北京时间1月26日，美国洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货价格震荡下行，开盘报63.84美分/磅，现报63.80美分/ 磅，跌幅0.06%，盘中最高触及64.06美分/磅，最低下探63.78美分/磅。 更新时间： 棉花期货行情回顾： 1月23日美国洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美棉花 63.90 64.15 63.57 63.97 0.03% 【棉花市场消息速递】 调研显示，截止至1月22日，进口棉主要港口库存周环比增加6.31%，总库存47.52万吨，其中，山东地 区青岛、济南港口及周边仓41.1万吨，同比减少7.35%。 据外媒报道，巴西棉花生产者协会(ABRAPA)在报告中称，巴西2025/26年度棉花种植面积预计较上年下 滑5.5%，至205.2万公顷。ABRAPA预估单产将下降4.7%，至每公顷1866千克。本年度收成预估为382.9 万吨皮棉，较上年度下滑9.9%。在对2025/26年度作物的第四次调查中，巴西全国供应公司(CONAB)预 估种植面积将下滑2.8%，至202.6万公顷，皮棉收成料下滑6.3%，至381.8万吨。 美国农业部：截至1月15日当周，美 ...

Group 1 - The Canadian dollar continues to experience a range-bound trading pattern, influenced by its commodity currency characteristics, the monetary policy dynamics between Canada and the U.S., and trade uncertainties, resulting in a slight strengthening against the U.S. dollar while remaining within a volatile range since the beginning of the year [1] - The Bank of Canada has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, with a 75% market expectation that rates will remain stable throughout 2026, indicating a conclusion to the rate-cutting cycle, which provides a foundational support for the Canadian dollar [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve exhibits a "hawkish but still accommodative" stance, with rate cut expectations pushed to June, but a projected reduction of 54 basis points within the year, leading to a narrowing interest rate differential that weakens the relative advantage of the U.S. dollar [1] Group 2 - The Canadian dollar, being an energy-export-oriented currency, is closely tied to international oil prices, with recent geopolitical risks supporting oil price stabilization, thus improving expectations for Canadian crude oil export revenues [2] - However, medium to long-term oil prices are pressured by expectations of global oversupply, leading to a decline in oil prices since the beginning of the year, which has previously caused significant depreciation of the Canadian dollar [2] - Domestic economic recovery in Canada is insufficient, with the unemployment rate projected to rise to 6.8% by December 2025, the highest level outside of the pandemic, and declining consumer confidence impacting corporate investment [2] Group 3 - The technical indicators show that the USD/CAD pair is in a bearish trend, with the price recently breaking below the key psychological level of 1.3700 and testing new lows [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a neutral to low range, indicating potential for further downward movement, while the MACD remains in a bearish state, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend [3] - Key pivot points for the USD/CAD pair are identified, with resistance levels between 1.3729-1.3762 and support levels at 1.3670-1.3650, indicating a need to monitor these critical levels for potential price movements [3]

2026年1月26日(周一)，美元兑瑞郎延续单边下行态势，盘中跌破0.7752关键位，最低下探0.7740，创阶 段新低，截至发稿交投于0.7767，日内跌幅0.4358%，今开与昨收均为0.7744，整体呈弱势走跌格局。 瑞郎避险属性凸显叠加美瑞政策分化加剧，成为汇价走弱核心推手，美元指数同步下探进一步放大跌 幅。 风险层面，需留意瑞士出口端疲软带来的潜在压制，瑞士制表、制药等核心出口行业销售额下滑，经济 复苏动能不足或削弱瑞郎单边升值基础；此外，瑞央行外汇干预操作也可能扰动汇率走势，短期美瑞或 在0.77-0.78区间窄幅震荡，空头趋势下需警惕超跌后的技术性反弹。 日内走势上，美元兑瑞郎开盘后便承压走弱，亚洲时段小幅下探至0.7740日内低点后短暂回弹，却缺乏 买盘支撑难以突破0.7800关口，最高仅触及0.7803；欧洲时段开盘后，美元抛压加剧，汇价再度走跌并 稳守0.78关口下方，与日元、欧元等非美货币联动走弱，美元弱势格局下美瑞多头毫无反攻迹象。 瑞郎避险属性持续发酵，全球地缘摩擦、美欧贸易紧张局势尚存，叠加市场对全球经济复苏的谨慎情 绪，资金持续流入传统避险货币瑞郎。瑞士政治中立、常年经常账户盈余 ...

