| 108.358 | | 上美股份[02145] 2025-12-31 12:00 | | | | | 5PMA = 10PMA = 20PMA = 30PMA = | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 101.306 | | | | | | | | | | 94.254 | | | | | | | | | | 87.202 | | | | | | | | | | 80.150 | | | | | | | | | | 73.098 | | | | | | | | | | 66.046 | | | | | | | | | | 58.994 | | | | | | | | | | 51.942 | | | | | | | | | | 990万 | 成交单:1173116 | | | | | | | | | 742万 | | | | | | | | | | 495万 | | | | | | | | | | 247万 | | | | | | | | | | | 10-09 | 10-21 | 11-03 | 11-13 | 000 ...

该行按照护肤、婴童护理、洗护三大板块对公司中长期成长空间进行测算，预计韩束3年有望破百亿， 多品牌快速增长： 护肤业务：近两年韩束依托抖音渠道爆发，市占率明显提升，2024年韩束营收增长超80%，25H1受达 播渠道收缩影响营收有所降速，但Q3线上GMV依旧强劲，根据久谦数据，2025年Q3韩束GMV同比增 长50%。韩束大众、中高端产品线齐头并进，3年维度营收有望破百亿，一叶子营收有望企稳加速。 婴童护理业务：一页品牌依托独特的"医研共创"模式正处于高速增长阶段，过去两年市占率快速提升， 一页凭借高端定位和差异化代言人享有竞争优势，预计未来三年复合增速超50%。红色小象自2023年转 型中大童市场后仍在调整，预计营收增速先降后升。 洗护业务：有望诞生大品牌。1）垂类赛道较多，定位清晰且善于建设消费者心智的品牌能够脱颖而 出，公司极方、2032等洗护品牌有望复刻韩束、一页等品牌的方法论。2）公司切入功效防脱等增速更 快的赛道，且行业集中度较高，有助于孵化大品牌。 智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，上美股份(02145)为我国美护行业领先企业，旗下拥有在护 肤、婴童护理、洗护等赛道的多品牌矩阵。公司以线上 ...

国金证券发布研报称，上美股份(02145)为我国美护行业领先企业，旗下拥有在护肤、婴童护理、洗护 等赛道的多品牌矩阵。公司以线上渠道为主，考虑到多品牌增长势能强劲，无论是韩束未来的发展以及 新品牌培育都具备较强的确定性，给予公司2025年PE30倍估值，目标价109.78港元，首次覆盖，给 予"买入"评级。 国金证券主要观点如下： 洗护业务：有望诞生大品牌。1)垂类赛道较多，定位清晰且善于建设消费者心智的品牌能够脱颖而出， 公司极方、2032等洗护品牌有望复刻韩束、一页等品牌的方法论。2)公司切入功效防脱等增速更快的赛 道，且行业集中度较高，有助于孵化大品牌。 盈利预测估值 复盘公司发展的历程，该行认为公司多品牌拓展方法论与运动龙头安踏体育有几个主要相似之处 1)市场化主导。公司旗下品牌定位精准，可以快速发掘消费者痛点，推出针对性产品的同时进行魄力营 销，绑定顶流IP，助力品牌快速破圈。主品牌韩束成功后将这一方法论推广到其他品牌。 2)渠道精细化运营趋势。随着内容电商成为化妆品消费的核心场景，公司以抖音为核心重构渠道战略， 通过创新营销玩法与提升自播比例等精细化运营，实现收入与利润的双高增长。 3)人才内部输 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, highlighting potential growth opportunities in the sector [4][13]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector is currently underperforming compared to the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index rising by only 0.5% from November 21 to November 28, 2025, which is lower than the overall market performance [5][4]. - The sixth China Cosmetics Annual Conference emphasized the importance of multi-brand globalization and AI empowerment for future development, with industry leaders discussing strategies for growth and market adaptation [10][4]. - The report anticipates that domestic brands will thrive during the industry's consolidation phase, leveraging innovation and consumer demand to drive growth [11][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown weak performance, with the Shenwan Cosmetics Index increasing by 1.4%, which is 1.6 percentage points lower than the Shenwan A Index [5][4]. - Key stocks in the sector include Yanjiang Co. (+22.0%), Mingchen Health (+17.9%), and Lihe Technology (+9.9%) [6][4]. Market Trends - The report identifies trends such as the need for brands to localize when expanding internationally, the role of AI in upgrading the industry, and the focus on men's skincare and body care segments [10][4]. - The medical beauty market is expected to see growth driven by new products and consumer demand, despite some economic pressures [12][4]. Company Analysis - Qingmu Technology is highlighted as a leading player in the full-service e-commerce operation sector, with a strong focus on data and technology to drive growth [16][4]. - The report notes that the company has shown significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 15.1 billion, 19.0 billion, and 23.4 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [19][4]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include brands with strong channel and brand matrices such as Maogeping, Shuangmei, and Proya, as well as companies in the medical beauty sector like Aimeike [13][4]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities and a broad product pipeline, particularly in the medical beauty segment [13][4].

