Core Insights - The article discusses the competitive landscape of the IP consumption sector in China, focusing on two leading companies: Pop Mart and Miniso [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Pop Mart is recognized as a dominant player in the IP consumption market, with its core IP, Labubu, becoming a national sensation [2][10]. - Miniso has transformed from a discount retailer to an IP derivative product store, indicating a significant shift in its business model [3][4][6]. Group 2: Market Position and Financial Performance - As of mid-2025, Pop Mart's market capitalization exceeds HKD 400 billion, while Miniso's is around HKD 60 billion, indicating a valuation disparity of 7-8 times [8][9]. - Pop Mart reported a revenue of CNY 13.8 billion and a net profit of CNY 4.7 billion in the first half of 2025, with a profit growth rate of 362% year-on-year [12]. - Miniso achieved a revenue of CNY 9.3 billion and an operating profit of CNY 1.27 billion in the same period, reflecting a 3.4% year-on-year growth [14]. Group 3: Business Models - Pop Mart's business model is primarily driven by its proprietary IP, with 88% of its sales coming from self-owned IP [23]. - Miniso has been following a "borrowed" approach by licensing well-known international IPs, which incurs high costs and limits its originality [16][18]. Group 4: Future Strategies - Miniso is shifting towards a self-owned IP strategy, with plans to leverage its extensive global store network of 7,600 locations to test market acceptance of new IPs [32][35]. - The company has recently opened large IP experience stores, named "Miniso Land," in major urban centers, focusing solely on IP products [41][44]. Group 5: Market Trends and Globalization - Both companies have a high degree of globalization, with overseas revenue accounting for approximately 40% of total income, a figure expected to rise in the coming years [55][56]. - The article emphasizes the growing cultural and spiritual consumption attributes of the IP sector, moving beyond traditional price competitiveness [57][58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 13.876 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 204.4% [6]. - Adjusted net profit reached 4.710 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 362.8%, and an adjusted net profit margin of 33.94%, up by 11.6 percentage points [6]. - The company’s IP matrix continues to grow, with significant contributions from top IPs and a rapid increase in new IP cultivation [6]. Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown shows that the top IPs generated significant income, with "The monsters" contributing 4.81 billion yuan, "Molly" 1.36 billion yuan, and "Skullpanda" 1.22 billion yuan, among others [6]. - The plush category saw a staggering growth of 1276.2% to 6.139 billion yuan, becoming the highest revenue-generating category [6]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 70.3%, a year-on-year increase of 6.3 percentage points, driven by better cost control and a higher proportion of overseas high-margin business [6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 30.05 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 130% [7]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to reach 10.368 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 205% [7]. - The adjusted PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 37.4x, 27.3x, and 22.4x respectively [7]. Market Expansion - The company reported a revenue of 8.28 billion yuan from the China region, a year-on-year increase of 135.2%, with significant growth in offline channels [6]. - Overseas revenue reached 5.59 billion yuan, marking a remarkable growth of 439.6%, with the Americas showing a particularly high growth rate of 1142.3% [6]. - The company plans to expand its overseas store count to 200 by the end of the year, with a focus on emerging markets such as the Middle East and South Asia [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant impact of Pop Mart on the domestic IP industry, suggesting that the company has validated the potential for domestic IP enterprises to leverage strong supply chains and quality operations to access global markets [1] Group 1: Commercial Value of IP - The market has underestimated the commercial value of character-based IP and the long-term operational capabilities of companies [2] - The lifecycle of high-quality character-based IP is longer than the market perceives, with examples like MOLLY showing a revenue CAGR of 22% from 2019 to 2023 [2] - Successful IP can achieve high commercial value through a combination of mass appeal and artistic quality, as seen with projected revenues of 2.1 billion RMB for MOLLY and 3 billion RMB for LABUBU in 2024 [2] Group 2: Business Challenges and Resilience - From December 2020 to June 2022, the company experienced a decline in stock price due to systemic adjustments in growth stock valuations and deteriorating profit indicators [3] - The period from July to October 2022 saw the company’s performance under pressure, with the blind box trend becoming mainstream, leading to a significant underperformance compared to the Hong Kong stock market [3] - The company demonstrated strong organizational resilience and execution capabilities during this challenging phase, which laid the groundwork for accelerated internationalization post-2024 [3] Group 3: Recovery and Long-term Value