Core Insights - Counterpoint Research forecasts a 3.3% year-on-year growth in global smartphone shipments by 2025, with Apple expected to reclaim the top position in market share at 19.4%, surpassing Samsung's 18.7% [5][6][9] - The strong performance of Apple's iPhone 17 series is anticipated to drive a 10% increase in iPhone shipments in 2025, with significant growth expected in key markets like China and the US [5][6][7] - The Chinese smartphone market is expected to see a divergence in performance among its top brands due to a sluggish domestic market and increased competition [5][10] Apple Insights - Apple's iPhone shipments exceeded expectations in Q3 2025, with a 9% year-on-year increase, driven by the successful launch of the iPhone 17 series [6][7] - The upcoming iPhone 17e and the first foldable iPhone are expected to further enhance Apple's market position, with a focus on high-end consumer demand in emerging markets [8] - The company benefits from a favorable macro environment, including lower-than-expected tariff impacts and a recovery in consumer confidence in key markets [7][8] Samsung Insights - Samsung is projected to achieve a 4.6% year-on-year growth in shipments by 2025, but will still lose its long-held top position in the global market [5][9] - The A series is expected to strengthen Samsung's growth in emerging markets, particularly in regions like India and Southeast Asia [9] - Despite a stable performance in mature markets, Samsung faces intense competition from Chinese brands in the mid-to-low-end market segments [9] Chinese Brands Insights - Major Chinese smartphone brands are increasingly relying on overseas markets for growth, with a clearer path in regions like India and Southeast Asia [10] - The transition to higher price segments and investment in premium devices are strategies to enhance profitability and reduce dependence on low-end markets [10] - Supply chain uncertainties, particularly in memory supply, pose challenges for growth, with a cautious outlook for 2026 where the top four brands are expected to see only a 1.7% growth rate [10]

Core Insights - The article presents quarterly insights into global smartphone operating system trends, focusing on market shares of Android, iOS, and HarmonyOS in the US, China, and India [4][6]. Global Market Overview - In Q3 2025, global smartphone sales increased by 4% year-on-year, marking the strongest performance for September since 2021. Android maintained a leading global market share of 79%, despite a 1% decline from Q3 2024. Samsung's Galaxy foldable series and early updates of certain A-series products helped mitigate this decline. HONOR's growth in various regions also supported Android's performance [9]. - iOS accounted for 17% of global sales in Q3 2025, up 1% from the previous year, driven by positive initial responses to the iPhone 17 series in key markets like the US, Japan, and India. The older iPhone 16 series also performed well during India's festive promotions [9]. - HarmonyOS captured a 14% market share in China in Q3 2025, surpassing other platforms to become the second-largest smartphone operating system in the country. The Huawei Nova 14 series was a key driver of this growth, although new models running HarmonyOS Next faced challenges due to early-stage ecosystem limitations [9]. Market Share Breakdown United States - Android's market share in the US was 45% in Q3 2025, down from 50% in Q2 2025. iOS held a 55% share in the same quarter [10]. China - In China, Android's market share was 69% in Q3 2025, a slight increase from 66% in Q2 2025. HarmonyOS maintained an 18% share, while iOS held 14% [12]. India - Android dominated the Indian market with a 92% share in Q3 2025, while iOS accounted for 8% [17].

Core Insights - In October, China's smartphone sales increased by 8% year-on-year, driven by Apple's 37% growth in sales [4][5][7] - The iPhone 17 series has significantly contributed to Apple's performance, with over 80% of sales coming from this new lineup, leading to an expected increase in overall sales due to rising average selling prices [5][7] - October marked Apple's best-ever Q4 start, with one in four smartphones sold in China being an iPhone, a feat only previously achieved once in 2022 [7] Market Performance - The iPhone 17 series, including the base, Pro, and Pro Max models, achieved double-digit growth rates in October, with the base model showing the fastest growth [7][9] - OPPO's flagship Find X9 series has performed well, driven by its strong imaging capabilities and large battery capacity, making it the second-largest growth driver in the domestic smartphone market [9] - Xiaomi reached the second position in the domestic market for the first time in over a decade, aided by its strong product lineup, including the Xiaomi 17 series launched during the Mid-Autumn Festival sales peak [9] Future Outlook - Apple's strong sales momentum is expected to continue into November, with the potential for record quarterly performance in December [9] - The upcoming launch of Huawei's Mate 80 series on November 25 poses a potential challenge, but current trends suggest that Apple's growth is robust and unlikely to see significant declines [9]