Core Insights - Southbound funds increased their holdings in Shangmei Co., Ltd. by 198,700 shares on November 4, 2025, marking a 0.46% increase in total shares held [1][2] - Over the past five trading days, there have been four days of net increases in holdings, totaling 1,330,800 shares [1][2] - In the last twenty trading days, there were ten days of net increases, amounting to 1,400,500 shares [1][2] - As of now, southbound funds hold 43,388,700 shares of Shangmei Co., Ltd., which represents 21.02% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1][2] Company Overview - Shangmei Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the production and sale of cosmetics in China [2] - The company markets brands such as "Han Shu," "Yi Ye Zi," and "Red Elephant," focusing on skincare and maternal and infant care products [2] - Products are sold through both online and offline channels, with a primary focus on the domestic market [2]

Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have reduced their holdings in Shangmei Cosmetics Co., Ltd. (02145.HK), indicating a trend of net selling over recent trading days [1] Group 1: Shareholding Changes - On October 22, southbound funds reduced their holdings by 12,100 shares, marking a decrease of 0.03% [2] - Over the past five trading days, there have been four days of net selling, totaling a reduction of 742,100 shares [1][2] - In the last 20 trading days, there were 12 days of net selling, with a cumulative reduction of 1,188,800 shares [1] Group 2: Current Holdings - As of now, southbound funds hold 41,123,600 shares of Shangmei Cosmetics, which represents 19.92% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1][2] Group 3: Company Overview - Shangmei Cosmetics Co., Ltd. primarily engages in the production and sale of cosmetics, with key brands including "Han Shu," "Yi Ye Zi," and "Red Elephant" [2] - The company's products are utilized for skincare and maternal and infant care, sold through both online and offline channels [2] - The company mainly operates in the domestic market [2]

