Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of 130.90 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.63 billion yuan, also up 6.25% year-on-year [4][6]. - The revenue from Moutai liquor grew by 7% year-on-year in Q3 2025, while the revenue from series liquor declined by 34% [4]. - The report highlights that the direct sales channel saw a revenue drop of 15%, primarily due to a more than 50% decline in revenue from the "i Moutai" platform [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 39.81 billion yuan, a 0.35% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 19.22 billion yuan, up 0.48% year-on-year [4]. - The net profit margin and gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 were 52.08% and 91.29%, respectively, showing slight year-on-year declines [5]. - The company expects net profits of 90.46 billion yuan, 97.32 billion yuan, and 105.20 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 72.24 yuan, 77.71 yuan, and 84.01 yuan [6][9]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenue for 2025 is 184.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2% [9]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of approximately 92% for the upcoming years, indicating stable profitability [9][11]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 31.3% in 2025, decreasing gradually to 24.6% by 2027 [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is maintained as "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company has actively slowed down its growth in Q3, aligning with market conditions, and the performance is in line with expectations. The total revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 130.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 64.63 billion yuan, up 6.25% year-on-year [1][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For Q1-Q3 2025, the revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor was 110.51 billion yuan and 17.88 billion yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.28% for Moutai liquor but a decline of 7.78% for series liquor. In Q3 2025, Moutai liquor revenue was 34.92 billion yuan, up 7.26%, while series liquor revenue dropped significantly by 34.01% to 4.12 billion yuan [1][2] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 91.29%, and the net margin was 52.08%. In Q3 2025, the gross margin slightly decreased to 91.28%, while the net margin fell to 50.97% [3] Cash Flow and Expenses - Operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2025 decreased by 14.01% to 38.20 billion yuan, but in Q3 2025, it saw a significant increase of 221.53% to 25.08 billion yuan due to a low base effect [3] - The sales and management expense ratios for Q1-Q3 2025 were 3.42% and 4.29%, respectively. In Q3 2025, these ratios improved to 3.06% and 4.64% [3] Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to relax its annual targets slightly due to the proactive slowdown in Q3. The projected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 5.38%, 5.16%, and 5.22%, with net profit growth rates of 5.15%, 5.22%, and 5.29% [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 72.18 yuan, 75.95 yuan, and 79.97 yuan, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19.80X, 18.82X, and 17.87X, indicating a favorable valuation [4][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 1,426.74 CNY and projected PE ratios of 20, 19, and 18 for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [4][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a cumulative revenue of 130.90 billion CNY and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.63 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.32% and 6.25% respectively. In Q3 alone, revenue was 39.81 billion CNY, with a net profit of 19.22 billion CNY, showing a modest growth of 0.35% and 0.48% year-on-year [1][2]. - The growth in revenue for Moutai liquor primarily came from non-standard products and cultural innovative products, while series liquor experienced a significant decline. The direct sales channel was notably impacted by the "i Moutai" platform, which saw a revenue drop of 57.24% [2][3]. - The company has adopted a conservative approach to expense management during this contraction period, maintaining a stable profit margin. The gross margin for Q3 was 91.44%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.21 percentage points [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 130.90 billion CNY, with a net profit of 64.63 billion CNY, both showing a growth of over 6% year-on-year. In Q3, the revenue was 39.81 billion CNY, with a net profit of 19.22 billion CNY, indicating a slight increase compared to the previous year [1][2]. Product Performance - The main revenue from liquor in Q3 was 39.05 billion CNY, with Moutai liquor contributing 34.92 billion CNY (up 7.26% year-on-year) and series liquor dropping to 4.12 billion CNY (down 34.00% year-on-year). The decline in series liquor is attributed to pricing pressures and weak demand [2]. Expense Management - The company has kept its expense growth in check, with a sales expense ratio of 3.06% and a management expense ratio of 4.54% in Q3. The net profit margin for Q3 was 48.29%, reflecting a stable profitability despite the challenges faced [3]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 90.59 billion CNY, 95.20 billion CNY, and 100.36 billion CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 5.1% to 5.4% [4][5].