Core Insights - The iPhone 17 and Xiaomi 17 series are key drivers for growth in their respective brands during the first month of sales [4][5] - Both Apple and Xiaomi experienced similar overall sales growth, with Apple increasing by 22% and Xiaomi by 21% year-on-year [5] Sales Performance - The iPhone 17 series contributed significantly to Apple's sales in China, with nearly 80% of iPhones sold during the period coming from the new series [8] - Xiaomi's early launch of the 17 series effectively supported its smartphone sales, leading to a 21% year-on-year increase [8] Market Trends - The timing of the new product launches before the Mid-Autumn Festival boosted sales compared to the previous year [8] - Consumers are seeking high cost-performance products while also expecting innovative features, which the latest offerings from Apple and Xiaomi fulfill [8] Consumer Behavior - There is a strong demand for the new iPhone models, particularly the standard and Pro versions, driven by a wave of users upgrading from older models post-COVID [10] - Xiaomi's 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max have become the main sales drivers, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards higher-end models [10]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant impact of chip shortages on memory prices, predicting a further increase of approximately 50% by Q2 2026, particularly affecting traditional LPDDR4 [4][5] - Counterpoint Research highlights that memory prices have already risen by 50% this year, with expectations of an additional 30% increase by Q4 2025 and around 20% early next year [5] - The shift in demand towards advanced memory solutions, particularly due to Nvidia's increased need for LPDDR, poses broader risks to the consumer electronics market [5][6] Memory Price Trends - The current market shows a price inversion where DDR5 is trading at approximately $1.50 per Gb, while older DDR4 is priced at $2.10 per Gb, exceeding the $1.70 for advanced HBM3e [5] - Counterpoint forecasts a more than 20% increase in DRAM production from major chip manufacturers by 2026 [6] Advanced Memory Risks - The article emphasizes that the real risk lies in advanced memory, as Nvidia's transition to LPDDR has created a demand comparable to that of large smartphone manufacturers, straining the supply chain [6] - The expected price increase for DDR5 64GB RDIMM DRAM modules is projected to double between Q1 2025 and the end of 2026 due to supply constraints [6] Impact on Smartphone Market - The shortage primarily affects mid to low-end smartphone markets, with potential ripple effects across the entire smartphone and consumer electronics ecosystem [9] - The bill of materials (BOM) costs for smartphones are expected to rise significantly, with some models seeing increases of up to 15%, which could compress profit margins and hinder growth [10] Macro Risks - The industry faces dual pressures from limited capacity and soaring prices, compounded by macro risks such as tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and employment trends, leading to increased uncertainty [10]

Core Insights - The smartphone sales in Western Europe declined by 1% year-on-year in the first two weeks of October, indicating a sluggish regional economy and low consumer confidence [4][5][8] - Xiaomi experienced a 7% decline in sales, impacting overall market performance, while Apple saw a 2% increase in sales driven by the strong performance of the iPhone 17 series [8][9] - Honor's sales dropped by 4% due to the absence of new product launches, although it has been one of the fastest-growing brands in Western Europe [9] Market Performance - In the first two weeks of October, Xiaomi's sales decreased by 7%, attributed to the underperformance of its newly launched 15T series compared to previous models [8][9] - Apple achieved a 2% year-on-year growth, supported by the iPhone 17 series and the introduction of the iPhone Air, which is expected to account for about 10% of the iPhone 17 series sales [8] - Samsung maintained a strong position in the high-end market with a 30% market share, driven by the success of its Galaxy S25 Ultra and S25 models [8] Brand Analysis - Honor's sales decline of 4% is seen as temporary, as the brand has experienced continuous growth for 30 months, largely due to its successful foldable screen products [9] - The overall market performance in Western Europe is affected by Xiaomi's decline, while Apple's strong sales indicate a positive trend for its products [9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the cautious adoption of eSIM technology in China due to regulatory and data security concerns, with a significant breakthrough expected in 2025 when eSIM trials for smartphones will commence [4][5][6]. Group 1: eSIM Technology in China - China has been hesitant to adopt eSIM technology in smartphones due to concerns over user identity verification and network regulation, leading to a preference for dual physical SIM card slots [5]. - The introduction of eSIM is expected to enhance device design by allowing for larger batteries and improved features, as eSIM integration eliminates the need for a SIM card slot [7][9]. Group 2: Market Impact and Projections - The approval of eSIM trials in China marks a new phase for the domestic market, with projections indicating that eSIM smartphones will account for 37% of global smartphone sales by 2025, increasing to 48% by 2026 [11]. - Apple's launch of the iPhone 17 Air, the first iPhone in China to support only eSIM, is anticipated to accelerate the adoption of eSIM technology among local brands and telecom operators [7][11]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The shift towards eSIM is expected to reshape the global smartphone industry, with Chinese manufacturers likely to gain a competitive edge as they adapt to this technology [11]. - As eSIM technology matures and carrier support increases, it is expected to penetrate mid-range and budget devices, moving beyond high-end models [9].