Core Insights - Southbound funds increased their holdings in Shangmei Cosmetics Co., Ltd. by 34,900 shares on October 14, 2025, bringing the total holdings to 41,631,900 shares, which represents 20.17% of the company's issued ordinary shares [1][2] Summary by Category Shareholding Changes - Over the past five trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings on three occasions, with a total net reduction of 327,900 shares [1] - In the last twenty trading days, there were ten days of reductions, resulting in a cumulative net decrease of 223,600 shares [1] - The most recent trading day on October 13, 2025, saw a decrease of 49,500 shares, representing a change of -0.12% [2] Company Overview - Shangmei Cosmetics Co., Ltd. primarily engages in the production and sale of cosmetics, with key brands including "Hansu," "Yiyezi," and "Red Elephant" [2] - The company's products cater to skincare and maternal and infant care, distributed through both online and offline channels [2] - The company mainly operates within the domestic market of China [2]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Shuiyang Co., Ltd. [3][13] Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector underperformed the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index increasing by 0.2% from September 5 to September 12, 2025, lagging behind the Shenwan A Index by 2.7 percentage points [3][4] - Domestic cosmetics brands showed strong growth in August, with key brands under Shumei Co. achieving a 70% growth rate on Douyin and Taobao platforms, indicating a robust performance despite high base effects [3][9] - The report highlights the upcoming Double 11 shopping festival, suggesting that brands should prepare for promotional strategies [3][9] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector's performance was weaker than the market, with declines in the Shenwan Cosmetics Index by 0.5% and the Shenwan Personal Care Index by 0.8% during the specified period [3][4] Key Company Review - Shuiyang Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leading technology-driven beauty company in China, with stable revenue between 4 to 5 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024 and an expected gross margin of 63.01% in 2024, up by 10.94 percentage points from 2021 [3][10] - The company has a dual business model of proprietary brands and CP agency brands, with a strong focus on high-end and global market transformation [3][10][12] E-commerce Data - In August, key domestic brands on Douyin and Taobao platforms showed significant growth, with Shumei Co. brands achieving a 70% increase, and other brands like Maogeping and Runben also reporting substantial growth rates [3][14] Market Trends - The report notes that the overall retail sales of cosmetics in July 2025 grew by 4.5%, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [3][17] - The domestic skincare market is projected to reach 271.2 billion yuan in 2024, despite a slight decline of 3.7% year-on-year, with domestic brands gaining market share [3][26] Company Announcements - Shumei Co. has appointed Dr. Karl Lintner, a pioneer in peptide beauty, as the chief scientific advisor, aiming to enhance its global competitiveness in research and development [3][21]

Group 1 - The company reported a robust revenue growth of 17.29% year-on-year, achieving an operating income of 4.108 billion yuan in H1 2025 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 524 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 30.65% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 75.52%, a slight decrease of 0.99 percentage points, while the net profit margin improved by 1.74 percentage points to 13.52% [1] Group 2 - The main brand, Han Shu, generated revenue of 3.344 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking a 14.3% increase, with significant sales from the Hong Man Yao and X Peptide series [2] - The second brand, Newpage, saw a remarkable revenue growth of 146.5% year-on-year, reaching 397 million yuan, achieving its annual sales target for 2024 [2] - The company is actively enhancing its online sales strategy, with self-operated online channels generating 3.421 billion yuan in revenue, a 24.6% increase, and accounting for 83.3% of total revenue [2] Group 3 - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.025 billion yuan, 1.286 billion yuan, and 1.566 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 32, 26, and 21 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in H1 2025, with revenue of 4.108 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, and a net profit of 556 million yuan, up 34.7% [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown by brand shows that Han Shu generated 3.344 billion yuan, accounting for 81.4% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 14.3% [1]. - Newpage achieved revenue of 397 million yuan, a significant increase of 146.5%, representing 9.6% of total revenue, driven by strong sales of its star products [1]. - One Leaf reported revenue of 89 million yuan, a decline of 29.0%, making up 2.2% of total revenue due to transformation adjustments [1]. - Red Little Elephant generated 159 million yuan, down 8.7%, accounting for 3.9% of total revenue, with a narrowing decline as brand strength improves [1]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a "Six Six Strategy" focusing on six major sectors: mass skincare, maternal & child care, personal care, color cosmetics, functional skincare, and high-end skincare, aiming for sustainable development [2]. - The company’s gross margin decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 75.5%, while the net profit margin increased by 1.7 percentage points to 13.5%, indicating improved profitability [2]. - Sales expense ratio decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 56.9%, reflecting the release of scale effects [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 1.02 billion yuan, 1.28 billion yuan, and 1.55 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.1%, 25.3%, and 20.9% respectively [2]. - The strong performance of the main brand Han Shu on Douyin has established significant brand momentum, with potential for other brands to replicate this success [2].