证券简称：贵州茅台 证券代码：600519 编号：临 2025－040 贵州茅台酒股份有限公司 2025 年第三季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 贵州茅台酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据上海证券交易所《上 市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》之《第十二号——酒制造》 的相关规定，现将公司 2025 年第三季度主要经营数据（未经审计）公告如 下： 一、经营情况 注：本期国内增加的经销商均为系列酒经销商。 特此公告。 贵州茅台酒股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 10 月 30 日 1 注：年初至报告期末，公司通过"i 茅台"数字营销平台实现酒类不含税收入 1,269,174.00 万元。 二、经销商变动情况 单位：个 | 区域名称 | 报告期末经销商数量 | 年初至报告期末增加数量 | 年初至报告期末减少数量 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国内 | 2,325 | 205 | | 23 | | 国外 | 121 | 17 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [9][59]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector shows marginal improvement in sales during the double festival period, although it remains under pressure year-on-year. Inventory levels are slightly decreasing but still high, leading to anticipated price pressures as companies focus on controlling volume to maintain prices [6][57]. - The consumer goods and new consumption sectors are recovering, with significant increases in cross-regional mobility during the National Day holiday, reaching 2.432 billion people, a historical high. Retail and catering sales during this period grew by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend for the restaurant chain industry [7][58]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the tea beverage sector, driven by high travel rates and promotional activities, suggesting a focus on companies like Mixue, Cha Bai Dao, and Gu Ming [7][58]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The report notes the official release of a public standard for the Fen Yang production area and reports on the production and revenue figures for the liquor and tea manufacturing industries [1][18]. Company News - Key developments include Moutai's launch of "instant delivery" services and the acquisition of Fresh Beer by Mixue Group for 297 million yuan [1][18]. Key Company Feedback - The report provides a detailed analysis of stock performance for key companies in the food and beverage sector, highlighting both gainers and losers over the past week [30][31]. Core Data Trends - The liquor industry saw a cumulative production of 4.145 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 7.72% year-on-year, while revenue reached 796.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3% [34][34]. - The seasoning industry is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to increase from 259.5 billion yuan in 2014 to 687.1 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 10.23% [37][39]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend leaders in the liquor sector such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as flexible stocks that have corrected to attractive levels [6][57]. - In the consumer goods sector, attention is drawn to companies like Ximai Food, Youyou Food, and Dongpeng Beverage, which are expected to benefit from ongoing recovery trends [7][58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported total revenue of 39.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.26%, and a net profit of 18.555 billion yuan, growing 5.25% year-on-year [1][2] - The revenue from Moutai liquor in Q2 2025 was 32.032 billion yuan, up 10.99% year-on-year, while the revenue from series liquor was 6.740 billion yuan, down 6.53% year-on-year [2] - The direct sales channel saw a revenue increase of 16.52% year-on-year, while the wholesale channel grew by 1.48% year-on-year [2] - The company’s gross profit margin in Q2 2025 was 90.42%, slightly down by 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 49.53%, down 1.07 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 94.010 billion yuan, 99.030 billion yuan, and 104.671 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 0.5%, 3.9%, and 6.4% from previous estimates [4] Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 190.035 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.13% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 94.010 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.02% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 74.84 yuan [5] Financial Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 19 for 2025, decreasing to 17 by 2027 [5][14] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 35.97% in 2025, gradually declining to 33.13% by 2027 [5][13] Market Position - The company has demonstrated resilience in maintaining revenue growth despite external challenges such as the "ban on alcohol" policies affecting industry demand [2] - The number of domestic distributors increased to 2,280 by the end of Q2 2025, with a net addition of 160 distributors [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Trading Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 5% to 15% from the current price [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 51.44 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit of 26.85 billion RMB, up 11.6% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [5][7]. - The revenue growth rate for the company's flagship product, Moutai liquor, was 9.7%, while the series liquor segment saw a growth of 18.3% [7]. - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 95.36 billion RMB, 103.96 billion RMB, and 112.8 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.6%, 9%, and 8.5% respectively [7][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, with a market capitalization of approximately 194.74 billion RMB and a current share price of 1550.20 RMB [1]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 86.22 billion RMB in 2023, with a projected EPS of 68.64 RMB [6]. - The gross profit margin for the reporting period was stable at 92.1%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points [7]. Market Strategy - The chairman emphasized optimizing the assessment of distributors, indicating a more proactive market strategy and improved engagement from distributors [7]. - The company is enhancing its ability to manage market demand fluctuations, contributing to a stable pricing environment for Moutai liquor [7]. Future Projections - The report forecasts a P/E ratio of 20, 19, and 17 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation outlook [7][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Trading Buy" with a target price of 1674 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 8% from the current price of 1550.20 CNY [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 51.44 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit of 26.85 billion CNY, up 11.6% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [5]. - The revenue growth for the flagship product, Moutai liquor, was 43.56 billion CNY, reflecting a 9.7% increase, while the series liquor segment saw a revenue of 7.02 billion CNY, up 18.3% [7]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its distributor assessment to enhance market engagement and service quality, which is expected to strengthen its competitive position [7]. Financial Summary - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 95.36 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6%, and further growth is expected to continue through 2027 [6][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 75.91 CNY for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 [6][7]. - The company has maintained a stable gross margin of 92.1%, with a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Market Position - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 194.74 billion CNY, with major shareholders including China Guizhou Moutai Distillery (Group) Co., Ltd., holding 54.07% [1]. - Institutional investors hold 7.1% of the circulating A-shares, while general corporations account for 70.7% [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8][13]. Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 514.43 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.67% [3]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 92.11%, with a net profit margin of 52.19% [3]. - The company aims for a revenue growth target of approximately 9% for 2025, with projected revenues of 1900.38 billion yuan, 2090.91 billion yuan, and 2307.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 1,547.00 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 19,433 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 12.56 billion shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 19.0% [2]. - The largest shareholder is the China Guizhou Moutai Distillery (Group) Co., Ltd. [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268.47 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 11.56% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s sales revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor in Q1 2025 was 435.57 billion yuan and 70.22 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.70% and 18.30% [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 74.95 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21 times [5][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8][13]. Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 514.43 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.67% [3]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 92.11%, with a net profit margin of 52.19% [3]. - The company aims for a revenue growth target of approximately 9% for 2025, with projected revenues of 1900.38 billion yuan, 2090.91 billion yuan, and 2307.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 1,547.00 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 19,433 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 12.56 billion shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 19.0% [2]. - The largest shareholder is the China Guizhou Moutai Distillery (Group) Co., Ltd. [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268.47 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 11.56% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s sales revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor in Q1 2025 was 435.57 billion yuan and 70.22 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.70% and 18.30% [4]. - The company’s direct sales accounted for 45.91% of total revenue, showing an increase of 3.58 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 74.95 yuan, 82.76 yuan, and 91.61 yuan respectively [5][9]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 22.54 in 2024 to 16.89 by 2027 [9].