Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by optimized channel and brand structures, leading to better-than-expected profit margins. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue for 1H25 to be between 4.09 billion and 4.11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.8% to 17.3% [1] - The expected net profit for 1H25 is projected to be between 540 million and 560 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 30.9% to 35.8% [1] - The anticipated net profit margin for 1H25 is 13.4%, calculated based on the midpoint of the profit forecast [1] Group 2: Brand and Product Performance - The Han Shu brand has successfully expanded its product lines, with the proportion of its main product series decreasing to over 60%, while the share of secondary products has increased to approximately 15% [1] - Newpage continues to show strong growth, with a GMV increase of over 140% across major platforms in 1H25 [1] - The company is also seeing growth in its new brands, such as Anminyou and Hongse Xiaoxiang, which are progressing well [1] Group 3: Profitability and Channel Optimization - Han Shu has optimized its channel structure, resulting in a significant improvement in profit margins, with the proportion of GMV from Douyin decreasing by 30 percentage points to 20% [2] - The overall profit margin for the company is expected to improve by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year to 13.4% due to the increased share of higher-margin brands like Newpage [2] Group 4: Future Growth and Brand Expansion - The company plans to continue expanding its brand matrix, having launched new brands in May and August, with further launches planned for the second half of 2025 [3] - The long-term strategy includes focusing on six major brands across skincare, hair care, and maternal and infant products over the next three years [3] - The company aims to establish a multi-brand, multi-category cosmetics group, indicating a broad growth potential in the market [3] Group 5: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 13% each, now estimating 1.13 billion and 1.39 billion yuan respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 27x for 2025 and 22x for 2026, with a target price increase of 15% to 98 HKD, suggesting a 20% upside potential [3]

Summary of Shangmei Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Shangmei Co., Ltd. is a leading multi-brand cosmetics company in China, with its main brand, Han Shu, generating 56 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, accounting for 82% of total revenue [2][4] - The company adheres to a multi-brand group strategy and plans to expand into six major cosmetics categories over the next decade, including mass skincare, personal care, maternal and infant products, medical skincare, color cosmetics, and high-end skincare [2][4] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shangmei Co., Ltd. reported impressive performance, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 60% in revenue and 130% in net profit attributable to shareholders [2][5] - The Douyin channel revenue is projected to recover from 2.7 billion yuan in 2022 to 5-6 billion yuan in 2024, indicating strong growth in online sales [2][5][6] Development Stages - The company's development can be divided into four stages: 1. **Startup Phase (2003-2007)**: Establishment of the Han Shu brand 2. **Rapid Growth Phase (2008-2018)**: Expansion through CS and e-commerce channels 3. **Adjustment Phase (2019-2022)**: Challenges in offline channels and online positioning 4. **Transformation Breakthrough Phase (2023-Present)**: Focus on box sets and Douyin strategies leading to high growth [7][8] Management and Ownership - As of the end of 2024, the founder holds over 60% of the shares, ensuring concentrated control and stability within the company [2][7] - The management team is relatively young, with most core executives under 50 years old, and the inclusion of professional managers supports the group's development [7] Marketing Strategies - The company employs celebrity endorsements and sponsors popular variety shows to enhance brand visibility [9] - It has successfully utilized live e-commerce and launched differentiated products like the Hongmai Oxygen Box to meet the needs of the Douyin market [9][10] Supply Chain and Pricing Strategy - Shangmei Co., Ltd. has developed its own supply chain since 2006, with production bases in Suzhou, Shanghai, and overseas, allowing for competitive pricing and improved gross margins [10] - The company uses high cost-performance promotions to attract consumers, successfully applying these strategies in both traditional and online channels [10] Future Development Outlook - Future growth is expected in three core areas: multi-category expansion, all-channel strategy, and multi-brand development [11] - The Han Shu brand is expanding its product lines, including new essence products and the X peptide series, while also enhancing its presence in various channels [11][12][13] Sub-brands and New Initiatives - The company has traditional sub-brands like Yiyezi and Hongse Xiaoxiang, and has launched new brands such as New Page, which focuses on infant skincare [14] - New Page achieved 380 million yuan in revenue in 2024, indicating strong growth potential [14] Overall Performance and Future Expectations - In the first half of 2025, the company's net profit margin improved significantly, supported by multi-category and all-channel expansion [15] - The diversified coverage of sub-brands is expected to bolster the group's development, indicating a positive outlook for future growth [15]

