Core Insights - Counterpoint Research's report ranks Hangzhou as one of the most promising AI cities globally, highlighting its rapid rise in the AI sector since the launch of DeepSeek in 2024 [4][5] - The report evaluates 100 major urban areas based on eight quantitative indicators, showcasing Hangzhou's strong performance in AI development [5][7] Group 1: Transformation from E-commerce Hub to AI Powerhouse - Hangzhou is transitioning from being known as the "E-commerce Capital" to a "Global AI Hub," driven by robust government policies and an active industrial ecosystem [5][6] - The city is recognized for its strong government support and research foundation, which are expected to further enhance its ranking in the future [5][6] Group 2: Policy and Industry Synergy - The rapid growth of Hangzhou in the AI field is attributed to a combination of top-level policy design and a vibrant industrial ecosystem [6] - The city has developed a collaborative structure featuring innovative enterprises and industry clusters, which enhances its capabilities in digital economy development and key technology applications [6] Group 3: DeepSeek Effect and Supercomputing Performance - Hangzhou is identified as the birthplace of DeepSeek, which has lowered the barriers to AI technology and fostered the clustering of AI industries [8] - In the realm of supercomputing, Hangzhou ranks alongside Shenzhen and Chengdu, showcasing strong performance in the "new supercomputers" segment [8] Group 4: Evaluation Metrics of AI Cities - The report employs a rigorous quantitative assessment method across eight core dimensions, including government initiatives, infrastructure, innovation ecosystems, and macro environment [7][9] - It identifies 117 data center and supercomputing initiatives globally, providing a reference for cities in their digital transformation efforts [7]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry has officially entered the "Wafer Foundry 2.0" era, characterized by deep integration of manufacturing, packaging, and testing, driven by the global AI boom, leading to higher quality growth [4][8]. Group 1: Market Overview - The global wafer foundry 2.0 market revenue is expected to grow by 17% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching $84.8 billion, primarily driven by the demand for AI GPUs in front-end wafer manufacturing and advanced packaging [4][8]. - TSMC continues to lead the pure wafer foundry market with a 41% year-on-year revenue growth, supported by the ramp-up of 3nm chips for Apple's flagship smartphones and strong demand from AI accelerator customers like NVIDIA and AMD [7][8]. - Non-TSMC wafer foundries experienced a modest 6% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, indicating a diminishing effect from previous tariff-related orders, although local subsidy policies in China still provide some support [8][12]. Group 2: Segment Performance - Non-storage IDM manufacturers saw a brief recovery with a 4% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, led by a 14% increase from Texas Instruments [8][12]. - The OSAT industry continued its growth momentum with a 10% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, driven by strong demand for advanced packaging, particularly from companies like ASE and SPIL [8][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The overall wafer foundry 2.0 market revenue growth for 2025 is projected to be around 15%, with the pure wafer foundry market expected to grow by 26%, supported by ongoing shipments of AI GPUs and ASICs [10]. - TSMC's advanced packaging capabilities are anticipated to continue driving revenue growth into 2026, with a focus on NVIDIA's AI GPU platforms [9][10]. - The OSAT sector is expected to see a significant increase in advanced packaging capacity by 100% in 2026, with AI GPU and ASIC demand becoming the primary growth engines for OSAT manufacturers [12].

Core Insights - The article discusses the approval of L3-level conditional autonomous driving vehicles in China, specifically the Changan Deep Blue SL03 and BAIC Arcfox αS6, highlighting their operational limitations and the significance of this regulatory milestone [4][6]. Group 1: Regulatory Approval and Market Impact - On December 15, 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China approved Changan and BAIC's applications for L3-level autonomous vehicles, allowing them to operate under specific conditions [4][6]. - The approval is seen as a symbolic milestone that exceeds the immediate production value, with the first half of 2026 expected to be a critical window for mass production of L3-level autonomous vehicles in China [6][7]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) 14.2 system is anticipated to enter mass production in China between Q2 and Q3 of 2026, increasing competitive pressure on local automakers [6]. - Joint ventures represented by companies like BMW, GM, and Mercedes are likely to miss the approval window for L3-level autonomous production in 2026 due to internal communication and localization compliance challenges [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Approved Models - Both approved models, Changan Deep Blue SL03 and BAIC Arcfox αS6, are based on L2-level hardware but have been adapted for specific L3 operational design domains (ODD) [7]. - Changan's solution relies on pure visual perception and a rule-based planning and control system, reflecting the company's ongoing advancements since 2020 [10]. - BAIC's approach utilizes multi-sensor fusion and an end-to-end software architecture, optimized for L3 highway scenarios based on Huawei's commercial autonomous driving system [10]. Group 4: Future Projections - Additional models from companies such as BYD, FAW, GAC, NIO, and SAIC are expected to receive L3-level approval, with models from XPeng, Tesla, and those equipped with Huawei ADS 4.0 anticipated to launch in the latter half of 2026 [7].

