Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene monthly average price futures will officially launch on October 28, 2025, at the Dalian Commodity Exchange, providing a price benchmark tailored for monthly trading scenarios in the industry [2]. Group 1 - The contract code for the polypropylene monthly average price futures will be structured as "PP+Contract Month+F" (e.g., PP2603F for the March 2026 contract) [2]. - This futures contract is one of the first monthly average price futures for chemical products in the domestic market, relying on the fair price of existing physical delivery futures contracts for polypropylene [2]. Group 2 - The settlement price will be calculated as the arithmetic average of the settlement prices on all trading days in the month prior to the contract month, smoothing out the impact of daily price volatility [3]. - The cash settlement mechanism means that at expiration, the exchange will directly settle profits and losses based on the average price, eliminating the need for physical delivery and reducing storage and logistics costs, thereby improving capital efficiency [3].

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly the December non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, which could influence monetary policy and silver prices [1][3]. Economic Data Expectations - There is a significant divergence in market expectations for December non-farm payrolls, with estimates ranging from 25,000 to 155,000. The consensus from FactSet is 55,000, while the Wall Street Journal expects 73,000 and Reuters anticipates 60,000. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 4.5% [3]. - Economic forecasts suggest that even strong data may be misleading, with projections indicating that 2025 employment growth could be the weakest in decades, excluding 2020. The U.S. Navy Federal Credit Union predicts only 710,000 jobs added in 2025, marking the worst performance since 2003 outside of recession periods [3]. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - According to CME data, there is a nearly 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, with only an 11% chance of a 25 basis point cut. Recent Fed meeting minutes suggest that a rate cut in January is unlikely [3]. - Future rate cuts are contingent on the labor market; a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.5% or lower may support maintaining rates, while an increase above 4.7% could prompt cuts. The baseline expectation is that no rate cuts will occur during Powell's tenure [3]. Silver Trading Strategy - Silver prices have shown volatility, strengthening bullish momentum supported by the EMA50, with a prevailing upward trend expected in the short term following positive signals from the relative strength index after reaching oversold levels [4]. - A breakout above $83.94 would indicate a restoration of the upward trend, while a drop below $70.07 could shift the primary trend to bearish, potentially accelerating prices down to the mid-term correction range of $64.79 to $60.25, which aligns with a dense support area near the 50-day moving average of $59.60 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, influenced by short-term passive selling due to the BCOM annual rebalancing, mid-term focus on U.S. non-farm payroll data, and long-term support from low interest rate expectations and geopolitical risks [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. dollar index has slightly increased, trading around 99.106, while gold prices are at $4470.89 per ounce, reflecting a 0.15% decline [1]. - The BCOM annual rebalancing, which started on January 9, is expected to lead to passive selling of approximately 240 million ounces (6800 tons) of gold, potentially causing short-term volatility [3]. - The market anticipates the U.S. non-farm payroll data to be a key indicator, with expectations of 60,000 new jobs; a significant deviation from this could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Geopolitical complexities and rising global fiscal debt are increasing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with institutions maintaining a bullish consensus on gold prices [4]. - Major financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with HSBC predicting $5000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, and Morgan Stanley and CITIC Securities adjusting their targets to $4800 and $5100 respectively [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Current gold prices are above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $4315.87, indicating a bullish trend, with technical indicators suggesting that the downward pressure is diminishing [5][6]. - The MACD indicator shows a reduction in bearish momentum, while the RSI is at 56, indicating a neutral stance with potential for further upward movement [5][6]. - A breakthrough above the $4500 level could strengthen bullish sentiment, while a drop below the 200-day EMA may signal a deeper correction [6].

供应端，恒泰期货指出，委内瑞拉发生局势变动，伊朗发生罢工冲突或引发价格变动。2026年，中国甲 醇行业预计将新增21套产能，总规模达1350.7万吨/年，全国计划退出甲醇装置4套，合计产能140万吨/ 年。 需求方面，光大期货分析称，宁波富德装置预计检修至1月中旬，但山东联泓新建装置生产正常，预计 烯烃总需求有一定支撑。 1月9日，国内期市能化板块互有涨跌。其中，甲醇期货主力合约报收于2273.00元/吨，震荡上行 1.34%。 展望后市，金信期货表示，国际供应风险上升，1月进口预期下降，短期价格震荡偏强为主。 库存方面，据紫金天风期货介绍，2025年12月卸货不顺导致港口出现了阶段性去库情况。随着卸货恢复 正常，2025年12月底港口重新进入累库阶段，预计1月上旬将延续小幅累库态势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the significant decline in canola meal futures, with the main contract dropping nearly 2% and closing at 2338.00 yuan, reflecting a downward trend in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Canola meal futures are experiencing a weak supply and demand situation, with the supply side affected by slower-than-expected processing of Australian canola, while demand remains limited due to the off-season for aquatic consumption [2]. - The current inventory of canola meal is declining, but there is an expectation of a rebound in inventory due to increased supply from Australia, indicating that the market may have limited upward potential [2]. - The protein meal market is characterized by strong expectations but weak realities, with soybean meal prices supported by tight supply expectations, yet overall inventory levels remain high [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The canola meal futures market may continue to experience a downward adjustment due to high domestic soybean inventories and the expectation of a steady supply from Brazil as new harvests begin [3]. - The improvement in China-Canada trade relations is anticipated to further influence the canola meal futures market, potentially leading to a continued downward trend and affecting the buying sentiment in the soybean meal futures market [3].

