由于美国政府债务风险持续上升，穆迪评级公司（Moody's Ratings）于上周五宣布，将美国的主权信用 评级从最高等级Aaa下调至Aa1，并将评级展望从"负面"调整为"稳定"。值得注意的是，此前惠誉评级 （Fitch Ratings）已于2023年，标普全球评级（S&P Global Ratings）早在2011年便已将美国评级下调至 非最高等级。至此，美国已全面失去了全球三大评级机构的最高评级。 穆迪为何下调美国评级？ 穆迪指出，美国历届政府和国会未能就遏制巨额财政赤字达成有效共识。目前正在讨论的财政方案，也未 显示出在未来数年内能实质性削减强制性支出和赤字的可能性。穆迪预计，未来十年，美国赤字将持续扩 大，主要原因在于福利支出上升，而政府收入增长趋于平缓。 报告还指出，若税收和支出结构未作出调整，美国政府的财政灵活性将进一步受限。穆迪预测，到2035 年，包括利息支出在内的强制性支出将占联邦政府总支出的78%，高于2024年的73%。若2017年《减税 与就业法案》全面延续，未来十年将额外增加约4万亿美元的结构性赤字（不含利息），这是穆迪的基准 情境预期。 据其模型估算，美国联邦财政赤字预计将从202 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the performance of private equity funds established between 2013 and 2015, which are now entering a typical exit cycle [1]. Fund Performance Analysis - An analysis of Internal Rate of Return (IRR) distribution across different performance percentiles was conducted, comparing merger funds with non-merger funds to understand their market positioning [3]. - The majority of merger funds have IRRs concentrated in the 8%-14% and 14%-20% ranges, with 63 funds in each category, together accounting for half of all merger funds during this period [8]. - More than half of the merger funds achieved returns above 14%, with some exceeding 26%, while only 33% of non-merger funds reached this level, indicating a higher probability of exceeding 14% returns for limited partners (LPs) investing in merger funds [8]. - Merger funds are viewed as a significant source of long-term excess returns for LPs, demonstrating higher return tendencies even during challenging market conditions such as the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic downturns [8]. Future Outlook - The uncertainty during the COVID-19 period may have impacted various investment strategies differently, with merger funds showing resilience [9]. - As the market gradually recovers, ongoing observation will be necessary to determine if these funds can generate additional positive value and further enhance return averages [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the scenario analysis conducted on investment portfolios in light of concerns over slowing economic growth and rising prices due to tariffs in the U.S. [1] Inflation Scenario - The inflation rate is set to increase by 0.5% and 1%, rising from the current rate of 2.8% to 3.3% and 3.8% respectively, which is incorporated into various inflation scenarios [8] - The analysis utilizes the 5-year zero-coupon bond inflation rate as a factor for stress testing, calculating returns based on its correlation with inflation [8][9] Recession Scenario - The article outlines the potential for a recession, with the Atlanta Federal Reserve predicting negative GDP growth in Q1 2025, raising market concerns despite the absence of current negative GDP data [7] - Historical impacts of various economic recessions are reviewed to establish representative factors for the recession scenario [10] Historical Recession Analysis - The article presents historical return rates during different recession periods, indicating significant declines in stock and high-yield bond returns, while government bonds showed varying performance [11] - Two recession scenarios are defined: mild and severe, with corresponding impacts on asset returns [13] Investment Strategy Impact - The analysis explores how different investment strategies perform under various economic conditions, highlighting that strategies with higher equity allocations tend to underperform during recession scenarios [19] - Core bond strategies demonstrate resilience in mild recession scenarios, mitigating the negative impacts of declining stock returns [19] Conclusion - The article illustrates how to test investment strategies under changing macroeconomic conditions such as rising inflation, recession, or stagflation, emphasizing the use of selected factors and indicators for robust analysis [20]

