Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum futures prices have shown a continuous upward trend, with the current price at $3179.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.19% increase from the opening price [1] Group 1: LME Aluminum Futures Performance - On January 26, LME aluminum futures opened at $3169 per ton and reached a high of $3195 per ton during the trading session [1] - On January 23, LME aluminum futures had an opening price of $3140.0, a closing price of $3173.5, with a daily increase of 1.15% [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market Inventory and Trading Data - As of January 23, LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 482,475 tons, with canceled receipts at 24,800 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons [1] - The total aluminum inventory on LME was reported at 507,275 tons, also reflecting a decrease of 2,000 tons [1] - On the same date, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 2,296 tons, totaling 141,152 tons [1] Group 3: Import and Export Dynamics - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was recorded at 7.65, indicating an import loss of 1,918.67 yuan per ton, compared to a previous loss of 2,056.45 yuan per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Greenland sovereignty dispute, are causing European investors to withdraw from US dollar assets, leading to a surge in gold demand as a safe-haven alternative [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of January 26, the international gold price reached 1135.38 yuan per gram, marking an increase of 20.94 yuan, or 1.88%, from the previous trading day [1]. - Gold has shown a strong upward trend, with a weekly increase of 8.4%, representing its best performance in nearly six years [2]. - The price of gold has approached 5000 USD per ounce, with predictions suggesting it could reach 5400 USD per ounce by the end of 2026 [3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Market Trends - European investors are increasingly concerned about the political risks associated with US assets, prompting a shift towards gold as a safer investment [2][3]. - Major European pension funds, such as Sweden's Alecta and Denmark's AkademikerPension, are selling US Treasury bonds, reflecting a broader trend of reducing exposure to American assets [3]. - The global gold ETF market has seen record inflows, with a net inflow of 890 billion USD in 2025, doubling year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The decline of the US dollar, with a nearly 9.5% drop since the beginning of 2025, is contributing to the rising gold prices and investor interest [2]. - The geopolitical crisis has led to a trust crisis in US assets, reminiscent of historical events that triggered significant shifts in monetary policy and asset valuation [2][4]. - Analysts suggest that gold is transitioning from an investment option to a strategic necessity as confidence in the dollar wanes [4].

另外，Widmer引用历史数据指出，若比率回归2011年的32，白银价格可达135美元；若进一步至1980年 的14，则可能飙升至309美元每盎司。这种相对价值分析为投资者提供了多元化的选择机会，增强了贵 金属板块的整体吸引力。 今日周一(1月26日)亚盘时段，白银td目前交投于26976一线上方，今日开盘于24888元/千克，截至发 稿，白银td暂报27360元/千克，上涨10.89%，最高触及27749元/千克，最低下探24888元/千克，目前来 看，白银td盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 迈克尔.威德默(Michael Widmer)提到，对于愿承担更高风险以追求超额收益的投资者而言，白银或更具 吸引力。目前黄金与白银的比值约为59，这一水平暗示白银仍有跑赢黄金的空间。 日图来看，白银td上周五强势上涨涨超6%，已经是连续第三周收阳，今日价格延续上涨势头，目前价 格疯涨10%，一小时MACD正柱状图持续上扬，表明目前多头态势强势，趋势线也远离零线向上倾斜， 表明目前处于上涨动能充足，相对强弱指数(RSI)在一小时图上处于买超区，目前市场活跃警惕结利下 跌，DMI也表明目前处于绝对的上涨轨道之中，白 ...

北京时间1月26日，美国洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货价格震荡下行，开盘报63.84美分/磅，现报63.80美分/ 磅，跌幅0.06%，盘中最高触及64.06美分/磅，最低下探63.78美分/磅。 更新时间： 棉花期货行情回顾： 1月23日美国洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美棉花 63.90 64.15 63.57 63.97 0.03% 【棉花市场消息速递】 调研显示，截止至1月22日，进口棉主要港口库存周环比增加6.31%，总库存47.52万吨，其中，山东地 区青岛、济南港口及周边仓41.1万吨，同比减少7.35%。 据外媒报道，巴西棉花生产者协会(ABRAPA)在报告中称，巴西2025/26年度棉花种植面积预计较上年下 滑5.5%，至205.2万公顷。ABRAPA预估单产将下降4.7%，至每公顷1866千克。本年度收成预估为382.9 万吨皮棉，较上年度下滑9.9%。在对2025/26年度作物的第四次调查中，巴西全国供应公司(CONAB)预 估种植面积将下滑2.8%，至202.6万公顷，皮棉收成料下滑6.3%，至381.8万吨。 美国农业部：截至1月15日当周，美 ...

