of $5 billion at a price of $23.28 per share has led to a nearly 30% surge in Intel's stock price, raising its market capitalization to $129.5 billion with a year-to-date increase of 47.53% [6][8]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The partnership provides Intel with a crucial entry point into the AI market, which it has been striving to penetrate, while also enhancing its cash flow amidst financial pressures [10][11]. - Nvidia's role as a core player in the AI server market positions Intel's CPUs as potential standard components in Nvidia's system solutions, thereby increasing Intel's relevance in the AI ecosystem [10][11]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The collaboration alters the competitive dynamics, putting pressure on rivals such as AMD and ARM, as the combined strengths of Nvidia's GPUs and Intel's CPUs create a formidable alliance [14][15]. - Nvidia's CEO emphasized that the partnership does not hinder its ongoing development of ARM-based products, indicating a continued commitment to multiple architectures while leveraging Intel's x86 ecosystem for broader market penetration [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Nvidia and Intel marks a significant strategic partnership aimed at expanding their market presence in the AI era, with Nvidia investing $5 billion in Intel to enhance their technological integration and market reach [5][30]. Group 1: Investment and Market Impact - Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in Intel, equivalent to approximately 356 billion RMB, through stock acquisition at $23.28 per share [5]. - Following the announcement, Intel's stock price surged by 30% in pre-market trading, reaching its highest point in nearly a year [9]. - The partnership aims to tap into a market projected to be worth nearly $50 billion annually, with Nvidia focusing on expanding its data center market share, currently valued at $30 billion [12][15]. Group 2: Technological Integration - Nvidia plans to integrate its NVLink technology into Intel's systems to enhance Intel's competitiveness in the data center market, while Intel will incorporate Nvidia's GPUs into its X86 processors to penetrate the integrated graphics laptop segment, which has a market size exceeding $20 billion [11][12]. - Both companies have been collaborating on solutions and architectural designs for nearly a year, indicating a deep commitment to this partnership [14]. Group 3: Political and Strategic Context - The collaboration is seen as a strategic move for Intel, which has faced significant challenges, including leadership changes and production delays, and is now positioned to leverage Nvidia's support to revitalize its market standing [8][20]. - Nvidia's investment is also viewed as a way to strengthen its ties with the U.S. government, which has been supportive of Intel's initiatives to boost domestic chip manufacturing [22][24]. - The partnership may help Nvidia navigate the complexities of U.S.-China relations, as it seeks to balance its business interests with political pressures [25][26]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Nvidia's CEO expressed confidence that the investment will yield substantial returns in the future, highlighting the financial strength of Nvidia, which reported $56.79 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of the end of Q2 2026 [28]. - The collaboration is characterized as a "giant marriage" where both companies have distinct motivations, with Intel gaining a foothold in the AI market and Nvidia securing long-term political benefits [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia announced a significant investment of $5 billion in Intel, aimed at mutual market expansion and collaboration in technology [1][4]. Investment Details - Nvidia will acquire Intel shares at a price of $23.28 per share, totaling an investment of $5 billion [1]. - The investment is seen as a strategic move to strengthen both companies' positions in the semiconductor market [1][4]. Market Opportunities - Nvidia plans to integrate its NVLink technology into Intel's data center offerings, targeting a data center CPU market valued at $30 billion [3]. - Intel aims to incorporate Nvidia's GPUs into its X86 processors, potentially expanding into the integrated graphics laptop market, which has an annual shipment of 150 million units and a market size exceeding $20 billion [3]. Strategic Collaboration - The collaboration has been in discussion for nearly a year, with both companies' technical teams working on solutions and architectural designs [4]. - Intel's CEO emphasized the urgency of this partnership from his first day in office, indicating a cultural shift within Intel to align with Nvidia [4]. Political Context - The partnership may have political implications, as Intel has faced challenges in the semiconductor market and is seen as a key player in the U.S. government's push for domestic manufacturing [7][9]. - Nvidia's investment aligns with the U.S. government's support for Intel, which has received over $10 billion in funding from the government [10]. Financial Position - Nvidia's financial strength is highlighted by its cash reserves of $56.79 billion as of the end of Q2 2026, allowing for this investment without significant strain [13]. - The collaboration is expected to yield substantial returns for Nvidia, as stated by its founder [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent high interest in NVIDIA's new liquid cooling solution, specifically the microchannel lid, and its implications for the semiconductor industry [2][4]. Group 1: Investment Bank Perspectives - JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley provided detailed analyses of the microchannel lid, highlighting its efficiency in heat dissipation compared to traditional cooling methods [5]. - The microchannel lid integrates a heat spreader and cold plate, allowing for efficient heat transfer and cooling, which is crucial as chip power requirements increase [8][11]. - The adoption of the microchannel lid could increase the number of quick disconnects (QD) in VR series compute trays to at least 12, compared to 8 in the existing GB300 compute trays [12]. - In the short term, the impact on liquid cooling suppliers is limited, as a significant portion of NVIDIA's GPU shipments will still use traditional cold plates [13]. - Currently, ODMs are in the testing phase for the microchannel lid, with a decision expected in one to two months [14]. Group 2: Industry Perspectives - The microchannel lid concept was discussed in the industry as early as late August, with market speculation about its potential use in NVIDIA's Rubin GPU [15]. - Jentech, a key supplier for NVIDIA's lid products, is closely tied to NVIDIA's technology iterations and order fluctuations, which can influence its stock performance [16]. - The maturity of different cooling technologies ranks single-phase cold plates as significantly ahead, followed by dual-phase cold plates and immersion cooling, with microchannel lids lagging behind [18]. - Cold plate suppliers like AVC indicated that the microchannel lid may not be adopted until the release of the Rubin Ultra model, as current production timelines do not support its implementation [18]. - Companies are currently sending samples for the microchannel lid, but sample approval does not guarantee immediate procurement [19]. - Key players in the lid and cold plate sectors, such as Jentech and AVC, are conducting advanced research on microchannel lids, but it remains uncertain which company will dominate the market [21]. - Besides microchannel lids, 3D printing is also emerging as a cutting-edge research direction in the cooling field, offering high precision and customization capabilities [21].