Core Viewpoint - The company has raised its profit forecast for 2025-2026 by 13% to 11.3 billion and 13.9 billion yuan, respectively, due to the continuous release of brand potential and enhanced competitive advantages [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - The multi-category layout of the Han Shu brand and the sustained high growth of Newpage have driven rapid revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with expected revenue of 40.9-41.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.8%-17.3% [2] - Newpage's GMV on major platforms like Tmall, Douyin, and JD.com has increased by over 140% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, following a strategic upgrade to cover a full age range for skincare [2] Group 2: Profit Margin Improvement - The optimization of the channel structure and the increase in the proportion of high-profit brands have led to a profit margin improvement in the first half of 2025, with an expected net profit of 5.4-5.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.9%-35.8% [3] - The proportion of self-broadcasting and product card GMV on Douyin has increased, contributing to a profit margin improvement, with the overall profit margin expected to rise by 1.6 percentage points to 13.4% [3] Group 3: Brand Expansion Strategy - The company plans to continue expanding its brand matrix, having launched new brands in May and August, with further launches planned for the second half of 2025 [4] - The long-term strategy includes focusing on six major brands across skincare, hair care, and maternal and infant products, aiming for significant growth in the cosmetics sector over the next decade [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see continued growth in brand strength and competitive advantages, leading to an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 by 13% to 1.13 billion and 1.39 billion yuan respectively, with a target price increase of 15% to 98 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 20% [1] Group 1 - The multi-channel and multi-category layout of the Han Shu brand, along with the sustained high growth of Newpage, is driving rapid revenue growth for the first half of 2025, with Han Shu's product lines diversifying and the contribution from men's skincare and makeup increasing to nearly 10% [2] - The optimization of channel structure and the increase in the proportion of high-margin brands are contributing to a better-than-expected profit margin for the first half of 2025, with the overall profit margin improving by 1.6 percentage points to 13.4% [3] Group 2 - The company is expected to continue expanding its brand matrix, with new brands launched in May and August, and plans to introduce additional brands in the second half of 2025, indicating a strong growth potential in the multi-brand and multi-category cosmetics sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The financial report of Shangmei Co., Ltd. for 2024 shows impressive revenue and profit growth, but reveals significant reliance on a single brand and channel, raising concerns about sustainability and long-term growth [1][2][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Shangmei Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 6.793 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 62.1%, and a net profit of 803 million RMB, up 74.0% [1][10]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 75.2%, while the net profit margin was only 11.83% [8][10]. Brand Dependency - The company heavily relies on the KANS brand, which accounted for 82.3% of total revenue in 2024, with sales reaching 5.591 billion RMB, a growth of 80.9% [4][5]. - Other brands under Shangmei, such as One Leaf and Baby Elephant, showed significantly lower sales figures, indicating a "one strong, multiple weak" brand structure [2][4]. Channel Dependency - Online sales contributed 90.5% of total revenue in 2024, with 61.35 billion RMB generated from online channels, marking an increase of approximately 82.6% [6][7]. - The majority of online sales came from the Douyin platform, where KANS brand's GMV reached 6.784 billion RMB, growing 103% year-on-year [6][10]. Marketing and R&D Expenditure - Marketing expenses accounted for nearly 60% of total revenue in 2024, with sales and distribution expenses reaching 3.947 billion RMB, a 76.2% increase [8][10]. - R&D expenditure was only 1.8 billion RMB, representing a mere 2.6% of total revenue, highlighting a significant imbalance between marketing and product development [10]. Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 10 billion RMB by 2025 and 30 billion RMB by 2030, but this ambition is contingent on overcoming brand and channel dependencies [10].

Group 1: Market Strategy and Industry Outlook - The article suggests that the market style is expected to lean towards defensive and undervalued sectors, with high scores for industries such as coal, public utilities, banking, non-bank financials, construction decoration, and oil and petrochemicals, indicating potential investment opportunities [3] - The PB-ROE-50 strategy has outperformed the CSI 500, CSI 800, and the overall market by 2.39%, 1.30%, and 1.33% respectively, reflecting a strong performance in the current market environment [4] Group 2: Real Estate Sector - In May, the total sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies reached 317.8 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 2.9% but a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%. The cumulative sales from January to May showed a year-on-year decline of 8% [5] - Notable performers in May included China State Construction with a 455% increase, Sunac China with a 128% increase, and China Jinmao with a 72% increase, indicating some recovery in high-capacity cities [5] Group 3: Automotive Industry - The automotive market remained stable in May, with new forces expected to lead the industry in intelligent driving innovations. A new round of price wars is causing short-term disruptions, but the outlook for domestic sales in 2025 remains positive due to trade-in incentives [6] - The theme of intelligence in vehicles is anticipated to continue to develop, with a focus on companies capable of high-level autonomous driving and their supply chains [6] Group 4: Company-Specific Analysis - Up Beauty Co., listed in Hong Kong in 2022, has transformed from a single brand to a multi-brand, all-channel group, with its main brand, Han Shu, ranking second among domestic beauty brands in online GMV for 2024 and showing the fastest growth among leading beauty brands [7] - Peak Technology achieved a revenue of 600 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 45.94%, and a net profit of 222 million, up 27.18%. In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 171 million, a 47.34% year-on-year increase, indicating sustained growth momentum [8]

