Core Viewpoint - Counterpoint Research highlights the upcoming Apple 'Awe Dropping' Event, focusing on product adjustments and market performance, particularly in the smartphone and wearable segments [5][8]. iPhone - Apple plans to adjust its product lineup with the new iPhone series, featuring design changes in the Pro models, an upgrade to the A19 chip, and a 24 million pixel front camera. The non-Pro series will introduce a 120Hz display for the first time [8]. - The new iPhone 17 Air is expected to replace the iPhone 16 Plus, aiming for a lighter design and potentially a single camera setup, with sales performance anticipated to match that of the 16 Plus [8]. - iPhone shipments are projected to grow by 5% year-on-year by 2025, with Apple maintaining a 62% market share in the high-end segment, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [8]. Apple Watch & AirPods - After seven consecutive quarters of decline, Apple Watch shipments are expected to return to growth by Q3 2025, with the launch of the 10th anniversary Apple Watch Series 11, Watch Ultra 3, and AirPods Pro 3, emphasizing enhanced health features [8]. - A new Watch SE 3 may also be introduced to attract price-sensitive consumers, further expanding the user base [8]. Market Performance - In Q2 2025, Apple's shipment volume in China grew by 1% year-on-year, driven by significant price reductions on the iPhone 16 series, which also impacted Huawei's market share in the high-end segment [9]. - Globally, Apple held a 17% market share with an 11% year-on-year growth, ranking first among the top five brands, supported by strong demand for the iPhone 16 and preemptive shipments in North America ahead of expected tariffs [11]. - In Q1 2025, Apple's global revenue increased by 5% to $95.3 billion, driven by hardware (up 3%) and services (up 12%), marking the fourth consecutive quarter of synchronized growth in both categories [13]. Regional Insights - In Q1 2025, Apple's smartphone shipments grew by 12% year-on-year, the highest among the top five brands, fueled by strong performance in North America, Japan, and India, along with the release of the iPhone 16e [16]. - In India, Apple saw a 29% year-on-year increase in shipments, supported by deeper penetration into second and third-tier cities and local manufacturing and R&D investments [21]. - North American shipments rose by 21% year-on-year, with the iPhone 16e enhancing mid-tier appeal and helping Apple maintain momentum despite tariff concerns [21].

Core Insights - The global high-end smartphone market saw an 8% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025, marking the highest record for this period [4][5] - The high-end segment contributed over 60% of global smartphone revenue, highlighting its strategic importance [5] - Apple remains the largest brand in the high-end market with a 62% share, although its market share has slightly declined due to faster growth from other OEMs [5][9] Market Trends - The trend of "premiumization" is becoming increasingly evident across various regions, driven by enhanced consumer engagement and affordability [5] - The top ten high-end markets accounted for nearly 80% of sales, with India being the fastest-growing market at 37% year-on-year [9][10] - Foldable smartphones are emerging as a niche but growing category, with Apple expected to enter this market in 2026 [10] Brand Performance - Xiaomi has significantly improved its position in the high-end segment, with a 55% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by its performance in China [9][10] - Google has re-entered the top five high-end smartphone brands after five years, with its Pixel 9 series seeing a doubling in sales [9][10] - Samsung achieved a 7% year-on-year growth, supported by the performance of its S25 series [9][10] Technological Innovations - Devices with generative AI capabilities accounted for over 80% of high-end smartphone sales in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards AI ecosystems [10]