Group 1 - The Canadian dollar continues to experience a range-bound trading pattern, influenced by its commodity currency characteristics, the monetary policy dynamics between Canada and the U.S., and trade uncertainties, resulting in a slight strengthening against the U.S. dollar while remaining within a volatile range since the beginning of the year [1] - The Bank of Canada has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, with a 75% market expectation that rates will remain stable throughout 2026, indicating a conclusion to the rate-cutting cycle, which provides a foundational support for the Canadian dollar [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve exhibits a "hawkish but still accommodative" stance, with rate cut expectations pushed to June, but a projected reduction of 54 basis points within the year, leading to a narrowing interest rate differential that weakens the relative advantage of the U.S. dollar [1] Group 2 - The Canadian dollar, being an energy-export-oriented currency, is closely tied to international oil prices, with recent geopolitical risks supporting oil price stabilization, thus improving expectations for Canadian crude oil export revenues [2] - However, medium to long-term oil prices are pressured by expectations of global oversupply, leading to a decline in oil prices since the beginning of the year, which has previously caused significant depreciation of the Canadian dollar [2] - Domestic economic recovery in Canada is insufficient, with the unemployment rate projected to rise to 6.8% by December 2025, the highest level outside of the pandemic, and declining consumer confidence impacting corporate investment [2] Group 3 - The technical indicators show that the USD/CAD pair is in a bearish trend, with the price recently breaking below the key psychological level of 1.3700 and testing new lows [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a neutral to low range, indicating potential for further downward movement, while the MACD remains in a bearish state, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend [3] - Key pivot points for the USD/CAD pair are identified, with resistance levels between 1.3729-1.3762 and support levels at 1.3670-1.3650, indicating a need to monitor these critical levels for potential price movements [3]

2026年1月26日(周一)，美元兑瑞郎延续单边下行态势，盘中跌破0.7752关键位，最低下探0.7740，创阶 段新低，截至发稿交投于0.7767，日内跌幅0.4358%，今开与昨收均为0.7744，整体呈弱势走跌格局。 瑞郎避险属性凸显叠加美瑞政策分化加剧，成为汇价走弱核心推手，美元指数同步下探进一步放大跌 幅。 风险层面，需留意瑞士出口端疲软带来的潜在压制，瑞士制表、制药等核心出口行业销售额下滑，经济 复苏动能不足或削弱瑞郎单边升值基础；此外，瑞央行外汇干预操作也可能扰动汇率走势，短期美瑞或 在0.77-0.78区间窄幅震荡，空头趋势下需警惕超跌后的技术性反弹。 日内走势上，美元兑瑞郎开盘后便承压走弱，亚洲时段小幅下探至0.7740日内低点后短暂回弹，却缺乏 买盘支撑难以突破0.7800关口，最高仅触及0.7803；欧洲时段开盘后，美元抛压加剧，汇价再度走跌并 稳守0.78关口下方，与日元、欧元等非美货币联动走弱，美元弱势格局下美瑞多头毫无反攻迹象。 瑞郎避险属性持续发酵，全球地缘摩擦、美欧贸易紧张局势尚存，叠加市场对全球经济复苏的谨慎情 绪，资金持续流入传统避险货币瑞郎。瑞士政治中立、常年经常账户盈余 ...

