在对话中，洪灏直言美联储降息是为了预防特朗普风险。在他看来，美联储从来没有真正意义上的独立过。 尽管在他看来，美国通胀的前景高于市场预期，但目前数据尚未反应通胀压力，此时是鲍威尔的喘息窗口，"在这个时候降息没有人会指责，所以我相信他 是想应付来自特朗普的压力"。 洪灏还提醒表示，再过几个月，当货币执行委员会成员中，"特朗普的人越来越多，共和党人越来越多，这个时候才是真正需要担心美联储货币政策选择的 时候"。 凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行。本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精 英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 莲华资产管理有限公司管理合伙人洪灏出席本次论坛。在论坛期间，他发表"相信牛市真的到来""每十年中国都会出现一波史诗级的牛市"等观点，引发热烈 讨论，同时也让人们好奇他的更多看法。主题发言后，他应邀与凤凰网财经进行更深入的对话。 近年来，伴随政治极化以及央行角色不断扩大，美联储维护其独立性的难度正在增加。来自特朗普的公开施压，打破了长期以来总统至少在表面上尊重美联 储独立性的传统。特朗普多次公开猛烈抨击美联储及其主席杰罗 ...

Group 1 - The forum "Phoenix Bay Area Financial Forum 2025" was held in Guangzhou, focusing on the theme "New Pattern, New Path" and gathering global political, business, and academic elites to explore development opportunities [1] - Hong Hao, managing partner of Lianhua Asset Management, expressed the view that a bull market is genuinely on the horizon, stating that "every decade China experiences an epic bull market" [1] - Hong Hao highlighted that the US dollar is the worst-performing major currency this year, indicating a long-term depreciation trend despite a slight rebound [1] Group 2 - The slight appreciation of the Chinese yuan this year is seen as a positive surprise, contrasting with previous years of depreciation that led to capital flowing into the US market [1] - The decline of the US dollar and the appreciation of the yuan have resulted in a better performance of the Chinese stock market, which is now leading globally [1] - There is an ongoing trend of capital returning to the Chinese market, and the upward trend in Chinese asset prices is expected to continue [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "Phoenix Bay Area Financial Forum 2025" held in Guangzhou focused on the theme "New Pattern, New Path," gathering global elites from politics, business, and academia to explore development opportunities amidst changing circumstances [1] Group 1: Market Insights - Hong Hao, managing partner of Lianhua Asset Management, expressed confidence in the arrival of a bull market, suggesting that every decade China experiences an epic bull market [1] - He referred to the current bull market as a "single bull," indicating a metaphorical representation of the public's long-term savings and the need to invest in the stock market [1] Group 2: Investment Behavior - Hong Hao highlighted a societal trend where younger generations exhibit lower desires for luxury goods, leading to a shift in discretionary income usage [1] - He emphasized the importance of stock investment for young people, arguing that keeping money in banks forfeits the opportunity for compound growth [1] Group 3: Wealth Accumulation - Hong Hao cited Warren Buffett's success, noting that most of Buffett's wealth accumulated after the age of 50 due to continuous investment and the power of compounding [1] - He encouraged young individuals to embrace investment opportunities, suggesting that they have the chance to learn from mistakes and start over if needed [1]

他举例表示，当前机器人和人之间的区别正在快速缩小，交通领域也出现了可以集陆空出行场景于一体的飞行汽车，"这些都是我们小时候看科幻小说中会 出现的东西，没有想到现在已经成为现实，我相信投资科学技术更加令人振奋"。 凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行。本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精 英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 莲华资产管理有限公司管理合伙人洪灏出席本次论坛。在论坛期间，他发表"相信牛市真的到来""每十年中国都会出现一波史诗级的牛市"等观点，引发热烈 讨论，同时也让人们好奇他的更多看法。主题发言后，他应邀与凤凰网财经进行更深入的对话。 聊到近期业内"投资白酒还是投资科技"的争议，洪灏表示这是两种不同的投资哲学，并没有高低之分。但是，投资白酒等对社会进步的推动作用较小，远没 有投资科技符合时代向前的需要，也没有投资科技那么"振奋人心"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Phoenix Bay Area Financial Forum 2025" held in Guangzhou focuses on the theme "New Pattern, New Path" and aims to explore development opportunities amidst changing circumstances [1] Group 1: Forum Insights - The forum gathered global political, business, and academic elites to discuss the evolving landscape and seek new development paths [1] - Hong Hao, managing partner of Lianhua Asset Management, expressed optimism about the arrival of a bull market, stating that every decade in China sees an epic bull market [2][3] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Hong Hao emphasized that a significant bull market not only brings profits to investors but also alters future expectations, which is crucial for economic and technological advancement [3] - He highlighted the importance of "animal spirits" in the market, suggesting that a lack of willingness to take risks is detrimental to societal progress [3]