Core Insights - Counterpoint Research's report ranks Singapore as the top AI city globally, followed by Seoul, Beijing, Dubai, and San Francisco in the top five [4][8][9]. Ranking Summary - The report evaluates AI adoption in the world's 100 largest metropolitan areas, scoring each city on a scale of 0 to 100 [6][11]. Regional Highlights - Singapore's success is attributed to government-supported initiatives through organizations like the Singapore AI Association, fostering a vibrant startup ecosystem and strong public-private collaboration in sectors like healthcare and transportation [7][8]. - Seoul ranks second due to active government deployment of AI in healthcare and education, with companies like SK Telecom and Naver innovating in AI services [7]. - Beijing is third, with plans to provide formal AI education to all primary and secondary students starting in 2025 and collaborations with China Unicom and Huawei on "5G+AI" applications [7][8]. - North America leads in AI city development, but China is rapidly catching up, with cities like Wuhan, Chengdu, and Suzhou making significant investments in supercomputing [7][8]. Key Players in AI City Development - Microsoft and Google are identified as major players driving AI city initiatives, focusing on data center development and AI training programs [8][11]. - Huawei excels in promoting AI in telecommunications through its 5G-A technology [8]. - Nvidia's supercomputing facilities in Dallas position it as a leader in global computing power, surpassing Beijing [8][11]. Emerging Cities of Interest - Unexpectedly, Dubai surpassed San Francisco in overall scores due to substantial investments in AI across various economic sectors, including a plan to train 1 million AI engineers [9]. - Riyadh, Bangalore, and Hangzhou are highlighted as rapidly developing AI cities with significant potential [9][12]. Telecommunications Ecosystem - Telecommunications infrastructure is crucial for AI city development, with cities like Beijing deploying 10G fiber and Boston expanding to meet AI computing demands [12]. - Innovations such as GPU-as-a-Service by Singtel and AI-driven network management by STC in Riyadh are examples of how telecom companies are enhancing AI city capabilities [12].

Group 1 - Counterpoint Research is a global market research company focused on the technology ecosystem, providing services to clients ranging from smartphone OEMs to chip manufacturers and large tech companies [7] - The company has a team of experienced analysts covering various roles, offering comprehensive services that include market data, industry insights, and strategic consulting [7] - Core research areas of the company include AI, automotive electronics, consumer electronics, displays, eSIM, IoT, macroeconomics, manufacturing, networking and infrastructure, semiconductors, smartphones, and wearables [7] Group 2 - In Q3 2025, smartphone sales in China decreased by 2% year-on-year, indicating a market adjustment period [6] - The average battery capacity of smartphones in China ranked first globally, with an 11% year-on-year increase in May 2025 [6] - In Q2 2025, the smartphone shipment volume in China fell by 2% year-on-year due to weak demand and reduced subsidies [6] - The Chinese smartphone market is expected to grow year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven by five trends reshaping the competitive landscape [6] - Huawei and Apple achieved strong year-on-year growth in a sluggish market during Q2 2025 [6] - Chinese new energy vehicle companies are expanding their advantages, while foreign brands are accelerating their marginalization [6] - Harman and Bose remain dominant in the global automotive audio market, influenced by the development trends of Chinese car manufacturers and electric vehicles [6] - A survey indicated that users of autonomous taxis in the US and China expect a safer autonomous driving experience [6] - China's share of global display production capacity is projected to reach 75% by 2028 [6] - The WAIC 2025 event revealed significant signals from China's AI giants [6] - The 15th article on GenAI memory solutions discusses the paradox of HBM, China, and AI investment [6]

Group 1 - The core observation is that HONOR is expected to regain its position in the top five smartphone brands in China due to the success of its 400 series and X70 models, despite a 2% year-on-year decline in overall smartphone sales in the first eight weeks of Q3 2025 [5][12]. - In Q2 2025, HONOR achieved a remarkable 42% year-on-year growth, driven by its impressive product lineup, particularly the popular 400 series and Magic 7 series [16]. - The HONOR X70 series stands out in the entry-level market with features like an 8300mAh battery and fast charging, although the overall brand sales saw an 8.1% decline in Q3 2025 [12]. Group 2 - The European smartphone market saw a return to growth in Q2 2025, with HONOR being a standout performer, achieving a 20% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, confirming the success of its full-price product strategy [15][23]. - In the first half of 2024, HONOR's Magic V2 and Samsung Galaxy Z Flip5 each captured over 20% of the foldable smartphone market share, indicating strong competition in this segment [9]. - The Chinese foldable smartphone market experienced a 27% year-on-year growth in 2024, with HONOR securing a significant market share thanks to the strong sales of its Magic Vs 2 and Vs 3 series [35].