行业相对表现 2025 年 10 月 09 日 国庆出行数据较优，餐饮链表现改善 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | 预制菜明示，餐饮链催化增加》 2025-09-15 表现 1M 3M 12M 食品饮料(申万) -4.6 2.1 -6.1 沪深 300 4.6 16.3 17.3 ▌ 一周新闻速递 行业新闻：1）汾阳产区团标公用标识正式发布；2）1-8 月 江苏省白酒产量 10.82 万千升；3）1-8 月全国酒饮茶制造业 营收 10539.1 亿元。 公司新闻：1）贵州茅台：i 茅台开启"即时配送"；2）五 粮液：五粮液 501 古窖池中国白酒文化圣地开街；3）蜜雪集 团：2.97 亿元收购鲜啤福鹿家。 市场表现 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 1、《食品饮料行业周报：双节白酒 持续磨底，关注高景气赛道机会》 2025-09-29 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported total revenue of 39.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.26%, and a net profit of 18.555 billion yuan, growing 5.25% year-on-year [1][2] - The revenue from Moutai liquor in Q2 2025 was 32.032 billion yuan, up 10.99% year-on-year, while the revenue from series liquor was 6.740 billion yuan, down 6.53% year-on-year [2] - The direct sales channel saw a revenue increase of 16.52% year-on-year, while the wholesale channel grew by 1.48% year-on-year [2] - The company’s gross profit margin in Q2 2025 was 90.42%, slightly down by 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 49.53%, down 1.07 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 94.010 billion yuan, 99.030 billion yuan, and 104.671 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 0.5%, 3.9%, and 6.4% from previous estimates [4] Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 190.035 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.13% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 94.010 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.02% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 74.84 yuan [5] Financial Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 19 for 2025, decreasing to 17 by 2027 [5][14] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 35.97% in 2025, gradually declining to 33.13% by 2027 [5][13] Market Position - The company has demonstrated resilience in maintaining revenue growth despite external challenges such as the "ban on alcohol" policies affecting industry demand [2] - The number of domestic distributors increased to 2,280 by the end of Q2 2025, with a net addition of 160 distributors [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Trading Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 5% to 15% from the current price [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 51.44 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit of 26.85 billion RMB, up 11.6% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [5][7]. - The revenue growth rate for the company's flagship product, Moutai liquor, was 9.7%, while the series liquor segment saw a growth of 18.3% [7]. - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 95.36 billion RMB, 103.96 billion RMB, and 112.8 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.6%, 9%, and 8.5% respectively [7][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, with a market capitalization of approximately 194.74 billion RMB and a current share price of 1550.20 RMB [1]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 86.22 billion RMB in 2023, with a projected EPS of 68.64 RMB [6]. - The gross profit margin for the reporting period was stable at 92.1%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points [7]. Market Strategy - The chairman emphasized optimizing the assessment of distributors, indicating a more proactive market strategy and improved engagement from distributors [7]. - The company is enhancing its ability to manage market demand fluctuations, contributing to a stable pricing environment for Moutai liquor [7]. Future Projections - The report forecasts a P/E ratio of 20, 19, and 17 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation outlook [7][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Trading Buy" with a target price of 1674 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 8% from the current price of 1550.20 CNY [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 51.44 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit of 26.85 billion CNY, up 11.6% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [5]. - The revenue growth for the flagship product, Moutai liquor, was 43.56 billion CNY, reflecting a 9.7% increase, while the series liquor segment saw a revenue of 7.02 billion CNY, up 18.3% [7]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its distributor assessment to enhance market engagement and service quality, which is expected to strengthen its competitive position [7]. Financial Summary - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 95.36 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6%, and further growth is expected to continue through 2027 [6][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 75.91 CNY for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 [6][7]. - The company has maintained a stable gross margin of 92.1%, with a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Market Position - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 194.74 billion CNY, with major shareholders including China Guizhou Moutai Distillery (Group) Co., Ltd., holding 54.07% [1]. - Institutional investors hold 7.1% of the circulating A-shares, while general corporations account for 70.7% [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8][13]. Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 514.43 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.67% [3]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 92.11%, with a net profit margin of 52.19% [3]. - The company aims for a revenue growth target of approximately 9% for 2025, with projected revenues of 1900.38 billion yuan, 2090.91 billion yuan, and 2307.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 1,547.00 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 19,433 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 12.56 billion shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 19.0% [2]. - The largest shareholder is the China Guizhou Moutai Distillery (Group) Co., Ltd. [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268.47 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 11.56% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s sales revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor in Q1 2025 was 435.57 billion yuan and 70.22 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.70% and 18.30% [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 74.95 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21 times [5][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8][13]. Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 514.43 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.67% [3]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 92.11%, with a net profit margin of 52.19% [3]. - The company aims for a revenue growth target of approximately 9% for 2025, with projected revenues of 1900.38 billion yuan, 2090.91 billion yuan, and 2307.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 1,547.00 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 19,433 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 12.56 billion shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 19.0% [2]. - The largest shareholder is the China Guizhou Moutai Distillery (Group) Co., Ltd. [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268.47 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 11.56% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s sales revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor in Q1 2025 was 435.57 billion yuan and 70.22 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.70% and 18.30% [4]. - The company’s direct sales accounted for 45.91% of total revenue, showing an increase of 3.58 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 74.95 yuan, 82.76 yuan, and 91.61 yuan respectively [5][9]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 22.54 in 2024 to 16.89 by 2027 [9].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's Q1 2025 performance shows steady growth, slightly exceeding expectations with revenue and profit growth [2] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 514.43 billion and 268.47 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 10.7% and 11.6% respectively [2] - Gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 91.97% and 54.89%, with a year-on-year change of -0.6 and +0.5 percentage points [2] - Sales and management expense ratios were 2.91% and 3.73%, with year-on-year changes of +0.5 and -0.7 percentage points [2] - Operating cash flow remained stable, with sales collection growth accelerating; operating net cash flow and sales collection were 88.09 billion and 561.44 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -4.1% and +21.4% [2] Product and Channel Performance - Moutai liquor's revenue was 435.57 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10%, while series liquor revenue was 70.22 billion yuan, increasing by 18% [3] - Direct sales channel revenue grew significantly, reaching 232.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%, with direct sales channel revenue accounting for 45.91% of total revenue [4] - International revenue showed rapid growth, with Q1 2025 domestic and international revenues at 494.61 billion and 11.19 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 10% and 38% respectively [4] Profit Forecast - The company aims for a total revenue growth of approximately 9% in 2025 and plans to complete fixed asset investments of 47.11 billion yuan, with achievable targets [5] - Expected EPS for 2025-2027 are 75.23, 81.66, and 88.00 yuan, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 21, 19, and 18 times [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai [4][6] Core Views - Guizhou Moutai's Q1 2025 performance exceeded market expectations, with total revenue of 51.443 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.847 billion yuan, up 11.56% year-on-year [1][4] - The company demonstrated strong brand resilience, achieving double-digit revenue growth despite overall weak demand [2] - The company's 2025 operational target is a revenue growth of approximately 9%, which is considered realistic and achievable [4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q1 2025, revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor reached 43.557 billion yuan and 7.022 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.7% and 18.3% [2] - Direct sales and wholesale channels contributed 23.220 billion yuan and 27.360 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting year-on-year increases of 20.19% and 3.93% [2] - The company's gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 91.97%, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.64 percentage points, while the net profit margin increased by 0.42 percentage points to 52.19% [3] Cash Flow and Financial Health - Sales cash receipts in Q1 2025 amounted to 56.144 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.37%, indicating strong cash flow performance [3] - The company reported a net operating cash flow of 8.809 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 4.1% year-on-year [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 94.489 billion yuan, 103.046 billion yuan, and 111.879 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 75.22 yuan, 82.03 yuan, and 89.06 yuan [4][5] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 21, 19, and 17 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a solid start in Q1 2025 with total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 514.4 billion and 268.5 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10.7% and 11.6% [1][2] - The growth is supported by strong performance in both product and channel segments, with notable increases in direct sales and series liquor revenue [2][3] - The company is expected to continue its high-quality growth trajectory, driven by its leading brand and quality, refined pricing strategies, and ongoing expansion into overseas markets [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor of 435.6 billion and 70.2 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.7% and 18.3% [2] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 92.1%, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 0.4 percentage points to 52.2% [3] - Sales collection reached 561.4 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.4% [3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted upwards to 74.83, 81.59, and 89.29 RMB, respectively, reflecting a 0.9% increase from previous estimates [4] - The target price for the company is set at 1,945.58 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 26x for 2025 [4][8] Market Position - The company is positioned as an industry leader with a market-oriented and refined governance structure, which is expected to support its high-quality development [4]

证券简称：贵州茅台 证券代码：600519 编号：临 2025－016 贵州茅台酒股份有限公司 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 贵州茅台酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据上海证券交易所《上 市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》之《第十二号——酒制造》 的相关规定，现将公司 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据（未经审计）公告如 下： 单位：万元 币种：人民币 项目 按产品档次 按销售渠道 按地区分部 茅台酒 系列酒 直销 批发 国内 国外 年初至报告期末的 主营业务收入 4,355,747.74 702,247.98 2,322,045.62 2,735,950.10 4,946,141.69 111,854.03 一、2025 年第一季度经营情况 注：年初至报告期末，公司通过"i 茅台"数字营销平台实现酒类不含 税收入 587,019.12 万元。 二、2025 年第一季度经销商变动情况 单位：个 | 区域名称 | 报告期末经销商数量 | 年初至报告期末增加数量 ...