Group 1 - The core focus of the event is on the latest applications of Gen AI in the financial sector, highlighting real-world case studies from overseas financial institutions [1][3] - The seminar will feature discussions on how FactSet's Gen AI solutions can drive business innovation and enhance operational efficiency through automation and improved analytical outcomes [6] - The event will also address the challenges of rising costs associated with data management and processing in developing Gen AI strategies, showcasing FactSet's DaaS solutions as a means to efficiently access critical financial data [8] Group 2 - The seminar includes a session dedicated to sharing actual use cases of Gen AI by overseas clients, providing innovative insights for domestic financial professionals considering Gen AI applications [7] - The event will take place on June 19, 2025, at the Shangri-La Hotel in Pudong, Shanghai, with a structured agenda including a cocktail reception [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - FactSet has been dedicated to providing high-quality data services to professional financial institutions since its establishment in 1978, continuously investing in real-time market data services and enhancing technology to optimize solutions [1]. Group 1: Event Details - The seminar will focus on FactSet's content, service technology, and successful domestic case studies related to equity and FICC real-time market data [1]. - The event is scheduled for May 20, 2025, starting at 2:00 PM, with the seminar running from 2:30 PM to 5:00 PM, followed by a cocktail reception [5]. Group 2: Agenda Overview - The agenda includes an opening speech, a session on FactSet's real-time market data solutions, a discussion on the unique technical architecture that supports client success, a tea break, and a session on the content and applications of FICC real-time market data [6]. - Key speakers include Dennis Lim, Xiaorong Xu, and Pearleen Tan, who will address various aspects of market data and technology solutions [9][11][13]. Group 3: Data Content Focus - The seminar will cover topics such as U.S. Treasury and repo market data content, the use of hedging tools, and trends in commodity performance analysis [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the insurance industry due to the increasing frequency and severity of catastrophic events, particularly focusing on the impact of the recent California wildfires on insurers, policyholders, and reinsurers [1][3]. Group 1: Catastrophic Events and Insurance Impact - Catastrophic events have become more frequent and severe, with total losses from such events reaching approximately $320 billion last year, and California wildfires alone expected to incur losses of up to $30 billion this year [4]. - Insurers are reassessing their risk models and pricing strategies in response to changing environmental risks, but in California, all premium increase requests must be approved by state insurance regulators, creating tension between insurers seeking to raise premiums and regulators aiming to maintain affordability [4]. - The withdrawal of private insurers, such as State Farm, from the California market due to mismatched premiums and risks could lead to a reliance on government-supported insurance plans, similar to Florida's situation, indicating potential market failure in pricing mechanisms [4]. Group 2: Reinsurance Considerations - Market analysis must also consider reinsurance factors, as primary insurers transfer part of their risk to other insurers. Initial loss reports from primary insurers often do not reflect reinsurance coverage, impacting the cost structure in the reinsurance market [5]. - Increased reinsurance costs for primary insurers due to catastrophic events will likely be passed on to policyholders or reduce the profits of primary insurers [5]. Group 3: Key Questions for Financial Professionals - Financial professionals, including investment bankers and analysts, should focus on three core questions after each catastrophic event: 1. Which companies are affected? 2. To what extent is each company impacted? 3. How might these companies' profits and capital be affected? [6][11] Group 4: Financial Reporting and Analysis Tools - Major insurance companies' earnings calls and press releases are primary sources of financial cost information, with tools like FactSet assisting in analyzing affected companies and the extent of impact [7].

点击图片查看大图 主要结论 聚焦过去一年，我们看到始于2020年3月的趋势仍在继续：待投资金和资产净值加速分化。2019年第四季 度，两者之间的差距约为5,000亿美元。到2024年第二季度，这一差距扩大到了1.2万亿美元。除了2022 年内短暂几个季度走势平稳外，这一趋势自2020年起就未曾中断过。 我们重新审视了全球各地区及各类投资风格的待投资金(dry powder)/资产净值(NAV) 图表分析，旨在揭 示整个市场的近期趋势，并探究影响资金流动关系的深层因素。 虽然我们将这些数据汇总在一张图表上，但资产净值和待投资金并不直接相关，因为它们可能独立发生变 化。根据我们的分析，两者之间的关系会随着时间的推移而变化。纵观过去30年，我们看到了三个变化 阶段：1996年至2009年期间二者成对等态势，然后在2010年产生了差距并在接下来的10年里保持稳定， 接着是新冠疫情后资产净值快速增长并一直持续到现在。 有无数因素会影响这些数据，但若仔细审视图表，就会发现主要因素是2000年到2009年私募市场的整体 增长、2008年的金融危机，以及2020年新冠疫情的消退。 未来展望 如上所述，资产净值的增长在本世纪2 ...