Core Insights - The display glass industry is undergoing a significant shift, with China mainland dominating the global market, accounting for 75% of the share by 2025 [6][7] - The report highlights the technological advancements in display glass that enhance performance boundaries [9] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a mix of international giants and local players, with three major international firms and two leading Chinese companies [10] Group 1: Industry Shift - The flat panel display industry has seen a notable restructuring over the past decade, transitioning from dominance by the US, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to China mainland due to large-scale investments and capacity reductions in other regions [6] - By 2025, China mainland is projected to hold 75% of the global display glass market share, with the largest 10.5 generation factories located there contributing 25% to the market [7] Group 2: Technological Drivers - Display glass serves as a foundational support for backplanes and is crucial for enhancing display performance [9] - The industry is witnessing a rise in standards for screen defect regulations, driven by devices achieving ultra-high pixel densities, such as the Samsung S25 Ultra with 498 ppi [12] - The evolution of backplane technologies, including LTPS, LTPO, and oxide backplanes, is prompting glass manufacturers to develop high-temperature resistant specialty glass for precision lithography [12] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The global display glass market is currently led by three international manufacturers and two prominent local companies [10] - Corning, as the pioneer of the fusion draw method, maintains a leading market position with extensive production in China mainland and invests 8% of its revenue in R&D [12] - Local players like Irico and Tunghsu are showcasing unique advantages through vertical integration and face significant compliance challenges, respectively [12]

Core Insights - The global cellular IoT module shipments are projected to grow by 10% year-on-year in Q3 2025, driven by strong demand in smart meters, asset tracking, routers/CPE, and automotive applications [4][7] - Emerging markets, particularly India with a 40% year-on-year growth, are leading the growth, while mature markets like China and Europe show moderate increases [4][6][7] Market Trends - The transition from traditional RF/PLC systems to cellular networks is accelerating, laying the groundwork for capability-centric IoT deployments [4] - The average selling price (ASP) is declining, making cash flow strength a key differentiator among suppliers [4][7] - Cat-1 bis technology has solidified its position as a major contributor to global shipments, accounting for nearly half of the total [7][8] Supplier Performance - Quectel maintains its leading position globally, benefiting from strong market shares in both China and overseas [6] - China Mobile ranks second, driven by domestic demand, while SIMCom and Longsung rank third, propelled by shipments of POS and smart meters [6] - Lierda has seen a 73% year-on-year growth, leveraging Cat-1 bis technology and increased adoption in South Korea and Southeast Asia [6] Technological Developments - AI-enabled IoT modules are experiencing significant demand across various sectors, including monitoring, automotive, industrial, and retail [8] - The industry is shifting focus towards higher-value, AI-powered IoT solutions, with suppliers investing in edge intelligence, security software, and 5G-ready combinations [7][8] - RedCap is entering the commercial phase, but substantial scaling will depend on its pricing competitiveness with Cat-4/Cat-6 levels and broader 5G standalone network coverage [8]

Core Insights - Counterpoint Research predicts a 46% year-on-year growth in foldable smartphone panel shipments by 2026, driven by Apple's entry into the market with its first foldable iPhone [4][5] - The book-style foldable panels are expected to solidify their dominant position, with Samsung Display projected to capture over 50% market share [4][5] - The overall foldable smartphone shipments are forecasted to grow by 14% in 2025 and 38% in 2026, with book-style models leading the market [5][7] Market Trends - The demand for larger screens and enhanced multitasking capabilities is driving consumer preference towards book-style foldable designs, despite their higher price [7] - The global foldable smartphone market is showing signs of recovery, with a 45% year-on-year growth in Q2 2025, setting the stage for explosive growth in 2026 [7] - The introduction of new models, such as the Galaxy Z TriFold, will maintain the market share of multi-fold designs in the low single digits [5][7] Company Overview - Counterpoint Research specializes in technology ecosystem market research, providing services to a wide range of clients from smartphone OEMs to chip manufacturers and large tech companies [8] - The company has a team of experienced analysts covering various sectors, including AI, automotive electronics, consumer electronics, and semiconductors [8]