以下文章来源于Counterpoint 咨询 ，作者Counterpoint 根据 Counterpoint Research《全球智能手机市场出货量追踪（2025年Q2）》 报告显示，日本2025 年Q2智能手机出货量同比增长11%，在市场已经成熟的背景下，依然实现了连续第二个季度的双位 数增长。本季度市场主要y由苹果带动，整体份额显著提升。这一表现反映出运营商促销力度的持续 加大，其中"旧机回收换购"模式（市场俗称"一日元机"）已成为刺激换机需求的主流机制。 日本智能手机出货量及同比增速 2024年Q2 vs 2025年Q2 Counterpoint 咨询 . Counterpoint Research 是一家专注于科技行业的全球性研究公司，在全球主要的市场有着强大的影响 力。我们致力于为合作伙伴提供准确、及时的市场数据，帮助他们做出明智的决策。 积极的促销活动也在持续推动市场增长。其中，以旧机回收计划为基础的"一日元机"促销活动已成 为关键驱动力，有效降低了用户的换机门槛，带动了新的签约、设备升级甚至第二台设备的购买。 此外，运营商推出的机型折扣、积分返利、扩容数据套餐、服务捆绑及MNP优惠等措施，也在 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights that Apple Watch's cumulative revenue is projected to exceed $100 billion by Q2 2025, driven by the evolution of health features and product diversification [4][7] - Apple has created a new category in the high-end watch market, challenging traditional mechanical watches, and has segmented its product line to cater to different consumer price sensitivities [4][6] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with rivals improving hardware design and health monitoring capabilities, leading to a decline in Apple Watch sales over the past seven quarters [6][7] Revenue and Growth Projections - As of Q2 2025, Apple Watch's cumulative revenue is expected to surpass $100 billion, attributed to leading health functionalities and a diversified product lineup [4][7] - The introduction of new models such as Watch Series 11, Watch Ultra 3, and potentially Watch SE 3 is anticipated to drive a recovery in sales growth in the latter half of 2025 [7][8] Competitive Landscape - The competition is becoming more fierce, with companies like Garmin excelling in niche markets such as running and diving, and Huawei leading the smartwatch market in China as of Q2 2025 [6][7] - Emerging categories like screenless fitness bands may pose additional challenges to the health functionalities of smartwatches [6] Product Features and Innovations - Apple continues to lead in innovation with health features such as FDA-approved ECG and sleep apnea detection, but faces challenges from competitors enhancing their health monitoring technologies [6][7] - The integration of Apple Watch with iPhone is crucial for strengthening the Apple ecosystem and retaining users [4][7]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's diversified strategy is supporting resilient growth, with significant contributions from its automotive and IoT businesses, despite a decline in smartphone revenue [4][10]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Xiaomi's revenue grew by 30.5% year-over-year, with the smartphone business accounting for less than half of total revenue [4]. - The IoT business achieved a record revenue of 38.7 billion yuan, marking a 44.7% year-over-year increase, driven by the expansion of offline stores [8]. - Smartphone revenue declined by 2% year-over-year, with a 2.7% drop in average selling price (ASP) [10]. Product and Market Strategy - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments have seen eight consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth, although revenue was offset by ASP declines [9]. - The launch of the YU7 electric SUV exceeded expectations with over 240,000 orders in 18 hours, indicating strong demand for Xiaomi's automotive offerings [15]. - Xiaomi plans to open 1,000 new direct stores annually to enhance channel control and operational efficiency [8]. Innovation and R&D - Xiaomi's first self-developed 3nm flagship chip, XRING O1, has been officially released, showcasing its commitment to long-term innovation and breakthroughs in the high-end market [9][15]. - The company is expected to invest 30 billion yuan in R&D by 2025, with approximately 25% allocated to AI [15]. Strategic Insights - The integration of smartphones, electric vehicles, and AIoT is central to Xiaomi's strategy, creating a connected ecosystem that enhances user engagement and drives IoT hardware sales [11]. - Xiaomi's electric vehicle business is projected to achieve quarterly or monthly profitability by late 2025, although full profitability will take longer due to significant initial investments [15].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth of smartphone manufacturing in India, driven by a 15% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q2 2025, primarily due to a 32% surge in exports and an 8% rise in domestic shipments [4][8]. - Dixon Technologies has emerged as the largest smartphone manufacturer in India, with a remarkable 196% increase in shipments, fueled by orders from Motorola, Transsion brands, Xiaomi, and Realme [4][8]. - The article emphasizes the critical role of Indian manufacturers as major Chinese OEMs outsource production to India, with expectations for further expansion of India's EMS landscape [6][9]. Export Growth - Apple has become the largest exporter in Q2, benefiting from geopolitical shifts and increased demand, particularly for iPhones, which has positively impacted Foxconn and Tata Electronics [9]. - The combined market share of Apple and Samsung in India's smartphone export market remains stable at over 93%, indicating a strong reliance on these brands for export growth [9]. - Future sustainability of India's EMS sector depends on building a robust local supply chain and increasing investment in domestic smartphone component manufacturing [9]. Market Dynamics - Bhagwati Products Limited (BPL) has entered the top five smartphone manufacturers in India, achieving the fastest growth in the market, supported by increased orders from Vivo and OPPO [4][8]. - The article notes that several manufacturers are forming joint ventures to invest in local component production, which will enhance India's domestic value addition [9]. - The Indian government's initiatives, such as the Electronics Components Manufacturing Plan, are expected to play a pivotal role in expanding the electronic manufacturing supply chain in India [6].

Core Insights - The global smartwatch shipment volume has increased by 8% year-on-year, marking a return to growth after five consecutive quarters of decline [3][4]. - Huawei has surpassed Apple for the first time in smartwatch shipments, becoming the global leader in Q2 2025, driven by a 52% year-on-year growth [4][6]. - The Chinese market plays a crucial role in this recovery, with rising consumer demand and a focus on multifunctional, ecosystem-integrated devices [4][8]. Market Performance - Huawei's global shipment share reached a historic high of 20% in Q2 2025, benefiting from strong performance in the Chinese market and strategic expansion overseas [8]. - China has become the largest high-end smartwatch market globally, surpassing North America for the first time [8][11]. - The overall smartwatch market is expected to continue its recovery in 2025, with an estimated growth rate of around 7% [8][11]. Competitive Landscape - Apple has experienced a decline in global smartwatch shipments for seven consecutive quarters, losing its top position, but remains a leader in the high-end segment due to its iOS ecosystem and strong user loyalty [9][11]. - Xiaomi and Little Genius have seen significant growth in shipments, with Xiaomi excelling in the budget smartwatch market and Little Genius dominating the children's smartwatch segment [9]. - Samsung's shipments have decreased by 3%, reflecting a broader trend of consumer hesitation in purchasing, as many are waiting for new product releases expected in Q3 2025 [9][11]. Regional Insights - The strong performance of domestic brands and a loyal user base have propelled China to become the largest market for high-end smartwatches in Q2 2025 [11]. - The growth in the Chinese market is supported by affordable options, government subsidies, and deep integration with local application ecosystems [11]. - The global smartwatch market is entering a new innovation cycle, with health and AI becoming core differentiators for long-term competitive advantage [11].