商品属性叠加中国需求形成支撑。铜价受新能源、AI基建需求上行，世行预测2026年涨1%；铁矿石稳 于130美元/吨上方，受益中国基建。瑞银称，中国5%左右的增速持续支撑澳洲资源需求，利好澳元。 1月26日(周一)，澳元兑美元强势上行，盘中最高触及0.6931，创16个月新高，截至发稿交投于0.6913， 日内涨幅0.26%，开年累计上涨3.6%，跻身2026年表现最佳G10货币。澳联储鹰派预期、大宗商品支 撑、美澳政策分化三大因素共振，叠加美元走弱，持续为澳元提供上行动力。 日内走势上，澳元兑美元今开0.6922，亚洲时段依托0.6894支撑震荡攀升，突破0.6900关口至0.6931；欧 洲时段因获利了结小幅回落，仍稳守0.6900上方，与欧元、日元等非美货币联动走强，强势韧性凸显。 核心驱动：政策分化定调，商品与经济双重托底 澳联储鹰派立场是核心支撑。央行连续三次维持3.6%基准利率，行长博洛克明确不考虑降息，甚至将 加息纳入2026年议程，终结降息预期。市场定价2月加息概率27%、3月逼近50%，机构预测利率或升至 3.85%。通胀黏性提供支撑，去年12月消费者通胀预期反弹至4.7%，核心通胀超政策目标 ...

1月26日(周一)，美元兑加元延续承压下行态势，盘中最低下探1.3677，截至发稿交投于该位置，日内跌 幅0.1679%，今开与昨收均为1.3697，最高触及1.3709。受美元指数走弱、原油价格支撑加元及美加货 币政策博弈影响，汇价短期震荡走弱，延续开年以来的区间博弈格局。 关键点位方面，下方核心支撑为1.3677日内低点，跌破后将进一步下探1.3650一线；上方阻力先看 1.3700整数关口，突破后可上看1.3750，若无法有效站上则反弹乏力，仍将回归震荡。 后续需重点关注1月28日加拿大央行议息会议，此次会议料维持利率不变，政策声明对通胀和经济的判 断将影响加元走势；同时跟踪国际原油价格波动、美国经济数据及美元指数走势，直接主导汇价短期方 向。此外，美加墨协议审查的相关动态也需持续留意，贸易情绪变化将成为重要扰动因素。 风险层面，需警惕原油价格因地缘风险降温出现回调，进而削弱加元支撑；若美国经济数据超预期走 强，推动美元指数阶段性反弹，美元兑加元或顺势回弹。短期来看，汇价大概率维持1.3650-1.3750区间 震荡，多空博弈下难现单边趋势，油价与美元强弱将成为短期走势核心推手。 美加货币政策分化形成博 ...

技术面来看，美元指数呈明确空头主导格局，短期均线形成空头排列，5日、10日均线压制显著，价格 持续运行于均线下方；MACD指标维持死叉状态，绿柱动能虽略有收敛，但空头趋势未发生根本改变， RSI指标低于50，卖压仍存且无明显企稳信号。关键点位方面，下方支撑聚焦97.00整数关口，若有效跌 破，将进一步下探96.50及前期低点95.85；上方阻力先看97.88日内高点，进一步阻力区间为98.20- 98.80，仅突破该区间才能缓解短期弱势。 机构普遍对美元指数短期走势持谨慎态度，认为弱势格局难以逆转。Evercore ISI全球政策和中央银行 战略主管克里希纳.古哈指出，若美国政府不调整当前政策立场，对美元及美国资产的长期负面影响将 持续，全球投资者正持续缩减对美国市场的风险敞口。不过，机构也提示需警惕阶段性反弹风险，美元 指数连续下跌后，投机资金获利了结可能引发技术性反弹，同时地缘冲突边际缓和、美国经济数据意外 向好等因素，也可能短暂提振美元情绪。 后续需重点关注美国1月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值(前值56.4)、本周美国耐用品订单及达拉斯联储 商业活动指数等数据，若数据疲软将进一步加剧美元回调压力；同时需 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that spot gold has historically surpassed $5000 per ounce for the first time, driven by increased central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty [1][2] - The ongoing tensions between the US and NATO regarding Greenland's sovereignty have deepened rifts within the Western alliance, raising concerns about a potential restructuring of the global financial landscape [1][2] - The situation in the Middle East is deteriorating, with the US imposing new sanctions on Iran and increasing military presence, leading to heightened fears of conflict and disruptions in global energy supply chains [1][2] Group 2 - The combination of multiple geopolitical risks has intensified market concerns regarding financial and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly with the US's recent sanctions on Iranian entities and oil tankers [2] - The expectation of continued monetary easing by the US and record inflows into gold ETFs are reinforcing the fundamental support for gold, with a reported cumulative price increase of over 64% for gold in 2025 [2] - Analysts predict that gold prices may rise significantly, with estimates suggesting a potential peak of $6400 per ounce this year, reflecting the growing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price reached 1135.49 yuan per gram, increasing by 20.96 yuan, a rise of 1.88% compared to the previous trading day, indicating a strong rebound [1] - The opening price for the day was reported at 1119.75 yuan per gram, with a daily high of 1137.55 yuan and a low of 1119.16 yuan [1] - A bullish sentiment is evident in the gold market, with 80% of Wall Street analysts and 71% of retail investors expecting an increase in gold prices for the upcoming week [4] Group 2: U.S. Rare Earth Investment - The U.S. government plans to invest $1.6 billion in domestic rare earth companies to strengthen the critical mineral supply chain, marking the largest investment in this sector by the Trump administration [2] - The government will acquire a 10% stake in USA Rare Earth, with a total payment of $2.77 million for 16.1 million shares at $17.17 each, alongside a $1 billion private financing round [2] - The investment is expected to yield an implied profit of approximately $490 million based on the current market price of $24.77 per share [2] Group 3: U.S.-India Trade Relations - U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the 25% tariff imposed on Indian imports of Russian oil has led to a significant reduction in India's purchases, suggesting a potential for tariff removal if India continues to adjust its energy import strategy [3] - The tariff policy has been described as a "huge success," providing substantial benefits to the U.S. economy [3] - The potential removal of tariffs could reshape U.S.-India trade relations and influence the global energy trade landscape [3] Group 4: Future Gold Price Projections - Analysts predict that gold prices could exceed $5000, with a target of $6000 becoming mainstream among institutions due to geopolitical uncertainties and global demand for safe-haven assets [4] - The upcoming week will be crucial for monitoring economic indicators such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and consumer confidence, which could act as catalysts for price movements [4] - The current market conditions may represent a final opportunity for investors to position themselves before gold transitions from an "investment option" to a "strategic necessity" by 2026 [4]

