Core Viewpoint - The global market for in-car infotainment systems is experiencing a 3% year-on-year growth in 2024, with suppliers adapting to consumer demands for interactive and seamless experiences while also considering safety factors due to the increasing integration with critical safety functions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - In 2024, China, the United States, and Europe account for 70% of the global passenger car infotainment system market [1]. - Over 94% of infotainment systems in the European market are supplied by non-Chinese vendors, while this figure exceeds 99% in the U.S. market [1]. - Conversely, nearly 80% of new domestic vehicles in China are equipped with infotainment systems from local suppliers [1]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Chinese infotainment system suppliers leverage local advantages and lower labor costs to provide cost-effective solutions [1]. - These suppliers offer easily integrable systems to both domestic and international automakers and are actively investing in software platform development to cater to regional consumer preferences [1]. - As Chinese automakers expand internationally, their supporting suppliers are also entering global markets, enhancing competition [1][2]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - International mainstream automakers are increasingly inclined to collaborate with local infotainment suppliers to reduce logistics costs and improve supply chain efficiency [2]. - The aggressive pricing strategies of Chinese automakers are reshaping the global competitive landscape, prompting non-Chinese manufacturers to reassess their cost and financial strategies to maintain market positions [2].

Group 1 - The 2025 Shanghai MWC will focus on key industry topics such as mobile terminals, AI, 6G, satellite communication, and AIoT [1] - Counterpoint's Vice President Neil Shah will participate in the official closing forum hosted by GSMA, discussing major trends and insights in AI advancements, 5G technology development, network integration, and digital transformation strategies [3] - The event aims to explore the transformative trends in the industry, including AI-enabled terminal changes, the vision and key technology research for 6G, the scaling of satellite communication, and new scenarios for AIoT [3] Group 2 - The conference will provide opportunities for industry professionals to engage with analysts and gain insights into the global market positioning and challenges faced by Chinese manufacturers [3] - Counterpoint Research encourages continuous engagement to obtain in-depth insights into the global technology market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global smartphone manufacturing output is expected to decline by 1% in 2025, influenced by tariffs and an overall slowdown in the industry, contrasting with a 4% growth in 2024 [1][4]. Regional Manufacturing Insights - China, India, and Vietnam are projected to account for over 90% of global smartphone production in 2024, with India showing the fastest growth. However, manufacturing output is expected to diverge across regions in 2025 [1][4]. - China will experience significant tariff impacts, leading to a decline in smartphone manufacturing output and a weak domestic market [4][6]. - India is anticipated to be the biggest beneficiary, with a projected double-digit percentage growth in manufacturing output, reaching 20% of global production for the first time, driven by sustained export demand from Apple and Samsung [4][6]. - Vietnam is expected to see steady growth in production, benefiting from increased output by Samsung and Motorola amid tariff pressures and manufacturing shifts [4][6]. Manufacturing Capacity and Ecosystem - India's local manufacturing capabilities have significantly improved over the past decade, supported by investments from global EMS giants and local firms, enabling it to meet higher production demands [8]. - The Indian government has introduced the Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme (ECMS) to encourage investment in local manufacturing [8]. - Other regions are likely to maintain a slight downward trend in manufacturing share due to limited local market demand and investment scale [8]. Long-term Outlook - India is projected to emerge as a long-term winner in the global smartphone manufacturing landscape, with potential cost increases for products manufactured in the U.S. due to various factors, including labor costs and logistics [9].

Core Insights - The foldable smartphone market in Europe remains a niche segment, with only 1.5% of total smartphone sales in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4% [1][3][6] Market Overview - The 4% year-on-year growth in foldable smartphone sales is seen as a warning sign for a category still in its early growth phase, with high pricing and consumer uncertainty regarding value and durability being significant barriers [3][6] - Samsung continues to lead the market, but has faced significant competition leading to a decline in market share since Q1 2024 [6][8] - Motorola has overtaken HONOR to become the second-largest foldable smartphone brand in Europe, with Google, Xiaomi, and TECNO also performing well after launching competitive new products [6][8] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for foldable smartphones is intensifying, with several brands launching innovative products that challenge Samsung's long-standing dominance [8] - Upcoming releases from Samsung, including the Galaxy Fold7 Ultra, are expected to reinvigorate the market and address the competitive pressures [8]