FactSet自1978年成立以来，致力于为专业金融机构客户提供高质量的数据服务，并为此持续在实时行情数 据服务上加大投入，提升技术，不断优化解决方案。本次研讨会将重点介绍FactSet在权益及FICC实时行 情数据的内容、服务技术以及国内成功案例分享，和与会嘉宾共同探讨和挖掘行业最新动向。 FactSet全球行情数据解决方案 日期： 2025年5月20日 开场： 下午2:00 研讨会： 下午2:30-5:00 鸡尾酒会： 下午5:00-6:30 会场 北京市朝阳区光华路1号 北京嘉里大酒店3层 深圳厅 长按二维码报名登记 议程 2:00 – 2:25 报到 2:25 - 2:30 主持：Gloria Jin 2:30 - 3:15 FactSet实时行情数据解决方案 3:15 - 4:00 FactSet独特的技术架构助力客户业务成功 主持：Xiaorong Xu 徐晓戎 4:00 - 4:15 茶歇 开幕致辞 4:15 – 5:00 FICC实时行情数据的内容和应用 主持：Pearleen Tan 陈琬婷 主持：Dennis Lim 林仁亮 实时行情数据——FactSet概述 FactSet实时行情的优势 ...

关于近期股市下跌的原因，分析人士普遍认为与特朗普政府于4月初推出的大范围关税政策密切相关。关 税新政几乎覆盖了所有主要行业，还加剧了美国与中国、加拿大、墨西哥等主要贸易伙伴的摩擦，令投资 者对经济前景倍感忧虑。市场担忧关税会推高企业运营成本、扰乱全球供应链，加之消费者信心走弱，使 企业盈利预期被普遍下调。 与此同时，激进的贸易政策也加剧了美国经济衰退的风险。市场担心，若贸易冲突持续，将拖累经济增 长，压缩企业利润，并推高通胀水平，从而对股市估值构成不利影响。高盛、摩根大通等机构均发出预 警，称美国经济陷入衰退的可能性显著上升。据估算，关税对美国GDP的冲击可能高达3个百分点，政策 反复（例如暂缓征税后又迅速恢复）亦进一步加剧了市场的不确定性和波动性。 另外，过去支撑美股上涨的重要板块——科技股，在本轮下跌中也未能幸免。受中美科技摩擦影响，像英 伟达（Nvidia）等半导体公司面临出口限制，业绩预期承压，成为拖累市场的重要因素。 面对上述种种不利因素，华尔街大行纷纷下调对今年标普500指数的盈利预期。瑞银策略团队指出，美股 短期内可能继续承压，预计未来经济将显著放缓。不过，他们仍预计标普500指数在2025年底 ...

今年3月初，美国总统特朗普宣布针对与加拿大、中国和墨西哥征收新一轮贸易关税。自此之后，各国的 报复性关税或其他经济制裁行动的声明频频登上新闻头条。其中一项报复性关税措施是加拿大安大略省决 定对输美电力征收25%的附加费、威胁完全切断从安大略省输送到美国的所有电力。为回应加拿大此举， 特朗普又在社交媒体上提出要对加拿大增收双倍钢铝关税，将税率提升至 50%。幸运的是，所有这些计 划都已于3月11日暂停实施。然而，所有这些声明以及随后的撤销举动揭示了几个重要问题，例如，加拿 大和美国的电网是如何交织在一起的？美国对加拿大电力的依赖程度如何？这种动态最大的影响在哪？ 点击图片查看大图 尽管美国东北部已然严重依赖加拿大供电，但该地区显然并未打算改变这一趋势。正在建设的四条新输电 线路就可证明这一点，这些线路将使加拿大与NYISO间的输电能力提升至少55%。 回顾过去两年美国与加拿大之间的电力输送情况，加拿大生产的电力一直在补充美国，特别是美国东北部 的 电 力 需 求 。 2025 年 ， 通 过 加 拿 大 魁 北 克 Hydro-Québec TransÉnergie (HQT) 输 送 到 美 国 ISO Ne ...