证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 25 日 泡泡玛特（09992.HK） 半年营收破百亿，IP 矩阵一超多强 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年报，实现收入 138.76 亿元，同比增长 204.4%； 经调整净利润为 47.10 亿元，同比增长 362.8%；经调整净利率为 33.94%，同 比提升 11.6pct。 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1343 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 1343 | | 总市值（十亿港元） | 424.4 | | 香港股市值（十亿港元） | 424.4 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 10.6 | | ROE（TTM） | 22.0 | | 资产负债率 | 32.4% | | 主要股东 | UBS Trustees | | 主要股东持股比例 | 41.7837% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 12 151 621 相对表现 11 141 578 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -200 0 200 400 600 800 Aug/24 Dec/24 Apr/25 Jul/25 (% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant impact of Pop Mart on the domestic IP industry, suggesting that the company has validated the potential for domestic IP enterprises to leverage strong supply chains and quality operations to access global markets [1] Group 1: Commercial Value of IP - The market has underestimated the commercial value of character-based IP and the long-term operational capabilities of companies [2] - The lifecycle of high-quality character-based IP is longer than the market perceives, with examples like MOLLY showing a revenue CAGR of 22% from 2019 to 2023 [2] - Successful IP can achieve high commercial value through a combination of mass appeal and artistic quality, as seen with projected revenues of 2.1 billion RMB for MOLLY and 3 billion RMB for LABUBU in 2024 [2] Group 2: Business Challenges and Resilience - From December 2020 to June 2022, the company experienced a decline in stock price due to systemic adjustments in growth stock valuations and deteriorating profit indicators [3] - The period from July to October 2022 saw the company’s performance under pressure, with the blind box trend becoming mainstream, leading to a significant underperformance compared to the Hong Kong stock market [3] - The company demonstrated strong organizational resilience and execution capabilities during this challenging phase, which laid the groundwork for accelerated internationalization post-2024 [3] Group 3: Recovery and Long-term Value Reassessment - From November 2022 to June 2023, the company’s EPS gradually recovered, with positive guidance for 2023, although the market attributed this mainly to macroeconomic factors [3] - Since July 2023, the company’s performance has shown signs of alpha, driven by organizational optimization and accelerated international expansion, particularly with LABUBU gaining unexpected popularity [3] - The rise of LABUBU is supported by trends in personalized consumption and social media influence, which have contributed to its revenue exceeding expectations [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company remains optimistic about LABUBU and its diverse IP matrix driving rapid revenue growth across all channels, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 raised to 10.03 billion, 14.49 billion, and 18.29 billion RMB respectively [4] - A valuation of 30 times PE for 2026 is suggested, corresponding to a market value of 434.6 billion RMB, indicating a potential 28% upside from the market value as of August 8, 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the explosive commercial potential of the Labubu IP, which has transformed from a niche product to a highly sought-after collectible, driving significant sales growth for its parent company, Pop Mart [4][34]. Group 1: Labubu's Rise and Market Dynamics - Labubu, created by Hong Kong artist Long Jiasheng, has gained immense popularity, surpassing other Pop Mart products in sales and demand [5][7]. - The sales revenue for Pop Mart's The Monsters series, which includes Labubu, is projected to increase from 368 million yuan in 2023 to 3.041 billion yuan in 2024 [7]. - Labubu's popularity has led to a secondary market where some products are reselling for over 30 times their original price, turning them into investment assets [7][34]. Group 2: Emerging Business Opportunities - The surge in Labubu's popularity has spurred various ancillary businesses, including custom clothing, rental services, and modifications, catering to the growing demand from consumers [8][19]. - A young collector in Zhengzhou has successfully monetized his Labubu collection by renting them out, with rental prices ranging from 20 to 80 yuan per day depending on the size [10][15]. - Custom clothing for Labubu has become a profitable venture, with one seller reporting monthly earnings of 2,000 to 3,000 yuan, equivalent to a local salary [21]. Group 3: Customization and Modification Trends - The trend of modifying Labubu figures, known as "改娃," reflects consumer desire for personalization, with services ranging from simple alterations to complex customizations [25][28]. - The customization market for Labubu is still developing, with some players expressing concerns about the sustainability of this trend due to the high prices and limited availability of the figures [30][39]. - The demand for modified Labubu figures is expected to grow as more players enter the market, indicating a potential for long-term business opportunities [39]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the booming market, challenges such as supply chain issues and increased competition in the custom clothing sector are emerging, impacting profitability [36][38]. - The sustainability of the ancillary businesses surrounding Labubu will largely depend on Pop Mart's ability to manage and promote the IP effectively [40].

Core Insights - The profitability of IP businesses, particularly in the collectible toy market, has exceeded expectations, with the Labubu character from Pop Mart experiencing a significant surge in popularity and sales [1][18] - Labubu's rise has been fueled by social media and celebrity endorsements, leading to a secondary market where prices can exceed 30 times the original value, transforming these toys into investment products [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Labubu's sales are projected to increase from 368 million yuan in 2023 to 3.041 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a dramatic growth trajectory [1] - The character has become a cultural phenomenon, with high demand leading to sold-out official channels and a thriving secondary market [3][10] - The emergence of counterfeit products highlights the intense competition and the need for strong copyright enforcement by Pop Mart [3] Group 2: Rental and Customization Business - A growing trend involves renting Labubu figures for events and marketing purposes, with rental prices ranging from 20 to 80 yuan per day depending on the size of the toy [4][9] - Customization services for Labubu, including clothing and modifications, have gained traction, with some individuals generating significant income from these services [11][14] - The customization market is still developing, with varying levels of demand and pricing based on the complexity of the modifications [15][20] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trends - Consumers are increasingly willing to pay for unique experiences and products, leading to a rise in rental services as a cost-effective way to access popular items [7][10] - The trend of customizing toys reflects a desire for individuality among collectors, with some willing to invest in alterations to make their Labubu unique [14][18] - The overall market for Labubu and similar collectibles is characterized by a blend of investment potential and consumer engagement, driving ongoing interest and activity [18][20]