Core Insights - The global new energy vehicle (NEV) battery installation volume is expected to grow by 22% year-on-year in 2024, with Chinese manufacturers surpassing a 70% market share [2][4] - CATL leads the market with a 38% share, followed by BYD at 18%, benefiting from strong domestic demand and export expansion [2][4] - The shift in battery structure is influenced by the rising share of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which increased from 30% in 2023 to 37% in 2024, impacting overall average battery capacity [4] Market Dynamics - The decline in market share for LG Energy Solution, Panasonic, and SK Innovation is attributed to weak demand in Europe and the US, delays in new factory launches, and reduced orders from traditional automakers [2] - CALB is the only second-tier manufacturer maintaining stable momentum amidst these challenges [2] Battery Capacity Trends - Despite an increase in average battery capacity for battery electric vehicles (BEVs), the overall average battery capacity for NEVs decreased by 1% due to the higher proportion of PHEVs [4] - PHEVs are particularly popular in regions with underdeveloped charging infrastructure, such as Europe and China [4] Supply Chain Adjustments - Upcoming tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and battery components in Europe and the US are prompting a restructuring of global supply chains [4] - Automakers are shifting production to Mexico, the southeastern US, India, and Indonesia to avoid high import costs, while reevaluating their strategies for battery, power system, and chip production [4] Analyst Perspectives - Counterpoint analysts emphasize that China's battery advantages now extend beyond cost to include scale, execution, and industry integration [2] - Policy pressures are forcing automakers to rethink production layouts, with localized and flexible supply chains becoming crucial for the future [4]

Core Insights - The global flat panel display market is expected to grow by 11% year-on-year in 2024, driven by strong performance across various product categories, particularly televisions and tablets [2][3] - The automotive sector is anticipated to become a significant growth driver in the future, with high single-digit to low double-digit revenue growth rates expected [3][7] Market Performance - In 2024, television panel revenue is projected to increase by 19%, primarily due to rising demand in the large-size segment, which also improves the overall average selling price [2] - Smartphone panel revenue is expected to remain flat, aligning with downstream shipment trends, and is projected to decline in the long term [2][3] Product Insights - The iPad 13 Pro series utilizing OLED panels is contributing to a recovery in tablet revenue, returning to pre-pandemic levels [2] - The flat panel display market is entering a product-driven growth phase, with expectations for a new cycle around 2027 when foldable devices from Apple are anticipated to enter the market [2] Sector Analysis - Monitor and PC panel revenues are expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2024 after hitting a low at the end of 2023, with future growth projected to stabilize at mid-single-digit levels [5] - The AR/VR panel market is facing a downturn due to declining device shipments, but growth is expected to resume in the next couple of years, particularly with the integration of AI technologies [7] Automotive Sector - The automotive display market is highlighted as a key growth area, with increasing demand for larger and more sophisticated displays driving revenue growth [7][9] - The evolution of in-cabin infotainment systems is becoming a competitive battleground for automakers, especially among Chinese manufacturers [9]

Core Insights - Apple iPhone 16 became the best-selling smartphone globally in Q1 2025, marking a return to the top spot for the base model after two years [6][7] - Apple maintained a strong presence in the Top 10 list, occupying five positions for the fifth consecutive March quarter, while Samsung saw a decrease in models listed compared to the previous year [2][6] - The low-end smartphone segment (priced under $100) showed significant growth, accounting for nearly 20% of global smartphone sales in Q1 2025 [6][8] Group 1 - iPhone 16 performed exceptionally well in Japan and the Middle East and Africa, with Japan showing the highest growth rate for the base model due to improved economic conditions and subsidy policy adjustments [5][6] - iPhone 16 Pro Max and iPhone 16 Pro ranked second and third respectively, although the Pro series faced challenges in the Chinese market due to government subsidies favoring models priced below 6,000 yuan (approximately $833) and intense competition from Huawei [5][6] - iPhone 16e debuted strongly, ranking sixth in the global Top 10 list in its first month of sales, with expectations to surpass the previous SE model's first-year sales due to significant technological upgrades [7][8] Group 2 - Samsung Galaxy S25 Ultra ranked seventh in Q1 2025, down from fifth place in Q1 2024, attributed to a shorter sales window [6][7] - Galaxy A16 5G rose to fifth place, achieving a 17% year-over-year growth, primarily due to expanded distribution in North America, which became its largest market [7][8] - Galaxy A06 saw significant growth, moving up four positions compared to its predecessor, reflecting a general increase in demand for low-end smartphones, particularly in emerging markets [8]