Reassessment - From November 2022 to June 2023, the company’s EPS gradually recovered, with positive guidance for 2023, although the market attributed this mainly to macroeconomic factors [3] - Since July 2023, the company’s performance has shown signs of alpha, driven by organizational optimization and accelerated international expansion, particularly with LABUBU gaining unexpected popularity [3] - The rise of LABUBU is supported by trends in personalized consumption and social media influence, which have contributed to its revenue exceeding expectations [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company remains optimistic about LABUBU and its diverse IP matrix driving rapid revenue growth across all channels, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 raised to 10.03 billion, 14.49 billion, and 18.29 billion RMB respectively [4] - A valuation of 30 times PE for 2026 is suggested, corresponding to a market value of 434.6 billion RMB, indicating a potential 28% upside from the market value as of August 8, 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the explosive commercial potential of the Labubu IP, which has transformed from a niche product to a highly sought-after collectible, driving significant sales growth for its parent company, Pop Mart [4][34]. Group 1: Labubu's Rise and Market Dynamics - Labubu, created by Hong Kong artist Long Jiasheng, has gained immense popularity, surpassing other Pop Mart products in sales and demand [5][7]. - The sales revenue for Pop Mart's The Monsters series, which includes Labubu, is projected to increase from 368 million yuan in 2023 to 3.041 billion yuan in 2024 [7]. - Labubu's popularity has led to a secondary market where some products are reselling for over 30 times their original price, turning them into investment assets [7][34]. Group 2: Emerging Business Opportunities - The surge in Labubu's popularity has spurred various ancillary businesses, including custom clothing, rental services, and modifications, catering to the growing demand from consumers [8][19]. - A young collector in Zhengzhou has successfully monetized his Labubu collection by renting them out, with rental prices ranging from 20 to 80 yuan per day depending on the size [10][15]. - Custom clothing for Labubu has become a profitable venture, with one seller reporting monthly earnings of 2,000 to 3,000 yuan, equivalent to a local salary [21]. Group 3: Customization and Modification Trends - The trend of modifying Labubu figures, known as "改娃," reflects consumer desire for personalization, with services ranging from simple alterations to complex customizations [25][28]. - The customization market for Labubu is still developing, with some players expressing concerns about the sustainability of this trend due to the high prices and limited availability of the figures [30][39]. - The demand for modified Labubu figures is expected to grow as more players enter the market, indicating a potential for long-term business opportunities [39]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the booming market, challenges such as supply chain issues and increased competition in the custom clothing sector are emerging, impacting profitability [36][38]. - The sustainability of the ancillary businesses surrounding Labubu will largely depend on Pop Mart's ability to manage and promote the IP effectively [40].

Core Insights - The profitability of IP businesses, particularly in the collectible toy market, has exceeded expectations, with the Labubu character from Pop Mart experiencing a significant surge in popularity and sales [1][18] - Labubu's rise has been fueled by social media and celebrity endorsements, leading to a secondary market where prices can exceed 30 times the original value, transforming these toys into investment products [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Labubu's sales are projected to increase from 368 million yuan in 2023 to 3.041 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a dramatic growth trajectory [1] - The character has become a cultural phenomenon, with high demand leading to sold-out official channels and a thriving secondary market [3][10] - The emergence of counterfeit products highlights the intense competition and the need for strong copyright enforcement by Pop Mart [3] Group 2: Rental and Customization Business - A growing trend involves renting Labubu figures for events and marketing purposes, with rental prices ranging from 20 to 80 yuan per day depending on the size of the toy [4][9] - Customization services for Labubu, including clothing and modifications, have gained traction, with some individuals generating significant income from these services [11][14] - The customization market is still developing, with varying levels of demand and pricing based on the complexity of the modifications [15][20] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trends - Consumers are increasingly willing to pay for unique experiences and products, leading to a rise in rental services as a cost-effective way to access popular items [7][10] - The trend of customizing toys reflects a desire for individuality among collectors, with some willing to invest in alterations to make their Labubu unique [14][18] - The overall market for Labubu and similar collectibles is characterized by a blend of investment potential and consumer engagement, driving ongoing interest and activity [18][20]