Group 1 - The forum "Phoenix Bay Area Finance Forum 2025" held in Guangzhou focused on the theme "New Pattern, New Path," gathering global elites from politics, business, and academia to explore new trends in the changing landscape [1] - Economist Fu Peng discussed the rising gold prices, attributing it to a global consensus reflecting widespread concerns over potential risks, marking a shift in the perception of gold's value as a storage of wealth [3][4] - The behavior of the Chinese central bank and private sectors in purchasing gold while reducing U.S. Treasury holdings indicates a growing distrust in the traditional dollar credit system, suggesting a reconfiguration of the existing order [4] Group 2 - Liang Dong introduced the concept of "accelerated and decelerated dualism," explaining that as some individuals rapidly engage with AI and digitalization, others seek stability through traditional assets like gold [4] - The discussion highlighted a generational shift in value perception, where traditional heirlooms like rosewood furniture are losing appeal among younger generations, who may value contemporary items like Labubu more [5] - The emergence of products that combine gold with modern cultural symbols reflects a blending of traditional value storage with contemporary aesthetics, catering to the dual desires for trendiness and stability [5] Group 3 - The advent of AI, marked by the launch of ChatGPT, has shifted investment focus from broad technology to specific applications, indicating a clear path for the AI industry [6] - The necessity of AI skills for personal development is emphasized, with the ability to utilize AI becoming a fundamental competency for future generations [6][7] - Concerns about AI replacing human jobs are discussed, with a two-phase development model proposed: the current phase of human-AI collaboration and a future phase where AI may independently drive production, potentially leading to job displacement [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent controversy surrounding Shanghai Green捷, a major supplier of student meals, highlights significant issues regarding food quality and safety in school lunches, leading to public outcry and demands for better meal options from parents [1][4][27]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shanghai Green捷, established in 2014, has grown to serve over 500 schools and kindergartens, providing more than 500,000 meals daily, capturing nearly 30% of the market share in Shanghai's school meal sector [4][5]. - The company was previously regarded as an "invisible champion" in the industry, with a reported revenue of 560 million yuan in 2017 and a net profit margin of 15.7%, significantly higher than many competitors [16][19]. Group 2: Recent Controversy - The incident began when a parent discovered spoiled shrimp in a school meal, leading to widespread complaints about the quality of food provided by Green捷, which has been criticized for using low-quality ingredients [1][5][27]. - Following the discovery, it was revealed that the company had been using pre-packaged and frozen foods, with over 60% of meals consisting of fried items, raising concerns about nutritional value and food safety [5][25]. Group 3: Capital and Ownership Structure - The ownership of Shanghai Green捷 involves complex offshore structures, with significant investments from major players like the Liu Yonghao family and Temasek, indicating a strong capital backing that prioritizes profit over food quality [4][12][13]. - The company has been accused of operating under a model that prioritizes cost-cutting, with meal costs reported at 6-8 yuan while charging 18 yuan per meal, leading to questions about where the profit margins are allocated [25][27]. Group 4: Market Impact and Future Prospects - The fallout from the food safety scandal has led to increased scrutiny of the company's operations, with potential implications for its parent company, KGF, which is seeking to go public [16][27]. - The rapid expansion of Green捷, with over 80 new contracts awarded since January 2025, raises concerns about the integrity of the bidding process and the quality of food being served to students [22][27].

凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行。本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精 英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 莲华资产管理有限公司管理合伙人洪灏出席本次论坛。在论坛期间，他发表"相信牛市真的到来""每十年中国都会出现一波史诗级的牛市"等观点，引发热烈 讨论，同时也让人们好奇他的更多看法。主题发言后，他应邀与凤凰网财经进行更深入的对话。 被问及对当前牛市是否将至还心怀疑虑的投资者有什么寄语时，洪灏笑称"总不能让别人赶紧买股票，这样说并不会让大家更安心"。他表示，建议投资者把 投资变成生活的一个部分，"无论是牛市还是熊市，我们都要坚持买好的公司，不要惧怕买进以后股票下跌"。 他进一步解释称，买好的公司，即便市场关闭、没有公开市场竞价模式可以把股票抛售，优质公司也会每年产生现金流、产生分红，产生盈利的增长，这样 投资者仍然能够从中获得回报。"相信如果投资者是这样的理念，心态会好很多。" 图片来源：凤凰网财经 ...

凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行。本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精 英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 图片来源：凤凰网财经 莲华资产管理有限公司管理合伙人洪灏出席本次论坛。在论坛期间，他发表"相信牛市真的到来""每十年中国都会出现一波史诗级的牛市"等观点，引发热烈 讨论，同时也让更多人好奇他的判断何来。主题发言后，他应邀与凤凰卫视、凤凰网财经进行更深入的对话。 洪灏在对话中表示，相信牛市到来最主要的三个原因是，此前预期过分悲观、模式由通缩进入再通胀，以及绝大部分人还是不相信（牛市将至），因此还有 大量的资金没有入场。他认为预期还没有完全被反映到价格端，绝大部分人对于此次的行情的看法都还停留在"将增长"，并不认为这是真正的牛市。 他指出，认为某一指数上涨20%就是牛市的观点是错误的，真正的牛市是"人们闭着眼睛都能赚钱，随便买都能赚回来，鸡犬升天"。洪灏表示，强势板块仍 在延续势头，其他板块开始跟涨，"能够真正感受到（牛市真的来了）"。 ...

著名经济学家付鹏（左一）、正安康健创始人、正安中医教育基金会创始人梁冬（左二） 针对黄金价格的飙升，著名经济学家付鹏与正安康健创始人、正安中医教育基金会创始人梁冬在论坛对话环节进行探讨。 凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行。本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精 英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 付鹏认为，黄金强势背后是受跨越历史文化的价值储存共识影响，但他提醒，价值共识会随着人群和时间的变化而发生变化。他提到，"我们家就做过试 验。我给孩子留了一些钱币、邮币卡，还有一些珠子、串子、玛瑙、翡翠、木头。" 他指出，老一辈认为有价值、可以作为传家宝的物品，在年轻人眼中可 能并非如此。比如"我们认为红木家具可以当传家宝，你认为现在年轻人会认同这个价值吗？他不认为的，搞不好认为买的Labubu更值钱。" 而梁冬则将黄金与时下兴起的数字货币并行讨论，他认为，这表面上是两种资产，但背后反映的是一个故事线——加速主义与减速主义的并存。 一方面，"加速主义" 体现在一部分人正快速拥抱人工智能、数字化等前沿科技领域，并投资于数字货币这样的新兴资产。 ...