商品属性叠加中国需求形成支撑。铜价受新能源、AI基建需求上行，世行预测2026年涨1%；铁矿石稳 于130美元/吨上方，受益中国基建。瑞银称，中国5%左右的增速持续支撑澳洲资源需求，利好澳元。 1月26日(周一)，澳元兑美元强势上行，盘中最高触及0.6931，创16个月新高，截至发稿交投于0.6913， 日内涨幅0.26%，开年累计上涨3.6%，跻身2026年表现最佳G10货币。澳联储鹰派预期、大宗商品支 撑、美澳政策分化三大因素共振，叠加美元走弱，持续为澳元提供上行动力。 日内走势上，澳元兑美元今开0.6922，亚洲时段依托0.6894支撑震荡攀升，突破0.6900关口至0.6931；欧 洲时段因获利了结小幅回落，仍稳守0.6900上方，与欧元、日元等非美货币联动走强，强势韧性凸显。 核心驱动：政策分化定调，商品与经济双重托底 澳联储鹰派立场是核心支撑。央行连续三次维持3.6%基准利率，行长博洛克明确不考虑降息，甚至将 加息纳入2026年议程，终结降息预期。市场定价2月加息概率27%、3月逼近50%，机构预测利率或升至 3.85%。通胀黏性提供支撑，去年12月消费者通胀预期反弹至4.7%，核心通胀超政策目标 ...

1月26日(周一)，美元兑加元延续承压下行态势，盘中最低下探1.3677，截至发稿交投于该位置，日内跌 幅0.1679%，今开与昨收均为1.3697，最高触及1.3709。受美元指数走弱、原油价格支撑加元及美加货 币政策博弈影响，汇价短期震荡走弱，延续开年以来的区间博弈格局。 关键点位方面，下方核心支撑为1.3677日内低点，跌破后将进一步下探1.3650一线；上方阻力先看 1.3700整数关口，突破后可上看1.3750，若无法有效站上则反弹乏力，仍将回归震荡。 后续需重点关注1月28日加拿大央行议息会议，此次会议料维持利率不变，政策声明对通胀和经济的判 断将影响加元走势；同时跟踪国际原油价格波动、美国经济数据及美元指数走势，直接主导汇价短期方 向。此外，美加墨协议审查的相关动态也需持续留意，贸易情绪变化将成为重要扰动因素。 风险层面，需警惕原油价格因地缘风险降温出现回调，进而削弱加元支撑；若美国经济数据超预期走 强，推动美元指数阶段性反弹，美元兑加元或顺势回弹。短期来看，汇价大概率维持1.3650-1.3750区间 震荡，多空博弈下难现单边趋势，油价与美元强弱将成为短期走势核心推手。 美加货币政策分化形成博 ...

技术面来看，美元指数呈明确空头主导格局，短期均线形成空头排列，5日、10日均线压制显著，价格 持续运行于均线下方；MACD指标维持死叉状态，绿柱动能虽略有收敛，但空头趋势未发生根本改变， RSI指标低于50，卖压仍存且无明显企稳信号。关键点位方面，下方支撑聚焦97.00整数关口，若有效跌 破，将进一步下探96.50及前期低点95.85；上方阻力先看97.88日内高点，进一步阻力区间为98.20- 98.80，仅突破该区间才能缓解短期弱势。 机构普遍对美元指数短期走势持谨慎态度，认为弱势格局难以逆转。Evercore ISI全球政策和中央银行 战略主管克里希纳.古哈指出，若美国政府不调整当前政策立场，对美元及美国资产的长期负面影响将 持续，全球投资者正持续缩减对美国市场的风险敞口。不过，机构也提示需警惕阶段性反弹风险，美元 指数连续下跌后，投机资金获利了结可能引发技术性反弹，同时地缘冲突边际缓和、美国经济数据意外 向好等因素，也可能短暂提振美元情绪。 后续需重点关注美国1月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值(前值56.4)、本周美国耐用品订单及达拉斯联储 商业活动指数等数据，若数据疲软将进一步加剧美元回调压力；同时需 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that spot gold has historically surpassed $5000 per ounce for the first time, driven by increased central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty [1][2] - The ongoing tensions between the US and NATO regarding Greenland's sovereignty have deepened rifts within the Western alliance, raising concerns about a potential restructuring of the global financial landscape [1][2] - The situation in the Middle East is deteriorating, with the US imposing new sanctions on Iran and increasing military presence, leading to heightened fears of conflict and disruptions in global energy supply chains [1][2] Group 2 - The combination of multiple geopolitical risks has intensified market concerns regarding financial and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly with the US's recent sanctions on Iranian entities and oil tankers [2] - The expectation of continued monetary easing by the US and record inflows into gold ETFs are reinforcing the fundamental support for gold, with a reported cumulative price increase of over 64% for gold in 2025 [2] - Analysts predict that gold prices may rise significantly, with estimates suggesting a potential peak of $6400 per ounce this year, reflecting the growing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]