CME交易所上调保证金及重要商品指数下调金银权重，或对金价构成潜在利空，但地缘政治风险引发 的避险情绪仍为金价提供支撑。此外，美国最新ADP就业数据表现不佳，增强了市场对美联储降息的预 期，目前市场预期明年将降息两次。本周，投资者需重点关注非农数据的公布，以进一步判断金价走 势。 日期 COMEX黄金库存量(吨) 增持（吨） 2026-01-07 1131.77 0.50 2026-01-06 1132.27 0.00 【要闻回顾】 摘要1月8日，COMEX黄金库存录得1131.77吨，较上一交易日减少0.5吨；COMEX黄金周四（1月8日） 收4486.50美元/盎司，上涨0.52%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4488.60美元/盎司，最低触及4415.00 美元/盎司。 1月8日，COMEX黄金库存录得1131.77吨，较上一交易日减少0.5吨；COMEX黄金周四（1月8日）收 4486.50美元/盎司，上涨0.52%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4488.60美元/盎司，最低触及4415.00美 元/盎司。 最新comex黄金库存数据： ...

Core Viewpoint - Styrene futures are experiencing a strong fluctuation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 6903.00 yuan and currently trading at 6878.00 yuan, reflecting a 0.73% increase. The market outlook remains cautious with varying opinions from different institutions on future price movements [1]. Group 1: New Lake Futures - Styrene continues to face significant upward resistance, suggesting a preference for a wait-and-see approach [1]. - The closing price in Jiangsu for styrene is between 6880-6950 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Limited market news has led to a rise in futures, positively impacting the spot market [1]. - The market is currently in a destocking phase, with a projected production vacuum in the next six months and increased maintenance of facilities, indicating a potential for sustained high valuations [1]. Group 2: Minmetals Futures - The current non-integrated profit for styrene is neutral to low, with significant upward valuation potential. The supply of pure benzene remains stable, while the supply side of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profits is declining [2]. - Styrene port inventories are significantly decreasing, and the overall operating rate in the downstream sector is showing an upward trend [2]. - It is suggested to consider going long on non-integrated styrene profits until the first quarter of next year [2]. Group 3: Guotou Anxin Futures - The downstream market is performing well, with procurement based on demand, and exports for February are still under negotiation [3]. - Production and sales of styrene are stable, with continued inventory declines, although the raw material pure benzene is accumulating, which may suppress price rebounds [3]. - The market is characterized by a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish fundamentals, leading to a continuation of price consolidation [3].

摘要1月9日，沪金主力暂报1006.50元/克，涨幅0.68%，今日沪金主力开盘价996.70元/克，截至目前最 高1007.00元/克，最低993.00元/克。 【机构观点】 【宏观消息】 美国季度生产率加速增长，12月裁员人数减少，关注周五公布的非农就业数据。美国最高法院本周或就 特朗普关税案做出裁决。美国称将不会切断委内瑞拉对中国石油供应。 美国第三季度生产率增速创两年最高水平，单位劳动力成本自2019年以来首次连续两个季度下滑。 【黄金期货行情表现】 1月9日，沪金主力暂报1006.50元/克，涨幅0.68%，今日沪金主力开盘价996.70元/克，截至目前最高 1007.00元/克，最低993.00元/克。 黄金长线上涨逻辑未变。但是美国经济数据暂不支持美联储继续快速降息，CME美联储观察显示1季度 美联储降息概率偏低。沪金偏强震荡，酝酿新动能。黄金多头相对白银、铂钯明显更稳健。建议04合约 多单继续持有。 ...

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices have declined due to a stronger US dollar and profit-taking by investors, which has reduced the purchasing power of overseas buyers [1] - The strengthening of the dollar has made commodities priced in dollars more expensive for international buyers, further suppressing demand [1] - The market is anticipating the release of US non-farm payroll data, which is expected to provide more insights into the direction of monetary policy [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices rebounded from daily lows as traders increased long positions, with a key resistance level at $4500 [3] - Silver prices are under pressure as the gold-silver ratio rises above 58.00, and a drop below $74.00 could open up further downside towards the support range of $70.20-$70.80 [3] - Platinum prices have rebounded from daily lows due to buying interest, with a need to reclaim $2265 for sustainable upward momentum, and a potential target of $2450 if prices rise above $2300 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Palladium futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 503.75 yuan, with a current price of 502.70 yuan, reflecting a rise of 6.79% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Guosen Futures predicts that platinum and palladium will continue to experience high-level fluctuations within a range [1] - Hualian Futures expects platinum and palladium to maintain characteristics of high volatility and wide fluctuations in the future [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent market fluctuations are attributed to a balance of bullish and bearish forces following significant volatility, supported by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and ongoing risk-averse sentiment [1] - Increased margin requirements from exchanges and the need for market correction from previous overbought conditions are limiting further price increases [1] - The demand for palladium is primarily driven by the automotive sector, with a significant impact from the surge in penetration rates of new energy vehicles in China, which has suppressed the growth of palladium demand [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The fundamental support for palladium is limited, with its price movements largely influenced by the overall sentiment of the precious metals sector, particularly in relation to platinum and macroeconomic conditions [1] - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully due to the anticipated high volatility and wide fluctuations in the market [1]