Core Insights - The global smartphone shipment volume is expected to decline by 2.1% in 2026 due to rising storage costs, marking a downward revision of 2.6 percentage points from previous forecasts [4][5][7]. Group 1: Market Trends - The increase in component costs is anticipated to impact end-user demand, particularly affecting Chinese OEMs like HONOR, OPPO, and vivo, which have seen significant adjustments in their forecasts [5][7]. - The average selling price of smartphones is projected to increase by 6.9% in 2026, up from a previous estimate of 3.6%, driven by rising Bill of Materials (BoM) costs [7][10]. Group 2: Cost Implications - DRAM prices have risen, leading to an increase in BoM costs by approximately 25% for low-end models, 15% for mid-range, and 10% for high-end models, with further increases expected in the second quarter of 2026 [7][9]. - The cost of storage is projected to rise by about 40% before the second quarter of 2026, further exacerbating BoM costs [9]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - OEMs are likely to adjust their product strategies in response to cost pressures, with some low-SKU models already experiencing reduced shipments [10]. - Companies are adopting various strategies, including adjusting specifications of camera modules, displays, and storage configurations, as well as streamlining product lines to cope with market changes [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the robust growth of Apple's iPad shipments in Q3 2025, driven by a balanced mix of high-end and basic models, with a projected 10% year-on-year growth in 2026 due to pent-up upgrade demand and technological advancements [4][6][7]. Group 1: iPad Market Performance - In Q3 2025, Apple's iPad shipments increased by 4% year-on-year, with high-end models playing a significant role while basic and smaller models provided stable support [4][7]. - The average selling price (ASP) of iPads slightly decreased due to seasonal education discounts and intensified price competition, but overall revenue remained stable [4]. - For the entire year of 2025, iPad total revenue is expected to benefit from the increased market share of high-end models [7]. Group 2: Future Outlook - In 2026, iPad shipments are projected to grow by approximately 10% year-on-year, with a slight increase in the contribution from basic models and sustained strength from high-end models [6][7]. - Key technological changes, such as the broader adoption of OLED panels and the introduction of new high-end devices, are anticipated to stimulate demand [6]. - Apple's market share is expected to temporarily rise to nearly 40%, marking one of its strongest performances in recent years and solidifying its leadership in the global tablet market [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the smartphone market trends and shipment volumes, highlighting the performance of major brands in the U.S. market for Q3 2025 and the impact of various economic factors on these trends [4][8][11]. Market Highlights - Despite ongoing tariff issues, U.S. smartphone shipments saw a slight year-on-year increase in Q3 2025, attributed to a rise in imports from Vietnam and India, compensating for the decline in imports from China [8][11]. - Apple experienced a decline in market share both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, yet maintained growth in annual shipments due to strong performance from the iPhone 16e. The iPhone 17 series shipments remained stable but faced challenges from strong demand [8][11]. - Samsung's market share saw a minor increase of 1 basis point year-on-year but a decrease of 3 basis points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to strong growth from Google [8][11]. - Motorola's performance weakened in Q3 due to soft prepaid demand influenced by macroeconomic and political factors, leading to a decline in its market share [8][11]. - HMD exited the U.S. market, prompting a cessation of tracking for this brand by the research firm [8][11]. Brand Performance - In Q2 2024, Apple held a 52% market share, which increased to 53% in Q3 2024, but dropped to 50% by Q3 2025. Samsung's share fluctuated, reaching 24% in Q3 2024 and stabilizing at 24% in Q3 2025. Lenovo's share remained consistent at 12% during the same period [9][15]. - The overall smartphone shipment volume in Q1 2025 increased by 9% year-on-year, driven by preemptive stocking to avoid potential tariff impacts, particularly in March [15][21]. - Motorola achieved its highest market share of 11% in Q1 2025, attributed to the early launch of its G series and improved positioning in the prepaid market [15][21]. Economic Impact - The article notes that the U.S. smartphone market faced a 9% year-on-year decline in Q4 2024, influenced by low upgrade rates and extended upgrade cycles. Apple and Samsung both experienced declines in shipments during this period [18][21]. - In Q3 2024, the U.S. smartphone market saw a 6% year-on-year decline, primarily due to weak demand in both prepaid and postpaid channels [21].

Core Insights - Google led the postpaid promotional value ahead of Black Friday, but its promotional efforts were slightly weaker than Apple's during the event [4][5] - The postpaid promotional landscape remains competitive and evolving, with Google launching early promotions for the Pixel 10 series to capture holiday sales momentum [5][7] - Apple increased advertising efforts to catch up with Google, introducing aggressive promotions for the iPhone 17 series through T-Mobile and Verizon [7] - Samsung maintained strong promotional efforts in the postpaid market, although many offers required trade-ins or stricter plan conditions [7][8] Promotional Trends - Motorola and Samsung led the prepaid promotional market, with Metro offering significant discounts across various price tiers [8][10] - Total Wireless ranked second in promotional efforts, featuring substantial discounts on iPhone models during Black Friday [10] - The average promotional price rankings showed Motorola and Samsung tied for first, with TCL in third place [8] Market Dynamics - The foot traffic during Black Friday reflected economic conditions, with lower store visits compared to previous years [11] - The reliance on installment plans for smartphone purchases indicates resilience in the U.S. smartphone market under macroeconomic pressures [11] - The absence of tariffs on smartphone pricing due to agreements with India, Vietnam, and China has kept consumer costs stable [11]