Core Insights - AI-driven advancements are pushing the continuous iteration of liquid cooling technology, particularly with the introduction of the microchannel liquid cooling plate (MLCP) technology, which is expected to become a strategic material for cooling solutions in AI servers [1][2] Group 1: Technology Development - The power consumption of the Rubin GPU is expected to increase from 1.8kW to 2.3kW, exceeding the current cooling plate capacity, prompting NVIDIA to implement MLCP by the second half of 2026 [2] - MLCP technology integrates the metal cover on the chip with the liquid cooling plate, featuring microchannels that allow cooling liquid to flow directly over the chip, enhancing heat transfer efficiency and reducing volume [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The cost of MLCP is projected to be 3 to 5 times higher than existing cooling solutions, with manufacturing costs potentially increasing by 5 to 7 times compared to the current Blackwell cover if GPUs fully transition to MLCP [1][2] - Boyd, a supplier for NVIDIA, has delivered 5 million liquid cooling plates to large-scale data centers, indicating a growing demand for high-performance AI computing cooling solutions [2]

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA has launched the Rubin CPX, a new GPU designed for large-scale contextual reasoning, which significantly enhances processing capabilities in AI applications [1][2] Group 1: Product Launch and Features - The Rubin CPX GPU is integrated into the NVIDIA MGX rack system, which includes 144 Rubin CPX GPUs, 144 Rubin GPUs, and 36 Vera CPUs, providing 8 EFLOPS of NVFP4 computing power [1][2] - The system features 100TB of high-speed memory and 1.7PB/s memory bandwidth, offering three times the attention mechanism processing capability compared to the NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 system [1][2] Group 2: Market Implications and Predictions - The value of PCBs supporting the CPX is expected to increase, alongside new PCB demand from the CX9 network card, leading to significant growth in the VR NVL144 CPX PCB value [2] - NVIDIA is advancing orthogonal backplane development and may adopt M9+Q materials, which could potentially double the PCB value in a single rack [2] - The technology for ASIC chip PCBs is evolving from high-layer to HDI, with future advancements expected from M8 to M9, continuously enhancing value [2] Group 3: Industry Trends and Demand - Micron has announced a price increase of 20%-30% for storage products, affecting all DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR4, and LPDDR5 products, with a halt in pricing expected for one week [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has added 23 Chinese entities, including 13 integrated circuit companies, to its entity list, which may create opportunities for domestic alternatives in analog chips [2] - The surge in downstream inference demand is driving strong growth in ASIC demand, with NVIDIA's technology upgrades boosting both PCB value and volume [2] Group 4: Sector Outlook - The demand for AI PCBs remains robust, with domestic PCB manufacturers likely to benefit from slow overseas expansion [4] - The overall outlook for various sectors is positive, with consumer electronics, PCB, semiconductor chips, and related industries showing stable to accelerating growth [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the electronic industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6 months [1]. Core Insights - The introduction of the Rubin CPX, which offers approximately 30 PFLOPS of computing power and is designed for "million-token" inference scenarios, marks a significant advancement in NVIDIA's product line [2][7]. - The launch of Rubin CPX is expected to accelerate global demand for computing power, particularly in AI applications that require long context generation, thus enhancing the value chain across various related sectors [3][7]. - The Rubin CPX system, which integrates with Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs, aims to optimize resource utilization and reduce inference costs while improving response times [7]. Industry Trends - The report highlights a shift in the computing infrastructure towards a new phase characterized by "context and generation collaboration," driven by the demand for long-context inference and multimodal video generation [3][7]. - Companies within the supply chain, including those involved in PCB, copper cables, optical chips, and server manufacturing, are expected to benefit from the advancements brought by Rubin CPX [3][7].

Group 1 - Nvidia will hold its next GTC conference from March 16 to 19, 2026, in San Jose, USA, which is considered a significant event in the global AI sector [1] - The upcoming conference is expected to attract developers, entrepreneurs, and tech enthusiasts from around the world, indicating its growing importance [3] - Key highlights of the next conference will include the Rubin GPU and Vera CPU, which are rumored to outperform the current Blackwell chip and support large-scale AI training [4] Group 2 - Nvidia is expanding beyond hardware with initiatives like the AI factory operating system Dynamo, the robot model Isaac GR00T, and the physics engine Newton, aiming to create a comprehensive intelligent ecosystem [4] - Nvidia's stock has surged over 50% this year, with a market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion, making it one of the most valuable tech companies globally [4] - The rapid development of AI technology raises concerns about job displacement and the ability of the general public to keep pace, which may be addressed at the upcoming conference [4] Group 3 - Chinese tech companies like Huawei and Cambricon are rapidly developing their own AI chips, indicating a competitive landscape in the AI sector [4] - The competition in technology ultimately benefits humanity as a whole, highlighting the positive impact of innovation [4] - The anticipation for the next GTC conference suggests that it will be a significant event for technological advancements and industry insights [4]