截至2026年1月23日当周，沪铅期货主力合约收于17095元/吨，周K线收阳，持仓量环比上周减持17474 手。 机构观点汇总： 本周（1月19日-1月23日）市场上看，沪铅期货周内开盘报17400元/吨，最高触及17410元/吨，最低下探 至17035元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-2.84%。 南华期货（603093）：基本面上，原生铅虽原料偏紧，TC维持低位，但高价刺激生产。再生铅方面， 环保限产解除与高价共同刺激再生铅冶炼。需求端，铅蓄电池开工率维稳运行，但远期看需求端缺少新 兴驱动。且终端电瓶车面临节后淡季以及新国标压制，消费转淡。库存端，LME持续去库，国内库存 大幅累库。展望未来，短期铅多空缺少驱动，铅价上下空间由再生铅生产弹性控制，区间震荡为主。 消息面回顾： 1月22日，上期所沪铅期货仓单录得27765吨，较上一交易日增长201吨；最近一周，沪铅期货仓单累计 增长1692吨，增长幅度为6.49%；最近一个月，沪铅期货仓单累计增长15256吨，增长幅度为121.96%。 1月22日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铅注册仓单187075吨。注销仓单31350吨，减少4225吨。铅库存 218425吨，减少4 ...

本期（20260114-0120），国内69家样本改性沥青企业产能利用率为6.3%，环比减少0.5%，同比增加 3.5%。改性沥青对沥青周度消费量为3.7万吨，环比降幅8.1%。 机构观点汇总： 新湖期货：市场传山东某炼厂回购前期合同，部分市场参与者认为，当前炼厂存在原料紧缺的情况。近 期贸易商二季度原料报价偏高，市场预计后续难再采购到高经济性的原料，成本有所增加。目前，现货 市场基本保持稳定，北方需求基本停滞，以缓慢入库为主，南方地区发货稳定，市场低价资源减少。年 前需求难有起色，盘面价格跟随原油价格变动，关注原料情况。 建信期货：供应端，胜星石化16日开始计划转产沥青，但齐鲁石化（600002）15日开始转产渣油，下周 沥青装置开工负荷率预计基本持平。需求端，未来十天冷空气势力增强，黄淮至江南有明显雨雪过程。 华东、华中等地道路施工项目可能逐步进入收尾或停工阶段。北方地区冬储合同将持续到货，预计需求 端整体波动有限。伴随终端需求季节性回落，且缺乏新增利好因素支撑，沥青市场情绪或扔偏谨慎，投 机需求预计增量有限。总体来看沥青原料利多逐步消化后，供需再度回到均衡水平，预计价格震荡运 行，关注油价表现。 本周（ ...