Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported total revenue of 39.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.26%, and a net profit of 18.555 billion yuan, growing 5.25% year-on-year [1][2] - The revenue from Moutai liquor in Q2 2025 was 32.032 billion yuan, up 10.99% year-on-year, while the revenue from series liquor was 6.740 billion yuan, down 6.53% year-on-year [2] - The direct sales channel saw a revenue increase of 16.52% year-on-year, while the wholesale channel grew by 1.48% year-on-year [2] - The company’s gross profit margin in Q2 2025 was 90.42%, slightly down by 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 49.53%, down 1.07 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 94.010 billion yuan, 99.030 billion yuan, and 104.671 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 0.5%, 3.9%, and 6.4% from previous estimates [4] Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 190.035 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.13% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 94.010 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.02% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 74.84 yuan [5] Financial Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 19 for 2025, decreasing to 17 by 2027 [5][14] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 35.97% in 2025, gradually declining to 33.13% by 2027 [5][13] Market Position - The company has demonstrated resilience in maintaining revenue growth despite external challenges such as the "ban on alcohol" policies affecting industry demand [2] - The number of domestic distributors increased to 2,280 by the end of Q2 2025, with a net addition of 160 distributors [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8][13]. Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 514.43 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.67% [3]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 92.11%, with a net profit margin of 52.19% [3]. - The company aims for a revenue growth target of approximately 9% for 2025, with projected revenues of 1900.38 billion yuan, 2090.91 billion yuan, and 2307.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 1,547.00 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 19,433 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 12.56 billion shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 19.0% [2]. - The largest shareholder is the China Guizhou Moutai Distillery (Group) Co., Ltd. [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268.47 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 11.56% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s sales revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor in Q1 2025 was 435.57 billion yuan and 70.22 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.70% and 18.30% [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 74.95 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21 times [5][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8][13]. Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 514.43 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.67% [3]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 92.11%, with a net profit margin of 52.19% [3]. - The company aims for a revenue growth target of approximately 9% for 2025, with projected revenues of 1900.38 billion yuan, 2090.91 billion yuan, and 2307.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 1,547.00 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 19,433 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 12.56 billion shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 19.0% [2]. - The largest shareholder is the China Guizhou Moutai Distillery (Group) Co., Ltd. [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268.47 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 11.56% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s sales revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor in Q1 2025 was 435.57 billion yuan and 70.22 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.70% and 18.30% [4]. - The company’s direct sales accounted for 45.91% of total revenue, showing an increase of 3.58 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 74.95 yuan, 82.76 yuan, and 91.61 yuan respectively [5][9]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 22.54 in 2024 to 16.89 by 2027 [9].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's Q1 2025 performance shows steady growth, slightly exceeding expectations with revenue and profit growth [2] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 514.43 billion and 268.47 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 10.7% and 11.6% respectively [2] - Gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 91.97% and 54.89%, with a year-on-year change of -0.6 and +0.5 percentage points [2] - Sales and management expense ratios were 2.91% and 3.73%, with year-on-year changes of +0.5 and -0.7 percentage points [2] - Operating cash flow remained stable, with sales collection growth accelerating; operating net cash flow and sales collection were 88.09 billion and 561.44 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -4.1% and +21.4% [2] Product and Channel Performance - Moutai liquor's revenue was 435.57 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10%, while series liquor revenue was 70.22 billion yuan, increasing by 18% [3] - Direct sales channel revenue grew significantly, reaching 232.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%, with direct sales channel revenue accounting for 45.91% of total revenue [4] - International revenue showed rapid growth, with Q1 2025 domestic and international revenues at 494.61 billion and 11.19 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 10% and 38% respectively [4] Profit Forecast - The company aims for a total revenue growth of approximately 9% in 2025 and plans to complete fixed asset investments of 47.11 billion yuan, with achievable targets [5] - Expected EPS for 2025-2027 are 75.23, 81.66, and 88.00 yuan, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 21, 19, and 18 times [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai [4][6] Core Views - Guizhou Moutai's Q1 2025 performance exceeded market expectations, with total revenue of 51.443 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.847 billion yuan, up 11.56% year-on-year [1][4] - The company demonstrated strong brand resilience, achieving double-digit revenue growth despite overall weak demand [2] - The company's 2025 operational target is a revenue growth of approximately 9%, which is considered realistic and achievable [4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q1 