Core Viewpoint - The smartphone shipment volume in Indonesia decreased by 7% year-on-year in Q2 2025 due to cautious consumer spending and macroeconomic uncertainties [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Most smartphone brands in Indonesia experienced a decline in shipment volume in Q2 2025, except for Samsung and Xiaomi, which saw year-on-year growth of 20% and 10% respectively [4][9]. - The demand during the holiday season was notably weaker compared to previous years, with consumer purchases focusing on entry-level models priced under $150, which saw a 3% increase in shipment volume [6][10]. - The government’s consumption stimulus policies primarily targeted basic livelihood areas, providing limited support to the smartphone market [6]. Group 2: Brand Performance - Samsung achieved the highest shipment growth among major manufacturers, with a 20% increase, positioning it as the second-largest brand in market share, following Xiaomi [6][9]. - Xiaomi maintained its market leadership with a 21% share, supported by offline channel expansion and a diversified product portfolio, including the newly launched 15 series and Pocophone F7 series [6][9]. - OPPO and Vivo experienced significant declines in shipment volume, with decreases of 14% and 29% respectively, due to a strategic shift towards higher price segments and a lack of new entry-level products [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The share of 5G smartphones in Indonesia reached a record high of 35% in Q2 2025, driven by the demand for entry-level models [10]. - The Indonesian government is enhancing 5G infrastructure by constructing 8,500 new base stations, which is expected to improve market conditions [10]. - As macroeconomic confidence improves in the second half of 2025, the smartphone market in Indonesia is anticipated to experience growth [12].

Core Insights - Counterpoint Research predicts that global semiconductor revenue will nearly double from 2024 to 2030, exceeding $1 trillion [4][5]. Group 1: Semiconductor Market Growth - The growth in semiconductor revenue is driven by the infrastructure needed for AI transformation, transitioning from GenAI to Agentic AI and eventually to Physical AI [5][9]. - Major demand will come from hyperscalers, with a focus on advanced AI server infrastructure to support the increasing needs for multi-modal GenAI applications [5][9]. Group 2: AI Token Economy - The emergence of the "Token economy" is highlighted, where tokens are becoming the new currency for AI, significantly increasing token consumption as applications evolve from basic text to richer multi-modal GenAI [7][10]. - The second phase of this economy is marked by exponential growth in token generation, supporting complex conversational AI and multimedia content production, which will drive substantial demand for computing power, memory, and networking in the semiconductor sector [7][10]. Group 3: Future of AI and Semiconductor Industry - The AI market in 2024 will be hardware-centric, with approximately 80% of direct revenue coming from semiconductor infrastructure and edge devices [10]. - The long-term evolution will see a shift from Agentic AI applications to Physical AI, promoting the development of autonomous robots and vehicles over the next decade [9][10].

Core Insights - The smartphone market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) experienced a 3% year-on-year growth in Q2 2025, marking the second consecutive quarter of growth driven by Eid al-Adha sales, economic recovery, and improved consumer purchasing power supported by stronger local currencies [4][7][8] - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones increased by 7% year-on-year, indicating a shift towards higher-end models among consumers [5][7] - The market is witnessing consolidation, with smaller brands facing challenges while leading players strengthen their positions through differentiated products and broader offline coverage [5][12] Market Performance - The smartphone market in MEA saw a 3% year-on-year increase in Q2 2025, supported by channel activities and affordable 5G models [7][8] - The 5G penetration rate reached 37%, with demand for affordable models under $100 driving sales, particularly in Nigeria [8] - The $200–$599 price segment accounted for 56% of the market, reflecting strong demand in this range [8] Brand Analysis - Transsion Group led the market with a 26% share, driven by TECNO's strong distribution and effective marketing [12] - Samsung achieved a 1% year-on-year growth, benefiting from its A series and AI-driven marketing strategies [12][13] - Apple saw a significant 28% increase in shipments, driven by strong promotions for the iPhone 16e and high-end demand [13] Consumer Trends - Consumers are increasingly favoring models with advanced features such as AI translation, 5G connectivity, and high-refresh-rate displays [5][8] - The entry-level price segment (under $100) continues to expand, maintaining the largest market share due to increased supply and financing options [5][8] - Many consumers are waiting for festive discounts to secure better prices, indicating a price-sensitive market [5]