市场要点 Counterpoint Research Apple智能手机出货量在2025年Q1同比增长12%，位居前五大品牌之首，增长主要得益于北 美、日本和印度市场的强劲表现，以及iPhone 16e的推出。 印度高端化趋势持续， Apple 出货量同比增长29%。 Apple 在印度二、三线城市的深入渗 透，以及本地制造和研发投资，推动其强劲增长势头。 北美市场出货量同比增长21%，受益于 iPhone 16e 的发布，该机型增强了苹果在中端市场的吸 引力，并压缩了竞争对手的市场空间。中端市场 高端设备的需求增长及现有库存缓冲，帮助 Apple 在面临关税压力的背景下仍保持增长动能。 2008年-2024年Apple iPhone市场份额 Apple iPhone出货量市场份额 2023年Q1 - 2025年Q1 Apple iPhone出货量市场份额-季度 | | Apple iPhone Shipments Market Share (%) | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The smartphone market in the Middle East and Africa is experiencing a recovery with a 7% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, driven by strong holiday demand, improved supply, and moderate inflation [1][4]. Market Dynamics - In 2024, the smartphone market in the region is expected to enter an adjustment phase as brands focus on clearing old inventory and reducing new product launches, leading to a decrease in active brands [2]. - The recovery in early 2025 is attributed to supply improvements and the release of pent-up demand, particularly for budget models priced under $100 [2][4]. Smartphone Shipment Growth - The growth in smartphone shipments is primarily seen in the low-end market, which is the fastest-growing segment due to increased competition [4]. - The penetration rates for 5G and OLED technologies reached 33% and 42%, respectively, supported by network deployments and the introduction of popular large-screen Android devices [4][5]. Brand Performance - Samsung maintained its market leadership with a 15% year-on-year increase in shipments, focusing on fewer, higher-quality models [9]. - Transsion holds a 32% market share, up from 29% the previous year, with TECNO leading in the mid-range market due to strong promotions [9]. - Xiaomi's shipments decreased by 2%, but its LTE smartphones saw a 27% increase, indicating a competitive push in the low-end market [10]. - Apple experienced a 4% increase in shipments, driven by the launch of the iPhone 16e, which performed well in price-sensitive markets [10].

Core Viewpoint - AI agents are reshaping the global technology landscape, serving as a new interface that can execute tasks based on simple commands, fundamentally changing human-computer interaction and challenging the dominance of smartphone manufacturers over operating systems [1][2]. Group 1: Rise of AI Agents - The future may see multiple AI agents coexisting on a single smartphone, each acting as an entry point for different services, leading to a multi-agent ecosystem [2][3]. - Major tech companies like Meta, Tencent, and ByteDance are leveraging AI agents to strengthen their ecosystem, creating closed systems that lock users into their platforms and diminish the control of smartphone brands [2][3]. Group 2: Implications for Smartphone Manufacturers - Smartphone manufacturers risk becoming mere hardware assemblers if they fail to adapt to the AI era, losing control over software, services, and revenue streams [5][6]. - The introduction of proprietary AI agents by smartphone brands can serve as intermediaries to direct user needs to their partners, creating opportunities for emerging startups to gain traffic support [5][6]. Group 3: New Business Opportunities - A new model of AI agent distribution is emerging, where users select agents based on their needs, prompting smartphone manufacturers to upgrade their app stores to AI agent stores [6]. - To seize this opportunity, manufacturers must invest in an open AI ecosystem, supporting independent AI startups and ensuring seamless integration of third-party agents to counter the closed ecosystems of internet giants [6].