Company Overview - Shangmei Co., Ltd. is a multi-brand cosmetics group established in 2004, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2022, covering skincare, maternal and infant care, personal care, and makeup products [2] - The main brand, Han Shu, launched in 2003, is the second largest domestic beauty brand by GMV in online channels for 2024 and has the highest growth rate among leading beauty brands [2] - The company has capitalized on the growth of the Douyin platform, achieving rapid revenue growth with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 59.3% in revenue and 130.5% in net profit from 2022 to 2024 [2] Industry Analysis - The Chinese cosmetics industry has shown fluctuating growth since 2020, with a projected market size of 537.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 2.0% year-on-year decline [3] - Mass-market positioning is outperforming high-end positioning, indicating a consumer preference for cost-effectiveness [3] - Subcategories such as makeup and infant care are performing better than the overall cosmetics industry [3] - Domestic brands are leveraging online channels to gain market share, with Douyin emerging as a significant player, where Han Shu ranked first in GMV for beauty products in 2023 [3] Brand Growth Strategies - Han Shu focuses on mass-market positioning and scientific anti-aging, targeting a broad user base and enhancing profitability through new product launches and channel diversification [4] - The brand "Yi Ye" is capitalizing on the children's care market with triple-digit growth for two consecutive years, supported by endorsements from well-known actors and parenting experts [4] - Other potential brands include a hair care brand targeting hair loss and a makeup brand in collaboration with makeup artists, indicating a strategy to build multiple growth curves [4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The beauty and personal care industry in China is experiencing significant growth, driven by domestic consumption and the expansion of domestic brands [1][2]. Key Company Insights Shangmei Co., Ltd. (上美股份) - **Sales Growth**: - Tmall sales increased by 30% - JD.com sales grew nearly 70% - Kuaishou and Pinduoduo saw growth between 150% to 200% [1] - **NewPage Performance**: - Q1 revenue reached 160 million, with a 100% growth rate - Expected profit margin improvement for the year [1] - **Product Launches**: - NanBeauty plans to launch mid-to-high-end cosmetics in the second half of the year - Jifang Hair Care is set to expand after obtaining necessary certifications [1] - **Douyin Growth**: - Sales recovery began in April, with an increase in self-broadcasting and improved profit margins [1] - **Marketing Strategy**: - X Peptide aims for a GMV of 1 billion, with new endorsements to enhance marketing effectiveness [1] - Increased brand promotion and collaborations with influencers, including Ding Yuxi as the global ambassador for Han Shu [1] Runben Co., Ltd. (润本股份) - **Revenue Growth**: - Overall revenue increased by approximately 30% in April, with online sales up by about 10% - Significant growth in offline non-platform distribution (toB business) exceeding 50%, particularly in the Sam's Club channel [2] - **Sales Performance**: - Sales in Sam's Club reached over 20 million in April, up from approximately 12 million in March [2] - **Future Projections**: - Anticipates a revenue growth of over 20% in Q2, maintaining a target of 30% growth for both revenue and profit for the first half of the year [2] Marubi Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (丸美生物) - **Q1 Performance**: - Revenue growth of 28% with a net profit increase of 22% [2] - **Annual Targets**: - Aiming for a 32% growth in net profit for the year, referencing the previous year's performance [2] - **Product Sales Forecast**: - Xiaohongbi Eye Cream projected to achieve over 500 million in sales for 2024, representing a 146% growth - Xiaojin Needle expected to reach 350 million in online sales, with a 96% increase, alongside a doubling of offline sales [2] Additional Insights - The emphasis on high-quality ingredients and effective products is becoming a key profitability driver for companies in the beauty sector [3]

Core Insights - The peak profitability period for Han Shu has likely passed, with a notable decline in revenue growth in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half [3][4][22] - Han Shu's revenue surged by 80.9% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 5.591 billion RMB, contributing significantly to the overall revenue growth of the company [1][8] - The competitive landscape in the beauty industry is shifting, with increased participation in short drama marketing leading to higher costs and reduced effectiveness for Han Shu [5][19][26] Group 1: Company Performance - In 2024, the total revenue of Shangmei Co. increased by 62.1% to 6.793 billion RMB, with a profit of 803 million RMB, marking a 74% year-on-year growth [1][3] - The main brand Han Shu accounted for a significant portion of this growth, with a total revenue of 5.591 billion RMB [1][8] - The company's marketing expenses rose sharply, with sales and distribution costs reaching 3.95 billion RMB, a 76% increase, and marketing expenses alone growing by 90% to 3.317 billion RMB [27][28] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The beauty market is experiencing a transformation, with domestic brands like Han Shu and Pechoin gaining market share as international brands face declining sales [29][30] - The domestic beauty market saw a 7.46% increase in sales in 2024, with domestic brands capturing over 60% of the skincare market [30][33] - The influx of brands into short drama marketing has diluted Han Shu's competitive advantage, as other brands like Pechoin and international players also engage in similar marketing strategies [5][26] Group 3: Marketing Strategy - Han Shu's previous success was largely attributed to its early investment in short drama marketing, which generated significant sales and brand exposure [12][14] - However, the effectiveness of short drama marketing has diminished, with reports indicating a 40-fold decrease in marketing effectiveness despite increased costs [21][22] - The company is now shifting focus towards offline channels, emphasizing the importance of a balanced marketing strategy that includes both online and offline efforts [23][24]