2025, revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor reached 43.557 billion yuan and 7.022 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.7% and 18.3% [2] - Direct sales and wholesale channels contributed 23.220 billion yuan and 27.360 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting year-on-year increases of 20.19% and 3.93% [2] - The company's gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 91.97%, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.64 percentage points, while the net profit margin increased by 0.42 percentage points to 52.19% [3] Cash Flow and Financial Health - Sales cash receipts in Q1 2025 amounted to 56.144 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.37%, indicating strong cash flow performance [3] - The company reported a net operating cash flow of 8.809 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 4.1% year-on-year [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 94.489 billion yuan, 103.046 billion yuan, and 111.879 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 75.22 yuan, 82.03 yuan, and 89.06 yuan [4][5] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 21, 19, and 17 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a solid start in Q1 2025 with total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 514.4 billion and 268.5 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10.7% and 11.6% [1][2] - The growth is supported by strong performance in both product and channel segments, with notable increases in direct sales and series liquor revenue [2][3] - The company is expected to continue its high-quality growth trajectory, driven by its leading brand and quality, refined pricing strategies, and ongoing expansion into overseas markets [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor of 435.6 billion and 70.2 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.7% and 18.3% [2] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 92.1%, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 0.4 percentage points to 52.2% [3] - Sales collection reached 561.4 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.4% [3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted upwards to 74.83, 81.59, and 89.29 RMB, respectively, reflecting a 0.9% increase from previous estimates [4] - The target price for the company is set at 1,945.58 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 26x for 2025 [4][8] Market Position - The company is positioned as an industry leader with a market-oriented and refined governance structure, which is expected to support its high-quality development [4]

证券简称：贵州茅台 证券代码：600519 编号：临 2025－016 贵州茅台酒股份有限公司 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 贵州茅台酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据上海证券交易所《上 市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》之《第十二号——酒制造》 的相关规定，现将公司 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据（未经审计）公告如 下： 单位：万元 币种：人民币 项目 按产品档次 按销售渠道 按地区分部 茅台酒 系列酒 直销 批发 国内 国外 年初至报告期末的 主营业务收入 4,355,747.74 702,247.98 2,322,045.62 2,735,950.10 4,946,141.69 111,854.03 一、2025 年第一季度经营情况 注：年初至报告期末，公司通过"i 茅台"数字营销平台实现酒类不含 税收入 587,019.12 万元。 二、2025 年第一季度经销商变动情况 单位：个 | 区域名称 | 报告期末经销商数量 | 年初至报告期末增加数量 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 174.144 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.66%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.228 billion yuan, also up by 15.38% [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 51.022 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.77%, and a net profit of 25.401 billion yuan, which is a 16.21% increase compared to the previous year [1] Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, the revenue from Moutai liquor was 145.928 billion yuan, up 15.28% year-on-year, while the revenue from series liquor reached 24.684 billion yuan, increasing by 19.65% [2] - The growth in Moutai liquor revenue was driven by a volume increase of 10.22% and a price increase of 4.59%, attributed to a price hike of 20% in November 2023 [2] - The direct sales channel generated 74.843 billion yuan in revenue, up 11.32%, while the wholesale channel saw a revenue of 95.769 billion yuan, marking a 19.73% increase [2] Cash Flow and Profitability - The company's total revenue plus changes in contract liabilities for 2024 was 169.611 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.67%, with cash received from sales amounting to 182.645 billion yuan, up 11.57% [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 slightly decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 49.52%, while the gross margin fell by 0.04 percentage points to 92.08% [3] - The company maintained a cash dividend payout ratio of around 75% for 2024, down from 84% in 2023, aligning with its previously disclosed dividend plan for 2024-2026 [3] Strategic Outlook - The company continues to push forward with reforms, maintaining stable growth despite a slight decline in wholesale prices since 2025, indicating strong price control capabilities [4] - The long-term growth certainty remains strong, supported by a three-year dividend plan, with expected EPS of 73.98 yuan and 80.4 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 21 and 19 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 1,741.44 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 862.28 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.66% and 15.38% respectively, slightly exceeding previous operational announcements [1]. - The revenue growth target for 2025 is set at 9%, which is considered realistic given the current market pressures [3]. - The company has a strong brand moat and robust channel risk resistance, with a high certainty of achieving the 9% revenue growth target for 2025 [6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's main liquor business generated revenue of 1,706.12 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 92.01%, showing a year-on-year increase in volume of 13.73% and price increase of 1.9% [1][5]. - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 647 billion yuan for 2024, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 75% [3]. - The company’s revenue from Moutai liquor reached 1,459 billion yuan in 2024, with a volume increase of 10.22% and price increase of 4.59% [5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1,908.81 billion yuan, 2,070.44 billion yuan, and 2,239.13 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 9.6%, 8.5%, and 8.1% [6][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 948 billion yuan, 1,030 billion yuan, and 1,116 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 9.9%, 8.7%, and 8.4% respectively [7][8].